My colleague, the brilliant Professor Christof Kuhbandner, sent me an e-mail about an update to his pre-print analysing excess deaths and stillbirths in Germany from 2020 to 2022, co-authored with Professor Matthias Reitzner. This is the most thoughtful and carefully done analysis of excess deaths during the pandemic that I’ve seen. With his permission, I reprint his e-mail summary below and embed the full document at the bottom.
First of all, it is interesting to look at the excess mortality per year depending on the age group; here is the corresponding result figure:
It had already become apparent for 2021 that an excess mortality is observed particularly in the middle age groups. This trend has continued in 2022: now a high excess mortality is already being observed in the 15-29 age groups. There – on average across all months in 2022 – almost 10% more deaths than expected occurred.
The next thing that is striking is the course of excess mortality within the years depending on the age group. Here is the corresponding result figure (red areas are excess mortality, green areas are mortality deficit):
There are several notable observations here.
It is initially interesting to look at the excess mortality from November 2020 to March 2021, when there was a strong Covid wave at the turn of the year. On the one hand, there is a strong age dependency: the older the people, the higher the excess mortality, and there is absolutely nothing to be seen in the age groups under 30. On the other hand, you can see a typical pull-forward effect: the phase of excess mortality is followed by a phase of a mortality deficit in all affected age groups, i.e., the Covid wave hit many people who would have died within the next few moths anyway. In other words, the excess mortality phase is balanced out by a subsequent phase of a mortality deficit, meaning that cumulatively there is hardly any excess mortality at the start of the vaccination campaign at the end of March 2021.
This pattern changes from April 2021 onwards – the start of the vaccination campaign. Suddenly, an excess mortality appears that is no longer dependent on age, and which is no longer compensated for by subsequent phases of a mortality deficit. This is particularly evident in the younger age groups. Up to the time of the vaccination campaign, for example, there was no excess mortality in the 15-29 age group. But since vaccination started in this age group, suddenly more 15-29 year olds are dying than expected. There are hardly any phases of a mortality deficit anymore, and excess mortality is rising and rising. In December 2022, 22.5% more people died in this age group than expected – an age group in which nobody normally dies so easily. A similar pattern is found in the 30-49 age group and the 60-79 age group. And even in the 80-plus age group, where initially phases of excess mortality were always offset by subsequent phases of a mortality deficit, this changed in 2022. There, too, a worrying steady increase until the end of December 2022 is observed.
The course of stillbirths is also striking. We have analysed stillbirths based on the data we received from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany. Here is the corresponding results figure:
The upper panel shows the course of live births and the panel below the course of stillbirths since 2019 (the diagnosis of stillbirths was changed in Germany at the end of 2018 so that the numbers before 2019 are not comparable).
The already-known massive decrease in the number of live births in the first quarter of 2022 – exactly nine months after the start of the vaccination campaign – can be seen impressively. The data on live births are now available from the Federal Statistical Office up to the end of October 2022, and contrary to what one might have hoped, this is not just a short-term decrease in the number of births. In the third quarter of 2022, 14 500 fewer children were born alive than on average in the previous years 2019-2021.
A different picture emerges for stillbirths. Until the end of the first quarter of 2021, the trend since 2019 has been very stable, similar to that of live births. A sudden increase is then observed in the second quarter of 2021, and the number of stillbirths is also higher in the third and fourth quarters than in previous years. That is, before the number of live births decreases at the beginning of 2022, the number of stillbirths increases in the previous quarters.
Since the number of stillbirths depends on the number of pregnancies, to assess the increase of stillbirths one has to relate the number of stillbirths to the number of live births. It is important to note that in women who became pregnant at the same time, stillbirths occur about a quarter earlier than live births. This can be seen in the figure above, where the seasonal peaks in stillbirths occur a quarter earlier than in live births. In order to estimate the proportion of pregnant women who have lost their child, the stillbirths in one quarter must be related to the number of live births in the following quarter. The third panel in the graph above shows the estimated proportion of pregnant women who lost their child (number of stillbirths per 1,000 total births).
