The latest UKHSA Vaccine Surveillance report, containing data for the month ending December 12th, brings mixed news on the vaccines. First the bad news. Unadjusted vaccine effectiveness based on the raw reported infection rates is still negative for all aged between 18 and 70 (see above). In fact, it’s gone negative for the first time in 18-29 year-olds, down to minus-10.1%, after a sharp drop in the last week. A negative vaccine effectiveness means the infection rate per 100,000 people is higher in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. This means that vaccine passports and vaccine mandates will be ineffective at preventing transmission, and indeed it implies that the vaccinated are actually a higher transmission risk than the unvaccinated. Far from protecting the vaccinated from the unvaccinated, then, as much current policy seems intended to do, perhaps the unvaccinated should be wary of the company of the vaccinated. For those in their 40s in particular, unadjusted vaccine effectiveness is minus-119%, meaning the vaccinated are more than twice as likely to be carrying the virus as the unvaccinated.
The goods news, however, is that the boosters appear to be having a significant impact. Unadjusted vaccine effectiveness has been rising in the older age groups for some weeks, and is now solidly positive in the over-70s, albeit at a not-very-impressive 39.5% in 70-79 year-olds and 53.3% in the over-80s. That this rise is likely due to the third doses is indicated by the fact it has occurred in staggered fashion in each age group, apparently in line with when boosters were rolled out.
What appears to be the case to the casual eye has been put more rigorously to the test by Dr. Richard J. Booth, a retired civil servant with a Ph.D. in mathematical statistics. In a new piece published by the Daily Sceptic today, Dr. Booth undertakes statistical analysis to compare the booster rollout rates in each age group with the changes in the relative reported infection rates to see if there is any correlation over time. He explains:
It occurred to me that since the third doses have been deployed at different rates in the different age groups, it might be possible to observe, and analyse, a ripple of decreasing infection rates from older to younger people over the last few weeks. So I developed a statistical model for infection rates, including a value dependent on the week (because the epidemic progresses at a rather unpredictable rate from week to week), and a week-dependent value proportional to the number of people who two or more weeks earlier had had the third dose compared with the number having had at least the first dose. I divided out the infection rate data by its value in the first week, to put the different age ranges on the same footing.
He concludes that what appeared to be the case is validated by his model, and the booster rollout correlates well with the changes in relative infection rates.
I conclude that though three doses of vaccines may have been effective from the outset, statistical support for that proposition via these sources did not become apparent until week 44’s data was published, when nearly half of over 80’s had had boosters two or more weeks earlier, but has been sustained since then. Of course, ‘statistical support’ is not a cast-iron proof, as correlation is not causation and there might be ‘unknown unknowns’ at work. Nevertheless it is highly suggestive that the prior statistical work on Covid vaccines is vindicated here.
While not all readers will follow every detail in Dr. Booth’s thorough and technical article, it is well worth checking out.
There are signs of a similar rise in vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation and death, which remain reassuringly high on this data.
The percentage of Covid hospital admissions in the unvaccinated has also been creeping up. While, contrary to what many claim, the unvaccinated still constitute a minority of Covid hospital admissions, the percentage has grown in the past month from 32.6% to 42.9%.
The booster success story is a double-edged one, however, as the sharp rise in unadjusted vaccine effectiveness since the rollout only underlines how poorly the two doses were performing only a few months after being administered. That the booster effect is showing up in the data indicates the data is telling us something meaningful about the vaccines. But that cuts both ways, as it means the negative vaccine effectiveness frequently showing up in the same data is also likely to be telling us something important.
If boosters are indeed boosting vaccine effectiveness, dragging the unadjusted rates up from below zero where they had long settled, the obvious question is: How long is the booster going to work for? How often are people going to have to have these injections? At the moment, there looks to be no end in sight. Since there are serious questions about the safety of the vaccines and their overall impact on mortality, the prospect of having two per year may, for many, become an increasingly unwelcome one.
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Boosters are working at prolonging this futile agony. Both hammers and steamrollers crush grapes. But the wine of freedom is still not flowing.
Is there a protest march tomorrow? Anyone know?
A rather large one meeting in parliament square I believe…. anyone know the route?
It starts at 12 noon Parliament Square. The route has in the past tended to be kept secret until the last minute, but usually moves through Oxford Street at some point. Expect many mainline trains into London to be cancelled (surprise!) and problems on tubes. Best to arrange to go there early, to allow time for alternative routes into London, and walking to PS. We’re going very early and having breakfast/brunch in London.
