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SAGE Modellers Admit ‘Third Wave’ Probably Won’t Happen

by Toby Young
1 May 2021 6:18 PM

New SAGE modelling to be presented to ministers ahead of stage three of reopening on May 17th will show the risk of a ‘third wave’ of Covid infections in the UK has diminished dramatically and may not happen at all. The Telegraph has more.

The last set of projections, published by SAGE on March 31st, presented ministers with a difficult dilemma because they suggested a third wave of infections could be expected to kill another 15,000 to 20,000 people in the late summer if steps three and four of the exit roadmap were implemented as planned.

Ministers are expected to proceed with step three of the roadmap, with the return of indoor household mixing and indoor hospitality, as modelling teams which provided projections for ministers via the SPI-M subgroup of SAGE are said to be more optimistic.

Professor Adam Kucharski of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who works on modelling provided to SAGE, welcomed the new real world data on vaccine effectiveness.

“There was considerable uncertainty about the impact of vaccines on infection and transmission earlier this year, but recent studies are landing at the more optimistic end of the scale – at least for the dominant B.1.1.7 variant,” he told the Telegraph.

“We could still see some increase in transmission as things reopen, but the resulting impact could be relatively low if the vaccine programme stays on track and we don’t end up with variants that can partially evade immunity.”

New real-world data released last week has allowed SAGE to improve the assumptions which underpin their models on both vaccine effectiveness and rollout. Crucially, a PHE study released last week showed for the first time that vaccines cut “breakthrough transmission” of the virus by about half after a single shot.

“If you look at where they were in early April, compared to where they were in early February, they moved a huge distance,” said James Ward, a mathematician and insurance risk manager, who runs his own Covid model which closely shadows the official ones.

“So actually, it’s not very far for them to move now, from predicting an exit wave of 15,000 to 20,000 deaths to them predicting an exit wave of zero to 5,000, or maybe nothing at all.”

Worth reading in full.

Tags: ModellingRoadmapSAGE

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72 Comments
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NonCompliant
NonCompliant
4 years ago

Won’t make any difference, as you were slaves.

28
-1
Monro
Monro
4 years ago

Life of Brian refers:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9czBBKof7Yo

7
0
sjonesy1999
sjonesy1999
4 years ago

SAGE can do one.

22
-1
helenf
helenf
4 years ago

They will have cooked up covid-21 before the end of the year. The only way out of this nonsense is to resist.

81
-1
iane
iane
4 years ago
Reply to  helenf

Given that we are few and they are many, the only exit strategy may be feet-first.

14
-1
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  iane

We happy few…

10
0
RichardJames
RichardJames
4 years ago
Reply to  Hugh

“And the fewer men, the greater share of honour…”

1
0
helenf
helenf
4 years ago
Reply to  iane

This is where people get it wrong. We are many, they are few! The recent protest march in London shows that more and more people are seeing through this nonsense.

51
0
helenf
helenf
4 years ago
Reply to  helenf

I should clarify, I mean we the people are many, they the morons running and driving this shitshow are few.

21
0
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  helenf

The real problem is that they control the levers of power. The last year has resembled a more than passable imitation of a coup d’etat

25
0
helenf
helenf
4 years ago
Reply to  Hugh

They have no power if we all stand up against them. And they know it.

18
0
Rowan
Rowan
4 years ago
Reply to  helenf

Absolutely.

8
0
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  helenf

Hmm. They also know if it’s a big if. They use these psy-ops things because they work, don’t underestimate how good these people are at propaganda.

14
0
Rowan
Rowan
4 years ago
Reply to  iane

Then we should die with honour and resist to the end. There is no other viable option.

18
0
Rowan
Rowan
4 years ago
Reply to  helenf

The EU already has Covid-21 on its new passport app.

16
0
happychappy
happychappy
4 years ago
Reply to  helenf

Absolutely. We will see the emergence of the new deadly mutant strain, impervious to existing vaccines and requiring strict, severe lockdowns. I predict from sometime around June 21st…

2
0
karenovirus
karenovirus
4 years ago

SAGE will look silly when the ‘third wave’ does appear late this Autumn, perhaps then they will announce the discovery of ‘seasonality’.

