A shock poll has seen the Conservatives push Reform UK down to third place for the first time since January last year as Nigel Farage’s woes continue and Kemi Badenoch extends her run of rising fortunes. The Mail has more.
More in Common’s latest survey found that 26% of the electorate planned to vote for Labour, down one point in a sign that the so-called ‘Burnham bounce’ is already stalling.
Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative party is in second on 23%, up one point.
Reform UK is on 22%, down one point, its lowest level of support in 18 months.
The Lib Dems meanwhile are on just 11%, closely trailed by the Green Party on 9%.
More in Common found Restore Britain, the hardline rivals to Reform UK founded by Rupert Lowe MP, on 4%.
Sharing their findings, the pollster’s UK director Luke Tryl caveated the surprise news with a warning that “obviously these are margin of error changes, and we should expect things to fluctuate over conference season”.
He added: “But this is the highest Conservative vote share since January of this year, and Reform’s lowest in 18 months.”
Tryl added that the pollster has only been prompting Restore for two weeks, which will affect the vote share. Prompting’ means Restore are included as a named option for those answering the poll, rather than relying on being manually submitted by the individual.
Worth reading in full.
It’s only one poll, of course, and other pollsters come out with slightly different standings that put Reform ahead of the Tories on 23% (YouGov) or even out in front of Labour on 25% (Find Out Now). But it will still surely give cause for some modest celebration among Kemi’s team, and a moment of reflection among Farage’s.
Discussion
Comments
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A lot of people sampled by the poll are simply reacting to the latest political pronouncement on the day they were polled.
The Cons are becoming a one person party, just like Reform were accused of being , and which Restore are.
Let us consider this.
Toby takes the Tory whip and he is a member of that disreputed party.
A single poll discovers, just before the Reform Conference, that the Tories have polled better. For Daily Sceptic that is top line news.
For 300+ polls Reform were first, sometimes by a margin. Did DS make a story about that every time? Monthly? No.
The only newspapers whose reports appear here are Tory facing ones.
I begin to suspect there is a political bias here. I do not need to read this stuff.
I chose to be a FSU member for the potential legal support. As a Reform member can I any longer expect full support. Will I be asked to (re) join the Tories first.
katie Lam is the future
Rupert Lowe is the future.
If the right wing vote splits ( again) Labour will get in (again) .
An incentive for an election before the conservative alignment
Nigel needs to use his “first 100 days” speech at the party conference to get back in the positive news cycle
Why is it a “shock poll”? Aren’t we supposed to be sceptical here? A cynic might observe that there is usually a nasty headwind against a new political party, though.
Hate to say it, but this is all a result of Reform shooting their own feet with naive politics. It doesn’t matter how much they might cry that Farage’s finances are his own business, they have spent most of this year giving the opposition easy open goals to score. Most people don’t read the details we do on the echo chambers such as this site, so it makes it easy for the uniparty to point to the donations/loans from various people to Farage and Tice and say ‘look they are just as sleazy as us’ or Farage’s partner buying a house in Clacton allowing equivalence to be made to Rayner. The MSM then pick it up, drooling over something to attack them on, and report it all as evidence of a dubious backstory for the Reform leadership and that is where most floating voters get their news, if they get news at all. Jokes about buying expensive English sparkling wine may be funny to some but don’t work on poverty stricken housing estates. I would hazard a guess, therefore, that this poll is about the non-voting public turning off again (people Reform had previously energised) than a switch from Reform… Read more »
And so the vultures fight over the rotting carcass….
Reform are far from perfect but they are the best chance we have.
Genuine question – I wonder how many of us commenting here are actively (donations/leaflets/canvassing/local branch support) for Reform?
Not me
Genuine question — I wonder how many of us commenting here want Sri Lankan Muslim Mohammed Zia Yusuf as UK Prime Minister when our Nige steps down to enable it, soon after entering No. 10?
Vote for Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain, because THEY are the best and only chance we have.
Me.
I’m at the Conference. Very good discussions. Today it was all business people and media. Thank goodness BBC nowhere to be seen in the hall.
Busy agenda. Even busier tomorrow. I anticipate thousands in the main hall.
Anyone who buys the BBC/Daily Mail story that Reform are not bouyant should be here to see the real story.
Was the poll held in the Beano? Utter garbage. Nobody will fall for the Conservative lies again. Shame on the DS for printing FAKE NEWS.
I follow the local election results. They seem to be a better indication of support than dodgy polls. Mark Pack (LibDem Peer) provides a weekly summary:
https://www.markpack.org.uk/176850/council-by-election-results-scorecard-2026-2027/
So far this year, since the May local elections (Net):
CONs -4
Lab -6
LibDem +3
Green +3
Reform +8
Doesn’t look like a CON resurgence to me.