I envy you. Too old toparticipate, but I will be their in spirit
It’s not ‘good news’ that the boosters ‘seem to be having significant impact’. That’s insane thinking. If you’ve already just showed that these ‘vaccines’ effectiveness drops away to less than zero after a couple of months, then it can’t be good to take it again, and again and again. Obviously something is happening with these vaccines, even if it is beyond the sciencey ability of the entire medical establishment to figure this out. They are degrading the immune system. So it’s not good news. It’s shocking news, and is creating a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions.
I’ll openly admit I have had 2 vaccinations. My own personal choice – as it should be. However I’m definitely not talking a 3rd. Time to utilise natural immunity which is the actual route out of this. Hopefully omicron is just what we need.
How long will the new ‘holdouts’ last? When they cant fly? When they are banned from cafe’s and pubs? When they cant use public transport? When they are not allowed to earn a living? Or what about when they are placed under permanent house arrest and fined heavily for each refusal? Perhaps a year in a covid gulag might change their mind? If the NWO/Great Reset/Net Zero zealots have their way, its all coming this way soon.
Bit of a cop out but I have no intention of flying, have no particular need of cafes or pubs, don’t use public transport* and am no longer able to work for a living.
So for me ‘holding out’ will be fairly easy unless they link it to other ongoing medical treatments or make vax passports a condition of using food shops.
* it was my belief that they might make being double jabbed a condition of using hospital transport (which I have used a great deal since March and continue to do so) that took me to taking the first two vaccines in the first place.
Blimey.. I bet you’re fun at parties..
Always look on the bright side of life..
https://youtu.be/SJUhlRoBL8M
The tide is turning. So many experts publishing the findings of their studies, showing the dangers of experimental biologicals, and the intentional manipulation of stats. The judicial system finding in favour of the employees against mandates in places like the USA.
There is no way any country can survive lockdowns, mandating unsafe experimental injections, and removing people’s freedoms. Even the most brainwashed sheeple appear to be waking up. That is a good thing.
I really don’t understand the downticks on this post.
Shooting the messenger perhaps?
Local Live Online (mirror group news) is on the ball this morning with this top of the page Lead Item.
I’m also twice jabbed and, as reported earlier my GP Practice is turning over all their resources to booster jabs. They texted their entire patient list about this and sent me a personalised reminder after not responding for 24 hours.
Local Lives 5th article today informs that ALL Surgeries in the county are following suit, using much the same words as the original text so obviously an NHS Central flyer.
Perhaps it is comforting that readers find an item about overgrown shrubs more interesting than vaccine boosts.
It is good to see so many are declining the boosters, my husband included.
Jessica Rose explains a recent study showing just that: the shots are degrading the immune system (innate and adaptive). https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVkk1vozAQhn9NuAVhgw0cOLSbJqUqpFmRKNkLMmYgJmAQNmnIr1-n0R5W8tjWeD40fl7ONNT9OEdDr7T12HI9DxBJ-FYtaA2jNSkYc1FGHiYuRQG2zLVEAQksofJqBOiYaCM9TmANU9EKzrTo5SODIBqE1DpHnFcVKTkABodX3K_8Igyq0MfMo4CK6tmYTaUAySGCK4xzL8Fqo7PWg1q4Lwu8NqsBpUz90VZToTTjF5v3nfEPxvQZloXUiOICL7tRsuWVcS4kLFnNhFR64a51fwG5cFcwfyCOD_MRt5e46Z2k2d_T5s1LxLfgm_BersPhz6-Ypqs9SrI93maJirv2XBpfkp3u2-zkbVdvTmri2TG9mxqCvx_EZ7a_pU1NUhGrWKboJGIay9crd3ead4fzyf09FNgT1c5eY84O-S5__xykWl2uLwRnoiGFet183JJlv7tm7Pi1-SrU3hIRdjBC2MzmEOJ5NrY933eqEtGQUFwiP7B9qm5N5cwLz-lq_N8HWWOkOs6k7CV1fRNQP4j9vBhguTm7SQo95yBZ0UL5ZKmfkvihm9cgYTRSKXOmI0TdkAYB8iil7hPdQx6EIEJD1zKty95kyegfrr-gg85_
Well folks, there you have it. Keep taking those boosters
They are therapies. No way is a quarterly shot considered a vaccine. Bonkers world.
Why aren’t we using early treatments for covid. Oh I just remembered if there were successful, early treatments for covid, Big Pharma would not be eligible for EUA status and could not sell their experimental biologicals. Ivermectin 6p a pill. Hard to make a fortune at that price.
