On Friday, I argued that 2022 was a normal year for mortality in England and Wales – contrary to some recent headlines. My two main points were that 2022’s age-standardised mortality rate was the third lowest ever, and age-adjusted excess mortality was negative (fewer people died than normal, after taking account of ageing).
The article attracted some criticism. One objection was that absolute number of deaths is a better measure than the age-standardised mortality rate, and the former shows substantial excess mortality in 2022. Another objection was that the second half of the year saw substantial excess mortality, even if the first half of the year did not.
I disagree with the first objection: the ASMR is a very widely-used statistic, which is closely related to life expectancy. So if you’re sceptical of the ASMR, you ought to be sceptical of life expectancy as well.
It’s also an odd objection coming from sceptics. When lockdown proponents were citing the absolute number of deaths in 2020 as evidence for the necessity of lockdown, it was sceptics who pointed out that the ASMR wasn’t that unusual. The chart below, taken from a BMJ article, was widely shared by sceptics on social media (and rightly so):
If you say the absolute number of deaths is the right measure to use, you have to accept the mainstream narrative that 2020 was a very unusual year. In fact, 2020 wasn’t a very unusual year. But we only know that from looking at the ASMR.
The second objection is slightly stronger. The latter half of 2022 did see non-trivial excess mortality: the ASMR was about 5% higher than the five-year average. If this trend continues, it will make sense to talk about unusually high mortality.
On the other hand, the first half of the year saw negative excess mortality: the ASMR was about 6% lower than the five-year average. This means the positive excess mortality in the second half of the year could be due to ‘dry tinder’: fewer people died in the first half, so there were more at risk of dying in the second.
Last time, I plotted the annual ASMRs in England and Wales. But we can also look at them by the month. Here’s the monthly ASMR in England, going back to January of 2001:
The black line is a third-degree polynomial (a cube term) fit to the data from 2001 to 2019. It gives a prediction of what the monthly ASMR would have been if the pre-pandemic trend had continued.
Looking at the most recent months, the data (in grey) are not too far from the black line – indicating that mortality is not particularly unusual. An important caveat is that mortality typically peaks in January, and the latest datapoint is from December. So the grey line will probably rise substantially next month.
However, notice that the mortality peaks in 2015 and 2018 were both very far above the black line, even though there was no pandemic or crisis in the NHS. Just because mortality comes in higher than expected for a few months, doesn’t mean there’s anything wrong.
It’s possible that a serious crisis is developing in the NHS, and mortality will remain elevated for some time. However, we’ll only know that once we have the data. At the moment, there’s no reason to panic.
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Madness Oxford Bans Gas Hobs
latest leaflet to print at home and deliver to neighbours or forward to politicians, media, friends online.
Campaign to stop your local council destroying your local countryside, freedom and finances with such schemes.
This 8min video effectively debunks any pretense that UNWRA are merely a humanitarian organization and a force for good. A very insightful look at what goes on in one of the refugee camps in Askar.
https://twitter.com/KosherKockney/status/1730545956356059502
Common knowledge that Hamas has run UNWRA in Gaza for a very long time
Pertaining to the above video, this article looks at a report about what kids are being taught in Muslim schools. Indoctrination from a young age is key. No wonder Sweden are planning to close these schools down. They do not belong in any Western country;
https://www.copticsolidarity.org/2023/09/26/indoctrinated-to-hate/
“Indoctrination from a young age is key” which seems to be the objective in state-controlled education in general.
Let’s hope no-one is being raised on selective anti-gentile teachings of the Talmud either.
“Let’s hope no-one is being raised on selective anti-gentile teachings of the Talmud either.” I know nothing about the Talmud but let’s for a moment assume it contains “anti-gentile teachings”. My answer would be that I would rather it didn’t, but honestly, so what? How many Jews are there on planet Earth? How many are there ever likely to be? How many Muslims are there on planet Earth and how many are there ever likely to be?
Quantity is not necessarily a deciding factor. Regardless of the religion, if those in positions of power and influence adhere to the negative aspects of their scripture it can have a disproportionate impact.
mRNA vaccine manufacturers, employees, regulators and politicians are a drop in the ocean of the world population. Shared goal, disproportionate impact.
Well yes, but Jews number around 20 million (and one smallish country), Muslims about 2 billion (and many dozens of countries, some with notable natural resources).
People only have influence if others allow themselves to be influenced.
