There follows a guest post from our in-house doctor, formerly a senior medic in the NHS, who draws attention to the errors made repeatedly by the modellers and government advisors and the huge implications of them.
Napoleon Bonaparte remarked that “history is the version of past events that people have decided to agree on”. When the official version of the pandemic is written, I wonder what analysis will be made of the role of statistical modellers and public health experts in driving Government policy over the last 18 months?
To inform this question it may be helpful to examine the recent evidence of how predictions have matched up to real events. For example, on September 8th, SPI-M-O (one of the multitudinous acronym salad bodies advising the Government), produced a paper entitled “Medium-term projections“.
Perhaps mindful of the woeful inaccuracy of previous predictions, the very first sentence heavily caveats the entire document:
These projections are not forecasts or predictions. They represent a scenario in which the trajectory of the epidemic continues to follow the trends that were seen in the data up to September 6th.
If that is the level of confidence the authors of the report have in their own abilities, one rather wonders what value this publication contains – yet this is the level of advice being given to decision-makers.
Firstly, to the “projection” of admissions. The document is in PDF format, so I am unable to reproduce it here, but the graphical representations show a 90% confidence interval fan chart for the period September 12th-28th. Hospital admissions in England are “projected” to be between 600 to 1,200 per day – a fairly wide spread. Graph One shows what actually happened – daily admissions on the blue bars, seven-day moving averages on the brown line.
It is clear that admissions have been consistently below the lower ‘projection’ for the entire period and the seven-day moving average at the end of the month was below 500 admissions per day.
For context, it is helpful to present that period of September alongside the data from earlier and later in the year in Graph Two.
So, having projected that hospital admissions would continue to rise, the real-world data shows that they in fact fell quite significantly over the period in question.
Earlier in the year, the influential modelling group at Imperial College produced a ‘projection’ for SAGE looking at the effects of lifting Covid restrictions on July 19th.
In this paper, they estimated that hospital admissions by mid-September would be between 2,500 per day (optimistic case) and 12,000 per day (pessimistic case). The real data shows the average figure to be around 700 admissions per day.
Total patients in hospital testing positive for Covid have also continued to fall, as have patients being treated for acute Covid over the period – Graph Three shows that as of October 5th there were 3,630 patients being treated for acute Covid in English hospitals with a further 1,231 patients testing positive for Covid but being treated primarily for another condition.
In line with these trends, the ICU Covid bed occupancy has also fallen – depicted in Graph Four.
On July 7th, SPI-M-O produced a report containing data from three modelling groups (Imperial, Warwick and LSTMH) in relation to ‘projections’ after lifting of Covid restrictions on July 19th.
The data is quite dense, but in summary, their most optimistic projections around admissions, hospital inpatient and ICU load and deaths were overestimates by at least a factor of two. Worst-case predictions were overestimates by up to 10 fold. Positive tests in the community were predicted to be over 100,000 per day by the end of September – the reality was around 35,000 and the ratio of hospital admissions to cases has been falling steadily from around 8% at the beginning of the year to around 2% now.
The point of my article today is not to poke fun at data modellers, most of whom are probably trying their best to be helpful. My intention is to observe that almost all ‘projections’ I have seen over the last year have shown a remarkable consistency in grossly overestimating the numbers of Covid hospital admissions – yet the modellers and governmental advisors do not appear to have adjusted their calculations in light of observable real events and keep making the same errors. This constant catastrophising has real-world implications – not just for civil liberties, but for cancer diagnosis, chronic disease management and not least the state of the economy, which pays for the Health Service.