Even allowing for the fact that Yellow Card reporting only encompasses a fraction of adverse events, it would be very interesting to know which shot (first, second, third etc.) triggered the reaction being recorded.
I share your concern that repeated doses could permanently weaken the immune system and if the boostered suffer proportionally more adverse events, this would be useful knowledge to have.
How would anyone know what causes what when they are now mixing experimental biologicals. Despite the fact there is no safety data on doing so.
CEO of Pfizer Albert Bourla is now saying that the two shots of juice already flowing around your system and embedding itself into your ovaries/testes does not work against the ‘Omicron’ phantasm , but a third shot of the same juice does. Not only is this the level of stupid we are at, but this is the same guy who in January this year told you his juice was “100% effective against Covid 19”. Need I remind you that he himself hasnt taken his own snakeoil, his employees are exempt from the ‘vax’ mandate and his company paid the largest fine for health care fraud in American history.
Phantasm. Great word.
Great summary. Send to every journalist and MP in the land
A member of il Divo, who is jabbed, is now intubated in a Manchester hospital after catching covid. Could this be ADE? I expect Mr Bourla would explain this away by saying that the booster would have saved him. (I don’t know how many jabs the guy has had).
Why wasn’t he and thousands others offered early treatment? The FLCCC docs, Dr Peter McCullough, Dr Tess Lawrie and thousands of other doctors are using early treatments with excellent results.
why hasn’t the UK government advised people to take a vitamin D supplement daily? When they know low VitaminD is a risk factor for poor outcome with covid. Intubation? No thanks.
Absolutely right. As a first line of defence everyone should be actively encouraged to boost their vitamin D3 levels. Depending on age and weight over 4000 I.U. per day. With doses over 4000 I.U. taken with a daily supplement of vitamin K2. Supplement with Zinc and keep your vitamin C levels up. I’ve been doing this for about 18 months now.
As you say, second line of defence should be early intervention. MATH+ protocol etc.
Two interesting and informative videos about vitamin D3, zinc etc:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5g9AVqRsjo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9h-XQm2qEY
11 Nov at the Atlantic Council
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla received the 2021 Distinguished Leadership Awards from Ursula Von Der Leyen, the President of the EU commission.
Isn’t this maskless moment so cute?
The EU is buying 1.8 billion doses from Pfizer, about $20 a dose…
The ‘booster’ is exactly the same toxic shite that was injected in the first two rounds, dressed up in a friendlier ‘booster’ package, Its beyond me that people can’t see it. Its all in a name and f*ck all else..
That which they call a booster, by any other name would be as deadly.
Simply NO! For that reason, I didn’t read it.
Vaccines are irrelevant in an age group that aren’t vulnerable to the disease!
Boosters are irrelevant in any age group where a milder (variant) disease is now dominant!
Statistics a.k.a. lies!
The over-70’s are the only groups that could benefit from a booster.
For everyone else it is a waste of time.
So why are GP’s being told to prioritise the booster for all adults over everything else.
Please explain why the over 70’s would benefit from having toxic shite injected into them.. do tell!!!
Answer now please, in detail..
At this point, I agree with this wholehearted. I do not think these shots provide any overall benefit to any population.
From what I can tell, the only ‘therapeutic’ benefit they could provide is a temporary restoration of the immune system dysfunction caused by the original shots. Yay. Safe and effective?
Uh? I’m 70. Not jabbed, won’t be jabbed. Extremely healthy, outdoors in the garden all summer, walking dogs in the country all year, eat extremely well – NO processed food or sugar, minimal carbs and lots of local grass fed meat, plus local dairy and eggs + a cold shower every morning. Supplement Vit D+K2, Zinc & Quercetin and would far rather have Covid than the jabs. Know lots of people, inc. family who have had it and they all said it was like a bad ‘flu.
I neither need nor want the government or NHS to be responsible for my health, the latter only in a crisis. Can’t remember when I last went to see a GP, and the only emergency hospital admittance in my 70 years was a bout of pleurisy thanks to over long prescription of Tramadol (opiates badly weaken the respiratory system) after a femur debridement.
There’s some wonderful staff in the NHS, but as an organisation it’s beyond repair. And Soviet style worship of state institutions doesn’t work for me.
You must be my doppelgänger. Because I am 100% in agreement with everything you wrote. Except I did not have the femur debridement and tramadol problem
Because the gov’t is receiving kickbacks from big PharmA???
Money talks.
I ‘reluctantly’ had two AZ jabs being swayed that it was in the public good. For the time being I am holding out against calls for the booster because they are using the ‘gene therapy’. Two pertinent issues occur to me.