The majority of us will be influenced to some extent which is why the world is the way it is. It must currently be more difficult otherwise censorship and intensive propaganda would not be so necessary.
True, though ultimately the responsibility lies with our fellow citizens too many of them have been, and continue to be, asleep or indeed actively promoting the demise of our civilisation.
“Hollywood hunger strikes won’t save a single Palestinian” – Actress Cynthia Nixon is dramatically calling for a ceasefire. But it’s going to take more than skipping your smoothie, Cynthia, writes Michael Deacon in the Telegraph.
I wonder if Ms Dixon had been told to lose a few pounds?
Boris Johnson is complaining about woke after being in a position to deal with it head-on but did nothing of note other than let it accelerate.
“We are sticking up for Ukraine because we believe in freedom and democracy and human rights”
He makes this sound like a playground spat but perhaps that’s his way of distancing himself from all the deaths he has caused. Weakening the Russian regime, intelligence gathering on their capability, buying time to re-establish UK forces, rebuild contracts, arms sales have no part of this?
Was RT banned only because of the Ukraine war or because they had also been warning of woke years before Boris did nothing about it?
The news is reporting that he is to make an unreservedly insincere and meaningless apology at the COVID inquiry.
These COP summits are really rather like Anti-Christmas. Instead of wondering what you’re going to get given, you wonder what they’re going to take away from you.
Yet we are happy to sell our far more crucial utilities to foreign states…
“Old Sky receivers to become obsolete”
Bye sky!
Fu@#ing shyte anyway
Why is sky Australia so good?
“Why is sky Australia so good?”
It (like Fox News in the US, and the New York Post newspaper) is still owned by the Murdoch family. Sky UK is part of some global media empire that is as woke as they come (as almost all of them are). What other notable global firms in the media space are non-woke? X – owned by Musk. Can’t think of any others. Not many other big firms of any kind are notably non-woke, except for those that are still privately owned.
Thankyou for explaining that, I love watching cheeky Rita and chums ridiculing the Australian ptb with good common sense, if only we had that here!
They were good during covid. Here’s an early clip from April 2020 with Johan Giesecke (Tegnell’s mentor and former boss) telling them Australia has it all wrong: Former Chief Scientist reveals coronavirus “is going on all around us” | Sky News Australia
NOT MY KING!
How dare he? After pledging to the oath of sovereignty? Fu#k you Chortles!
“The climate scaremongers: Luvvies’ C4 show is a series of lies”
And this influences the 15 brain dead people that watch C4?
“City roads should be ‘ripped out completely’ to fight pollution, says Government adviser”
Honestly, where do these lunatics spring from? Doesn’t he know how all those city dwellers and businesses get their food, clothes, lattes, pet food…endless list? Does he not see that pollution comes with a consumer society? That pollution could be dealt with if there was a political will to do so but the councils and Westminster would rather focus on diversity targets and transgender issues and bogus climate change actions and penalising the people than actually making life better, more bearable, cleaner etc. This man needs his P45 like I need my second coffee of the day…urgently!
Maybe they expect a return to the railway’s?
Or rip out the tram lines!
Ah, been there, done that!
For the record, CO2 and water vapour are not pollutants.
Yes, I know EB. Did I refer to those? No.
True, but steam is by far the worst greenhouse gas! So when we’ve bankrupted the western world offsetting carbon, steam will be the new target!
Greenhouse gas? Come on Dinger.
Does he not see that pollution comes with a consumer society? That pollution could be dealt with if there was a political will to do so
London’s (for example) air quality is better than it has been for more than 100 years. This is, in part, why we don’t need ULEZ.
“Hollywood hunger strikes won’t save a single Palestinian”
True, But try to stay positive! All opinionated Hollywood ‘actors’ lovey, should stay on hunger strike!
Oh the whining that would solve!
“Working with too many white people harms your mental health”
Then f#@k off back to Aisa and be amongst your own, traitor!
‘Asia’ typo! Soz
Nihal was born and brought up in Essex. His comment about working with too many white people is crazy but he is otherwise an excellent radio presenter. It just shows what the BBC’s woke ideology is doing to people.
“I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.”
– Martin Luther King Jr
True, but why would a fish hate the land it lives on when it knows it should be in the water?
Oh right, but haven’t all his shows and career been based on Asian life and culture? Being born in Britain doesn’t necessarily make you British if you still abide by your parents cultures and beliefs!
