HART’s must-read report “COVID-19: an overview of the evidence“, written about in Lockdown Sceptics on Thursday, has been making waves today. Former Supreme Court Judge Jonathan Sumption praised it in the Telegraph this morning, and then this afternoon Times Science Editor Tom Whipple did his best to bury it under smears of being anti-vaccine and “extremely irresponsible”.
In a mean-spirited piece that makes no effort to engage with the arguments of the report, Whipple rounds up the usual suspects to heap opprobrium on anything that deviates from the establishment line or raises awkward questions.
Originally headlined “Scientists condemn report claiming vaccines caused second wave deaths”, it now reads “Scientists condemn report questioning role of vaccine in second wave deaths”, presumably after someone pointed out to the editors that the report never makes such a claim but only raises questions based on patterns in data. The report clearly states that “we cannot infer causation from correlation”.
Whipple writes:
Among arguments about the harms caused by lockdown the 50-page document also states that the rollout of the Pfizer vaccine coincided with a large number of deaths and this may not have been a coincidence. “When something in data is this unusual, we have to ask questions, no matter how uncomfortable they may be,” it states, in a chapter written by a “quantitative analyst” called Joel Smalley. “It would be extremely unscientific and even negligent not to investigate whether the rise in deaths during this period is linked in some way to the vaccine rollout.” He suggested the Pfizer vaccine had not been tested sufficiently on older people.
Jeremy Brown, from UCL and a member of the Government’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, said this was “ridiculous”. He pointed to the now extensive real-world data showing the vaccines were safe and reduced deaths. “It is quite conclusively true that the vaccine offers protection in the real world,” he said. Far from killing people, he said, “if you’ve been vaccinated you have around an 85% lower chance of ending up in hospital”.
The rise in deaths was caused by infections, he said, rather than vaccines.
He added that academics should not be endorsing the idea vaccines may be causing mass death. “The only way out of this mess is the vaccine so anything that undermines that is distinctly unhelpful,” he said.
Jonathan Ball, professor of molecular virology at the University of Nottingham, added that to make the link “shows a blatant disregard for the facts” and “is irresponsible in the extreme”.
HART this evening published a response that clarifies they are not making claims so much as raising questions.
While scientists quoted in the article have dismissed HART’s suggestion that there is a possible link between vaccination and COVID-19 infections, it is worth highlighting that earlier this month a study led by Public Health England found a “notable” rise in COVID-19 infections in the over-70s immediately after receiving a vaccine.
We are not asserting that vaccines are the only possible cause of “second wave” cases and deaths. We are not asserting that the vaccines are, in and of themselves, dangerous or deadly. There are many factors at play here. For example, the increased contact from the vaccination programme or from possible relaxation of social distancing following vaccination have been suggested as possible causes for the correlation. It has also been shown that lymphocyte levels fall in the first three days after Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination. The phase two trial of AstraZeneca showed a transient neutropenia in 46% of patients in the vaccine arm (compared to 7% in the control arm). Whether this suppressed immunity sufficiently accounts for increased susceptibility is uncertain. These observations have no bearing on the efficacy of the vaccines which is a separate issue.
They draw attention to a number of studies that show a spike in infections in the days following vaccination: the FDA Pfizer report that found a 40% increase in the vaccinated versus placebo arm in the first week of the trial; an Israeli study reporting a doubling in daily incidence until about eight days after the Pfizer vaccine had been given; a Danish paper showing a 40% increase of COVID-19 in the vaccinated in the first two weeks; and a Public Health England study that noted a 48% increase in Covid in the first nine days after vaccination.
Whipple also takes the report to task for supposedly getting the false positive rate of PCR tests wrong.
The report, which has been backed by other Tory MPs, also states that the false positive rate of Covid tests is 0.8-4%. To support this claim, which contradicts all the real-world evidence, it cites a paper that explicitly says the true rate must be lower.
