A late autumn surge in reported Covid infections is underway in Europe, with spikes in Austria, Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland and Norway, and the possible beginnings of one in France, Portugal and Italy. This is despite high vaccine coverage and the heavy use of vaccine passports in most of these countries including Germany, Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Italy and France.
Some of this is at least partly a result of ramping up testing, especially in Austria and Denmark.
Denmark’s positive test rate is currently flat (see below). This is despite the country declaring the pandemic over and abandoning vaccine passports in September. However, due to the climbing reported infection rate, the country’s Parliament is now said to be preparing to return to a state of emergency and reactivate the vaccine pass scheme, despite the rise being so far largely an artefact of increased testing.
Elsewhere, however, the positive rate is also rising, suggesting real Covid and not just a testing artefact.
Most of these places already had a summer Delta surge of varying sizes, and there is no new variant being reported, so this appears to be primarily seasonal, and is still all Delta.
Will it dip again before winter, like it did in many countries last year, and has already in the U.K? December is usually the peak month for winter flu-like illness, so we will be following it closely.
In the U.K., it’s worth noting that in the five-year (2015-19) average of deaths there is a mini-bump in October that declines slightly at the start of November, just as there is this year and there was last year (see circled areas of graph below).
However, in the five-year average, deaths then rise again in mid-November, before spiking at the turn of the year, and Covid deaths followed a similar pattern last year. Will it repeat the pattern this year? If it does we should expect infections and then deaths to begin rising soon, gently at first and then surging in December. It’s hard to see why this year should be different, save for the immunity we have built up over the past two years. How much difference will that make? Will the vaccinated continue to experience suppressed death rates compared to the unvaccinated, or will time and winter change that?
Whatever turns out to be the case, the NHS has no excuse not to be ready this year, so there can be no justification for renewed restrictions.
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The title of the article is a bit misleading.
1) without test negative case control(TNCC), one would simply naively compare the cases per 100k in vaccinated people with cases per 100k in unvaccinated people(job done BUT:)
2) Doing that with the released ONS/UKHSA data would falsely show the vaccines have a negative efficacy, i.e. they cause you to have covid19, which is impossible.
3) Prof spiegelhalter complained in a tweet this makes no sense, since large supervised trials show vaccines are definitely around 90% effective in the months following vaccination.
4) Hence there must be some difference between the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, which makes one group (the vaccinated ) more likely to come forward and be tested, hence finding more cases in the vaccinated than one should find if selection were random.
5) to try to fix this, the samples compared should be restricted to people who have been tested.They must either have a positive result or a negative one.Those with no result (i.e. no test) are dropped from the calculation.Hence a person’s reluctance or eagerness to be tested is no longer an issue, the comparison only concerns those who did get tested.
6) The title of the article… Read more »
you mean respiratory viruses increase when Vit D absorption is at its lowest and the seasons have just changed. Hold the front page, this is immense news.
In other words. It will go up and come back down. Vaxx people will get infected like unvaxxed and potentially get it worse for their troubles.
Vaxx passes won’t make a bit of difference to the alleged infections.
This is a pandemic of testing and nothing more.
Also, when is this declared as endemic. Surely it is already. This will never go away.
Joel Smalley was permanently suspended on Twitter for pointing out over and over, countries highly vaxxed, cases just keep going up. Anyone notice what is happening in the U.K.? While other countries are stopping the boosters, they can’t get them out quick enough here.
“Elsewhere, however, the positive rate is also rising, suggesting real Covid and not just a testing artefact.”
But still, no concordance on the number of cycles each country or for that matter, laboratory, are running their PCR tests at.
Has anyone looked to see if there is a relationship between reinfection and what particular ” vaccine” the majority have been ‘exposed’ to?
Okay super late to the comments and have read a good 70% so sorry if repeating someone but it’s seems from all the data (eg HIV autoimmune status tests before and after jab through to high active infections/vaccinations correlation) the jab definitely lowers the immune system, definitely makes you more vulnerable to the virus because it protects against spike only in wild type (ie destroys protection against delta variant) and likely sheds more pay load of the virus. Here’s the thing – nearly everyone I know who was double jabbed is now getting C-19 or has got it since being jabbed only and ALL the people I know NOT vaccinated – except for one- (and that’s quite a few people) have never got c-19 and have remained healthy the entire ‘pandemic’. I had one jab and got sick and refused the other and I recently got a bout of bacterial pneumonia (officially ‘not c-19). I swear to God (if I believed) that my immune system has been fucked about with and have now detoxed and feel a lot better. Is this the merry go round… vaccines=virus=vaccines=virus… until we all die.
