Month: December 2020

by Jonny Peppiatt The research: While those who oppose lockdowns have rigorously sought to justify their position with research – and can reference tens of studies as to the lack of efficacy of lockdowns (or stringent measures under different names) – the Government has been capable only of publishing one graph in their cost-benefit analysis of the tiers which appeared to show a correlation between Tier 3 measures and a reduction in cases (since discredited). The use of data: While those who oppose lockdowns have analysed all data in as close to real time as possible, the ‘data’ used to justify lockdowns have been cherry-picked and often predictive, while being based on spurious assumptions that have repeatedly been proved inaccurate. The source and balance of information: While those who oppose lockdowns possess no bias in obtaining their information, the Government is informed on the risks by a number of committees (Sage, Nervtag, SPI-M) whose sole responsibility is to consider the virus and present the risks of that virus. The expertise of sources: While those who oppose lockdowns have been entertained by commentators, cartoonists, comedians, and so on, they have been informed by scientists and medical professionals (Gupta, Heneghan, Spector, Yeadon, Craig, et al.). The Government, however, has a disturbing proportion of social scientists or behavioural scientists (with no relevant expertise) ...

Happy Boxing Day! The second of three Christmas cartoons Bob Moran has done for Lockdown Sceptics For the three days over Christmas – starting yesterday – we’re publishing a pared down version of Lockdown Sceptics so we can have a bit of time off over Christmas. Cartoonist Bob Moran has very kindly given us three original cartoons which we’re running on consecutive days and, below them, we’re including a round-up, as well as an And Finally…, but little else. Happy Christmas to all our readers. Thanks for all your links, stories and suggestions, as well as your comments below the line and in the forums. Lockdown Sceptics is really a collaboration between our small team, the writers who contribute original material, and the readers who post comments or email us at lockdownsceptics@gmail.com. To date, we’ve had over 21,000 emails and we do our best to read them all. Back in April, when I set up this blog, I imagined I’d be signing off about now. Turns out, that was a bit naive. God knows when this madness will end, but at least there are some comforts in this digital camaraderie. Readers often get in touch to say Lockdown Sceptics has kept them sane. The feeling’s mutual. Trouble Down Lab The Milton Keynes Lighthouse Lab has been hit by an outbreak ...

Happy Christmas! The first of three Christmas Bob Moran cartoons exclusive to Lockdown Sceptics For the three days over Christmas – starting today – we’re publishing a pared down version of Lockdown Sceptics so we can have a bit of time off over Christmas. Cartoonist Bob Moran has very kindly given us three original cartoons which we're running on consecutive days and, below them, we're including a round-up, as well as an And Finally…, but little else. Happy Christmas to all our readers. Thanks for all your links, stories and suggestions, as well as your comments below the line and in the forums. Lockdown Sceptics is really a collaboration between our small team, the commenters and the people who email us at lockdownsceptics@gmail.com – like Mitesh B. Karia, who sends us dozens of links to interesting articles every day. To date, we’ve had over 21,000 emails and we do our best to read every one. Back in April, when Toby set up this blog, he imagined he’d be signing off about now. Turns out, that was a bit naive. God knows when this madness will end, but at least there are some comforts in this digital camaraderie. Readers often get in touch to say Lockdown Sceptics has kept them sane. The feeling’s mutual. Is the London surge ending already? From the ZOE Covid App report on December 24th The ...

An analysis of the March 14th 'Open Letter' from U.K. scientists calling on the Government "to take stronger measures of social distancing" (i.e. Lockdown). Among various news outlets, the Guardian rapidly publicised the open letter by a group of "scientists" calling for a lockdown in an article on the March 14th. 245 UK scientists including those from Oxford, Cambridge, Imperial College, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Sanger Institute, and the Francis Crick Institute, had signed; Including Professors, Lecturers and Researchers in the fields of Immunology, Biology, Medicine and Complex Systems. The resulting media frenzy, together with Imperial Colleges computer model predictions, appeared to have the desired effect of causing a Government U-turn and the first of many lockdowns. The letter appears to have originated from the School of Mathematical Sciences, Queen Mary College London, and is posted on the Queen Mary server. On closer inspection the first 245 UK signatories are made up of the following: 54 (22%) from Queen Mary (of which 42 are from the School of Mathematical Sciences including the first nine signatories)* 41 from Cambridge University22 from Imperial College8 from the Sanger Institute4 from Oxford University2 from LSHTM (neither is a medical doctor. one is also a honorary Research Associate at Imperial)1 from Francis Crick Institute (Theoretical Physics of Biology Lab) The remaining ...

Happy Christmas! For the next three days – starting tomorrow – I'll be publishing a pared down version of Lockdown Sceptics so I can have a bit of time off over Christmas. Cartoonist Bob Moran has very kindly given me three original cartoons which I'm going to run on consecutive days and, below them, I'll include a round-up, as well as an And Finally..., but little else. Happy Christmas to all our readers. Thanks for all your links, stories and suggestions, as well as your comments below the line and in the forums. Lockdown Sceptics is really a collaboration between our small team, the commenters and the people who email us at lockdownsceptics@gmail.com – like Mitesh B. Karia, who sends us dozens of links to interesting articles every day. To date, we've had over 21,000 emails and we do our best to read every one. Back in April, when I set up this blog, I imagined I'd be signing off about now. Turns out, that was a bit naive. God knows when this madness will end, but at least there are some comforts in this digital camaraderie. Readers often get in touch to say Lockdown Sceptics has kept them sane. The feeling's mutual. Oxfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Suffolk join London and Kent in Tier 4 In a last-minute Christmas gift, ...