We have a long tradition of politicising healthcare in this country, with a corresponding corrosive effect on sensible decision making. The Covid pandemic has taken the tendency a step further by politicising a specific individual pathogen. I fear we are about to compound the error by extending the precedent to all seasonal respiratory infections. Having crossed the Rubicon of national lockdowns, there now seems to be an appetite among senior Government advisors for repeating the mistake. Professor Ferguson, giving evidence last week to the Parliamentary Select Committee on Covid, referred to ‘Plan B’ – in relation to re-imposition of societal restrictions should Covid hospital admissions exceed a threshold of 1,200 per day. Professor Van Tam has warned the public about the possibility of a serious influenza outbreak this winter and attendant pressure on the NHS. Is this evidence of prudent governmental contingency planning or ‘pitch rolling’ for re-introduction of ‘non-pharmaceutical interventions’?
I close this piece with an observation from another significant historical figure – Winston Churchill – a journalist and author before he became Prime Minister. Churchill remarked that “history will be kind to me – for I intend to write it myself”.
It is known that our current Prime Minister is an admirer of Churchill. I wonder how that enquiry will turn out?
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This is excellent from Viktor Orban. Thank the gods for Hungary. They’ve become like the ‘control’ country, as Sweden was during the Scamdemic years. Therefore it would be interesting to get some data from them, such as crime stats, for instance, and compare with other countries in Europe who are being flooded continuously with these migrants from Africa and the Middle East.
”During his speech at the third annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Budapest, Hungary, Orbán described five methods of oppression being deployed by liberals to silence the opposition, with the Hungarian prime minister noting that some of the most advanced forms of oppression, including court action and intelligence service spying, are already being deployed against conservatives across the West.
The first step Orbán describes is liberal actions designed to change the meaning of words and phrases in order to mislead the people, with the issue of migration being the most substantial example of this trend.
“The first step of progressive liberals, their oppression, is to make normal mean the exact opposite. War is peace. That is what progressives still say today. The Peace Facility. That’s the name of the Brussels financial fund from which the most destructive weapons are sent to the front. Migration is a resource, they say, while crime is rising, the threat of terror is increasing and trust is being drained from our societies,” said Orbán.
Orban noted that Hungary has been able to withstand this sea change, making it a “unique location in all of Europe.”
“It is the fact that, while the whole of Europe is being swamped by an ocean of progressive liberalism, a conservative island has survived (in Hungary), an Island of Deference, defying the liberal tide, the Brussels blast, and the Washington hurricane. Not only defying but surviving, even thriving, even succeeding, even triumphing and triumphing again and again.”
The second step on the path to liberals maintaining power is to invert everything that is normal, including sexuality, education, family life, love of country, and ethnic homogeneity.
“The second step is to start spreading this inverted normality by state means. Anyone who thinks otherwise is problematic. There is something wrong with that. Anyone who disagrees is either ignorant or insane. The perception must be that listening to them would lead to some fatal disaster,” said Orbán.
This method helps tear families apart, mock cultural and national traditions, and normalize behavior that up until just a few decades ago was considered beyond the pale, Orbán told the conference, adding that liberal subversion had led to “crashing birthrates, soaring divorces, broken families, and a failing education system that focuses more on ideology than academic greatness.”
“All of this is fertile breeding ground for left-wing parties to thrive and paint conservatives and the right as “backward” and deserving of political suppression and even outright violence,” he said.”
https://rmx.news/article/hungarys-pm-orban-at-cpac-the-5-methods-of-oppression-liberals-are-using-against-conservatives/
Poland was also doing Ok then somehow the devious EU managed to shoehorn their wonderful conscript Tusk onto them ! Within days he was busy destabilising the Polish constitution !!..
That’s what I don’t understand. It’s like asking Gordon Brown to come back to sell off the Gold Reserves for tuppence again.
And so it continues…Jesus wept. They’re going to completely ‘wokeify’ the Olympics aren’t they? I wonder how many MtF trans athletes we’ll see competing in the women’s events versus FtM competing in the men’s. Will there be any trans athletes at all? Well, as long as they can thwart any of the planned terrorist attacks for the duration of the games I’m sure it’ll all turn out right in the end;
”The upcoming Summer Olympics in Paris will feature a “Pride House” to promote LGBT ideology and “celebrate” homosexual and gender-confused athletes, as well as their supporters.