I fear that this comment will age well
Bullshit , completely meaningless tests produce completely meaningless data (which has been going on since day 1 of the EVIL charade)……Garbage in, Garbage out!!
“I must not use the words ‘case’ or ‘infection’ for a bogus positive test result.”
Now stay behind after school and write this out 500 times.
And the idea that cases = infection is erroneous, given the methods used. Made up figures, most likely.
Oh well. Looks like Christmas in the speakeasy again.
The ongoing COVID-19 nonsense here in the United States exists solely and exclusively because our governments have failed to use the correct treatment. They used so-called “vaccines” when Japan has just proven, in less than ONE MONTH, that Ivermectin can wipe out the disease. IVM was awarded the Nobel prize for medicine in 2015. One of the 3 most important drugs in human history: Aspirin, Penicillin, and Ivermectin. Get your Ivermectin today while you still can! https://ivmpharmacy.com
Maybe next year the calendar can be simplified: after Locktober comes Lockember (2 months), followed by Lockuary (another 2 months).
Lest we get too self-congratulatory – reported UK cases have increased every day for the last five days. In Daily Mail speak – today’s figure of 42,408 is 14% higher than a week ago. I see Mail on-line reports it as Daily UK Covid cases rise for first time in 10 days – weird what you can do with statistics.
The number of cases reported in the last 7 days has been decreasing continously since November 1st until yesterday and the number for today (242,203) is 12% lower than that of a a week ago (275,264). In other words, the people controlling the testing regime have put another heroic effort into saving their beloved illusion of a pandemic after another attempt at reaching the long-promised 100,000 cases per day faltered unceremoniously.
But despair not, dear connoisseur of the quixotic corona charade — the kids are back in school and soon, we should again see surging cases in force-tested healthy pupils used to fuel another attempt at forcing people to buy Chinese throwaway masks!
Consider yourself glad that I have no children forced to be the prey of you vultures.
It is a good point that the 7 day smoothed average has only just begun to rise, and that is somewhat reassuring. Why you think the people controlling the testing regime have put another heroic effort into saving their beloved illusion of a pandemic is beyond me. The level of testing has, if anything, slightly declined.
I promise you, the last thing I want is the numbers to rise again.
For as long as mass testing of healthy people is still being performed, we’re dealing with a manufactured pandemic, the best proof of that being that mass testing of healthy people is at all possible — if there was anything resembling a public health emergency, resources would have to be poured into that instead of into whole-population-bullshitting.
Apart from that, I don’t have any information how exactly the bullshit pandemic is being fabricated but considering that the Covidians have been caught red-handed lying whenever it was possible to compare something which came from them with the truth, I have absolutely no doubt that it is being manufactured — Die Katze läßt das Mausen nicht.
(English: The leopard doesn’t change it’s spots.)
I propose that infection charts are presented with “Capone – Oh No” playing in the background while the camera zoom in on each beat.
For as long as billions of $currency are burnt to fire the testing pandemic, there’ll be a pandemic of positive test results. Especially, if test labs have to meet a positives quota as they risk their government funding being removed when The Experts[tm] don’t like the outcome. If this colossal waste of public money goes on for the next ten years, so will the expertly organized pandemic.
Quel surpris… vax doesn’t work snd neither does the passport… well lockdowns and masks didn’t fucking work either so what is to be expected…??
it’s not about the “virus”, it’s not about the “vaccines”….
you will own nothing and you will be happy
Why no Sweden on this graph Daily Skeptic?
Obviously Sweden has won
COVID-19 Data Explorer – Our World in Data
It’s f.ing autumn, FFS!
… and ‘CASES’ ?????????????. Do we really have to keep seeing this inaccurate metric?
… and remember how, last year, there was a sudden startling rise in mortality in many locations following the introduction of the Jabberwock to the vulnerable – just after a downturn?
Vaccinated : ‘suppressed death rates’ ??? When there is no accurate control data?
There as a surge in covid deaths when they started rolling out the jabs, obviously these deaths were caused by the jabs but the deaths were classed as unvaxxed deaths because you need two doses of poison to be classed as vaxxed [convenient rules].
We can expect a surge in deaths as they kill more people off with the booster.
