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How Worried Should We Be About the New Variants?

by Toby Young
13 March 2021 7:28 PM

Dr Mike Yeadon is back! Today we’re publishing an original piece he has co-authored with a colleague from PANDA (Pandemics – Data and Analytics), a multidisciplinary group seeking to inform policy responses to the pandemic. Its scientific advisory board includes the three signatories of the Great Barrington Declaration. Dr Yeadon, along with Marc Girardot, looks at the new variants and asks: Are they likely to evade our existing immune responses, whether that immunity was acquired via infection or vaccination? Their conclusion is that the recent downward trends in cases and hospitalisations across the globe indicate that the virus has probably not mutated in a way that makes it much more dangerous and that a healthy immune system is very capable of dealing with these new forms of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Here’s an extract:

SARS-CoV-2 is a large virus with approximately 30,000 RNA bases (10,000 amino acids). Currently, the greatest difference between any ‘mutant variant’ and the original Wuhan sequence is limited to 26 nucleotide mutations. The genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in circulation on different continents is fairly uniform. We know that the mutation rate in SARS-CoV-2 is slower than other RNA viruses because it benefits from a proofreading enzyme which limits potentially lethal copying errors. To date, these mutations have caused changes in less than 0.3% of the entire virus sequence. All variants are therefore currently 99.7% similar to the original Wuhan viral sequence.

To date, no robust scientific evidence proves that any of the variants identified are more transmissible or deadly than the original. By definition, variants are clinically identical. Once there is a clinical difference then a new ‘strain’ of virus has emerged. Prior knowledge of viral mutation shows they usually evolve to become less deadly and more transmissible. This optimises their chance of spreading, as dead hosts tend not to spread viruses, and very ill hosts have reduced mobility and thus limit contact with others.

This is very well-researched piece that deals with one of the main arguments for perpetuating the lockdown. Worth reading in full.

Stop Press: Cases and hospitalisations continue to plunge in Florida, in spite of the state having the largest number of confirmed cases of the B117 variant of any US state. The Daily Mail has more.

Tags: MutationsNew StrainsVariants

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6 Comments
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gavinfdavies
gavinfdavies
2 years ago

What should also be looked at is the age distribution of those excess deaths. In the same way the “quality years of life lost” are used to assess the cost/benefit of a proposed treatment, maybe the same strategy should be used regarding excess deaths.

Coldly logical it may seem, but 10 extra “died suddenly” events in school children (10 x 70 years lost) is far worse than 100 “died suddenly” events in octogenarians (100 x 5 years lost), for example.

89
-2
Jon Garvey
Jon Garvey
2 years ago
Reply to  gavinfdavies

Whether or not QUALYs lost is a measure of quality, it is useful as a measure of something badly wrong. You don’t have to put a figure on a child’s life to know that children dying is abnormal and bad.

41
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MikeAustin
MikeAustin
2 years ago
Reply to  gavinfdavies

See here

0
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godknowsimgood
godknowsimgood
2 years ago

In addition to excess deaths since the summer of 2022, there’s this – posted here by ebygum a couple of weeks ago, which deserves repeating – it’s a recent report by the obviously highly reputable Institute for Fiscal Studies:

“In summer 2021, each month 15,000 or so working-age people started a PIP claim. That monthly figure had remained little changed for years. It then steadily increased, such that by July 2022 (the latest data) it had doubled to 30,000. This report investigates the increase.”

Why would this be happening?

https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2022-12/The-number-of-new-disability-claimants-has-doubled-in-a-year-IFS-report-R233.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1k-a8Om62k8oxzlRqcMbmBf9Rk-JKuIMNvnWST-i3VmnM8SnJtbenITyw

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ebygum
ebygum
2 years ago
Reply to  godknowsimgood

Yes…it seems to me that there is confirmation evidence to show that deaths and injuries are excessive…and it’s coming, not just from Government ONS or UKHSA, but from different data sets….like the PIP claims, and insurance claims for instance….
I’ve posted Dr John Campbells video below in my comment…for UK/insurance…

..this is from the USA insurance stats’…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/where-did-all-workers-go

33
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Freecumbria
Freecumbria
2 years ago

Clearly prior to 2020 mortality was coming down and coming down at a rate greater than the effects of increasing population size and an ageing population, and so raw death numbers were numerically reducing too. That trend couldn’t continue for ever or else based on that existing trend we’d all be immortal at some time in the future, but at the same time an abrupt turnaround couldn’t be expected.

What has always surprised me is that people have been living for longer. I’ve never understood why that was in the context of a population of seemingly worsening health with higher metabolic illness. I’ve tentatively put it down to us being better at prolonging life at the very end of life rather than increasing healthy lifespan. But the honest answer is I don’t know.