As can be seen, there is no major change until the first quarter of 2021, apart from the usual seasonal variation. In the second quarter of 2021, the proportion of stillbirths suddenly increased by 9.4% compared to the average of the two previous years; in the fourth quarter of 2021 the proportion of stillbirths is 19.6% higher than in the previous two years. This is illustrated in the bottom panel of the figure above.
In summary, the following picture emerges: From the beginning of April 2021 onwards – the start of the vaccination campaign – excess mortality suddenly increases continuously up to the youngest age groups and is no longer compensated by phases of a mortality deficit. That is, unlike before, the observed excess mortality no longer represents a pull-forward effect where the highly vulnerable people die some months earlier than expected. In addition, the number of stillbirths is increasing at the same time. Nine months later, a massive and sustained decrease in live births is observed.
As an analysis of the course of excess mortality and Covid deaths shows, this cannot be explained by Covid deaths. Here is the corresponding results figure:
From February 2021 onwards, the excess mortality curve decouples from the Covid deaths curve. Despite a phase of a significant mortality deficit, a high number of so-called ‘Covid deaths’ are still being reported, which raises great doubts about the validity of the ‘Covid death’ diagnosis. Apparently, this diagnosis was often used for deaths that would have died at the same time regardless of Covid. From September 2021 onwards, excess mortality starts to be higher than the number of Covid deaths, and in 2022 excess mortality went through the roof while the number of Covid deaths progressively decreased.
The parallel between the excess mortality curve and the vaccination curve is striking. Here is the corresponding results figure:
Excess mortality is increasing in parallel with the increase in the number of first vaccinations. Exactly as the number of first vaccinations decreases, excess mortality also begins to decrease, but not as much as the first vaccinations, perhaps because the number of second vaccinations increases at the same time. And exactly with the peak of the second vaccinations, excess mortality also reaches its peak, only to then decrease exactly parallel to the second vaccinations. With the start of the third vaccinations, there is a parallel increase in excess mortality, and exactly as the third vaccinations decrease, the excess mortality also decreases.
Of course, correlation does not have to mean causation. But exactly such a pattern would be expected if vaccination as an adverse side-effect increases the number of unexpected deaths. And meanwhile, it can also be regarded as clearly documented that the vaccinations definitely lead to unexpected deaths. In particular, the existing findings suggest – but unfortunately there are still no epidemiologically valid data on this – that the number of unexpected vaccination-related deaths is definitely high. In our paper, we refer to the peer-reviewed findings of the renowned Heidelberg pathologist Peter Schirmacher. Here is the summary from our paper:
For instance, in a study of a research team led by Peter Schirmacher, out of 35 bodies found unexpectedly dead at home with unclear causes of deaths within 20 days following Covid-vaccination, autopsies revealed causes of death due to pre-existing illnesses in only 10 cases. From the remaining 25 cases, in three cases it was concluded from the autopsies that vaccination-induced myocarditis was the likely cause of death, and in two cases it was concluded that this was possibly the case. According to Supplementary Table 1, vaccination was the cause of deaths in further cases as well. For instance, a 38-year-old man with no relevant preexisting disease died due to vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia; a 23-year- old woman with no relevant preexisting disease died due to pulmonary embolism, which may also suggest vaccination as the cause of death.
These findings indicate two important aspects. First, the findings show that Covid vaccinations can cause deaths as a side-effect. Second, the findings show that deadly side-effects of Covid vaccinations are not extreme exceptional cases. The authors of the paper correctly conclude that epidemiological conclusions in terms of incidence or risk estimation cannot be validly drawn from their study. However, the fact that the re-examination of only 35 deaths of only one specific type (bodies found unexpectedly dead at home) in only a small region in Germany (catchment area of the Heidelberg University Hospital) already reveals so many deaths that have likely or probably been caused by a Covid vaccination at least suggests that Covid vaccine-induced deaths are not extremely unlikely.
Here is the full paper, which can also be accessed on ResearchGate.