1. Following from the analysis it would seem that people who had vaccinations, but no booster, are in a worse position than the unvaccinated. Perhaps that is one reason why governments are hell bent on getting everyone ‘boosted’.
2.I would welcome opinions here, especially from medics/statiticians. If the risk of an adverse vaccine reaction is, say, 1 in 5000, how does this risk change with three or four jabs. If the risks are death, does the risk decrease because the succeptible have died? Does it multiply? I read in a serious text on risk, that if you are exposed to asbestos and have, say a 3 in 1000 risk of cancer, then smoke which gave, say a 3 in 1000 risk of cancer, the cumulative risk is 9 in 1000,not 6.
Seems to me, you’re asking the wrong question, what’s your risk to covid?
The only saving grace to the vaccine is that it wears off. But of course, heart inflammation is like a dog, not just for Christmas.
The truth is we simply don’t know. The data just isn’t being collected or analysed in any rational manner. We’re getting conflation of aggregate statistics onto individual risk, and sloping of shoulders in all directions.
That’s very likely to be an aggregate artefact. The vaccinated will contain those who are weaker, or believe they are weaker. The unvaccinated are self-selecting to those who are strong or believe they are strong. So you end up comparing on age, even though you are comparing apples and pears, because the people have differing levels of overall health.
Aggregate stats hide a multitude of sins. We are not all identical balls differentiated only by whether we are red or black – as you see in the stats books.
I’ve been reading the English language Israeli daily the Jerusalem Post since the summer to keep track of where Israel, the front runner with the vaxx, was going. It became clear in July that the effectiveness was waning, they started the 3rd shot 1 August.
Approx. 4 weeks ago (maybe even a little longer) there were articles saying the 3rd shot was waning already and a 4th would be needed.
Initially scientists being quoted spoke of the immunocompromised. I quote one (not verbatim) “the adverse events appear related to the immune response, so we think that there should be no problem for the immonocompromised to have a 4th shot”.
Another scientist said something along the lines of “a 4th shot will probably be all right”.
Recent articles indicate a growing reluctance among both the Israeli population (already unhappy with the 3rd shot and the coercion of the apartheid app) and scientists when it comes to the 4th shot – they simply have no idea what a 4th shot of mrna could do. Pfisser’s ridiculously short trial only covered 2 shots, the trial relating to the 3rd shot referred to in FDA documentation is based on 12 (yes, twelve) people.
We hear frequently that flu shots are hit and miss, often not getting the right strain going around. Have we ever heard of them then making people get a 2nd, 3rd, 4th shot inside a year? And that’s with established technology. The whole thing is an obscene experiement for which I hope those pushing it pay a very high price.
Figures of negative vaxx effectiveness, seen in last week’s UKHSA technical briefing and the Quatari study indicate that vaxxed are at a certain period in time at greater risk than unvaxxed (possibly ADE, listed as a possible adverse event in pfisser’s documentation submitted to the FDA in October 2020). IMO definitely the reason they are pushing like mad for the booster and whipping up the frenzy about the moronic variant – it’s a fab cover for explaining why so many double-vaxxed are nevertheless getting both infected and falling ill.
For the mRNA vaccines you should see an increase in side effects with each additional dose. This will cover all scales, so it’ll make nearly everyone have more pain/discomfort all the way to increasing the risks of very rare side effects.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210611174037.htm
Cells contain machinery that duplicates DNA into a new set that goes into a newly formed cell. That same class of machines, called polymerases, also build RNA messages, which are like notes copied from the central DNA repository of recipes, so they can be read more efficiently into proteins. But polymerases were thought to only work in one direction DNA into DNA or RNA. This prevents RNA messages from being rewritten back into the master recipe book of genomic DNA. Now, Thomas Jefferson University researchers provide evidence that RNA segments can be written back into DNA via a polymerase called theta, which could have wide implications affecting many fields of biology.
“This work opens the door to many other studies that will help us understand the significance of polymerases that can write RNA messages into DNA,” says Richard Pomerantz, PhD, associate professor of biochemistry and molecular biology at Thomas Jefferson University. “That polymerase theta can do this with high efficiency, raises many questions.” For example, this finding suggests that RNA messages can be used as templates for repairing or re-writing genomic DNA.
Good thing they warn people about this before they take the shot.. oh wait – they don’t.