However, as HART point out in their response, the figure they use is simply the Government’s own current estimate of the false positive rate. If that “contradicts all the real-world evidence” then Whipple should take it up with Public Health England, not HART.
Whipple is also unhappy with the claim that “50% of the population is already immune to the coronavirus”. It appears from the report that this figure is drawn from a review of evidence on pre-existing immunity in the BMJ.
Memory T cells are known for their ability to affect the clinical severity and susceptibility to future infection, and the T cell studies documenting pre-existing reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 in 20-50% of people suggest that antibodies are not the full story.
While these results do not necessarily mean 50% of the population has pre-existing immunity, as Dr Mike Yeadon wrote for Lockdown Sceptics, with COVID-19 one must also factor children into the immune category, and between adults with T cells and children you are getting on for “about 50%”, as HART put it.
Whipple also quibbles with the report’s claim that “there is no evidence the UK variant, which has come to dominate in countries around the world, is more transmissible”. Yet this claim was drawn from a study in Nature headed: “No evidence for increased transmissibility from recurrent mutations in SARS-CoV-2.” The evidence on this may change of course, but it’s worth keeping in mind that science does not proceed by consensus and it is not “irresponsible” to cite peer-reviewed papers to support an alternative point of view.
Having amassed what he presumably regards as conclusive evidence that the report is full of falsehoods and heresy, Whipple attempts to tar others by association for daring to endorse it, including Toby, while the editors obligingly stick a picture of Sir Graham Brady at the top. That’ll teach MPs to think twice before backing anything from the renegade scientists again.
Whipple writes:
The report has found other backers. Jonathan Sumption, the former Supreme Court Judge, described it in the Telegraph as “scrupulously referenced to specialist research”. Toby Young, a journalist and founder of the Lockdown Sceptics website, described it as a “devastating” assessment by “highly qualified” experts.
In contrast Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology at the University of Reading, said the report was “the reverse of science” and “bizarre”, adding that the authors “seem to have worked backwards, deploying only research findings which fit their ideology, or they simply don’t bother with anything so inconvenient”.
“The smearing of some of the current vaccines is particularly egregious,” he said. “It seems calculated to grab attention and frighten people, it could cost lives if anyone were foolish enough to believe it.”
The piece initially went out without a comment from HART, though one was later added:
A spokesperson for HART said, “In HART’s recently published overview of COVID-19 evidence, we noted that the January peak in Covid cases and deaths correlated both in time and geographically with the mass roll-out of the novel vaccines. However, HART is mindful that correlation does not always equal causation and we are not asserting that vaccines are the cause.”
At Lockdown Sceptics we are acutely aware that, as far as the Government and much of the public is concerned, as Jeremy Brown said, “the only way out of this mess is the vaccine”. That’s why we support the (voluntary, obviously) vaccination programmes and would never discourage anyone from getting a vaccine if that is what they consider to be right for them and their health. However, we also believe in free enquiry, and scientists raising questions, and exploring potential trends in data to see what they might be telling us – and we don’t think that that is irresponsible, pandemic or no pandemic. On the contrary, the irresponsible thing is to close down scientific enquiry for the sake of a questionable “greater good”.
Stop Press: Whipple’s article is headlined: “Scientists condemn report questioning role of vaccine in second wave deaths.” But not all scientists, it seems. A woman describing herself as a “scientist” at UCL wrote this Rapid Response in the BMJ on Monday: “After the initiation of vaccine programme, almost all countries experienced a sudden surge of transmission and most countries had to impose strict lockdown measures.”
Stop Press 2: Hector Drummond was unimpressed with Whipple’s mudslinging, tweeting: “The establishment is badly rattled. This is a hatchet job of unprecedented partisanship by the Times‘ tame science lapdog Tom Whipple. They’d prefer to say nothing about HART’s report, but have been forced to attack it because it is getting noticed.”
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Whipple and Triggle are as bad as each other.The BBC have never had a less convincing health correspondent.
