It’s been a week since the two Nord Stream pipelines sustained “unprecedented” damage in an apparent act of sabotage. And we’re no closer to finding out who’s responsible.
In my previous article, I listed the four prime suspects: Russia, the U.S., Poland and Ukraine. And I said that if I had to guess, Ukraine is the most likely culprit.
The Ukrainians have long opposed Nord Stream 1 and 2, since they bypass the pipelines running through their country, denying them lucrative transit fees. But in this case they had another, even stronger motive: stopping Europe from offering concessions to Russia in exchange for gas.
What’s more, Russia has been pummelling Ukraine’s infrastructure in recent weeks, so retaliating against the pipelines wouldn’t be a major escalation on Ukraine’s part.
And since the pipelines are jointly owned by Russia and Germany, the other three prime suspects all had an obvious reason not to sabotage them: doing so could spark a direct confrontation between two-nuclear armed powers.
Of course, if the Ukrainians are responsible, this technically means they attacked Germany – which, technically, should trigger Article 5. But we may never find out who did it. And even if we do, and it turns out to be Ukraine, retaliation from NATO doesn’t seem very likely.
Since my previous article was published, two additional pieces of evidence for the ‘it was Ukraine’ theory have come to my attention. Neither changes the balance of probabilities much, but I think they’re worth discussing.
First, I was reminded by journalist Michael Tracey of the sabotage of Russia’s military airfield at Saky in Crimea. As you may recall, there was a huge explosion, and half a dozen fighter jets were apparently destroyed. The attack took place in mid-August, and several weeks later the Ukrainians officially claimed responsibility.
Saky is located on the western coast of Crimea, suggesting that the operation had an amphibious element. And if the Ukrainians were able to execute such an operation in Crimea, that raises the probability they were behind the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines – not by much, but it does raise it.
Second, the German magazine Der Spiegel published an article about the Nord Stream sabotage, which contained the following revelation:
The Germans were warned in summer by the CIA about a possible attack scenario on the Nord Stream pipelines. U.S. intelligence claimed to have intercepted Russian communications in which concerns were expressed about possible Ukrainian attacks on Western infrastructure. The Ukrainians allegedly tried to rent a boat in Sweden for this purpose. The CIA did not consider the scenario of a Ukrainian attack to be very credible, but the mere fact that the possibility of an attack on Western infrastructure was mentioned by the Russian side prompted the Americans to warn the Germans about the scenario.
Again, this shouldn’t cause us to dramatically update our priors. After all, the CIA apparently “did not consider the scenario of a Ukrainian attack to be very credible”. But at the same time, it isn’t nothing.
I’m not extremely confident in the ‘it was Ukraine’ theory. The culprit could still be one of the other prime suspects, or perhaps another country (like Estonia) or a non-state actor (eco-terrorists maybe). But taking all the evidence together, that’s where I’d put my money.
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The US also warned the world they would happily destroy the pipelines, way back…
https://tass.com/world/1514923
“Biden threatened to ‘put an end’ to Nord Stream in February, diplomat points outOn the same day, the US administration denied that Biden threatened to physically destroy the Nord Stream pipelines
MOSCOW, September 28. /TASS/. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova pointed out that US President Joe Biden promised to “put an end” to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline on February 7, 2022.
Earlier, Zakharova said that the US President must answer the question if Washington realized its threat against the pipeline. She also published video footage of Biden’s February 7 speech, where he said that “If Russia invades [Ukraine], then there will be longer Nord Stream 2.”
On the same day, the US administration denied that Biden threatened to physically destroy the Nord Stream pipelines.”
Nuland also said the same thing. She also once said F**k the EU. In my opinion Ukraine or USA perhaps a combination of both but the fact Poland thanked the US makes it more likely to be the USA. Who benefits from this, certainly not Russia so those blaming Russia needs their heads examining.
Talk now is that the Empire says that it was Russia, either because Putin is a madman, or so that it could proceed with and justify the upcoming attack on US infrastructure, which the Empire, which really did NS1/2, is in truth already planning as a false flag, so that it can finally get involved directly- think of FDR not passing on the warnings about Pearl Harbour.