Paris 2024 Executive Team President Tony Estanguet announced on May 17 of last year, the so-called “International Day Against Homophobia, Biphobia and Transphobia,” that the games would host the “Pride House.”
“We are convinced that sport changes lives, and that it is also a formidable tool for changing mentalities and contributing to the fight against discrimination,” he remarked, euphemistically referring to opposition to homosexuality and transgenderism.
Estanguet, a former slalom canoeist, has also stated that pro-LGBT athletes will have “plenty of opportunities” to display their beliefs this summer, a signal that rainbow flags may be more prominent at this year’s competition than in the past.
This year’s games have been billed as the first “gender equal” Olympics. What that means is that men and women will have 50-50 representation in competition. Said another way, there will be the same number of male athletes as there are female athletes.”
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/paris-olympics-pride-house-homosexual-gender/?utm_source=featured-news&utm_campaign=usa
Fatima Sweetbread the famous pentuptathalete back in the day went to the doctors worried about excess bodily hair growth , the doc asked “ which area is concerning you the most ?” answer was “ it’s down here round by my bollocks “
Covid Boosters Massive Cancer Deaths Study – latest leaflet to print at home and deliver to neighbours or forward to politicians, including your local Reform Party candidate, your local vicar, media and friends online.
Thursday Morning Norreys Drive & Shoppenhangers Rd Maidenhead
Vaccines, autism and an epidemic of official lies
conservativewoman.co.uk/vaccines-autism-and-an-epidemic-of-official-lies/
Sally Beck
“Look at me, look at me, look at me, me, me!
Every day, every day, look at me, me, me!
Not my sign, not my sign, look at me, me, me!
Every day, every day, look at me, me, me!”
I dont understand what point you are trying to make? Should no-one be allowed to protest or to demonstrate?
Are you against the point they are trying to make?
Not at all. Everyone who visits this website agrees with all their signs, and their attempts to awaken and inform passing motorists are commendable.
As I’ve said previously, I am against these two women using this website to publish a photo of themselves every single day, preaching to the choir, virtue-signalling, and one of them has even stood with legs splayed wide in a disgusting pose and invitations to join them, making sure to publish their exact location every day, as if mistaking this website as a dating app for seniors.
They never seem to bother reading any of the articles or comment on them, but only use this website to glorify themselves. Not just once in a while, but Every…Single…Day. It seems like narcissism and attention-seeking.
If it were two men doing this, people would think it was weird, but women always get a free pass as “Sacred Cows”.
Asylum seekers spooked by Rwanda Bill are pouring into Ireland, says Deputy PM
‘In these dark days man tends to look for little shafts of light that spill from Heaven.’
These words were written by Sir Archibald Clerk Kerr. I give his letter, below, in full, for those who haven’t already seen it.
But this news from Ireland certainly seems like ‘little shafts of light from Heaven’ to me
My Dear Reggie,
In these dark days man tends to look for little shafts of light that spill from Heaven. My days are probably darker than yours, and I need, my God I do, all the light I can get. But I am a decent fellow, and I do not want to be mean and selfish about what little brightness is shed upon me from time to time. So I propose to share with you a tiny flash that has illuminated my sombre life and tell you that God has given me a new Turkish colleague whose card tells me that he is called Mustapha Kunt.
We all feel like that, Reggie, now and then, especially when Spring is upon us, but few of us would care to put it on our cards. It takes a Turk to do that.
[Signed]
Sir Archibald Clerk Kerr,
H.M. Ambassador.
6th April 1943
Very Good but HOW are these illegals flooding across from here to Ireland ?? Is the RNLI towing their floaty rubber thingies round to Fishguard & Holyhead so they can make their escape ,
‘….higher than 80%” of people seeking asylum in Ireland entered the country through Northern Ireland, a border crossing that is open as guaranteed under a UK-EU Brexit treaty.’