34
0
iane
iane
4 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

Yes, although, to anyone with a reasoning mind, they look pretty darned silly anyway.

30
-1
Rowan
Rowan
4 years ago
Reply to  iane

Looking silly has never bothered SAGE or Boris Johnston, for that matter.

18
-1
Rowan
Rowan
4 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

SAGE will not do any such thing, instead it will simply recommend savage lockdowns which the government, acting on behalf of the globalists, will be only to keen to enforce.

14
0
fon
fon
4 years ago
Reply to  Rowan

that’s why vaccination is key.

1
-42
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  fon

but is it safe and effective though? (I know big pharma and their proxies talk it up, but what do genuinely independent people say about it?)

Last edited 4 years ago by Hugh
5
0
Paul B
Paul B
4 years ago
Reply to  fon

Seriously dude, this is getting tiresome.

11
0
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  Paul B

People can get hoisted by their own petard…

3
0
ebygum
ebygum
4 years ago
Reply to  Paul B

The PRC demands that Fong puts in the hours. The Party is all and Fong must obey.

0
0
Dave Angel Eco Warrier
Dave Angel Eco Warrier
4 years ago

It probably will happen now given SAGE’s penchant for innaccuracy.

10
0
mwhite
mwhite
4 years ago

I Cannot Make it any Simpler! Viral Triggering and Viral Realities – YouTube

We’ll have to wait until winter.

4
0
Norman
Norman
4 years ago

That is awful news since SAGE have never managed a correct forecast!

16
0
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago

I turned up a gem looking through old newspapers. From the Express (20/10/2013):

“Jab to end super-flu
Scientists believe they have cracked the “Holy Grail” after positive results in the first human trials of a universal vaccine that works even if the virus mutates… it could spell the end of annual flu jabs… they hope [trials] will lead to widespread availability of the injection by 2018″.

I take it the project failed then? One wonders how much ‘belief-as-fact’ we have had from “scientists” on the current anti-viral “vaccines” that have been rushed out in rather less than 5 years.

“Scientists” are hailing them a success after just one Winter season. During which many people died after the “vaccination” programme started. And has not been effective enough for the permanent lifting of all restrictions.

This “vaccination” programme may have been many things, but a success is not one of them, from what I can see.

31
0
Rowan
Rowan
4 years ago
Reply to  Hugh

Geert Vanden Bossche rides again.

1
0
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  Rowan

If they had this “vaccine that works even if the virus mutates”, would all restrictions be lifted? I think Boris Johnson should tell us.

5
0
Annie
Annie
4 years ago

Maybe this time Sage itself is being leaned on.The Narrative says 1.almost everybody has been vaxxed, 2. the vax works. A third wave would demolish this narrative, so it can’t be predicted.

20
0
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  Annie

Is this why they’re pushing an Indian variant?

I’ve said before, much of what passes for “science” appears to be little more than advanced fantasising these days (aka moelling?).

If they want to (if there’s enough money in it?) they will find some reason for carrying on with their restrictions.

28
-1
helenf
helenf
4 years ago
Reply to  Hugh

Exactly!

3
-1
Rowan
Rowan
4 years ago
Reply to  Hugh

More restrictions that can only be lifted if everybody gets the new Indian and God knows where else variant “vaccines”, now where have we heard this before? It’s so predictable that it would be funny if these new “vaccines” weren’t intentionally going to be lot more lethal than the present very dodgy “vaccines”, that only the utterly stupid are clamouring for. It’s been crystal clear since at least this time last year, that the Covid event is really about global depopulation and still people put their trust in Bill Gates and Matt Hancock. When will they ever learn, but already it’s too late for a great many.