by Rudolf Kalveks Since the onset of autumn it has become increasingly clear that SARS-CoV-2 (‘coronavirus’) epidemics cannot generally be analysed as waves with single peaks. The virus, which had largely disappeared from Europe by the middle of summer, made a comeback during the autumn. So, what conclusions should we draw about coronavirus dynamics from the historic time series data? And do these justify ongoing Government responses? Figure 1. Cumulative Death Statistics for Selected Countries. Cumulative coronavirus deaths, expressed as a percentage of country populations, are plotted on a logarithmic scale, as time series up to December 21st, 2020. Source: Worldometer. As previously, we focus on the ‘Canaries in the Mine’, or the coronavirus death statistics for a selection of European and other countries, published by Worldometer. It has been shown that these statistics exaggerate the impact of the coronavirus. Several countries classify deaths simply according to the presence of coronavirus, rather than apportioning causation to other contributing pathologies. This problem is compounded by the PCR test, which is notorious for false positives (as discussed elsewhere). Nonetheless, the death statistics are considerably more relevant than the ‘cases’ identified by PCR tests alone (which continue to provide the basis for much of the prevailing government and media narrative). Before proceeding, it is helpful to recap the coronavirus fatalities for our selection ...

"High Chance" of Lockdown 3 in New Year Bob's cartoon from the Telegraph ahead of Lockdown II With full-on panic setting in within Government over the new "mutant super-strain" of coronavirus, sources have been briefing that new lockdowns are coming to the UK. The Telegraph has the details. A swathe of areas hit by surging coronavirus rates are likely to be placed into Tier 4 restrictions from Boxing Day, ministers will announce on Wednesday. Ministers are expected to sign off plans for tougher measures for many areas at a meeting of the Covid-O operations committee as concern grows about the virus mutation spreading from the South-East.Government sources have warned that there is a "high chance" of a full national lockdown in the New Year.On Tuesday, Britain recorded 691 Covid deaths – the second highest daily toll since last May and a jump of 20% in one week – while daily cases reached 36,804, the highest number recorded yet.Under the Boxing Day measures, the worst-hit places will be plunged into Tier 4 – a "stay home" measure akin to lockdown that was introduced in London and much of the South-East earlier this week – and many areas in the lower tiers could be moved to Tier 3, forcing the closure of all pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops. It's not clear whether the reference to non-essential shops closing is an editorial mistake or a ...

by Neville Hodgkinson HIV-infected H9 T-cell An awesome, sinister sense of déjà vu grows by the day. Suddenly, a second variant of the COVID-19 virus is said to be rampaging across Britain, just in time to create utter seasonal chaos and ensure that the loving spirit of Christmas does not obscure the fear we are all supposed to be experiencing. It was much the same 35 years ago, when a panic over AIDS was being talked up by scientists to global proportions and an HIV variant, HIV-2, suddenly caught the headlines. The new purported villain added to the fear and led to an era in which any ideas or evidence as to the cause of AIDS that did not keep HIV centre stage were ruled out of order. That was despite some experts, including top-ranking Nobel prize-winning scientists at the heart of the fight against AIDS, trying to let us know that HIV had never been established as the cause of the syndrome. They showed that both predictions of spread, and tests claiming to show infection with the virus, were invalid. As now, an epidemic of inappropriate testing led to a false impression of a pandemic. Models predicting near-universal spread bore no relation to actual illness and death, which remained confined to relatively small sections of the population who had ...

Border Chaos Continues Peter Schrank's cartoon in yesterday's Times The list of countries restricting or banning travel from the UK today grew to over 40, including much of continental Europe. The international responses to the new 'variant' of the virus range from outright bans to new self-isolation requirements regardless of a negative PCR test (as in the case of Greece). The border closures are not all limited to UK travellers either. Sweden has banned visitors from Denmark as well as the UK, and Saudi Arabia has slammed its borders shut completely. The knee-jerk actions are reminiscent of the early phase of the pandemic, where country after country copied each other's panicky lockdowns. It deals yet another blow to the ailing travel and airline industries, as cancelled flights out of the UK number in the hundreds and climbing. Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a press conference yesterday and scarcely mentioned the unfolding travel bans. Instead, he focused on the ongoing issues at the Dover-Calais crossing, insisting that the blockade would be resolved in a matter of hours after a conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes in today's Telegraph, closing the UK-France border is just another exercise in closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Emmanuel Macron’s ban on lorries entering France wins the prize for the ...

"Out of Control" Doing the rounds on the Sunday morning's Politics shows, Matt Hancock gave his prognosis for the future of the Tier system and the mutant strain of COVID-19. He did not give the impression of having a grip on the situation. The MailOnline has the details. Matt Hancock today warned the new mutant strain of coronavirus is "out of control" as he suggested draconian Tier 4 restrictions could be in place "until we have the vaccine rolled out". The Health Secretary said people in Tier 4 areas should behave as if they are infected in order to combat the new variant of the disease which spreads quicker than its predecessor. Mr Hancock said the new strain can be caught "more easily from a smaller amount of the virus being present" as he confirmed areas subject to the toughest restrictions are likely to be in the top tier for the long haul. The Cabinet minister said "we have got a long way to go to sort this" and it will be "very difficult to keep it under control until we have the vaccine rolled out".Mr Hancock said the increased risk posed by the new variant meant existing measures to combat the spread of the disease, like wearing face masks and social distancing, would have to be stepped up. "All of the different measures ...