Fun Da Mental and Punjabi MC, Badmarsh & Shri, Mentor, Sona Family and DJ Sanj
Asian Beats
Eastern eye
Asian network
Best Radio Show” at the UK Asian Music Awards (UK AMAs)
Asian music arts and culture show – Desi DNA alongside Adil Ray and Anita Rani
Arthanayake stated that working within an “overwhelmingly white” environment at the BBC depressed him and affected his mental health
“It’s really affecting me that I walk in and all I see is white people”
Racist twat !
So I’ll restate my post!
Sorry my reply was deleted by DS.
I’ll try it this way, why has his whole career been based on Asia and its culture? and then he bleats about working with white people!
That is just pure racism!
Being born in Britain doesn’t necessarily make you British!
“Royal racism’ hoo-ha shows how wokery hurts the West”
Couldn’t give less of a flying fu@k about the royals!
“Net Zero fanaticism now means overlooking Assad’s grotesque war crimes”
Let’s be clear: the West is determined to change the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Now, I have no inside knowledge about the Assad regime and can’t say for sure that this chemical attack was orchestrated by Assad in desperation but doesn’t it suit the West to be able to pin such an atrocity on the man they wish to remove. It’s well documented that the West want to remove him leaving Iran as the one remaining ‘rogue’ state. Syria is rich in resources – oil, gas and phosphates (fertilisers) and, most importantly, it also has pipelines capable of bringing gas to the Mediterranean. So whatever stories are spun in the msm are designed to continue the drip-drip of propaganda that will inevitably lead, at some point, to the country being taken out. I read the article linked and have to say it is a pile of hypocritical dog poo – what else could you expect from Tobias Ellwood? It fails to mention or allude to the West’s appalling record on human rights violations, the massacres it has supported and the myriad of actions to undermine the Syrian state. Assad is no saint but picturing him as the ‘tyrant in his palace’ as if he’s an ogre is so childish. It doesn’t even attempt to keep things in perspective. What really gets me is this paragraph though:
“The 100-year international taboo on the use of chemical weapons is evaporating. They are still used intermittently in Syria and, in 2018, were deployed with impunity in Salisbury on a far smaller scale. We cannot fully dismiss the possibility of a chemical attack in Ukraine if it might prevent Putin from conceding defeat. And with Russia sitting behind Iran, and Iran behind Hamas and Hezbollah, we cannot dismiss their use elsewhere.”
We know where this is going. Tying up all the loose ends in a convenient way to point fingers and prepare the ground for war against Iran. However, to say that chemical weapons are only used by these ‘evil doers’ as Bush Jr with his clumsy syntax would probably have said is disingenuous in the extreme as Covid ‘vaccines’ – a chemical weapon if ever there was one – continue to ramp up the death and injured toll in the millions.
“ can’t say for sure that this chemical attack was orchestrated by Assad in desperation “
I don’t like Assad but yes this was a total BS false flag operation (as usual). UK Column has covered this quite a bit.
And let’s not forget the US involvement with Iraq in its use of chemical weapons during the Iran Iraq war, agent Orange, depleted uranium, phosphorus, on and on and, as you say, spike mRNAs.
Please, no more links to Johnson’s Mail column.
Seconded. The man is a failure and a scoundrel.
A scoundrel is an adult naughty boy. Bozo is way, way, way beyond naughty boy.
True. Perhaps in his personal life he qualifies as a scoundrel. I wouldn’t want him to date one of my daughters.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12813551/Fears-Britain-hit-outbreak-Chinas-mystery-pneumonia-experts-blame-lockdowns-alarming-surge-myco-bug-sweeping-world.html
Funny how there’s always an ‘outbreak’ of chest infections shortly after & during the flu jab season….
Miri gives her perspective on the risk to children from the nasal flu mist campaign.
We have to protect the children but not using the methods & routes recommended but by protecting them from the government agencies ‘solutions’.
https://open.substack.com/pub/miri/p/deciphering-the-deception
Thurrock residents tell of life under a ‘bankrupt’ council
Hmm. An interesting way of phrasing it.
Life under a council?
The council is supposed to serve the local residents – not the other way around.
“The desperation of Olivia Colman’s climate change video”
How can you divest in the very commodities that help keep us all alive? Shelter, food, warmth and water! What a silly little actress!