Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch has predicted that Andy Burnham will call a General Election in December as a new poll puts Reform on course to win fewer seats than the Conservatives or Labour. The Mail has the story.
Badenoch said Andy Burnham was a “gambler” who wanted a fresh mandate to tax and spend more taxpayers’ money if he won.
She is the latest figure to suggest an election is not far away as speculation mounts that the Prime Minister could go to the country well ahead of the 2029 deadline.
Speaking to LBC radio, Badenoch said: “I think he might fancy his chances, but we fancy ours as well.”
She added: “I’ve said that if he cannot fund defence, which he needs to fund by cutting welfare, then he should call an election. That’s why John Healey resigned. He said the money that was going into defence was not enough.”
But an election would be a risk for all the main parties. A major YouGov analysis shows Reform would be only the third-largest party at Westminster if an election was held today, having been the largest party in a similar poll last year.
The findings suggest an election now would result in a hung parliament, with Labour losing 170 seats.
While it would still have the most MPs, it would be short of a majority unless Burnham could put together an unlikely ‘rainbow coalition’ with the Liberal Democrats, Greens and the Scottish National Party.
It came as Badenoch unveiled a new Tory policy to cut the welfare bill by preventing claimants from spending their money on alcohol, cigarettes and gambling.
The Tory Leader dismissed suggestions that the state should not decide what welfare claimants can and cannot spend their benefits on.
Asked whether her plan was “too paternalistic” and “infantilising” welfare claimants, Badenoch shot back: “But it’s not their money, it’s taxpayers’ money.”
“This is the thing that we keep forgetting,” Badenoch told GB News.
“The state’s not telling any of us how to spend the money we earn, but if people are being given taxpayers’ money to survive, then we don’t want them gambling with it.”
If the Conservatives were to win their projected 130 seats, it would be a nine-seat improvement on the party’s performance at the 2024 General Election, when it lost its majority in the House of Commons.
The polling suggests Reform UK, which currently has eight MPs, would still make significant gains to finish with 123 seats.
With 253 seats between them, a Conservative-Reform UK coalition would fail to pass the 326-seat bar for a majority in the House of Commons.
YouGov’s modelling – using multilevel regression and poststratification – also showed Labour would be the largest party with 241 seats, with the Liberal Democrats on 71, SNP on 40, Plaid Cymru on 15 and the Green Party on nine.
It also stressed that in more than a third of seats (37%), the winning margin is less than five points, meaning they could go either way.
But In Reform targets this rises to 67%, making them highly vulnerable to tactical voting.
Worth reading in full.
What a mess, and raises the terrifying prospects of another five years under a fiscally incontinent, immigration-happy Left-wing government. Worth bearing in mind, though, that opinion polls consistently underestimate support for the Right and its policies. Plus, of course, once an election is underway, the polls can shift a long way – as Theresa May once discovered.
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Kemi, couldn’t predict that tomorrow is Saturday. i predict the Tories will get hammered at the next election. Totally untrustworthy, as is the liebor party.
Tories gain 9 seats, Reform gain 115 yet this is somehow a big win for Kemi.
Wishful thinking on Badenoch’s part. Her smug grin is as bad as Burnham’s.
Unfortunately I think another spell of socialism is inevitable at the next GE. I don’t think it’ll go a full term and we’ll be back at the polls within a couple of years.
The ‘right’ needs to get it’s act together and build it’s voter base, it’s simply not there yet.
Too many still believe socialism is the answer and until there is total collapse from which to rebuild they will continue to believe in the free stuff ideology that lefties spout.
The MSM (particularly the Tory Press) have for at least 6 months now, been pushing a “Bigging Up Badenoch” campaign. Almost daily articles telling us how wonderful she is and how the CONs are recovering support.
It’s not borne out by actual votes in local authority by-elections. Since May, when the CONs were hammered by Reform for the second year running, the CONs are down 5 local councillors and Reform are up by 11.
This week, in Katie Lam’s Tunbridge Constituency a LibDem beat the Tory in a local by-election.
The CONs won’t win eastern England. That is now a Reform stronghold.
They won’t win in the Red Wall. That’s a Reform v Labour fight.
They won’t win in Scotland or Wales.
They won’t win in the NE or NW. Again, a Reform v Labour fight.
They won’t win London.
The only place they are really competitive is in the SE, South and SW. And that’s a 3-way fight between the CONs, LibDems and Reform.