Dr. Josh Guetzkow is Senior Lecturer in Criminology and Sociology at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. This article first appeared on his Substack page Jackanapes Junction, which you can subscribe to here. Dr. Christof Kuhbandner is Professor of Psychology at the University of Regensburg. Dr. Matthias Reitzner is a Professor in the Institute for Mathematics at Osnabrück University.
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Peter Hitchens is, as usual, right: the death penalty is in principle a good thing, but the present state of Britain’s judiciary makes it impossible to advocate seriously for its reintroduction. The Letby case is a prime example of that, as was the Sally Clark case 20 years ago.
I say we give the convicts a choice: 1) death, or 2) life in prison without parole. Many will actually choose the former. Once on death row, you get 30 days to decide your fate, and if you don’t decide either way by day 29, by default you get executed on day 30. And none of these fancy expensive drugs (or gas, or electric chairs), an ordinary firing squad will do just fine. (Cigarette and blindfold optional.)
I think that having the State in a position where they can decide to end your life on a pre-text is a bad idea right now. You might end up on a trap door with only a rope to break your fall for a misplaced Tweet. On the Letby case, I know that there is a lot of emotion around this, but there are also considerable concerns about the case and verdict and an appeal is likely.
I’m with Blackstone, especially on this type of case. IMHO there are too many cases like Lucia de Berk or Ben Gunn for comfort.
Do we want the death penalty?
Think about it.
Do we want to hand the government on a plate a method of permanently silencing individuals they do not like, when “cancelling” them does not go far enough?
Do we trust the government not to abuse the law? Look at how they used the Public Health Act.
Do some of us suspect that over the last three years, the government has been killing off sections of society they do not like, under our very noses?
As a sticker on a bus stop in north London observed, Boris Johnson wrote about “why is nobody controlling the population?” in 2008 or so.
As for whether LL is guilty or not, with all the circumstantial evidence (funny how she has a highly memorable alliterative name, like Sharon Shoesmith, who was also turned into a public pariah): I would like to think that if the evidence got through a 10-month trial, with all the crown court protocol, and the jury took a month to deliberate, it’s extremely unlikely that she is innocent. There were probably plenty of opportunities for her to get off on a technicality. I don’t know how widely reported the case was early on (as I avoid mainstream media), but I’d never heard of her until the guilty verdict.
The media whipping up a storm about her refusing to appear in the dock has echoes of the baying mob against those who refused to clap, to obey the mythical “only allowed out for an hour”, to wear a face nappy, to take the jab. Even Sunak was interviewed saying he will change the law on this – an easy way for him to be “seen to do something”, just like lockdowns.
Lots of the evidence for Partygate was purely circumstantial, as Saint Boris tried to argue (he didn’t use the word “circumstantial” – it’s too long for him).
And if anything comes to light (we can only hope) about the Plandemic being deliberately started, and the government locking down for sh*** and giggles, evidence for this is likely to be circumstantial.
“I would like to think that if the evidence got through a 10-month trial, with all the crown court protocol, and the jury took a month to deliberate, it’s extremely unlikely that she is innocent.”
Given what many of us have learnt over the last few years, we should IMO definitely be questioning the integrity of the justice system as applied in individual cases. Judges can be bought off and/or threatened, as can defence lawyers. And defence lawyers can be incompetent. And the jury process is also open to abuse and cannot be relied upon, IMO.
The death penalty is acceptable when one has a sound and uncorrupted criminal justice system. We don’t have one. Interestingly , in Old Testament times, which is often condemned for being a bloodthirsty era, criminal convictions required at least two witnesses to the crime, and conviction rested on the eyewitness accounts being in agreement. Anybody giving false witness to the crime was dealt the same punishment as the accused would have received. There was no question of convicting someone on circumstantial evidence either, like simply being in a certain place at a certain time.
If Lucy Letby ever eventually wins an appeal, a lot of people are going to look very stupid, like Lord Denning and many others after the Birmingham Six and Guildford Four won their appeals.