Without understanding why mortality has been coming down to 2019, it’s hard to say how long we would have expected the trend to continue. But to assume a future trend of no improvement after such a long period of mortality improvement seems a strange starting assumption for Noah Carl to be using, but that ultimately is the assumption he’s using in claiming 2022 was a normal year.

We have significantly high mortality in working ages even after adjusting for population and looking at age stratified data.

Given that, what is most likely that the excess mortality caused by experimental vaccines and lack of access to healthcare etc only affects those of working ages and not those over say 75 or that there is some effect like a lack of ‘dry timber’ in the oldest ages because of the ravages of the last few years. I think the latter is the obvious starting assumption.

Last edited 2 years ago by Freecumbria
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JXB
JXB
2 years ago
Reply to  Freecumbria

‘ I’ve never understood why that was in the context of a population of seemingly worsening health with higher metabolic illness. I’ve tentatively put it down to us being better at prolonging life…’

i have.

Propaganda from the experts and vested interests misleading us into believing the situation is worse than it is to serve their own interests, just like all the propaganda about masks, lockdowns, protecting granny, vaccines that aren’t, climate change, lies about cholesterol, eating meat, sugar, salt, saturated fats – quite a list.

I just wonder how many more lies do people have to hear before the penny drops and they stop listening.

2
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ebygum
ebygum
2 years ago

Where is the Matrix Cat? Are we in a parallel universe? LOL!

Just put this on the ‘other side’ Dr John Campbell and the worrying rise in excess deaths in the 20-44 age cohort in comparison with 2019…using insurance actuary data…something that Ed Dowd in the USA has used to show massive increases in death and disability…..
There seems to be more than one source of data confirming a rise in all cause mortality!?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OD0na_NZaLM

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Sforzesca
Sforzesca
2 years ago

I’ve got a great idea.
Why don’t we just differentiate vaxxed v. unvaxxed re the apparent increase in deat rate.

63
0
JXB
JXB
2 years ago
Reply to  Sforzesca

But the ‘vaccines’ was going to ‘save lives’ particularly of the ‘most vulnerable’.

Never mind the age-adjusted malarkey and percentages, it still doesn’t explain why so many more ‘saved lives’ died in the vaccinated group when we were categorically assured they would not.

If people are going to die anyway, what’s the point of the ju-ju medicine?

2
0
Jabby Mcstiff
Jabby Mcstiff
2 years ago

It is a grim picture from an economic point of view. The workforce is going to become severely diminished and incapcitated, at least terms of quality whilst at the same time less pressure on housing and employment will bring no relief in terms of inflation which is now essentially a perfectly calibrated extract and control mechanism. We are being funnelled into this reality at an alarming speed and yet we fail to understand the urgency and we are so dependent on these systems that we struggle to formulate a path of resistance.

18
0
JXB
JXB
2 years ago
Reply to  Jabby Mcstiff

The work force has been diminished and incapacitated gradually since the British Socialist Party took over in 1945 with the promise of Utopia.

Borriwing from the apocryphal reply attributed to Pope John… how many people work in Britain? About half of them.

We now have nearly 50% of the work-able getting a wage fir jobs that create no wealth, in jobs of such low productive output they need State welfare top up, peopke who just don’t work at all and get benefits.

It’s called Socialism – that Faustian pact where people stupidly sell their Souls – delayed payment – for the instant gratification of a life of State provision, safety and security.

1
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Jabby Mcstiff
Jabby Mcstiff
2 years ago

If you have a heart problem there are three herbs that you might want to consider: hawthorn and Arjuna and danshen or red sage. All of these are being investigated by big pharma but it is worth investigating these substances.

13
0
Mogwai
Mogwai
2 years ago

And what’s going on in Scotland? Just in December 2022 they saw a 10% rise in excess deaths and 15.6% decrease in births. England and Wales have an excess death rate of 23.1% in week 1 this year.

https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/scottish-excess-deaths-reach-29

26
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Pilla
Pilla
2 years ago

And add into all the comments below Ed Dowd’s reporting of a global average of 29 deaths on the field of sports people before 2021 and now it’s huge numbers every month. (See James Delingpole’s podcast with Edward Dowd, 22/1/23).

11
0
JXB
JXB
2 years ago

‘… this means the model assumes society is ageing very fast and this ageing is having a large impact on mortality rates…’

But if all the ‘dry tinder’ got used up in 2020 & 2021, the population would be on average be younger having lost a significant portion of its ageing people.

4
0
JXB
JXB
2 years ago

‘He told me: “The ASMR is ultimately just an opaque ‘model’ that relies on multiple unverifiable assumptions…’

Isn’t this what is now called: The Science™️

It certainly was the basis for the ‘pandemic response’ and underpins the climate change scam.

2
0

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