A major survey into the accuracy of climate models has found that almost all the past temperature forecasts between 1980-2021 were excessive compared with accurate satellite measurements. The findings were recently published by Professor Nicola Scafetta, a physicist from the University of Naples. He attributes the inaccuracies to a limited understanding of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), the number of degrees centigrade the Earth’s temperature will rise with a doubling of carbon dioxide.
Scientists have spent decades trying to find an accurate ECS number, to no avail. Current estimates range from 0.5°C to around 6-7°C. Without knowing this vital figure, the so-called ‘settled’ science narrative around human-caused climate change remains a largely political invention, not a credible scientific proposition. Professor Scafetta has conducted extensive work into climate models and is a long-time critic of their results and forecasts. In a previous work, he said many of the climate models should be “dismissed and not used by policymakers”. Along with around 250 professors, he is a signatory to the World Climate Declaration which states there is no climate emergency and also notes climate models are “not remotely plausible as global tools”.
Scafetta’s latest work grouped 38 major climate models into low, medium and high ECS values, ranging between 1.8°C and 5.7°C. He found that models in the medium and high category “ran hot” in over 95% and 97% of cases respectively. The lower models were said to have done better when compared to global warming calculated for the period by the major surface datasets of 0.52-0.58°C. But the UAH satellite data showed warming up to 30% less during this period, suggesting even the low warming models produced “excessive warming” from 1980-2021.
According to Scafetta, these results are showed that the ECS figure could be as low as 1.2-2°C. Particular concern is expressed about surface temperature records that “appear to be severely affected by non-climatic warming biases”. Scafetta concludes that surface-based temperature records are likely to be affected by warming biases, such as the urban heat island effect due to expanding urban development, and subject to natural oscillations that are not reproduced by climate models. He concludes: “The global warming expected for the next few decades may be even more moderate than predicted by the low ECS-GCMs [Global Circulation Models], and could easily fall within a safe temperature range where climate adaptation policies will suffice.”
Scafetta’s work is vital in providing a realistic insight into the dominant role played by climate models in promoting the command-and-control Net Zero political agenda. Many of the constantly promoted climate thermogeddon scares use forecasts based on high ECS values. The higher values are behind every statement from bureaucrats, politicians, green activists and journalists that we are heading for a 2-3°C increase in global temperature in the near future. In the absence of any definitive ECS figure, these predictions are guesses.
In fact, once the ECS figure falls to around 1°C, it is moving into margin of error territory. However, many scientists have more or less given up trying to calculate ECS, since measuring the non-linear atmosphere is proving as difficult as it ever was. The atmosphere is a chaotic system with many powerful influences reacting unpredictably with each other. The huge heat transfers that obviously have a considerable part to play in climate are far from completely understood. Recent suggestions that modellers can ‘attribute’ single event weather events to human-caused climate change are unprovable, and little more than figments of over-active, agenda-driven imaginations. Furthermore, it is possible that carbon dioxide becomes ‘saturated’ beyond certain levels and its effect as a warming gas rapidly declines.
What we do know is that over the last 20 years, global warming has started to run out of steam. The latest September UAH satellite data, considered in some scientific circles as the most accurate measurement we have, show the current standstill has been extended to eight years. But whereas satellite data are common and invaluable in many geographical fields, these temperature results are less welcome. It is not hard to see why. Scafetta calculates that the results since the start of recordings around 1980 are 30% below surface temperature datasets. As it happens, the two adjustments since 2013 by the U.K.’s Met Office to its HadCRUT global surface temperature record have increased recent warming by a similar amount. Similar upward adjustments are to be found in the other major global datasets. A previous temperature pause from about 1998-2010 is no longer visible in these records.
Claims of ‘record’ heat years and ever higher temperatures are taken exclusively from the surface records. The satellite record is largely ignored. There are even attempts to cancel the inconvenient figures, with Google AdSense recently ‘demonetising’ the site of Dr. Roy Spencer, the Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, one of the main compilers of the UAH satellite record. The record, of course, that is a vital part of Professor Scafetta’s work investigating the accuracy of climate models.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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Some musings……I wonder why the Davos Deviants picked England to spark off civil unrest? Australia has ANZAC day and I understand that is venerated in the same way as Remeberance Sunday, so why us?
Does any other prominent nation honour and remember its war dead in quite the same way as we do?
Have they decided to inflict martial law or lockdowns or is the intention simply to set our towns and cities alight?
Dark days indeed.