“Disbelief at Reading Festival’s ban on ‘cultural appropriation’ clothes”
Judging by the state the revellers left the campsite in, we should all be grateful that our future World is in such good hands..
And I bet the vast majority of these people just abandoning their unwanted posessions to the four winds consider themselves ‘green’ and ‘eco aware’. Hypocrites.
Thery leave the tents and sleeping bags ‘for charity’ as if anyone actually wants damaged and burned tents, and sleeping bags reeking of urine and vomit. I wouldn’t be surprised if the whole lot ended up in a hole in the ground…
“Democrats’ climate change blame game for Hawaii fire confronted by reality after Maui identifies cause”
…but as always, the lie has been round the world while truth was putting its boots on…
Some arsonists apprehended in Greece are allegedly migrants also.
”For the past week, Greece has once again been plagued by wildfires, particularly in the vicinity of Alexandroupolis, in the northeast of the country, near the border with Turkey, which is close to where 13 Pakistani and Syrian migrants were arrested for arson.
A video posted on social networks last Tuesday says the group was caught red-handed trying to start a fire near the town of Alexandroupolis. They have been charged with illegal entry and attempted arson by a public prosecutor, but one government source says the fire was an “accident.”
https://rmx.news/greece/13-pakistani-and-syrian-migrants-arrested-for-arson-as-deadly-wildfires-erupt-near-greek-border/
..I think it’s still got some way to run..a lot of stuff I’m reading is now saying that while TPTB want people to accept the ‘utility company’ story…they don’t believe that’s true either.
There are still entire families missing presumed dead….including hundreds of children, and still no one is talking about them….….there is still a lot of talk about it being a land-grab?……Still a lot of apparent inconsistencies in the stories…
I have heard that Oprah WInfrey bought the land not too long back, something I’ve not been able to confirm…
The brilliant actor James Woods said this on his X feed, about Maui..which might hold a fair bit of truth!?
“Someday after all the land is appropriated, Hollywood will make a movie about this. Rich people in tuxedoes will celebrate their compassion and give each other little gold statues. And then everything will be forgotten”
“Wikipedia should focus on content creation – not social justice campaigns”
Wikipedia’s content IS a social justice campaign, where they are able to squeeze it in. Who “runs” it is somewhat opaque to me; there are lots of volunteers contributing who I imagine are mainly lefties judging by the articles, but I am not sure how you get to be one of the people who decide stuff when there are disputes – but it’s been taken over by the left just like everything else. Still some good stuff in there on non-political subjects.
Indeed. On TV series and discographies, Wikipedia is fine. It’s also very useful when looking up peoples’ Early Life. But much beyond that it veers off into far-left propaganda.
You only have to look at the Talk page for each article to see how the process is managed.
Only left and far-left leaning publications are acceptable as “trusted sources”, so it’s inherently biased and often full of establishment lies, e.g. Trump and Russia.
On a related note, I use a search blocker called uBlacklist which allows you to block websites from google search results. I find results to be much more useful when you get rid of the propaganda from the Guardian, BBC, Independent, CNN and NYT that Google pushes to the top.
Why isn’t it cultural appropriation when non-Europeans wear European style clothing? Tells you all you need to know. Everything to do with race and culture is just a thinly disguised way to attack white people and our culture.
South Asians should stop using chillis in their food: chillis came from the Americas and were introduced to Asia by evil white people from Portugal.
Thanks; I didn’t know that. I will try to throw that into conversations.
The whole idea that “cultural appropriation” is bad or even avoidable is so absurd that you wonder how it has taken hold and how a civilisation that embraces ever progressed beyond living in caves.
Living in caves was cultural appropriation from Australopithecines, so wash your mouth out with soap. Oh, that was invented by foreigners too.
LOL so true
I know, right? The whole specious concept of “cultural appropriation” being somehow bad is really just silly. Literally EVERY culture in history (and prehistory), except perhaps those tiny few who remain isolated and uncontacted to this day, is “guilty” of this “sin”. Even if it is defined a bit more narrowly, such as picking and choosing what one wants from another culture and discarding the rest, practically every culture is still “guilty” of doing so as well.