Con Home used to publish these results every week but recently I noticed no report. Could they have become bored by the sarcasm.
Hey, Kemi is doing so well. OK still losing local elections but, gosh she is doing well. And on policy: she has adopted small bits of Reform’s policies – what a revolution.
As to the past 25 years, well nothing to do with the Tories: dah, dah, dah please change the subject.
Kemi never liked the Boris wave, never agreed high taxes and spending and definitely did not agree with Net Zero. In fact she was against all that before Reform, don’t y’ know.
The pollsters certainly didn’t speak to me. I will never vote Con again for a variety of reasons going back to inept/shady local party selections in the mid 1980s. My rage over the dishonesty on show then has increased incrementally since.
Expert: Up to 300K Babies Born to Foreign Tourists in U.S. in Last Decade
“...the scale of birth tourism in the United States [and UK] — where foreign tourists and temporary visa-holders arrive in the country for the sole purpose of delivering their children, thus securing them birthright American [and UK] citizenship.”
“…children born to birth tourists,” Camarota continued. “And yet, as American [and UK] citizens, they are able to enter the U.S. [and UK] with no prior screening, attend college and receive financial aid, work at almost any job they choose — even with the federal government — and access all public benefits immediately upon arrival.”
Now, why is there no Ethnic African Woman of the Nigerian Yoruba Tribe trying to replace Israel’s leader Netanyahu? Or China’s leader, or Russia’s leader, or India’s leader?
Are they all racist? Or just sensible?
I don’t believe it.
More skewed polls.
It fails the smell test.
I have never met anyone who used to say they supported Reform who now says otherwise.
I cannot do this anymore. Enjoy the theatre, and remember to tell your kids how you resisted the system by doing everything the system told you to do. God, we’re so utterly fucked.
Made up nonsense to sow uncertainty and doubt, along with all the other little nudges. The break down with Zia. Nigels £5m gift. The Tory non-entity getting himself suspended, Kemi’s chat with Meloni, ‘The right is fractured’, They must work with the Tories’, embrace the Restore voters. All nice little nudges, to try and make Reform less effective. Its so obvious, surely you dont need anyone to explain it. Keep the faith, hold your ground.
More of the same messaging to get you thinking exactly like the establishment want you to. Emotional management. Don’t fall for it.
“But it will still surely give cause for some modest celebration among Kemi’s team, and a moment of reflection among Farage’s.”
That may be so, but I think the main celebrations will be within the Labour Party. Even though they are totally useless, by using the tactical voting sites that the Lib Dems, Labour and The Greens will heavily promote prior to the next election, the left of centre parties will ensure that we will have another socialist (this time likely to be a coalition) government in 2029 to complete the ruination of this once great nation.
I am not sure how the fractured right can overcome the socialists unless they unite – and unless things change dramatically, a united right seems highly unlikely.
I am a “never again and over my dead body” former Conservative voter. I’m thinking that it’s possible that at the next election I may have to swallow my pride, hold my nose and do something unthinkable for the cause (and vote Tory). To do this, at the very least I will need to be convinced that the Conservative Party has purged most of the wets – otherwise it’ll be blue socialism all over again.
I’ve seen nothing to convince me so far. Reform or some fringe party for me. They deserve a chance. Badenoch has yet to say sorry over “covid” – that’s a red line for me
Just step back and think about it for a moment.
are you persuaded the Tory Party would deliver what it says after 14 years of doing their duty opposite. Indeed, including the Blair years when they supported socialist policies and trashing our constitution I think it is 30 years they have promoted non-conservative policies.
Have you not noticed how many (including their leader) who were part of that failure. How many are still around even after the reshuffle.
But finally, why should anyone forgive them for any of this especially Net Zero, failure to deliver Brexit properly and they tried to not do it at all, high inflation, immigration, tax and debt. Low growth, reduced defence and no respect for the people.
Font buy their false and undeserving story. They damaged us so much they must never be allowed back again.
I agree with you and TOF 100%. I share your views. We’ve just had 14 years of blue socialism – which has been sickening to say the least. Unfortunately, the Tories can count on a core vote of around 17- 20% who will always vote for them regardless.
Without that 20%, the right of centre voting block can never get the majority they seek. People’s positions are so entrenched that I have no idea how this can be resolved – but it needs to be, otherwise the right of centre cannot win.
The UK will become a much less pleasant place to be, gradually and then suddenly, and the idiots will wake up and try to pick up the pieces. I think we will be long gone.
It’s heading that way. But how do we stop it? I think a lot of people feel that there is something fundamentally wrong; however are they ready for someone who looks them in the eye and tells them the unvarnished truth about the dire state of the country and the sacrifices we all need to make to fix it, or do they prefer a Prime Minister fannying about baps and a pound off bus fares?