Fig. 7 from tech. briefing 31 was used in the Dutch OMT tech. briefing earlier this week. When asked about the negative effectiveness, the prof. said that it was incorrect, it only went to zero – the MP asked again, prof. repeated it only went to zero, there was no negative effectiveness. I used to respect that guy, no longer, he has clearly given in to political pressure.
Re your previous discussion of post-vaxx susceptibility to infection, check out the Dutch corona dashboard (also in English), the chart on infections throughout time. Last summer, end June/early July you see an incredible spike in positive tests. This was directly related to pushing J&J on teens/20s. The claim was that this resulted in them not observing the 2-week period, but if that’s all it was, you would see the infections rise across the ages regardless, as they would have spread it around – didn’t happen, the spike is clear in the 20-29 cohort, next the 15-18 cohort, then 30-39 – the very groups who would have taken the J&J at that time to go clubbing/on holiday. This was at a time of low prevalence of the lurgy as well.
And dying.
I’m no expert, but I think that your point 1 is correct. My understanding is that your immune system has been primed by the jabs for the spike protein from the original Wuhan virus and little else (makes no difference really that you had AZ for your first 2, it’s just a different way of instructing your cells to make those spike proteins). So any nasty that comes along that isn’t an original spike protein is possibly likely to bugger you up, especially if you are in any way immunocompromised or comorbid (especially obese/diabetic). I think that’s why they’re going mad for boosters. Moronic probably is mild, except to the waning-efficacy-jabbed.
But hey, I’m not on SAGE.
Each time you take another experimental biological, it appears, you are weakening your innate immune system, making it more difficult for you to fight off any virus, bacteria, disease that comes your way. I believe Jessica Rose has published a paper discussing this.
The problem is that statistical results over large numbers are being interpreted as being applicable to individual people, with almost no direct consultancy about the real risks versus benefits to that person. If you want to do your own sums – which might be no worse than the aggregate stats in the back office- you could play with this one to start with: https://qcovid.org/Calculation You’d have to agree with it’s odds & sods, to prevent you suing Oxford University, but it’ll provide some useful risk assessment results.
Here’s my own result today; my probability of staying alive is 99.9923%:
The important question is whether the effect of the third booster is sustained as Omicron develops, and when it starts to wane in the older group that got the booster first.
Also, unless I’m reading the tables wrong, the effect is only showing up in the over 60s at present. The under 60s are not showing the same reduction in rate of infection – probably because the rate is very low to start with.
I hope we see an updated article in a few weeks time to see if these trends appear or are confirmed.
Take time to look at Israel, they’re already well ahead of us and their data is informative. Their booster has failed too and they’re requiring a fourth,which means our booster rollout is a waste of time and lives.
It is very likely that this effect is due to short lived IgA antibodies — it should be very much diminished by day 60 — or, right about now for those boosted first.
The question then is — what happens next? Two doses managed to disrupt immune systems to the point of doubling the risk of covid infection — just how bad is it going to get with people having three doses?
One of our trolls pointed out the other day, that neither the vaccines nor natural immunity works against Omicron. (And therefore you need a booster.)
Whilst there is an element of truth in that, we know that many individuals, possibly a very high proportion of the population, already had pre-existing immunity before the original strain of Covid appeared on our shores.
It may also be that acquired immunity to previous strains is what has made Omicron relatively harmless. I’m not sure how you’d be able to find out as finding a control is presumably virtually impossible.
Anyway, that comment made me wonder what level of immunity would actually keep these people happy? These sentiments are very worrying as they could with equal force be applied to the regular flu, which Covid is now not much more dangerous than.
Bit of a ramble, I think the conclusion is that a socio-political solution is required more than a medical one – t’was ever thus.
“regular flu, which Covid is now not much more dangerous than.”
Statistics clearly show that Covid is akin to a bad flu season and is NOT “much more dangerous”.
AFAIK, the trolls have got the natural immunity bit completely( deliberately?) wrong as it is far far superior to the vaxx.
“Important new data on Omicron neutralization in vaccinated vs. recovered people.
Professor Alex Sigal of the African Health Research Institute in Durban, South Africa, has presented the first data on Omicron neutralization in Pfizer vaccine study participants, both with and without previous infection (see preprint study).
As the figure above shows, Omicron neutralization in vaccinated people without prior infection (red) decreased to very low levels (a 41-fold decline compared to the initial Wuhan D614G variant). In contrast, neutralization in previously infected plus vaccinated people (green) remained relatively high and is “likely to confer protection from severe disease”, according to the authors.
