Could There Be a Tory Upset in Aberdeen?

Political Betting is a weekly column by Mark Littlewood aimed at people who like gambling on politics.

Spare a thought for the overlooked people of Aberdeen South and also of Arbroath. Both go to the polls in Parliamentary by-elections today in virtue of SNP MPs trading their seats in Westminster for a berth in Holyrood.

With the attention of the political class – alongside a fair tranche of the world’s media – on Makerfield, these two battles north of the border have unfolded with minimal interest.

Perhaps, in one way at least, that might suit the voters in those constituencies. Reports from exasperated residents in Makerfield suggest some are receiving knocks on the door from campaigners at the rate of six or more per day.

The Scottish contests have been somewhat sleepier. As a general rule, sleep by-elections don’t spring surprises. However, with the current odds on Burnham winning a seat back in the House of Commons now 1/6 or tighter, perhaps we should cast half an eye elsewhere for the possibility – however remote – of a political upset.

In Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, there seems limited opportunity for a surprise.  The SNP narrowly won the seat from Labour at the 2024 General Election but is 1/100 in some places to hold on. Whilst the Scots Nats are reeling from the Peter Murrell fraud scandal, it is Labour which has fared even worse over the last two years. The 2024 Westminster elections were a low watermark for the SNP. Any seat it held in a fight against Labour whilst Starmer was cruising to a landslide should stay securely in its column. Scottish voters may be appalled about the criminal use of party funds to buy camper vans, expensive salt and pepper grinders and high-end jewellery, but not to such an extent that they will hand a Parliamentary gain to the chronically unpopular Labour administration in London.

Maybe, just maybe, there will be a different story in Aberdeen South. Stephen Flynn clung on in 2024 with a lead of 8% over Labour, and the Tories tucked in just behind in a very close third place.

They are muttering it only quietly, but the Conservatives clearly think they have an outside chance of victory. They haven’t been able to bus activists into Aberdeen on a particularly meaningful scale (for fairly obvious geographical reasons) but they have been throwing a fair amount of money at the seat and Kemi Badenoch herself has paid a visit (I believe she resisted the temptation of popping into Makerfield either on the way there or on the way back to London).

Is it really possible that the statistical story (if not the headline grabber) of the night will not be a Burnham victory in Makerfield but instead be about the Tories snatching a seat more than 300 miles northwards?

For this to happen, several factors will need to come together, but it seems just about possible that they will do so.

First, given the opportunity to pass a verdict on the extraordinary fraud scandal, voters use the opportunity to register their disgust. The SNP has not been tested at the ballot box since the truth – and scale – of Peter Murrell’s fraud became public knowledge. Perhaps the good people of Aberdeen South find they can’t resist the chance to make this their primary motivator in how they cast their ballot. It seems very evident that if your key aim is to give the Nats a bloody nose then putting a cross in the Conservative box (even if you hold your nose as you do so) is by far the best way of bringing this about. The key question is whether the Murrell scandal is shrugged off as ‘well, all politicians are the same’ or whether it is seen as good reason to severely punish the SNP. The more we are at the latter end of that spectrum, the better the prospects for the Tories.

Second, might we be seeing an incremental but significant build up of Unionists being willing to vote tactically to stop nationalism? South of the border it sounds absurd to suggest that Labour voters might be persuaded to switch to the Conservatives to stop a common enemy. But Scottish politics is now realigning along constitutional lines – if disillusioned Labour supporters tilt towards the SNP as an alternative Left-wing option then the Tories are sunk. But if they lean towards the Conservatives as an alternative Unionist option, it could be game on.

Finally, are the Conservatives still capable of an impressive ‘ground game’? By all accounts, the party’s grassroots operation has become hollowed out in many areas of the country, even if local branches remain functional in the patchy areas of Tory strength. Even in a depleted state, the Tories could operate a serious blitz on a street-by-street level in a by-election in leafy southern England or in the more affluent parts of London.

Aberdeen, however, is an altogether tougher prospect. Have the Scottish party and CCHQ been able to mitigate this through directing central resources into the area? And might their new campaign message of ‘drill, baby, drill’ have particular cut through in that part of the world?

A few things need to fall in the Conservatives’ direction for them to get over the line. You’d still have to think that the SNP machine will prevail. But I find the 4/1 available on the Tories quite tempting and will put a few pounds on it. If I can find 5/1 or better at any bookmaker before polls close, I’ll be minded to risk a few pounds more.

Mark Littlewood is a former director of the Institute of Economic Affairs and the Director of PopCon.