On Friday, I argued that 2022 was a normal year for mortality in England and Wales – contrary to some recent headlines. My two main points were that 2022’s age-standardised mortality rate was the third lowest ever, and age-adjusted excess mortality was negative (fewer people died than normal, after taking account of ageing).
The article attracted some criticism. One objection was that absolute number of deaths is a better measure than the age-standardised mortality rate, and the former shows substantial excess mortality in 2022. Another objection was that the second half of the year saw substantial excess mortality, even if the first half of the year did not.
I disagree with the first objection: the ASMR is a very widely-used statistic, which is closely related to life expectancy. So if you’re sceptical of the ASMR, you ought to be sceptical of life expectancy as well.
It’s also an odd objection coming from sceptics. When lockdown proponents were citing the absolute number of deaths in 2020 as evidence for the necessity of lockdown, it was sceptics who pointed out that the ASMR wasn’t that unusual. The chart below, taken from a BMJ article, was widely shared by sceptics on social media (and rightly so):
If you say the absolute number of deaths is the right measure to use, you have to accept the mainstream narrative that 2020 was a very unusual year. In fact, 2020 wasn’t a very unusual year. But we only know that from looking at the ASMR.
The second objection is slightly stronger. The latter half of 2022 did see non-trivial excess mortality: the ASMR was about 5% higher than the five-year average. If this trend continues, it will make sense to talk about unusually high mortality.
On the other hand, the first half of the year saw negative excess mortality: the ASMR was about 6% lower than the five-year average. This means the positive excess mortality in the second half of the year could be due to ‘dry tinder’: fewer people died in the first half, so there were more at risk of dying in the second.
Last time, I plotted the annual ASMRs in England and Wales. But we can also look at them by the month. Here’s the monthly ASMR in England, going back to January of 2001:
The black line is a third-degree polynomial (a cube term) fit to the data from 2001 to 2019. It gives a prediction of what the monthly ASMR would have been if the pre-pandemic trend had continued.
Looking at the most recent months, the data (in grey) are not too far from the black line – indicating that mortality is not particularly unusual. An important caveat is that mortality typically peaks in January, and the latest datapoint is from December. So the grey line will probably rise substantially next month.
However, notice that the mortality peaks in 2015 and 2018 were both very far above the black line, even though there was no pandemic or crisis in the NHS. Just because mortality comes in higher than expected for a few months, doesn’t mean there’s anything wrong.
It’s possible that a serious crisis is developing in the NHS, and mortality will remain elevated for some time. However, we’ll only know that once we have the data. At the moment, there’s no reason to panic.
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I believe the Royal Air Force are often referred to as ‘civvies in uniform’
What is the purpose of our military..? If, as I fear, we are invaded by the Forces of the Isle of Man, we will be over-run in days. France 1939 all over again…
The modern British army of the 21st century
“I dont want the machine gun, you have it”
” No, I don’t want it, it’s nasty, and stop calling me him, I’m they”
“Oooo you said you were them!”
” Oooo make it work, quick!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WK33sl64YNw
Armstrong and Miller…RAF Pilots compendium!
LOL!!
I thought that sounded suspiciously like an April Fool’s joke! However the excellent news beneath it about UK Athletics finally seeing sense negates the RAF off-the-charts lunacy. My chakras are realigned and I can now commence with my day.
“Chocks away Ginger” what o!
My suggestion for a new RAF motto is: ‘Per Diversitas Ad Astra’ – replacing the adversity of Ardua with diversity!
Given the RAFs propensity to use drones to kill people in the most cowardly manner perhaps a reboot (singular) and call them The Bader-Meinhoff gang.
“Number of civil servants reporting long Covid impact was double public rate”
…and the self-employed who have a long Covid rate of 0.00%
Civil servants never, ever miss an opportunity to throw a sickie and “Long Covid” is just the gift that keeps on giving.
“U.K. Athletics will ban transgender women from competing in the female category from Saturday – following World Athletics’ regulations in all competitions
I hope historians next century will look back at the five years that this was permitted and scratch their heads.
Odd that action is immediate by UK authorities when an international body tells them but when the UK public express their view – nothing!
“Ministers come under pressure to scrap ‘preposterous’ and ‘dangerous’ LTNs as it emerges 240 ambulances were delayed by low traffic schemes”
As with all left wing ideas, they are created perfect, first time, and no further thought is necessary. If it is discovered that they don’t actually work, then it needs more money, more people, and it needs to be applied more rigorously.
Stupid b’stards…
I received an email about 15 minute cities policy this morning from the Parliamentary Debates lot. As it’s not a national policy, despite their being national funding attached to implementing it, parliament has washed its hands of this issue…
What a bl**dy cop out!
The Government has responded to the petition you signed – “Require public referendums on 15-minute town and city policies”.
Government responded:
Click this link to view the response online:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/633819?reveal_response=yes
Thanks,
The Petitions team
UK Government and Parliament
Thanks for that BB.
The response you have posted reads like an actual Policy Document which has been issued to all local councils but obviously it is NOT “national policy.”
Rather a lot of buck passing going on methinks….
Without a doubt. Why is the national government pushing the ghettos policy but trying to kid everybody that it has nothing to do with them?
So 20% of households in the US has lost someone to COVID or vaccines.
The average size of a household in the US is just over 3 people.
Which means that 5% of Americans have been lost to Covid or a Covid jab.