Maybe just testing their new “draconian” anti-protest powers as laid out in the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill, to see how it works in practice?
Edit: could be Public Order Act, either way the police now have new powers.
It would appear that freelance photojournalists who work for CNN and the New York Times just happened to be within the Gaza strip at the time Hamas and many psychopath citizens blasted through the barrier and commenced their assault. What a scoop for them;
”On October 7, Hamas terrorists were not the only ones who documented the war crimes they had committed during their deadly rampage across southern Israel. Some of their atrocities were captured by Gaza-based photojournalists working for the Associated Press and Reuters news agencies whose early morning presence at the breached border area raises serious ethical questions.
What were they doing there so early on what would ordinarily have been a quiet Saturday morning? Was it coordinated with Hamas? Did the respectable wire services, which published their photos, approve of their presence inside enemy territory, together with the terrorist infiltrators? Did the photojournalists who freelance for other media, like CNN and The New York Times, notify these outlets? Judging from the pictures of lynching, kidnapping and storming of an Israeli kibbutz, it seems like the border has been breached not only physically, but also journalistically.”
https://web.archive.org/web/20231108181516/https://honestreporting.com/photographers-without-borders-ap-reuters-pictures-of-hamas-atrocities-raise-ethical-questions/
Good reporting Mogs
Wow.
Now you’re on the right track.
Implication…
Slightly off topic. With many papers reducing staff due to competition from on-line, editors rely more and more on pre-cooked articles from Reuters and AP etc. Who these days are far from neutral:
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/02/23/when-i-covered-climate-change-for-reuters-i-thought-co2-was-to-blame-for-rising-temperatures-i-was-wrong/?highlight=AP%20reuters
Reuters have links to the WEF….
CEOs of the big media companies have links to the WEF….
Hammas leader is a member of WEF….
Netanyahu is a member of WEF….
Braverman attended WEF….
Sunak is a member of WEF….
They’re all working for the same sponsor.
The DS, all the MSM are promoting the agenda of the WEF
Arguing here about who is right & who is wrong is following the agenda of the WEF.
Can you see it yet??
This lady who is Israeli and Arab Muslim, and is one of many, puts paid to the accusation of Israel being an ”apartheid state” ( 1min 30sec );
https://twitter.com/BrotherRasheed/status/1722121368232206476
How many Arabs live in Israel – how many have left since Oct 7th….. if so who is reporting on this – CNN, NYT, a n other of the TNI cabal?
I was in Bradford in 1991 and it was a tinderbox of cultural tension. Fighting between Pakistan Muslims and the English was commonplace. I knew then that this country had a big problem with immigration; after all, most of the refusal to integrate was coming from second generation immigrants. It could only get worse.
I haven’t been back since, but I doubt that all the hundreds of thousands of Muslims that have chosen to loudly protest on what has become England’s most sacred day of the year are doing so because they’ve integrated well. This idea amongst many sceptics that any trouble from all the ‘peace-loving’ Muslims would only stem from ‘agents’ is crazy. Batshit crazy. There are, at the very least, hundreds of thousands of Muslims living amongst us that hate Western values and need the smallest of excuses to show it. We will know what they really think of their adopted country this weekend. Anyone that turns up to protest is telling us what they really think of our values – I’m sure that will include hordes of virtue-signalling middle-class English.
Whatever happens this weekend the state wins. They are just a few moves away from the end of their game.
I think that Britain is about to reap the whirlwind of its much laudered and blinkered approach to multiculturalism!
We’re about to celebrate the lives of those who gave all, only for us to be defeated in our own country
I’ve come to believe the only people wearing the blinkers were us. It’s very hard to draw any conclusion other than mass immigration has always been the plan. Dilute Britishness, dilute a sense of belonging, generate panic, sow division and voila! You have a population ripe for the picking. The State will provide the answers to social unrest with more control, more surveillance, more restrictions. And it’s a 2-for-1 deal, as they also now have an abundance of people willing to work for less, so more ‘resource’ at lower cost. That’s all we are to these people – a tiny cog in their machine.
The destruction of European Christian civilisation has been the plan.
Mass immigration is just one of the means of achieving it.
Where did “we the people” go wrong I wonder? I guess many of us got lazy and missed what was going on at a global level, too busy bickering over local issues.
Not limited to us though. Consider France, or some USA states. There is no shortage of immigration across the Mediterranean at present, nor via central America.
So Rowley says no Law exists to stop the protests by our wonderfully integrated brethren ! There will be one afterwards that covers all of us , with maybe other familiar measures as well ! You couldn’t make it up !
