The ‘Keminisation’ of the Tories is Nearly Complete

Political Betting is a weekly column by Mark Littlewood aimed at people who like gambling on politics.

Kemi Badenoch is about to shuffle her deck. A new Conservative frontbench is likely to be in place by the time Parliament returns. While this sort of story obsesses Westminster-watchers like me, it typically elicits a yawn from the wider electorate. Questions of who’s up and who’s down don’t much interest the public especially if they involve politicians who few have heard of.

However, this anticipated Tory change of the guard could have substantial long-term consequences for electoral politics even if the headlines on the day of the reshuffle itself barely make the front page.

What is at issue is the continued ‘Keminisation’ of the Conservative Party. In her first year as party leader, which some saw both as slow and wobbly, Kemi Badenoch appeared to prize party unity above all else. She offered senior roles to all of her defeated leadership rivals and her team even briefed out that she would stick with those appointments right the way through to the General Election.

Things have changed markedly since then. Badenoch has found her feet while her approval ratings (as well as her recognition ratings) have zoomed. Her performances in the Commons have been forensic and confident and she also now strikes a commanding and compelling tone on the media. This has led to her now being the favourite to be the country’s next Prime Minister (albeit in a crowded field and available at the fairly long odds of 4/1 against)

Crucially, she has shifted the party’s policy platform dramatically but more significantly has insisted that Parliamentary candidates will have to commit to departure from ECHR and the abandonment of carbon Net Zero. Reports suggest that this has led to Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt being struck from the approved list. Her pitch seems to be, ‘If you share Reform’s concerns about the problems facing Britain but want a government that actually can fix these problems, I’m your best option.’

The anticipated Shadow Cabinet reshuffle will show us whether Badenoch intends to double down on this strategy rather than merely lean into it.

The key decision revolves around the treasury portfolio. Will Kemi persist with Mel Stride? He comes across as a broadly affable chap but often gives the impression that although he’d quite like to solve some of the country’s economic problems the headache involved in actually doing so means it’s probably not worth the candle.

Andrew Griffith, the Tories’ business spokesman, must have a decent chance of being promoted to the role. He has been a dogged and persuasive opponent of a wide range of Labour’s ill-judged economic policies and would be a highly agile advocate of spending constraint, tax reductions and deregulation, which is exactly the territory the Conservatives need to move onto.

The Tories have seen a revival in the polls (typically now hovering in the low 20s rather than the high teens). However, a further meaningful advance is likely to involve not a Tory strategy as such, but rather a Tory prediction or perhaps even a prayer.

The thinking goes that the more the economy is seen as a top issue by voters and the lower the salience attached to immigration, the better the party is positioned in its battle with Reform. With a grim budget due on October 28th, continuingly dreadful macroeconomic data coming out on a weekly basis and Burnham’s growth plan consisting of little more than capping bus fares, Badenoch will see this as a chance to continue to build in the polls. To do so she likely needs a more radical, active and forward-thinking shadow chancellor. Giving the slot to Griffith would achieve just that.

Elsewhere, surely it is time for two of the most impressive new-intake Tory MPs to be given serious roles? Jack Rankin and Katie Lam are unsullied by the reputation of the previous Conservative administration and would enormously help in giving the party a fresh look and a more modern feel. Badenoch’s first year as leader of the opposition was largely about safeguarding her own leadership and she did this by surrounding herself with familiar faces, but she now has the authority to shape the party wholly in her own image. Rankin and Lam fit that image to a tee.

Unfortunately, it is not possible to find a bookmaker willing to quote on opposition reshuffles, so my betting tip this week will have to revolve around another future possible event.

Although party politics in Britain remains fractured, I feel we may now be moving towards at least understanding how the traditional blocs of Left and Right might look come the time of the next election.

The Labour Party will be the chief cheerleader for some sort of rainbow coalition on the Left. On the Right, hostilities continue between the Conservatives and Reform (heightened by Kemi’s description of working with Reform as “monstrous” and also claiming, wrongly it seems, that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni advised against working with them).

However, there is increasing policy agreement between the Tories and Farage’s party. The differences are much more than nuance but no longer amount to a gaping chasm. Quite how this alters any potential working relationship is unclear but it at least paves a way for one in some shape, size or form should it become necessary.

With all this in mind, I think there is a greater than 50% chance that the next election will yield a majority government of one sort or another. I’m therefore tempted by the lay of 1.67 on the exchanges on “no overall majority”. (As it stands, the markets are saying there is a 60% chance of a hung Parliament, I put it markedly lower than this.) However, before taking a punt, I want to see the outcome of the Shadow Cabinet reshuffle and will also study the fine print as to whether an alliance between different parties that leads to a majority government would count as an outright win or as “no overall control”.

The impending Tory reshuffle won’t set too many pulses racing but it could well signal whether we are moving to a situation in which the broad Right of British politics is settling on a common agenda. That, in turn, could eventually lead to a more stable two bloc (even if not two party) system re-emerging.

Mark Littlewood is a former director of the Institute of Economic Affairs and the Director of PopCon.