Whipple’s education and working history tell you all you need to know about his total lack of competence to be a ‘Science Correspondent’
AKA Prophet of doom/Doctor death.
Wouldn’t this site be doing everyone a favour by educating why the vaccine is not the way out of this mess? It seems from this mornings latest news that the UK government intends to stop all travel until at the earliest July , possibly September. This is despite deaths with covid19 registering only 17.
Apparently the 3rd wave will sweep in from mainland Europe. However all causes excess deaths in Europe are now below trend , in France which is about to go on the red list, it is well below trend.
It is the continuing psyop run by most anglosphere and european governments that is creating the crisis. Taking an emergency use novel vaccine is not necessary. All that is required is stopping the cumulative use of misleading statistics and ending the 24/7 propoganda.
However the truth is, as the editors of this site must be well aware, this is not happening because the government and its advisors and backers want to force the vaccine on the population as the only means to restore some semblance of freedom. The very real possibility is that even with a high uptake of the vaccine those freedoms will never be restored.
Another casedemic. Why are deaths and hospitalisation not the only metric that matters? Oh that’s right because we have to put an experimental mnra fluid into the entire population. Why does anyone especially the enlightened people on LS be forced to listen to a know nothing tool like raspberry ripple? Why would anybody be surprised that a fully paid up member of this dictatorship is making these comments? Stop putting this crap as headlines. We know what he thinks. This should be treated with the same level of surprise as a football manager blaming the ref after they lose.
Are you suggesting that he and the rest of us sceptics don’t love Big Boris; sorry: Brother, et al?
“the only way out of this mess is the vaccine”
This is so wrong. What if they hadn’t managed to create a vaccine? Lockdown forever?
The way out of this is to revert to the pandemic response plan in place before March 23rd 2020. ie follow the science
And the logic, even on its own merits, is misleading. It is not “vaccine”, it’s “vaccines”. Looking like at least 3 trips at least per year to the permanent town vaccination centre. Possibly more.
For the foreseeable. Relentless propaganda and Nuremburg busting laws to maintain uptake throughout. If this is the way out, then its utterly dystopian
You are so right Steve. Why are they still pedalling this bullshit view. Have they missed whats going on in Florida? How has the experimental mrna fluid helped all the youngsters who are currently banging the life out of each other with no effect? The ONLY people who need this fluid in their arm are people whose immune system is compromised by illness or age. The rest of us have NO reason to have their immune system genetically altered. I have got to 61 without any problems why would something, that to me is like a mild flu be a reason to take part in the biggest science experiment in history?
We should be outraged that under new travel restrictions owners of overseas foreign properties will be allowed to visit them to prepare them for sale or rental.
Surely someone around Johnson must realise what an invitation to take the piss this is ?
Any old spiv with a flop house in Majorca can just turn up at Stansted with a bottle of Cif and a pair of Marigolds claiming to be about to prepare their ‘property’ for rental.
Let’s hope this finally sinks bozo and his unlovely gang.
Great post we are outraged!!!!!
RECHTSANWALT
DDr. Renate holzeisen
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ACTION FOR ANNULMENT according to Art. 263 TFEU
To Everyone I have the link for this it is 52 pages long but you can scan through and find everything you need to know.
Just one paragraph but of course there’s an awful lot more.
Evidence from John P A Ioannidis (Meta-Research Innovation Center at Standford – METRICS – Stanford University), one of the ten most cited scientists in the world (in the field of medicine arguably the most cited scientist in the world), has ranked the mortality rate of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 in the range of that of influenza as early as March 2020 (Doc. A. 6). In a peer-reviewed study published in the Bulletin of the World Health Organization on October 14, 2020; Type: Resarch Article ID: BLT.20.265892 (Doc. A.7), Ioannidis demonstrated that the worldwide panic at the end of January 2020 regarding an alleged high mortality rate associated with SARS-Cov-2 infection was and is simply unfounded.