A 7 player game of Go, at least propaganda-wise….
I think it is naive to rule out USA on the grounds that there is a risk of a nuclear conflict. It is the USA that has been hyping up the nuclear threat for months, why wouldn’t they use another notch in the ratchet, despite Russia specifically ruling it out except as a response a strike on them? (PS for those doubters, read the direct translation of what Putin says, not what the press says it says).
USA/CIA working through a third party maybe to be able to deny involvement. There are plenty of guns for hire around the globe.
I think the sabotage hypothesis has been so tempting for everyone (me included) that we’ve overlooked something that’s apparently quite well-known in the industry: the problem of hydrate plugs. I’d suggest taking a look at this article. Cock-up vs. conspiracy, take your pick.
That was actually my suspicion, too: Something blew up due to the pipeline being in (dis)operational conditions it was never meant to cope with for a long time.
That’s also a possibility. But I thought everyone had agreed it was sabotage? And it’s unclear why Western countries would want to downplay the possibility of an accident, given the history of opposition to the pipelines from the US, Poland and Ukraine. An accident also makes Russia look bad, since it implies they don’t know how to maintain their own pipelines.
I think a lot of people (me included) assumed sabotage, but I think we’re giving the various politicians who’ve said so too much credit — and a lot of the Western ones are naturally motivated to blame Russia. No inspection has been carried out yet, and we don’t know what was happening in the pipeline and the compressor station, etc. In short, I think the cock-up theory is quite appealing, but I’m trying to get a comment from a gas process engineer. Some people are saying it might not have been hydrate, more likely a simple overpressure.
Well, they could be right – I have zero expertise in pipeline engineering. It would be useful to know how many times this has happened in the past. If there are many prior cases, that would certainly raise my confidence in the ‘it was an accident’ theory.
Ah the old cock-up theory. Fits with Russia generally being thought of as rather shoddy when it comes to precision laying of delicate inflammable-gas carrying pipelines in deep water. What is of much interest though is that it’s both pipelines that are now out of action, not one. One pipeline could be explained but two? Plus there was US airforce and naval activity in the area prior to the explosions plus Biden’s speech plus it’s in NATO interests to stop Russia’s ability to ship and sell gas. Honestly guys, have you had a talking to by a shady chain smoker in a trilby by any chance? It reeks of ‘sabotage’. And not by Russia – are we in the business of looking at the most preposterous theories and then adopting them because their preposterousness makes them all the more viable for being so utterly ham, cheese and pickles!
The timing of the opening of the Baltic pipeline the day after the leaks appeared (operational today) does seem too suspicious to make this accidental, but political pressure could cause also screwups as unintended consequences.
The Greifswald Landing station in Germany seems to be the point of connection for the Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines. It’s website appears to have been taken offline, though accessible via waybackmachine:
https://web.archive.org/web/20211025061714/https://www.nel-gastransport.de/fileadmin/downloads/broschueren/GASCADE_Flyer_AS_Greifswald_engl.pdf
Its function, besides as a landing station for NS1 and 2 appears to be to reduce the pressure from the pipelines from 180 bar (too high for the German pipelines to cope with) to 100 bar.
I’m too ignorant to speculate, but could disruption of operation or failure of co-ordination at the landing station cause overpressure in the pipelines feeding it?
NS1 closed for annual maintenance on 11 July 2022 for 10 days and reopened with reduced flow (20% about) before being shut again on 31 August for ‘3 days for maintenance’ (some story about a compressor fault) and never reopened. That doesn’t fit the hydrates theory. The pressure in the pipe has no connection to the pressure in the sea outside the pipe, the pipe obviously has to be designed to survive being empty with no internal pressure to, even partially, offset the external pressure. Normal operating pressure is 100 atm (ten times external sea pressure, giving some idea of the relative forces involved). The theory I like best is explosive ‘pigs’ as explained by Trent Telenko. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1575222209525972993.html
They’re not designed to survive being empty- the pipes need to stay pressurised or they collapse.
I’ve been a chartered civil engineer for 40+ years, pull the other one! The thing operates at +100 atmospheres internal, so nett +90 atms (10 atms water external) and you’re telling me that a 10% increase in load causes collapse?