Recovered people without vaccination have not been considered in this study, but previous studies found no significant benefit of vaccination in recovered people. Moreover, a recent Dutch study found that “in contrast to vaccine-induced immunity, no increased risk for reinfection with Beta, Gamma or Delta variants relative to Alpha variant was found in individuals with infection-induced immunity.”
Regarding the new Omicron study, three additional aspects are noteworthy:
1) The plasma of vaccinated people was taken on average just 12 days post-vaccination, i.e. at the point of highest antibody levels and neutralization effectiveness (see table below). In people vaccinated months ago, neutralization may no longer be detectable (see updates below).
2) In previously infected people, the plasma was taken a full 417 days post-infection and 27 days post-vaccination, on average (see table below). Despite this, previously infected people still had much higher neutralization levels.”
https://swprs org/omicron-update
Surely it has more to do with these idiots continually testing themselves and generating loads of false positives as a result?
Chief bedwetter at work was banging on yesterday saying that kids need to be tested daily now because of moronic.
As if that wasn’t bad enough Boss Bedwetter was in the states last week and “took advantage” of the fact that Americans have no morals to get his kids jabbed.
“The goods news, however, is that the boosters appear to be having a significant impact.”
Even if the impact is real, I am not sure how “good” this news is given the unknown effects of taking an experimental vaxx every few months for years on end.
The analysis by Dr Booth is indeed very technical.
Does it take into account the potential mis-classification raised by Norman Fenton where those that have received a jab but died or got Covid in the subsequent weeks were listed as unvaccinated? Unless this is resolved I don’t see how any official numbers related to vaccine effectiveness can be taken seriously.
Hello, I am Richard Booth. Matt Mounsey, if it were true that those who got Covid within weeks of a booster were listed as unvaccinated, then it would be far less likely that negative raw vaccine effectiveness would be seen, because the totals of unvaccinated infections would be boosted [sic] relative to the vaccinated. So if any of that is going on, I think it must be a small effect.
It is no surprise that the experimental jab and booster has a brief perceived beneficial action of stimulating antibodies but at what cost to the immune system and future health?
A couple of weeks of increased risk followed by a few months of “vaccine effectiveness” followed by a lifetime of health problems (or death) caused by the jabs is hardly going to make anyone who has been following events want to take the risk of a jab for Omicron which is akin to the common cold.
This …
This article fails to take account of the latest evidence on vaccine efficacy, summarised here by Paul Homewood:
“A summary of some of the latest research affirms COVID vaccine effectiveness at preventing and reducing disease/viral load is very temporary and prone to disappearing. This suggests shot after shot in perpetuity is required to maintain one’s “vaccinated” status.Disturbing research on the waning effectiveness of COVID vaccines has been elevated from the pre-print to a peer-reviewed publication in the journal Nature Medicine.
Although “initially effective” in reducing the severity of disease for the first month or two after vaccination, the authors (Levine-Tiefenbrun et al., 2021) assert an infection with the Delta variant ultimately renders “no difference” in the Ct (cycle threshold), or viral load, of the vaccinated versus the unvaccinated”
https://notrickszone.com/2021/12/16/its-official-covid-vaccines-infection-disease-protection-lasts-3-6-months-then-it-vanishes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=its-official-covid-vaccines-infection-disease-protection-lasts-3-6-months-then-it-vanishes
They are effectively on a train they cannot get off. Either continue to boost the engine or go down with it.
Perhaps if they’d followed the vaccine protocol in the first place, it may of had a chance of been more efficient?? Being from a veterinary background rather than human, if you brought your dog in to be vacc’d and I said bring him back in three week for the second dose and you didn’t, you came back in 12 weeks, then your dog would need to start the course again because you would be way outside the perimeter of the vaccines efficacy. Just a though.
And no doubt good for the vet’s bank balance as well.
Booths work is interesting but is highly flawed in that it makes the simplistic and naieve assumption that vaccine effectiveness is the only determinant in case numbers and hospitalisations. (hint it isn’t)
testing rates increase and decrease and explains the majority of trends, people who think they have a triple dose covid forcefield are initially less likely to get tested until they realise the forcefield is not as good as they thought. (when they hear other triple dosed test positive to illusion crumbles)
I see very limited evidence that these vaccines by creating IgG antibodies in the wrong compartment can make any significant difference to infection itself. If they did then the viral loads in breakthroughs would be lower. There is weak evidence that the vaccines create any IgA or mucosal immunity so you are lacking a biologically plausible mechanism by which the vaccines can prevent infection. one dose 2 dose 3 dose 5 dose it doesn’t matter, no biological mechanism for infection prevention.
it also takes no account of force of infection.
it takes time for triple boosted to collide with coronavirus test positive and possibly end up in hospital, when they do the mirage of triple dose effectiveness will vanish.