Just one incident of a breach of the peace by a protester, just one, whether Plod acts or not, and Rowley is “decareered” in a heartbeat.
Climate Change Conference Cops And Robbers
latest leaflet to print at home and deliver to neighbours or forward to politicians, media, friends online.
Well done, Sir Mark Rowley.
This is exactly the kind of leadership with backbone that is required.
The Police will do an outstanding job at the weekend, again, and deserve our support, gratitude.
Corbyn had 13m supporters, and these marchers are Corbynites.
Of course they should be allowed to march peacefully so that the whole nation can see them for what they are.
Placards marked ‘Socialist Worker’ always give the game away.
This mini clip of Douglas Murray shutting Piers Morgan’s nonsense down, with his ”..but they’re not all Hamas supporters” garbage, is what I’ve been saying for some time. There is no way anyone going out on a march by week 5 wouldn’t know what ”from the river to the sea” meant, so yes they are all terrorist supporters, therefore I shall continue to accurately refer to these protests as ”pro-Hamas”, because it would appear that at this point in time it is factually correct.
https://twitter.com/GSpellchecker/status/1722385754322559421
One man’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter.
Anyone who claims to know what everyone in a group of thousands believes is deluding himself.
The anti lockdown marchers were branded far right, radicals, anti-vax looneys, everything under the sun.
All I nanowire is that someone is making hay from all this division and conflict.
“Met chief says ‘no law exists’ to stop pro-Palestine protest on Armistice Day”
That horse has long bolted!
Why didn’t the local authority just deny permission for the protest in the first place??
Then offer any other days on which they wanted to have it?
Why did they allow it on this particular weekend?
Have there ever been other marches and protests allowed in London during the remembrances? If not, why this one?
(I really don’t know if other protests have been allowed on Armistice day? Please enlighten)
In recent years, Remembrance with all the military marches etc has been scheduled for the nearest Sunday to Armistice day. It just happens to be Saturday & Sunday this year – next year it’ll be Sunday & Monday. Some calendars are erroneously labelled as if they were always together.
Khan didn’t or should that be Khouldnt….
Actually it’s Khant but drop the ‘h’ and give it a cockney accent and…well
Listening to Toby on this week’s Weekly Sceptic podcast:
“People just seem to lose their reason and discount prior experience when they start to panic under the threat of tens of 1000’s of deaths which they think they might be held accountable for not doing more to prevent … I wouldn’t be prepared to bet that we wouldn’t lock down again in the event of another pandemic”.
It is clear, 3.5 years on, that Toby still believes that there really was a pandemic and that those implementing the lockdown policy were acting in good faith in response to what they thought was a genuine public health emergency but simply panicked.
I’m not sure what to make of this…
Is he wrong that the hysteria of the population was used against it?
It doesn’t matter whether the covid terror was planned or just happened for the purpose of his point. Without the public’s hysteria and total buy in of the danger, there is no covid terror.
Thanks for that Michael. Actually I find this quite disturbing. Toby Young is not unintelligent so clinging to cock-up in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary seems absurd.
This line from Julie Burchill’s piece in Spiked – Queers for Palestine – made me chuckle:
“Didn’t the LQBTQ+ ‘community’ already have enough internecine squabbles, between those who believe that women can’t have penises and those who are insane?”
‘Police must be even handed with protests’.
So, if in 1942, Nazis wanted to march down the Mall, would they have stood by?
Every loathsome individual who takes part in these pro Hamas marches signals their Jew hatred.
Their slogan: first the Saturday people, then the Sunday people.
First they came for the Jews.
This is a common fallacy used to argue for limits to free speech. Basically, if we allow everything, then you can end up with the Nazis.
It’s completely the other way around. It was the Nazis that suppressed free speech and went on to commit the atrocities they did and to jail and murder anyone who disagreed with them.
A population committed to free speech would not have allowed the Nazis to do what they did.
“‘It’s controversial, but I think Hamas are freedom fighters’” – The organisers of the anti-Israel marches say they are peaceful. The Campaign Against Antisemitism spoke to attendees to see for themselves…”
Just like the Waffen SS then.
Good to know.
The ignorance displayed by those interviewed was staggering.
Worth looking into, following and wishing well.
But Michael Gove attending?
Seriously?!
https://www.dossier.today/p/inside-the-arc-a-dispatch-from-the?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=69009&post_id=138726321&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=97oj4&utm_medium=email
Thanks for the link. Excellent work there.