I’m not a chartered civil engineer so I’ll defer to your expertise! I should have checked my sources before making that comment, but they sounded reasonable – that’ll learn me. At that depth, the external pressure should have been about 6-7 bar. Do you think the pipes would have been kept pressurised to prevent long-term compressive stress on weld joints etc?
I tend to agree with the gist of your comment, Ian. The problem of any system being effectively decommissioned for long periods of time had crossed my mind. Thanks for the info and the link.
NS1 was closed on 31 August 2022 ‘for three days for compressor maintenance’ (Siemens said that wasn’t necessary), it did not reopen. The timelines in the hydrates theory don’t match.
Interesting, thanks. But NS1 stopped transporting gas before 31st, I think?
From 11 July for the normal 10 days annual maintenance. Then started again at about 20% volume until 31 August. All the information is online.
Having had a quick look at the article it doesn’t seem posit a synchronisation mechanism whereby at least two explosions occur some distance apart, simultaneously, one in an old pipeline and one in an essentially new one. Colour me completely unconvinced by that suggestion.
Yeah, there’s a lot that doesn’t entirely add up as being an accident, but I’m trying to consider all possibilities. Time will tell.
‘…taking all the evidence together’:
‘The Ukrainians allegedly tried to rent a boat in Sweden’
‘If the Ukrainians were able to execute such an operation in Crimea, that raises the probability they were behind the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines’
Oh dear! Oh no it doesn’t……does it…..really….?
The pipelines are 80 metres deep.
A midget submarine and several hundred kilos of explosives would have been required.
Or the owner of the pipeline could have simply sent a pipeline ‘pig’ loaded with H.E. down the pipeline and detonated it remotely.
Or cock up…….
Your choice……
So what’s your take on it?
Cock up.
..or the ‘owner’ could have just flicked a switch and turned it off…Doh!!
Putin turned NS1 off on 31 August 2022 ‘for 3 days for maintenance’ it never reopened. As Darth Putin (Master Strategist) said on twitter ‘I turned gas off too early (allowing Europe time to find alternative suppliers and stock up) and started mobilisation too late’. Explosive ‘pigs’ is the simplest and most plausible explanation. Only one party has access to do that.
Yes..I appreciate your take. There can only be one answer for you, of course LOL! Because he’s cwaazy!!
No, not mad but hard to fathom at times. Kamil Galeev (a Tartar) provides the best insight into the Russian mind I find.
https://threadreaderapp.com/user/kamilkazani
The estimated power of the explosion was many tons of tnt. Do you know how big pigs are?
I do after reading this by Trent Telenko. I’m a chartered civil engineer (40+ years) but haven’t built any gas pipelines. I can however do simple sums. Half ton TNT according to Germans so your figure is an order of magnitude too high (at least).
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1575222209525972993.html
https://nationalgunbroker.com/prepping-survival/germany-believes-high-explosive-devices-equivalent-to-500-kilograms-of-tnt-used-to-destroy-nord-stream/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/30/nord-stream-blasts-size-equal-to-large-amount-of-explosive-un-told
Of course they warned/informed them … to see if they protested or rolled over and took it…(no surprise it’s the latter…)
Two things.. this is from Anthony Blinken a few days ago…and if this isn’t bragging about what they’ve done I’m a Chinaman…as the saying goes…
(on the destruction of the NS pipelines)…”..ultimately this is also a tremendous opportunity to ONCE AND FOR ALL remove the dependence on Russian energy, and thus to take away from Vladimir Putin the weaponisation of energy……it also offers strategic opportunities for years to come.”
(He misses the bit about a tremendous opportunity for the USA to once and for all de-industrialise Germany and Europe and leave them utterly dependent on the US…)
So first of all, what has energy purchases in Germany from whoever they want to buy from, got to do with the USA? Why is it the task of the USA to ‘sever’ any ties between Germany and Russia? ONCE AND FOR ALL? Hubris writ large in my opinion…second, Putin has always been happy to sell…the only ‘weaponisation’ has come from the other side with crazy sanction and fuel caps….