We have seen with each wave that the unvaccinated proportion testing positive spikes before the vaccinated, this is because the unvaccinated are in general younger and more mobile and therefore are more likely to collide with new flavors earlier. the highly vaccinated poulation is older less mobile and collide more slowly. When they do however the supposed vaccine effectiveness wanes. It was never real to begin with. whether dose 1 dose 2 or dose 3 4 5….100
Models should be forward tested and back tested so the challenge for Booth is to make an testable prediction for week 1 2022, and publish it here. it is only 3 weeks and 3 interations away so any errors cannot build very much. I bet any prediction Booth makes will be very wrong.
he has the model and all the numbers so this is trivial. so make the prediction here in the open, then come january we can test it against empirical evidence, if as is highly likely the model is worthless you can retract your statement and come up with some other model or approach to picking useful signal from noise.
I predict by early January 2022 the majority of those dying following a positive covid test will be triple dosed. By mid feb I am willing to call >75% dead with positive test result triple dosed.
Booth can make his prediction……
best
C
Hello, I am Richard Booth. confounder is correct that good models should in general be able to make predictions to be tested. This is tricky in the present case, because each new week adds in a new b_n and a new z_n value which is unknown. However, it is possible that the new values do not differ too much from previous ones, and then a meaningful estimate might be possible. I shall think further on this; thank you for the suggestion.
Hi, Confounder, you may be interested to know that I have updated my article as a result of your comments, and cited you. However, I feel unable to predict for Week 1 of 2022 (which starts on Monday) other than to claim my model will still be valid then, for reasons given there. Thank you for your interest.
Richard Booth
I suspect Mr Booth’s analysis is broadly correct, it supports my own conclusions that there is apparently a transitory benefit in terms of reduced hospitalisations & deaths for vulnerable people having been vaccinated. However, he ignores the other side of the equation:
Hello, I am Richard Booth. Nick R, I do not disagree with your points 2 to 6, but point 1 is incorrect in that my work, if valid, shows that triply vaccinated people have a significantly smaller chance of getting infected (I didn’t study hospitalization and death) than the doubly vaccinated. True, I didn’t compare with the unvaccinated – I’ll leave that to Will Jones.
“Vaccine Effectiveness Drops Below Zero in 18-29 Year-Olds for First Time – But Boosters Appear to be Helping” … until their efficacy wanes and you have to boost the boostersuntil their efficacy wanes and you have to boost the boosters until their efficacy wanes and you have to boost the boosters until their efficacy wanes and you have to boost the boosters until their efficacy wanes and you have to boost the boosters until their efficacy wanes and you have to boost the boosters until their efficacy wanes and you have to boost the boosters until their efficacy wanes and you have to boost the boosters until their efficacy wanes and you have to boost the boosters until their efficacy wanes and you have to boost the boosters until their efficacy wanes and you have to boost the boosters
Welcome to the future. Not mine, that’s for sure – i’ve had nothing to be boosted
Maybe I missed something, has anyone yet explained the ‘less than zero’ effectiveness of vaccines? Why doesn’t it just drop back to zero? And, the second time it drops back to below zero, will it get lower than the first time it drops below zero, or doesn’t anyone know yet?
there are many reasons why this is possible, probably a combination of all of the below and a bunch of other stuff too.
behaviour, the vaccinated think the vaccines protect them from infection so behave accordingly getting infected at a higher rate.
behaviour, the vaccinated are more likely to get tested like the good citizens they are.
behaviour, the vaccinated might choose interact more with other vaccinated people causing the virus to spread through the vaccinated networks.
or less likely, the unvaccinated are healthier than the vaccinated.
or the vaccines make the symptoms of infection worse leading to more infected vaccinated getting tested than infected unvaccinated
The table and graphs shown are not actually featured in the report linked, so what’s going on there?
“ A negative vaccine effectiveness means the infection rate per 100,000 people is higher in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.”
I don’t think this means anything at all, since the ‘infection rate’ reflects the presence of a few viruses in the nasal cavity, along with goodness knows what else we have innocently breathed in. Does it have any correlation with actual disease, within the body’s systems?
We should be given the relative rates for hospitalisations/ deaths between the vaccinated and unvaccinated, as transparently as possible.
