Boris Johnson said yesterday that Omicron is “surging across the country now” and warned that “we reserve the possibility of taking further action to protect the public and to protect public health, to protect the NHS. We won’t hesitate to take that action.” The Telegraph reports.
The Prime Minister has said the Government “reserves the possibility” to implement further Covid restrictions amid surging Omicron cases, and warned that the current situation is “extremely difficult”.
Speaking in Downing Street, Boris Johnson said the latest data will be kept under constant review “hour by hour”, and refused to rule out further measures after Christmas.
“We will have to reserve the possibility of taking further action to protect the public and to protect public health, to protect the NHS,” he said. “We won’t hesitate to take that action.”
Asked about what types of restrictions could be reimplemented, he said: “We are looking at all kinds of things to keep Omicron under control and we will rule nothing out.”
But is it really true that Omicron is surging and warrants the Prime Minister breaking his repeated promise that the lifting of restrictions in the summer following the vaccine rollout was “irreversible”?
Not according to the latest data. Yesterday’s reported infections for the U.K. were at 91,743, down from three days ago.
The peak by specimen date is still December 15th and the figures for the following days, while incomplete, do not suggest it will be topped soon.
December 15th was 10 days before Christmas. Given that people have to isolate for 10 days if positive, this suggests the peak may be largely an artefact of people getting tested ahead of Christmas. The leap in testing on that day is also indicative of this.
In this regard it is similar to the spike in tests and positives that occurred ahead of the summer break in July. That quickly dropped off as schools broke up and people went off on summer holidays. We may well see a similar phenomenon now that schools have broken up and people go away or to family for Christmas.
Most of the recent spike in positive tests is an artefact of the increase in testing. While the positivity rate in the U.K. saw a modest rise in the past week, up to 5.3% on December 19th from 4.4% on the 14th (see graph at top), it is not yet any higher than it was in October, and far below last winter’s peak of 13.5%. No reason to panic there. Deaths also continue their downward trend. How does data like this warrant the return of draconian ‘last resort’ social restrictions?
Rather than causing a large new epidemic or surge, Omicron appears largely to be replacing Delta for the winter wave – though Delta is still retaining some market share for now.
Meanwhile in the original epicentre of the Omicron outbreak, Gauteng province in South Africa, reported infections have been falling sharply in the past week.
National data from South Africa also continues to show a much milder disease, with ICU admissions currently at 21% of their July peak, or 79% lower.
This mildness has been confirmed by new data from Denmark, which finds the hospitalisation rate from Omicron 60% lower than from other variants.
Perhaps it should not come as a surprise, then, to hear that South Africa’s Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19, which is similar to SAGE, has written to the Health Minister Joe Phaahla recommending that the quarantining of contacts and all contact tracing be halted with immediate effect. It is no longer necessary and too costly for individuals and society for too little benefit, they argue.
We have learned more about the manner in which COVID-19 is spread, and also now have to contend with variants of concern whose epidemiology differs from that of the ancestral strains of SARS-CoV-2.
Crucially, it appears that efforts to eliminate and/or contain the virus are not likely to be successful. Therefore, it is critical that the role of containment efforts like quarantine and contact tracing is re-evaluated.
In addition, among the small proportion of symptomatic cases, testing is far from universal, since patients may not seek testing when their symptoms are mild and when testing would be burdensome and expensive. Furthermore, the SARS-CoV-2 test sensitivity is suboptimal, sometimes leading to false negative results.
The inability of the current testing strategy to identify the bulk of cases is illustrated by the high SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity rates seen across multiple provinces in serosurveys, implying that only a fraction of cases (perhaps one in 10, or even less) are ever diagnosed.
It stands to reason that if the vast majority of cases are not diagnosed, then the vast majority of case contacts are also not diagnosed. This means that quarantining and contact tracing are of negligible public health benefit in the South African setting.
Boris’s support base is collapsing as even once-loyal Ministers desert him over his apparent addiction to lockdown restrictions. Yet he is deaf to their pleas and seems only to have ears for the doom-mongers of SAGE. Government modeller Professor Graham Medley revealed on Saturday they didn’t model more positive outcomes for Omicron because they weren’t asked to. Who didn’t ask them to, and why not? Boris has many enemies, and he is only making his position worse by alienating his natural supporters while heeding the advice and adopting the policies of those who would gladly see him gone.
Time to wise up, Boris, and start listening to the right people. Omicron is not “surging”, and neither is it a cause for panic. You just need to keep calm and carry on.
Stop Press: Tuesday’s reported infection numbers dropped again, to 90,629, and the peak by specimen date remains December 15th.
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So Stirling thinks it’s okay to taunt people when it serves his own ends. Definitely Woke.
I don’t see this the same as a crime like rewriting classic children’s books, and losing their meaning in that process. It would be easy to cry foul on this, but I think updating storylines and characters to more closely reflect our current society.? Yes I can see where Stirling is coming from. We don’t expect our comedy today to be that of Tommy Trinder and Arthur Askey. Why should the Beano be preserved in aspic. Things move on.