Probably just taking the bus from over here……
‘Bus services from London to Dublin make it easy and cost effective to reach the Irish capital. Eurolines offers a single direct connection every day of the week, which leaves London Victoria in the early evening. Buses travel overnight, arriving in Dublin 12 hours after departure.’
Fares from £35……..
…and the common travel area agreement which preceded both countries joining the EEC/EU in 1973.
This is becoming all to commoner sight here in the Republic!
https://youtu.be/NyFGxNuw6iY?si=ejUAYUuoTgQpjsD6
At least the Irish are having a go.
True, but I bet the minister for justice and the new pm just call them all faaar right as per usual
Time to reactivate the Irish Republican Army who have always been patriots I believe?
Mustapha Kunt – is that Sadiq Kunt’s real name? It suits him.
“Labour more popular with GB News viewers than Tories” I saw that being broadcast by them yesterday. Probably useful for them in their disputes with Ofcom re how to manage their coverage about elections!
No time for complacency: Dr Meryl Nass & Door to Freedom parse the detail of the latest IHR amendments and find very little change despite MSM claims to the contrary. They still want total control of your country and body.
https://merylnass.substack.com/p/door-to-freedom-team-shines-a-light
Very disturbing but no surprise.
Then Resistance is the only answer, just as it was against the nazis.
A recent report from the site of what was Nasser hospital. No, definitely not a genocide.
https://mondoweiss.net/2024/04/i-felt-like-pulling-my-heart-out-of-the-earth-testimonies-from-the-mass-grave-at-nasser-hospital/
What utter fools GB News watchers must be (to be switching over to support Kurt Starmer and Labour). And the next item on Blair…. All the stuff of nightmares! One could despair over these utterly stupid sheep.
“Asylum seekers spooked by Rwanda Bill are pouring into Ireland, says Deputy PM”
Welcome to the New tainted Emerald Isle that’s slowly being usurped from the irish by its own fecking government!
https://youtu.be/NyFGxNuw6iY?si=ejUAYUuoTgQpjsD6
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/25/tony-blair-offers-a-terrifying-glimpse-into-our-future/
David Frost hardly comes out guns blazing in his takedown of Bliar and describing somebody who has clearly given his soul to Satan as a Christian is beyond parody.
‘Given his soul’? He has no soul, but he IS Satan.
There’s a famous photo of him that used to appear on Twitter in which he appeared very demonic indeed. The photographer who took that shot probably plummeted to his death in an out-of-control lift.
“Humza Yousaf on the brink of being ousted as Scotland’s First Minister”
I have an awful feeling that he’s going to do a Klingon like Sunak, glueing himself to his First Minister seat, by doing a deal with his fellow Pakistani Muslim who somehow became leader of the Scottish Labour Party. Maybe they’ll agree to take turns as First Minister, for the sake of establishing The Caliphate North of the Border.
Hope they don’t read Daily Sceptic. They’re both too dumb to come up with that themselves.
“Superb. Try banning this, eKaren”
Absolutely brilliant. True Aussie Patriot Pauline Hanson never giving up, and never giving in!
From the BBC ‘sounds’
The Inquiry: Is climate change impacting chocolate production?
It certainly doesn’t look like it!
To work for the Biased Bollox Collective you have to believe six impossible things before breakfast and be ready to try convincing everyone else of the bollox too.
Is this true https://www.youtube.com/shorts/l0Nt7SIZhVw ? Or is it just crazy, as the heading says? However, it’s possible that O’Leary has got a deal from the UK Gov; we’ll see.
Interesting, especially since Ryanair say they can fit 197 passengers on one flight, and Rwanda has only agreed to take 200 dinghy criminals (per year?), so that means Ryanair can transport the entire lot in one flight, with 3 extra criminals in the luggage compartment.
So, it’s working then?