As we've come to expect from LSHTM and epidemiology in general, their latest model calling for stringent restrictions to save the NHS is un-scientific and contains severe problems making its predictions worthless.
"The ONS survey results on prevalence shows that the Scottish and English approach to masking although formally different since July has made no meaningful difference to Delta" – Prof Jim Naismith
Why are some countries surging this autumn but others aren't? India had a big Delta surge but has seen no new rise since, while the impact of Delta on Sweden has been very modest. Why is that?
A late autumn surge in reported Covid infections is underway in Europe, despite high vaccine coverage and the heavy use of vaccine passports. So what does the winter have in store?
China is experiencing its most severe outbreak since Wuhan, with the Government's extreme zero-Covid strategy seemingly doing little to curb the spread of the virus.
A new study has discovered that vaccination status has no impact on household transmission of the Delta variant.
With only up to 10% greater transmissibility, the latest variant being reported in the news is nothing to worry about.
In early August, writing for the Daily Sceptic, Prof Anthony Brookes made some predictions about how the next few months would pan out. He got them all right, underlining the accuracy of his Covid picture.
In August, modellers predicted a third wave in India peaking around now that has wholly failed to appear. Has any model yet succeeded in predicting the course of the pandemic?
Acknowledging that variants drive surges is not to buy into fear of 'scariants' but to see why peaks and falls have little or nothing to do with imposing or lifting restrictions.