My concern is that the Bash Street Kids were often on the very edge of their boundaries, but punishments were always there if they transgressed. Easy for kids to understand without having to go through the pain of being caught and getting punished. Theres no point really if they are dutiful and perpetually acting with safety in mind. We loved Dennis the Menace because he was a rebel who took the risks we wouldn’t dare. I don’t suppose kids give a toss nowadays such is the soft approach of parents, teachers and police.
It’s not the equivalent of rewriting an existing work – I agree
I still disapprove because it is politically motivated and conscious rather than a natural product of the writing changing organically over time
This is grown-ups messing with children’s literature to adapt it to their own prejudices to make themselves feel good about it, paint themselves in a way better light than they deserve and – obviously – also for political indoctrinaton of children as early as possible. Every bit of that is despicable.
On a more serious note: This is wanton destruction of another British cultural institution guilty of not having been invented by the woketurds themselves, who all mistakenly believe to be children’s book authors because anything can be sold to children. Except new-style gay agenda Disney flicks, that is, but let’s not bother with reality too much for as long as the money rolls in punctually.
I agree and yes it is despicable. I am steeling myself for when grandchildren arrive and we have to hear about the indoctrination to which they are subjected. Not looking forward to the battles with my kids over this – if that’s what happens. Not sure how they will handle this. I don’t generally hold with grandparents being backseat parents but on certain subjects it’s hard to hold your tongue.
You can see where Stirling is coming from? ————Yes, Cleansing. –No child with spots, no fat child, plenty of blacks and Asians in the gang? ——–Oops did I say gang? How dare I? This could lead to innocent children seeking out drugs to run across county lines for a bag of sherbet.
Oh yes. Nowdays, teachers are so sympathetic and nurturing wrt pupils that they unleash torrents of abuse at pupils daring to question gender ideology and not that long ago, they wanted them masked all day force-swabbed twice or thrice to make sure they’re not infected with any germs which might be dangerous to teachers. By the time I was in elementary school, corporal punishment was still legal in German schools and I don’t remember this as anything out of the ordinary or particularly scary. Occasionally, someone got slapped or otherwise hit[*] when acting up. Well, our parent also did that. The systematic torture and constant treatment as dangerous not-quite-humans of 2020 – 2021 was in an entirely different ballpark.
Whom are these people trying to fool?
[*] An English teacher of mine once threw a heavy keychain into my face from 5m distance because he – correctly – suspected that I was reading a dime novel behind my schoolbook instead of following his rather boring lecture. That was a bit overdoing it but apart from that, I have no real reason to complain about teacher violence.
I known a girl that looks like plug!
I’ve got her phone number if you want it?
Kids like reading about meanness and anarchy. It’s cathartic. I was probably more like Walter the Softy in real life, but I loved Dennis the Menace, Minnie the Minx and the Bash Street Kids. Their pint-sized villainy was an outlet for all my frustrations. Inclusive Minds are a___holes who have no concept of the joy and pain of childhood. They’re perverted adults forcing an ideology on children that includes effectively wrapping them in cotton wool, permanently infantilising them and not preparing them for the grown up world. That’s why fairytales are great, why uncensored Roald Dahl is great, why the Beano, Dandy and Topper were great. The world is shitty and hard to live in. It also requires a sense of humour to handle it as an adult. Take those tools away from children and you get… well… the modern world!
Good luck Beano – we’ll miss you.
Viz next?
The name will have to change: it might upset blind people!
Viz was tamed a long time ago actually.
It’s been weak for 20 years or more – they never surpassed the one off strip “The Thieving Gypsy Bastards”
My 10 year old son recently purchased an old Beano Annual in the charity shop because he said he felt the recent stuff isn’t funny and he wanted to see if the older stuff is. He wasn’t disappointed.
Yes, personally I don’t object to them adding a range of characters but if in the new version the kids are all talented and the adults all supportive and nurturing, what’s funny?
Nothing!
When do we get a fat/spotty ‘global majority’ character; or are all the smelly, poxy ones going to be Anglo-Saxon as always?
The only minor character flaw in one of the new kids is neuroticism. Maybe I will be downticked for suggesting that such a thing is undesirable.
Fun is racist. And people whose future will better be destroyed by a climate emergency shouldn’t be laughing about anything, anyway. Wailing and gnashing of teeth is the only thing which is age-appropriate for them.
There’s an interesting synchronicity between modern slow walking climate protestors and historic wailing women walking down the street whipping themselves with their own hair!
“We have never seen [woke] as a pejorative term,”
Reminds me of the cartoon where Garfield says to the daft puppy “Did you know that some people are so stupid that they don’t know when they’re being insulted?”… And the puppy just sits there wagging it’s tail.
I wonder how the weekly sales chart lines up with the increase in wokeness?
Dennis the Menace and Beryl the Peril ———Dennis the nice little polite lad———–Beryl the cutey full of sweetness and light.—- Oh dear wokery is such a tedious bore.
Billy Whizz clearly had an amphetamine abuse problem.
Round my neck of the woods “Plug” is still how we refer to the generic ugly bloke or bird.
I remember one issue where Plug had a job in a yoghurt factory. He’s look at the milk and it would turn sour!!