It seems to me that a little under 5% of the population has been lost to reality.
Not only do I not know anyone who died “of” or “with” “covid”, no-one I know was hospitalised with it either. A few people I know were laid low at home – flu territory. That’s it. The rest either didn’t notice they were ill or had some kind of cold thing.
Whereas I definitely know people who have been killed by the clot shots.
Is there anything that can make you doubt the entire medical profession more than the fact that it’s the sole remaining place where the superstition of masks persists?
How on earth can I put my life in the hands of someone that makes me put on a mask to see him and talk to him so he can be protected from my viruses?
“Most health care facilities have no plans to discontinue universal masking, survey shows”
I’m doing rehab after an operation and always walk through the hospital without a mask. If the administrations aren’t going to let go of this nonsense, we need to do it for them.
Yes. But I think my hospital allows you to drift around the corridors with a naked face but only to mask up in ‘clinical areas’.
It’s Disney science as per usual.
I received my pre-publication order two days ago for “Values, Voice & Virtue. I have so far only read the Introduction and it is already clear it will address many of the sorts of issues which David Goodhart has done. Maybe it is Matt Goodwin’s literary style but at times he appears to be writing as if he is an analyst for the left trying to work out what went wrong; at other times he produced, what I though, were direct hits against the entire political class.
I plan to complete the book on holiday but that is some way away. Perhaps I will have to get started sooner.
This looks like a good read. It was highlighted in an interview of the author, Feargus O’Connor Greenwood, by Richard Vobes yesterday. It’s called: 180°
Much of this many of you will already know but this is apparently well researched and I liked the tone of voice that the author had and his sense of wry humour in the interview.
It’s worth watching the video to get a sense of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBpn8DDWjvs
You can have a look at the contents through Amazon UK but I try not to buy stuff from Amazon and would rather support local bookshops through The Hive Bookshop.
Every day feels like April fool’s day….and every day I wait for the punchline!
“Number of civil servants reporting long Covid impact was double public rate”
(Long covid: translation: vaccine damage)
Sick pay for life, out of the public purse!
Aww….anyone got a nice parting message for him??
Sir Patrick Vallance
@uksciencechief
Signing off as Government Chief Scientific Adviser today.
Thank you to everyone who has supported me over the past five years.
The future of science advice in government is in good hands with Dame Angela McLean and I wish her every success.
I wait to be proved wrong, but sadly I don’t think we will see any change anytime soon…..same old, same old…..
In 1987 Angela McLean received her PhD from Imperial College London with a thesis in Mathematical models in the epidemiology of measles in developing countries
McLean’s research interests are in the use of mathematical models to aid our understanding of the evolution and spread of infectious agents.
Imperial College. Models. Epidemiology. Damehoods and Knighthoods all round…
Say no more, squire, say no more.
Oh F. A Pantsdown on Duracells.
The message I would like to give him would probably get me banned.
I will just say that I do not wish him well and I hope the flames of hell beckon to him sooner rather than later, the turncoat.
F O Vallance. Hopefully the next time we see you it will be in court on charges of mass murder.
“Values, Voice & Virtue is now one of the biggest selling books in the country”
“alienation of ordinary voters.”
I was brought up to believe, “if you don’t vote son, you won’t have a say”
Now it’s “if you want to kick them in the knackers, DON’T VOTE! (Berlins recent net zero vote)
“Are orcs ‘racist’? The culture wars controversy tearing Dungeons & Dragons apart”
Derrrr!
Hows your electric bill just lately? You f-ing freaks!
It really is April fools day isn’t it?
Don’t forget, you’ve only got till 12pm! Or your the fool
Have we got a problem with Log in? This is the third consecutive day that I have had to Log in and it is a bloody nuisance.
https://www.upday.com/uk/i-am-still-alive-declares-pope-as-he-leaves-hospital?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral
A sad day for the Catholic Church.
I sometimes think that being a ‘sceptic’ requires a fair amount of sadistic commitment…to keep looking at stuff we have known for a long time, but not being able to stop..because we have to keep repeating it and putting it out there….
This is an interview (update) from Clayton Morris at Redacted with Sonia Elijah.
The Cover-Up: How Pfizer and Biontech FALSIFIED lab results in order to bring vaccines to market….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1_zlrORtmk
Number of civil servants who said they had long covid over general public rate looks to me to be triple the rate rather than double.
3.3% to over 10%. Er, hello?
So, no surprise there then. The professional coffee drinkers of the workforce took the opportunity to do even less. See also teachers, doctors, nurse/choreographers.
BTW When were the materials for the vast amount of pandemic signage ordered? When were the contracts issued? So many signs on our high street within weeks. Seems an unfeasible fantasy lead time. Any council buffs?
“Carmakers to ration petrol and diesel car sales until 2030 ban”
So instead of making evs cheaper they plan to force the increase in prices of every thing else! These dirty ba%#£ds in government are beyond language, they should be hung for treason! I hate politicians, all of them!
Suppose it’s all for our own good?!
Well, if you didn’t believe our own governments were trying to stop us having personal transportation of any kind, read this and weep!
Our western governments are at war with their own voters,their own people!
I’am f-ing sick of the lot of them!
Voting is pointless, there is no democracy, you’ll get the same shyte who ever you vote for so DONT VOTE! voter apathy is the only voice you have left now!