Talking of isolated peoples, I once got into an argument on YouTube regarding the inhabitants of the North Sentinel Islands who tend to kill visitors. Some ship ran aground nearby at some point in the past and they went onto the ship and stripped it of stuff that looked useful to them. The narrator of this video I watched made some comment along the lines of “and so, the Sentinelese entered the Iron Age”. I pointed out that the Iron Age was when humans noticed there was iron ore in the ground, dug it up, learned how to manipulate it and made useful stuff with it. That’s not quite the same as finding a crowbar on a ship. Some lamebrain replied to me along the lines of “but yes they were in an Iron Age because they were using iron tools”. No wonder we’re doomed if people really think like that.
Indeed, one’s IQ can easily drop ten points just hearing someone say that.
As did potatoes and tomatoes and corn. These foods spread across the globe but their origin was South America.
Mustn’t forget tobacco too. Actually, isn’t tobacco due for a revival given its serious adverse effects on health?
This really does make for concerning reading when you see an overview of the situation like this. ‘Mohammed’ has eclipsed ‘John’! ‘The great replacement’ going great guns in the UK and across Europe;
”Leicester, Luton and Birmingham are among 14 large areas of England where people who identify as “white” now make up the minority. The highest proportion are found in the London boroughs of Newham (69.2%), Brent (65.4%) and Redbridge (65.2%). Outside London, the highest proportion of non-whites is in Slough (64.0%), followed by Leicester (59.1%), Luton (54.8%) and Birmingham (51.4%).
For the first time since the 7th century AD, England is no longer majority-Christian.
“The British will be a minority by 2066,” wrote David Coleman, the most important English demographer, professor at Oxford, in Prospect magazine. “The 50 percent threshold has no special demographic significance, but it will have considerable psychological and political impact, and the transition from majority to minority will represent a huge shift in cultural, political and religious identity.”
And in the future, to accommodate all immigrants from Asia, England will have to build “eighteen Birminghams”.
Mohammed today is the first name in all of England: the first in Manchester, the first in Nottingham, the first in Leicester, the first in Leeds, the first in Luton, the first in Bradford…Everywhere the same numbers in the biggest British cities.
In just a generation, Islam will be the first religion in all of England.
And to think that just ten years ago, to the great wrath of the liberal intelligentsia, David Cameron defined England as a “Christian country”.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/376190
“…in pursuance of a decision on which they were never consulted, they found themselves made strangers in their own country”, as someone once said.
Yes..although we are told that from the last census around 18% of the UK population is from an ‘ethnic’ background, what they fail to mention is that in schools that jumps to over 35% of children are from ethnic backgrounds….I’m not sure it will take to 2066?…..
Bit ‘rabbit holey’ or maybe paranoid for this early in the day (
) but this does sound kind of prophetic from decades ago. Maybe we are becoming the slowly boiling frogs as our cities turn gradually into prisons..and this is before the internet! Man’s got a point. ( 3min clip )
https://twitter.com/WillingWitness/status/1696202515300458788
Chilling. And quite possibly true.
Their future is in the control which can be exercised in cities, especially “smart” C40 cities. Rural areas are a real problem for them: all those hard to get to places to evade detection, outbuildings they don’t know about, farm animals and fields providing self-sufficiency, mechanical plant allowing unregulated travel/digging/building, undeclared fuel dumps, the odd firearm, plenty of pitchforks, the absence of easy surveillance/control options, not to mention a curmudgeonly local population (of which I am one). Patrick Vallance’s document on imagining net zero admits as much, in saying that institutional trust/compliance is much higher and easier to enforce among urban populations. Hence concerted attacks on rural ways of life. If enough people (1) leave the city and (2) ditch their smartphones, the whole project collapses.
Wow, spot on!
“Wikipedia should focus on content creation – not social justice campaigns”
The naivete of some of these writers is annoying. Do they think that the social justice campaigns in Wikipedia are accidental? And are we not past the times when it is useful to say “X ought to be doing Y instead of Z,” since the whole strategy is to achieve Z?