I don’t believe the polls.
In the only local government destruction by Ranting Rayner to go ahead, Surrey, both the new half county councils will be run by the LimpDumb Ed the Clown party. At least in my area we returned both councillors as Reform.
It must be true then, alternatively
George Box
Kemi has no more of an idea than anyone else.
Full steam ahead into the Iceberg
There is only one poll that counts. Everything else is pure guess work.
Poll of Polls, which is an aggregate has Labour at 24%, Reform 22% Cons 19%, they blow the horn on the polls that give them the answer they want I guess.
Like Sweden we may be too far gone down the demographic and workless leeching point to recover.
I am wondering what miraculous thing has happened that I missed, which has boosted both Labour and Conservatives out of the mid to high teens in the polls into the low twenties and pushed Reform back about 5 points.
Is it the £2 bus fare, another promise to get illegal immigration down, spreading the illegals misery into Middle Class enclaves, No 10 “North”, the Damascene conversion of the Tories now to be for everything they were against and against everything they were for when in Government?
The migrant problem is worse, the number of businesses closing their doors is almost daily, unemployment is increasing, inflation up, cost of living up,crime up, the screws on free speech tightening, Government continues its spending incontinence, plans ever more things, ways, people to tax, borrowing costs are higher then they have been in 18 years and going up, the NHS is the usual sack of shyte, welfare claims keep going up, State pension… who knows… our military is incapable of defending us, the police make the Gestapo look like pussy-cats, heading back into the EU, energy bills climbing higher and higher.
Can anyone explain why the Parties responsible for this are gaining support and… Read more »
I think the muck being slung at Reform by the left wing parties and their tame broadcast media is tending to stick in the minds of voters. We always knew the Uniparty would resort to underhand tactics to squash parties to their right.
I don’t know – the general public aren’t as daft as they can appear, and certainly know a mud slinging job when they see one.
Over to Reform to re grasp the agenda and start talking about the facts and where we find ourselves. Use some of those millions to launch a proper, coordinated comms plan. Challenge the other parties with their decisions so far and the alternative approach Reform
would take and what it would mean…
Most people get their opinions from TV – and TV is captured by the left.
Even GB News succumbs to supporting the failed Tories at times, not helped by having Pierce and ex-Tory Cates who since she joined GB News has gone down in my estimation for example backing the Office Temp Rachel lying on her CV.
Reform needs to get off immigration where views are deeply entrenched, and get on to the economy. People are feeling it, they need to know what is going wrong and why, and where we are going. They see the taxation, but don’t realise we are borrowing three times that just to pay the interest on last months credit card bill.
Reform is making statements about the economy, but the MSM are more interested in reporting on donations and implying sleaze.
I think there are a lot of shy Reform UK potential voters. And they will Roar when in the ballot box. That’s my hope and prayers.
I hope so too.
It’s the postal voting that you haven’t taken into account.
And if Reform and the Tories and Restore formed a pact, how many seats would they get then ?
What is the point in having 3 right leaning parties splitting the vote to produce the final nail in the UK coffin – another Labour led government voted for by a minority of the country spiralling the country down a doom loop from which it will never recover.
The Tories aren’t Right leaning.
But who would lead in Government? Coalitions don’t last. When the horse-trading is over, the policies I voted for will be gone, policies I didn’t vote for will be imposed.
If Reform UK cannot win outright, I shall vote Labour because there’s no point voting for anything else.
The Conservatives have been right-leaning in their campaign messaging for many years, but their record in government has proved it to be empty words. Only Liz Truss seemed genuinely prepared to move to the right, so she had to be replaced.
Spoil your ballot – spolied ballots are counted as a formal rejection of all the available options.
I don’t understand your logic. Why would you vote for a party with policies you disagree with? (I’m making an assumption here – apologies if it is incorrect)
Yes I was thinking same – wouldn’t vote Labour if they paid me…
Because I want the lunatics not voting for Reform to get what they deserve, and because if “the Right” form a coalition, I shall get policies with which I disagree once all the horse-trading is done.
All the calls for coalition of Conservatives and Reform are coming from Conservatives. What does that tell you.?
“What a mess, and raises the terrifying prospects of another five years under a fiscally incontinent, immigration-happy Left-wing government.”
In addition to the previous 14
Previous 30. Blair kicked it off; the Heirs to Blair simply continued the process of destroying the UK.