I don’t think we can stop it. Live well and do what you can.
100% agree
I don’t agree. Reform does not need snd would be severely damaged by any association with the Tories.
Besides that there is no evidence the Tories are anything other than a marketing organisation seeking to keep their globalist, Rejoiner, high tax, unlimited immigration MPs in a job.
I am a “never again and over my dead body” person …. and I meant it.
The CONs refused to deliver LEAVE and stitched us up with semi-detached.
They then implemented the worst Tyranny since Cromwell, knowing full well that it was only a risk to those already knocking on Heaven’s door and destroyed the economy.
Next, they imported 4 million 3rd worlders in just 3 years.
Then we learned they had shipped in 40,000+ unvetted Afghans for a life of “free everything” and had kept it secret because they knew the electorate would be apoplectic.
I will never forget and never forgive them.
As for the “under new management” bollocks. She’s Gove’s creature and has been trained by Cameron. No thanks. Not now; not ever.
“The CONs refused to deliver LEAVE and stitched us up with semi-detached.”
😂
Reform will continue to lose ground until they embrace the Restore agenda which is where the young are.
At the end of the day most boomers will revert to tories.
Not this boomer 🙂
Nor this.
Nor this one, nor any of my boomer friends….
No they wont Jack, and no they wont. Reform are not losing any ground, or at least thats what all the local by-elections are saying. Why should they change what appeals to 25% of the voters for what appeals to 4% of the voters.?
Reform are seriously running out of puff. Six points down from the spring elections.
Farage is cocking it up. He ejects anyone to the right of him and ends up saying what they said. Getting rid of Rupert was a massive error.
Why should Farage continually alienate his potential (and likely some of his previous) voters by playing his cards so badly.
He acts like he’s owed these votes. They were merely on loan. He has to earn them, and he’s failing at that.
Your last sentence has it the wrong way round. You imply that his and Restore’s voters want completely opposite policies and to concede any ground to his right will lose more of the 25% he currently has. I think it’s the opposite.
I’d say he has name recognition over Rupert but not much else. He’s afraid of Restore and he should be.
Come on Nige, say it as Rupert says it: “Millions must leave. If that makes me racist, I don’t care”
6 points.? These are polls not elections. That can be done with the slip of a finger in an Excel spreadsheet. Restore don’t want opposite policies. They want fantasy policies, unachievable policies, undeliverable policies. That’s why they appeal only to the hot heads who cant think through how you might manage the consequences of ‘millions must leave’. These are enormous situations woven into the current fabric of our society, in every layer of government and civil service, backed by current law. This is not about waving a wand ‘on day one’ and transporting us all back to 1950. Lowe is, I believe, a Tory sponsored rabble rouser. He is a distraction and nothing more.
It’s not a question of shoving everyone out on day one (although illegals should definitely be pushed out asap) but making it extremely unattractive for those who don’t contribute, don’t respect our laws and our way of life and have no intention of doing, that they don’t want to live here.
Then I must be a rabble rousing hothead 😏
I would like to suggest that you read their words more closely. The media is creating a fantastic stink, but we all here should understand their tactics by now. (I’m a far right, antivax COVID denier don’t you know!)
Really, it’s not as you paint it above. Firm language, unambiguous policies. Putting demographic security front and centre. As Epi says below, the red carpet must be fully and visibly withdrawn.
https://www.restorebritain.org.uk/immigration_border_control
Sounds good to me.
Me, too!
Well said.
“He ejects anyone to the right of him and ends up saying what they said. Getting rid of Rupert was a massive error.”
Nailed it, Groundhog!
Farage and Reform are not even where most of his voters are at on issues such as the compatibility of Islam (most say it isn’t compatible) who I would characterise as to the right of Reform policy. Potential voters maybe voting for Reform as ‘most right-wing party likely to form a Government’. Those who say they will vote Tory are living in la-la land where we all join hands and sing kumbaya with the even more deranged Labour and Greens.
The problem with the Muslim religion is that its followers are directed to promote Islam in every circumstance. It’s called Taqiyya and has half a dozen variants covering any situation in which advancing Islam would benefit it and its followers. This means that the Muslim religion directs its adherents to not tell the truth – to LIE. So no Islamist, even if they deny being one, can be trusted to be honest.
Nor this youngster
And my axe!
AIM HIGH VOTE LOWE MILLIONS MUST GO!
The young always tend to express visceral views.
The elderly (which is what boomers are) tend to stick with their decisions because they are more reasoned
Average voter: Please consocialists rail me again…..
That said poll of polls which is an aggregate has Ref 23%, Lab 22 Cons 19 etc etc
More In Common is not an ordinary polling company ! It is a think tank with a political agenda. The Daily Mail like the DT is no friend of Reform or Restore so understandably they used this poll.
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/