91598
  • Log in
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

The Lessons SAGE Needs to Learn from Sweden’s Anders Tegnell

by Will Jones
1 January 2022 7:00 AM

There follows a guest post by a reader, who wishes to remain anonymous, who has spotted another important difference between the U.K. and Sweden.

The Prime Minister will be given another crucial SAGE briefing at the start of the New Year, when, once more, he will presumably be steered towards a decision on more restrictions for businesses and the general public by the use of models.

If Professor Graham Medley, the chair of SAGE’s modelling committee, takes part, we can, of course, expect that he will only present a worst-case scenario.

In stark contrast, the Swedish state epidemiologist, Dr Anders Tegnell, known for his aversion to lockdowns from the beginning of the pandemic, routinely produces models with several scenarios and I have yet to see evidence that they are presented to his Government with all scenarios expunged, barring the worst one. 

I’ve applied, below, the ‘SAGE’ presentation principle to Tegnell’s latest Covid models, created last week for the Swedish government.

It’s striking that even the worst ICU forecast is only for a peak of around 50 new patients in mid-January, which would equate to around 280 in England, if the difference in population size is taken into account, whereas the best is little more than the current figure of barely 10, equating to 56 in England.

As of December 29th there were 771 patients in ICU units in England who have tested positive for Covid, with no forecasts for future numbers made public. This is numbers in ICU, however, not new admissions. While new ICU admissions are not published on the Government dashboard, recently numbers in ICU have been declining rather than rising.

The ICU figures for England are surely the ones that the PM should be focusing on, rather than case numbers, given the much lower infection fatality rate of the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

The first graph is for cases per day, the second for new hospital admissions, the third for new ICU patients.

Modelled new cases per day in Sweden
Modelled new cases per day in Sweden, worst case only
Modelled new daily hospital admissions (L) and ICU admissions (R) in Sweden
Modelled new daily hospital admissions, worst case only (L) and new ICU admissions (R) in Sweden
Tags: Dr Anders TegnellLockdownModellingSAGESweden

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

News Round-Up

Next Post

We Will Remember You

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

73 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

 

DONATE

PODCAST

Nick Dixon and Toby Young Talk About Caroline Dinenage’s Power Grab, Rishi Becoming a Proper Conservative and Justin Trudeau’s Confusion About Nazis

by Will Jones
26 September 2023
9

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editors Picks

Drivers Shocked as Insurers Quote Over £5,000 for Electric Vehicles – if They Insure Them at All

30 September 2023
by Will Jones

News Round-Up

1 October 2023
by Will Jones

mRNA Vaccines Must Be Banned Once and For All

1 October 2023
by Dr Angus Dalgleish

Horrendous Number of Eagle Deaths From Wind Farms

1 October 2023
by Chris Morrison

Conservative MPs Slam Financial Regulator’s “Mission Creep” Proposal to ‘Stamp Out Sexism in the City’

30 September 2023
by Will Jones

News Round-Up

56

Kemi Badenoch: We Can’t Bankrupt Ourselves Getting to Net Zero

31

Drivers Shocked as Insurers Quote Over £5,000 for Electric Vehicles – if They Insure Them at All

41

Horrendous Number of Eagle Deaths From Wind Farms

24

mRNA Vaccines Must Be Banned Once and For All

34

mRNA Vaccines Must Be Banned Once and For All

1 October 2023
by Dr Angus Dalgleish

Horrendous Number of Eagle Deaths From Wind Farms

1 October 2023
by Chris Morrison

Covid Care Home “Carnage” Exposed in New Study

30 September 2023
by Dr Carl Heneghan and Dr Tom Jefferson

Scott Gottlieb and the CIA’s Takeover of America’s Pandemic Response

30 September 2023
by Dr Robert Malone
harries.jpg

The Covid Backpedalling Race Hots Up

29 September 2023
by Dr Tom Jefferson

POSTS BY DATE

January 2022
M T W T F S S
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31  
« Dec   Feb »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Create New Account!

Please note: To be able to comment on our articles you'll need to be a registered donor

Already have an account?
Please click here to login Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment