Nigel Farage’s Reform UK appears to be suffering a significant drop in popularity, with a new poll showing support has slumped by five points, while the Tories close the gap with a gain of three points. The Independent has more.
The More in Common poll, released on Wednesday, shows Nigel Farage’s party on 25%. The Tories are edging closer to Reform and are up by three points, on 22%.
The eight-point swing has left Farage’s party with its lowest share in a More in Common poll since April last year and comes as Reform hopes to hoover up as many as 1,500 council seats in the local elections in May.
A number of Reform insiders have privately raised concerns about the impact of Rupert Lowe’s new Right-wing party, Restore Britain, which has been measured at 4% in other polls.
Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth who left Reform last year after a massive row with then chairman Zia Yusuf and Farage, told the Independent: “We are causing them big problems. People are bored with [Farage].”
The findings also raise questions over how much of an asset Farage still is to his party. Although his net approval rating of –20% among voters is still well above Sir Keir Starmer’s –43%, it is his worst personal result since last year’s election [sic].
Kemi Badenoch is on –13%, Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey is on –14% and Green leader Zack Polanski is on –19% – his lowest rating yet.
Luke Tryl, Director of More in Common, emphasised that “this is just one poll”, but said the results “match some dips with some of our fellow pollsters”.
Nevertheless, after two polls in a row with Reform on 30%, which has been the highest of the main polling companies, More in Common appears to be moving to around the same findings as YouGov, which has had Reform on 24%, the lowest polling company for Reform. …
But Reform’s support is remaining strong in many parts of the UK, with a JL Partners MRP poll predicting it will be the second biggest party in Wales at the local elections, with 29 of the 96 seats, behind Plaid on 33. The result would be a disaster for Labour, which would be reduced to third place on a mere 17 seats, losing control of Wales for the first time.
Meanwhile, Labour sources have also been buoyed by the poll result, which puts it ahead of the Greens on 21% to 13% after YouGov had put Polanski’s party ahead.
Worth reading in full.
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I have always found I get a better idea from the Czechs.
Whilst I put little store in polling if the results are accurate it will be a disaster for Wales with a Plaid/Labour coalition. Reform, in second place, will be powerless and Wales, a ‘sanctuary country’ will continue it’s inexorable decline.
Socialism has never worked in Wales but the Welsh are too stupid to accept that. The Welsh voted for Brexit but seem not to understand the consequences of a Plaid/Labour pact.
These “polls” especially Yougov gear the questions to get the answers they want, its results that matter, and if Rupert is so cocksure why is he not fielding more candidates?,
We’ll get a much better idea of real voting intentions on 7 May.
The weekly local by-election results don’t show an improvement in support for the CONs. Reform is usually in the 30%+ range.
Does anyone trust the UK mainstream media anymore?. Remember how the US Democrats were going to sweep Trump from power?…..Fake news. The chaos you see around you was started by the Liberal infested Conservative Party…FAKE NEWS.
What a drag.
Vote ConArtist and get conned and get the blob.
I cannot understand how people could possibly forgive and forget all the Tory betrayal, the Boris wave, net zero and all the rest. This leopard hasn’t changed its spots. If people vote Conservative then the country gets what it deserves.
Biased polls seeking to discourage Reform voters.
Same tactics as Brexit.
Wait for May 8.
Notwithstanding this is an article from the Independent, it would appear that erstwhile Reform supporters are now struggling to differentiate between one old and one new Establishment party – Conservatives and
RetreadReform.The headline compares Nigel Farage’s support with that of ‘the Tories’.
I call BS. It’s Kemi Badenoch who is drawing the support away from Farage – not the Tories. Don’t be fooled. If the Tories win at the next GE, and if she’s still leader, Badenoch will face a Tory Wet revolt and will not be allowed to implement most of what she has suggested.
I think there is more chance of us single handedly reopening the Straight of Hormuz than the tories winning anything, and quite rightly too – they deserve to be wiped out for the opportunity they pissed away…
Strait of Hormuz
Good to see Restore get a mention!
Rupert Lowe is splitting the right of centre vote. Kneel and Thieves will be loving this. Nothing will be good if RL opens the door allowing a left wing coalition in. Restore voters should also consider what would happen if Rupert Lowe is not around to drive things forward. The party stops dead in its tracks.
If you want a proper change from the Uniparty, it (prgamatically) has to be Reform.
I’ve not looked at exactly what Lowe is saying but Imo it’ll be pretty close to what Reform say they’ll do. It’s far more likely to be a clash of personalities than major differences of opinion that led to Lowe being suspended from Reform then going his own way.
If needs be Farrage and Lowe should be locked in a room together until they bury the hatchet and Lowe rejoins Reform, possibly as deputy leader alongside Tice so the don’t split the right wing vote any more than the CONservatives are already doing.
Imo, Lowe is the loosest of loose cannons. He is an egotist. He’s not a team player (Farage is, despite all the accusations). He would destroy Reform, which is part of the reason he was booted out in the first place.
I know several people who know Lowe from Radley days, from shooting, and from work. They all say the same, and it’s not encouraging I’m afraid. His ideas and presentation seem good, and definitely ahead of Reform’s, but that’s his limit, he would not be a good leader
What were the general comments? He was a control freak etc?
Are you kidding after what Farage & Yusuf tried to do to Rupert Lowe? You really don’t think reporting him to police over some petty triviality and trying to get him arrested is of any significance? Perhaps you should take a look at the interview Andrew Eborn did with the journalist Martin Jay
https://youtu.be/KFYghpe5OpQ?si=v2Cplm9qlulRl_AO
to get an insight into Farage’s
character. I’m sick to death of people accusing others of splitting the vote on the right when it’s their own pet party doing the splitting
Who???
I believe there is only one centre right party that is capable of getting in, and its Reform. Rupert Lowe has some good points and ideas, but we can’t afford to split the centre right vote. Hopefully he’ll act as a ‘far-right’ lightning rod for all the accusations of the same, and make Reform seem more palatable to more people, who can hold their nose while voting to get the Uniparty out.
Saying that some of Reforms recent appointments I’m very unimpressed with… let’s hope they aren’t a busted flush…
There is relentless negative coverage of Reform in the MSM. Yet, what I see of Reform from the inside is a huge positivity. Put simply, Reform voters believe in something worth fighting for.
I was an enthusiastic supporter of Reform even to the extent of becoming a branch treasurer. However, I suffered similar treatment to that meted out to Rupert Lowe. Maybe the nastiness is just how politics is.
I will vote tactically at any future election
Most of us who’ve got involved with Reform at branch level are finding the same thing; egos, infighting, difference of opinions on how things should be done etc…But ultimately, I felt that there is still no alternative – if Reform don’t win hugely in these May elections, and subsequently in a general election, then the UK is completely finished. So we push on regardless! I think politics is the same on every side – a bit dirty and certainly imperfect, but the only choice we have!?
With all due respect, what is worth fighting for is your family and friends, not a corrupt system. Reform voters believe in a way to be, but their mistake is in believing the system will rubber-stamp their beliefs. It will not. The system exists to maintain the system, it does not exist to maintain some romantic notion of ‘democracy’. Everyone that’s still buying a ticket for this pantomime is buying a ticket to watch their children hung. The system must be exposed as unquestionably illegitimate and voting maintains its legitimacy.
Polls tell you plenty—about the pollsters. Bugger all about the voting intentions of the punters involved however.
Exactly. The proof is in the pudding, and many will be reluctant to declare their true voting intentions.
^This.
Not out of shame but because we can’t trust them not to ‘spin’ it.
Pollsters behave as though they have a right to know our voting intentions. They do not.
Sorry to be the pedant, but it’s “The proof of the pudding is in the eating”
I agree with you otherwise.
I was going to write the same. I hate a mangled saying
Polls always seem to underestimate the populist/right wing vote. They failed to predict the Brexit vote, predicted a pretty small majority for Bojo in 2019 and in the US have always been wrong about the level of support for Trump.
I suspect it’s because the people running the polling organisations will mostly be younger graduates who are left wing/progressives and the algorithms they use to try and account for regional, age and other differences that have a large effect on how people vote are biased, possibly just unconscious/confirmation bias, possibly deliberate.
“Its not who votes that count, it’s who counts the votes.” Attrib J Stalin.
I’ll never buy a ticket for the Proles Theatre again, but you’ve got be out of your mind to even think about voting for the fake Tory filth that betrayed their voters in such spectacular fashion.
Looking forward to the local elections results for a better assessment.
My neighbour across the road is standing to be one of our two councillors for the new East Surrey council for Reform. He used to be a staunch Tory.
I follow the weekly by-election results and Reform rarely get less than 30% support albeit on usually poor turnouts. The Tories rarely get more than 15%, same with Labour.