Our healthcare system is about to experience a tsunami! Potential side effects of jabs include chronic inflammation, because the vaccine continuously stimulates the immune system to produce antibodies. Other concerns include the possible integration of plasmid DNA into the body’s host genome, resulting in mutations, problems with DNA replication, triggering of autoimmune responses, and activation of cancer-causing genes. Alternative COVID cures EXIST. Ivermectin is one of them. While Ivermectin is very effective curing COVID symptoms, it has also been shown to eliminate certain cancers. Do not get the poison jab. Get your Ivermectin today while you still can! https://ivmpharmacy.com
Boosters appear to be helping? With what? Isn’t this the age group suffering severe cardiac adverse events. Yes, let’s definitely give them boosters.
When cardiologists such as Dr Peter McCullough call for an immediate halt to the experimental biologicals due to the serious adverse events and deaths, people may just want to take his advice. Although since scientists, researchers and medical professionals like Dr McCullough are being banned, censored and suppressed by MSM, it is difficult for the average Joe to find the info they need to make good decisions.
I do wish journalists who should know better would stop pushing the boosters narrative. The last thing we need is endless boosters as a sticking plaster to cover the failure of the overhyped and underperforming COVID pseudo-vaccines.
Instead, the government should do what they should have done from the start of this public health farce – tell doctors, hospital OP departments to supply “positive” patients with “at-home” remedies such as ivermectin, hydroxycloroquine, fluvoxomine, plus essential vitamins like D and C.
The failure to provide any prophylactic or early-stage treatment has caused many uncessary deaths and disabilities here and elsewhere – as, of course, the “safe and ineffective” frankenjabs are still doing.
To sacrifice yet more lives to keep Big Pharma’s creaking vaccine bandagon rolling would be a crime worthy of heavy punishment when the eventual reckoning comes – as it surely will.
Is it just a marketing tactic in the drug trade? If you’ve used our product, you need it even more? £50 notes please, etc. What a scam. It’s becoming more apparent that you are better off without it, and follow other methods to maintain your immunity to lots of things.
Are lockdown sceptics just useful idiots?
These “vaccines” are relatively big killers both in the short eg heart issues, and in the long term as they permanently degrade the innate and adaptive immune systems, and lead to sterility and stillborn births.
To micro analyse the drugs effectiveness on a single issue without mentioning any other effects is simply to be what Lenin called a useful idiot. It is patently clear now that their long term aim was to initiate a never-ending injection regime and having a useless medical product that only slightly worked for a short period was the perfect tool.
All you are doing here is supporting the drug companies and confirming that they and the complicit politicians that this is the proof needed to get another dose of toxin in the bloodstream as soon as possible.
I’m a big fan of lockdown sceptics, the information is there in spades but there always seems to be a mental block that those others are also reasonable people like yourselves. But there are actually be quite a few murdering bastards within the drug industry where comparing their ethics and patronage with Nicaraguan drug cartel barons is quite apt.
Just a reminder that established vaccine products provide lifetime or decadal protection
Tetanus and Diphtheria – over 40 years
Measles and Rubella – 1-2% loose protection per decade
Vaccinia – approx 3% lose protection per decade
Hepatitis A – 95% effective, works for more than 20 years
Hepatitis B – Works for at least 20 years
MMR (Measles, Mumps, Rubella) – Lifetime, Mumps may decay late in life
Tdap (Tetanus, diphtheria and pertussis) – 10 years, 5 years in case of severe wound
This article has got to be a spoof. More and more people are now realising this whole injection scam is creating immune breakdown and readying the population for the next deadly Globalist idea…..transhumanism.
The UKHSA data is interesting – but it’s not clear what it defines as ‘unvaccinated’. I know that in the ICU data a patient is considered unvaccinated if it less than 14 days since being jabbed, which since it is known that the risk of side effects and of contracting Covid19 are highest in the first week or so smacks of dishonesty. The data in Week 50 for showing vaccine effectiveness (note relative risk, not absolute risk) for hospitalisations and deaths all start at 2 weeks after vaccination. There are just 2 charts which refer to ‘days’ but I suspect that is a typo. If that is the case then clearly the data is highly suspect. The vaccine has an effect almost immediately (remember anaphylaxis shock) so to include those who have been vaccinated within 14 days, in the ‘unvaccinated group’ is disingenuous at best. The HART group have a very good take on this – worth reading.
MiniTruth: The high infection rate in the double-jabbed has nothing to do with vaccines and everything to do with behaviour.
Also, MiniTruth: The low infection rate in the triple-jabbed has nothing to do with behaviour and everything to do with vaccines.
How can an injection that drops many people DEAD on injection or shortly after from a blood,clot due to is’s spike protein, have ANY efficacy? Dumb article.