It’s like saying that Lenin would be better off getting agriculture right instead of worrying about class enemies.
Quite. For starters, it would be helpful if Wikipedia focussed on facts and truth first and held back on narrative-based opinion, censorship and whitewash rather than AI-driven content creation!
“BlackRock hit by backlash after fall in ESG votes”
Since when has an ethically questionable company with a value greater than several countries given a sh*t about anything other than their own agenda? I’m sure they can cope with a few basis points off their share value for a few days while they drive through their plans for world domination.
https://hotair.com/david-strom/2023/08/28/cochrane-review-the-latest-scientific-institution-ruined-by-covid-ideology-n574233#google_vignette
“This is another example of how scientific institutions have been destroying themselves. The narrative requires that mask mandates work; the reality is that they don’t. In a rational world, scientists would simply put out the evidence and let the political actors do their thing. They shouldn’t be activists for or against masks, but rather providers of evidence.
But that is no longer the role of scientists. They have assumed the role of oracles whose job it is to act as con men, backing up the claims of the “right” people.
This works in the short term–most people fall in line, believing that the scientists are non-partisan truth-tellers–and destroys scientific credibility in the long run. People catch on to the con.”
So true
Well blow me down with a feather..we were right..of course we were….
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12453329/99-PERCENT-Covid-deaths-not-caused-virus-official-data.html#:~:text=Nearly%2099%20percent%20of%20%27Covid,the%20virus%2C%20official%20data%20shows.
Nearly 99 percent of ‘Covid deaths’ reported by the CDC each week are not primarily caused by the virus, official data shows.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Covid dashboard shows just 1.7 percent of the 324 Covid deaths registered in the week ending August 19 had the coronavirus as the primary cause of death.
(not behind a pay-wall)
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/authorities-in-denial-over-vaccine-link-to-soaring-pilot-deaths/
PILOT deaths are in the news again as three more have ‘died suddenly’ this month.
Recent freedom of information (FOI) requests to the CAA and the RAF show an alarming increase in the number of commercial and armed forces pilots registered unfit to fly post the vaccination rollout.
pilots:
· 2018 – 1,550 – normal year
· 2019 – 1,663 – first covid cases reported in December 2019
· 2020 – 851 – air travel restricted because of lockdowns, covid infections at their worst, no vaccine until December
· 2021 – 1,594 – vaccine widely available from January and mandated for US and Australian pilots in November but not for British, the majority of whom would have taken the vaccine or faced restrictions flying to countries with vaccine mandates
· 2022 – 2,784 – post vaccination, huge increase in failed medicals – 75 per cent.
I posted this yesterday but am reposting as this information is mind blowing & completely destroys the whole ‘deadly virus pandemic with vaccines as the only way to stop it’ false narrative. It also destroys the avian flu narrative.
It is well worth investing your time watching this. Lots of information is presented & the fact that ‘covid’ symptoms are exactly the same as radiation exposure symptoms is a good way to get folk questioning the need for a ‘vaccine’ to prevent the radiation exposure.
https://rumble.com/user/cbkovess
Hear, hear! LOL!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJs2yZpQFWA
ALISTAIR WILLIAMS …September Lockdowns?
Discussion with John Campbell and Russel Grant…
Full of interest and info…..
Starts with Moderna’s $400 million ‘donation’ to the NIH…Rishi’s investment in Moderna, and Van Tams new job there…but there’s nothing to see here!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hh8CBR78DhQ
Were and are all the variants made in the lab as well?
Some credible researchers from Japan have found anomalies that suggest so.
https://www.steynonline.com/13744/who-making-the-variants
For the time being, “ULEZ: Chaos as fines cancelled”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAnStegdz6Y&list=WL&index=2 This matter was reported on GBN as well.
And another one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQJ3XxKpOoU&list=WL&index=3 A “Black Belt Barrister” production this time.
Quite astonishing that there should be any question of the death penalty in the Letby case. For a start, it has not yet been demonstrated to the public that she is without any shadow of a doubt guilty.