Last edited 4 years ago by Rowan
22
-1
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  Rowan

Well – my understanding is that many councils were struggling to fund care home places for all those who needed them. Coincidence or not, a lot of people in care homes dying, and life made so dreadful in them that many would do anything to avoid them, is certainly rather convenient for them

15
0
Rowan
Rowan
4 years ago
Reply to  Hugh

Suicide may seem a better option to some, rather than internment in a “care home”.

12
0
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  Rowan

Tragically probably what has happened with some. Are they actually suppressing the stats like with the DDR, or do we have the numbers for 2020?

5
0
karenovirus
karenovirus
4 years ago
Reply to  Rowan

Rather than global depopulation, or whatever the end game is, too many people think it’s about sitting inside the pub, going to football and a holiday in the sun.

8
-1
Rowan
Rowan
4 years ago
Reply to  Annie

The “vaccines” not working will simply mean that a new round of new improved (more lethal) “vaccines” will be called for. They are clearly working to a script.

19
0
fon
fon
4 years ago
Reply to  Annie

. the vax works. 

It sure does.



1
-25
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  fon

Evidence please? (And independent sources, not the BBC).

9
-1
Rowan
Rowan
4 years ago
Reply to  Hugh

77th Brigade don’t need evidence.

Last edited 4 years ago by Rowan
13
-1
helenf
helenf
4 years ago
Reply to  Hugh

Come on, this is fon you’re talking to!

1
-1
Rowan
Rowan
4 years ago
Reply to  fon

And you people at 77th Brigade say that because you get paid to spout nonsense, with public money at that

9
-1
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  Rowan

I wonder? Some comments he makes seem legitimate enough, and likely enough some do consider themselves as lockdown-sceptic and in favour of this “vaccination” programme, however suspect it may seem to some of us, but maybe these people are just quite clever about how they do things. And some of the stuff struck me as a bit nonsensical – that comment about the IFR in India struck me as hard to square with someone genuine.

Last edited 4 years ago by Hugh
7
0
helenf
helenf
4 years ago
Reply to  Hugh

Given the comments I’ve read from fon, I would say ignore all even if some sound pro LS. Confusion, that’s part of the manipulation. The main thing is not to waste time on programmes like fon. Just a distraction.

6
-2
CovidiousAlbion
CovidiousAlbion
4 years ago
Reply to  helenf

Perhaps it’s the onset of dementia. We should not be cruel, as it’s a horrible thing to suffer, and we might find ourselves in a similar state, one day. (No, I do not mean this sarcastically.)

3
-1
Woden
Woden
4 years ago
Reply to  fon

If by ‘works’ you mean deaths and many adverse reactions of a so called vaccine still on trial till 2023, spot on mate..

3
0
Bill Hickling
Bill Hickling
4 years ago

Well I never. Why are they still listening to these catastrophists?

7
0
Rowan
Rowan
4 years ago
Reply to  Bill Hickling

The catastrophists are paid to produce the ‘independent” nonsense that the government actually wants.

5
0
Attaboy
Attaboy
4 years ago

oh are they getting tired of lying….. maybe when this is over Mr Zuckerberg and his investors will come with climate change saying we need to live online as this is the only way to a sustainable green future

6
-1
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  Attaboy

I heard cryptocurrency was using a frightful lot of electricity.

6
0
LePib
LePib
4 years ago
Reply to  Hugh

Apparently Bitcoin has a larger annual carbon footprint than Venezuela

0
0
chris c
chris c
4 years ago
Reply to  Hugh

Smartphones too. My trusty old Eriksson finally died after 14 years. It made calls and texts with difficulty, and went “bleat bleat” but only needed charging about once a week.

My replacement smartphone needs charging every few days even when I hardly use it. It spends most of its time turned off.

How long do the batteries in electric cars last before they need replacing? As for electric heating . . .

1
0
fon
fon
4 years ago

do we not have laws to penalise those who raiae false alarms, like bomb scares etc?

0
-9
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  fon

Any particular false alarms? What about the smearing of the ingestion of apricot kernels by vested interests? I’ve been eating them for years despite these people and suffered no harm. Why don’t the EU ban the ingestion of alcoholic beverages instead? Not because of the science, that’s for sure.