There as a surge in covid deaths when they started rolling out the jabs, obviously these deaths were caused by the jabs
In Europe? Where? When?
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/denmark-re-impose-ccp-virus-restrictions-after-ditching-all-rules-2-months-ago-prime
They are spouting outright lies as facts. Purely Orwellian:
“If we are to avoid closures of schools and the rest of society, we need to get ahead of things, and it is proven that both corona-pass and face masks work against infection spread,”
“In a Sunday Facebook post, Frederiksen claimed that COVID-19 is spreading from unvaccinated people to elderly people and at-risk people who have been vaccinated, although she did not provide evidence for her assertion.”
Its called the onset of winter! But like the spread of covid, the cretinous governments of europe (with the exception of sweden), think they can stop that too. New slogan, we are cancelling winter to save the f**king nhs!
‘Due to limited testing, the number of confirmed cases is lower than the true number of infections.’
Bollocks. Due to an unreliable assessment tool, the number of cases almost certainly exceeds the number of infections!
Load of innumerate bolleaux. Look at the axes, 800 per million people in top graph. So 80 per 100000 people, 8 per 10000 people. So less than 1 per 1000 people. Now think of a school with 1000 pupils. How many off sick with some sort of sniffle on any random day? I would bet a large fish supper there would be a few in each year group in winter, certainly at least 10 over the whole school, ie an order of magnitude higher than the “shocking figures” in the graph.
They’ve monetized the common cold, brilliant piece of entrepreneurial activity, but it shafts the rest of us forever.
This article looking at sub-lineage variants indicates a different picture of mutations evading vaccines causing the increases & that these differ throughout the continent.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.01.21265749v1.full
I remember way way back at the beginning of all this nonsense when the UK government had, to date, not fallen victim to the panic but all of the bedwetters were pointing at other countries and saying how much better they were doing, and I said on the pages of The Guardian that we would need to wait two years until the virus had done two full winter seasons everywhere before we could pass judgement on who had done “well” and “badly”.
And I also said that almost certainly the outcome would be very similar in most countries regardless of what measures governments took.
And here we are.
The idea that there are some problems for which “more Government” and “more globalism” isn’t a solution is a difficult one for people to accept but it is the truth.
The few countries which have done well in the world are those which have not adopted draconian measures, kept their populations calm, and have a relatively decentralised healthcare model with those responsible at arms length from politics and the media.
In fact here is my comment from July 2020.
Why were there no articles by actual journalists saying this 18 months ago?
I suppose we are the “actual journalists” now.
Well done. Sorry to be a bit pedantic, but I guess that in the G “quite possibly ever” should have been “quite possibly never”, which is entirely possible. After all, it’s just over 32 years since the old “common cold unit” closed down, and so far no effective product that could be used as a ‘vaccine’ against the other coronaviruses or rhinoviruses has been produced. The trial products are only “emergency use authorisation” ones, after all.
Poland seems to be using the testing regime sensibly. Low and decreasing infections however extremely high (comparatively) positve test outcomes.
So perhaps fewer tests used to confirm a diagnosis based intially on symptoms is the sensible way to go, just like the test manufacturers recommend.
Maybe we should only test people who are actually ill?
Or not bother testing people at all…. no point in trying to stop the spread now, the virus is everywhere.
Just a thought.
What’s the point to test people who are already ill?
What are these jabs doing? Why do Govts continue to insist they are beyond necessary? Why is dragging out the ‘pandemic’ and maintaining wholly unnecessary emergency powers, so important?
Money, money, money. Not for our benefit, a cynic might observe.
the countries doing the least tests per 1000 have the greatest percentage of positives from tests done. Does that not suggest that the countries doing the least tests are mainly testing symptomatic people and the countries doing mass testing are mainly testing the healthy.
It does, and it also indicates that comparing one with another is meaningless statistically.
The proportion of cases testing positive is sort of interesting but still lacks context. For each country are they testing for screening? Clinically diagnosis of symptomatic cases only? What criteria before allowing tests? LFT included?
without knowing that, it’s still hard to compare them.
I blame the unvaccinated. I think they should be rounded up and executed for being so selfish to the rest of humanity. Get rid of the unvaccinated and watch the cases fall? (I am of course being sarcastic).
Sweden?
“Infections”? “Confirmed cases”?
You cannot have a meaningful conversation with someone talking complete gibberish.