And secondly isn’t it odd that only Nordstream was attacked/damaged…while the new Polish pipeline that actually crosses Nordstream was perfectly OK? LOL!!!
As Sikorsky said truthfully…’thank’s USA’….
That would be the Ukrainian Navy Seals would it, with their high precision torpedos and naval abilities in the Baltic? …oh, but hang on, the Ukraine doesn’t have a Baltic navy. In fact, there’s a rather large amount of land and at least two big countries before they’d get anywhere near the Baltic, let alone find the pipeline, let along make a complete hash of it. So they tried to rent a boat in Sweden did they? Just going fishing are you, with this enormously heavy long cigar-shaped thing and a bunch of frog-suited gentlemen? Nice pleasure trip. Probably catch a few herring at this time of year, particularly red herrings…
You couldn’t make this stuff up. It’s ‘hey stupid, look over there’ – kaboom!!
Can Mr. Carl fall any further down the rabbit hole?
Various governments around the world already know who did this and it is only a matter of time before the information leaks out.
In the meantime, rational people should ask, who benefits and who is capable of this terrorist act?
Russia doesn’t benefit, the pipeline was their leverage over Europe.
The Ukrainians would be taking a huge risk of losing all of their support from Europe and the UK if they did this; it’s improbable that Zelensky would risk alienating his western supporters.
The former Polish Foreign Minister tweeted thanks to Biden for this act, if Poland had committed this act, wouldn’t he have said your welcome instead of thank you?
President, Biden, is far and away the most likely perpetrator and he’s dumb enough to think that the American population will support this when the truth comes out after the mid-term elections in the US. As with virtually everything else Biden is wrong, like Mr. Carl.
Yes I agree..it’s like the Covid crew tying themselves in knots to prove it was effective against transmission, when common sense, logic and all the evidence was showing it wasn’t.
They are also totally wrong in thinking ‘time will tell’ who did it either…the MSM have been paid off and are fully on board with ‘cwaazy Putin did it’…there’s no chance there will be a full investigation..and neither Russia or Gazprom will be allowed anywhere near any ‘investigation’….another thing that should set alarms off, as it does in anyone who isn’t suffering from Putin derangement syndrome, as I like to call it!
James H Kuntsler posted this today. Credible I think
“Monkey Werx,” notable for tracking the world-wide military flight movements, presents a comprehensive play-by-play of just exactly how the mission was accomplished. I’ll summarize but you can read his full report for yourself.
MW reports that overnight on the 26th of September, a Navy P8 Poseidon submarine-hunter jet flew out of the US to the Baltic. It did not land in the UK to refuel — thus avoiding any tracking complications — but rather rendezvoused over Grudziadz, Poland, with a US Bart-12 mid-air refueling plane, which it hooked up with for more than an hour. The P8 was equipped with Mk54 air-launched torpedoes. After un-docking from the Bart-12 refueler, the P8 followed a route west along the Nord Stream pipelines, descended to bomb-run altitude, and dropped its weapons. Kaboom. Then, fully refueled, the P8 flew directly back to the USA. Days later, when confronted at the UN by Russia with a yes-or-no question as to US responsibility for the Nord Stream caper, the US representatives refused to answer one way or another. Cute.”
https://www.monkeywerxus.com/blog/the-nord-stream-2-pipeline-sabotage
Yeah, I read MW’s blog too. He seems to know what he’s talking about although god only knows how. It’s all very plausible and I feel it’s definitely the US that took them out. However, I understand there were two separate incidents (i.e. one on each Nordstream pipeline) 17 hours apart. So there must have been another operation going on too. The US well dock ship (has a submerged platform like an internal dock) steaming out of the Baltic shortly afterwards may explain that one.
Its a dead cert who the real culprit was, the only concern I have is what part did the UK play in this criminal sabotage? I hope this comes back to bite the USA on the ass, big time!
Yes – it may, of course, have been a Ukrainian driver – but supervised by and using US Navy supplied gear.
For the huge US intelligence agencies to be so quiet and claim not to know who sabotaged the pipeline is very telling. Whether Ukrainians actually pulled the trigger is irrelevant.
How many Submarines do Ukrania have?