Last edited 4 years ago by Hugh
6
0
peyrole
peyrole
4 years ago

GIGO, just because it says what we want it to doesn’t make it better. Its garbage. There is ZILCH evidence that the vaccines do anything, except kill vulnerable people.

10
-1
fon
fon
4 years ago
Reply to  peyrole

you are inviting lockdown forever.. and that’s what you will get.

0
-15
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  fon

But is this because of the politics or because of the science?

3
0
Rowan
Rowan
4 years ago
Reply to  fon

And you are encouraging people to play Russian roulette with hardly tested and liability free experimental vaccines, that aren’t vaccines. Still you’ve got to scrape a living somehow and perhaps lowlife paid trolling is the best you can do.

Last edited 4 years ago by Rowan
11
0
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  Rowan

I must say it’s always worried me that it’s been liability free. That must have been wonderful for their business plan.

11
0
fon
fon
4 years ago

Suggesrted letter to mp via https://www.writetothem.com/

Dear Mr MP,

In the 70’s false bomb scares were a  common way to create public havoc by e.g. clearing out a cinema. The IRA used to make them all the time. Do we have laws to deal with those who make false alarms such asthe  gang of scientists, known as SAGE who have been raising the false alarms about a nonsensical 3rd wave of covid-flu?

https://dailysceptic.org/2021/05/01/sage-modellers-admit-third-wave-probably-wont-happen/

Please ask the Home secretary to address the problem of false covfefe waves, which are creating national pandemonium.

https://dailysceptic.org/2021/05/01/sage-modellers-admit-third-wave-probably-wont-happen/

One of the perpetrators of this false alarm is Professor Neul Ferguson, at Imperial college London. Please clamp down  hard on the individuals concerned. Please can this individual be prosecuted for raising false alarms  and put in prison to prevent him doing further mischief?

Tous truly, Fon

8
-1
helenf
helenf
4 years ago
Reply to  fon

c-

1
-1
frankfrankly
frankfrankly
4 years ago

Conclusions so general that they are obviously covering themselves. Will any future inquiry properly examine the failed modelling and the iron grip it has had on SAGE and the Govt?

6
0
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  frankfrankly

No, they’ll comme up with some variation on liability free for their friends

5
0
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago

I’ve asked some civil questions re. the “vaccination” programme. I know people are busy, but if any supporter of this has a few minutes to provide some answers – I genuinely want to hear all points of view, as long as people are acting in good faith.

0
0
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  Hugh

Well thank you and good night. 🙂

0
0
JoP
JoP
4 years ago

Good comparison of the SPI-M-O model here https://twitter.com/rp131/status/1388165416657293318?s=21. They are following something close to scenario 5a and hospitalisations are already miles below the model. I can’t see the July surge happening. The assumptions in https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963565/S1130_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_further_modelling_of_easing_restrictions.pdf are all wrong.

2
0
marebobowl
marebobowl
4 years ago

None of us who read lockdown sceptics believe a word that sage utters. More interested in what all the alternative narrative world renowned scientists have to say. Drs. John Ioannidis, Scott Atlas, Carl Heneghan, Sunetra Gupta, Peter McCullough, Tess Lawrie, Jay Battacharya, Simone Gold, Pierre Kory, Harvey Risch, Michael Levitt, Michael Yeadon, Clare Craig, and hundreds of others who have given us studies that make sense and disprove the gov’t narrative, time to take back our freedoms. Start today.

12
0
imp66
imp66
4 years ago

Get ready for the next ‘smoke and mirrors’ trick from SAGE. Scary new variants will probably appear, just before lockdown easing is due to end….

2
0
RedhotScot
RedhotScot
4 years ago

The use of computers by ‘scientists’ forecasting on public policy need to be outlawed.

Make the f***ers sweat over paper and pencil. Perhaps then, we wouldn’t be subject to nonsense programmed in by students, signed off by a head of department who hadn’t a clue of the subject matter!

0
0

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