Last Thursday, the Prime Minster announced that the NHS Covid Pass would become mandatory for entry into nightclubs and other venues “where large crowds gather”. While the timing of this announcement seems to be motivated more by politics than anything else, does the measure itself actually make sense? I would argue: no.
The NHS Covid Pass is available to those who meet any of the following three conditions. One, you’ve received two or more vaccine doses. Two, you’ve tested positive in the past six months and have finished self-isolating. And three, you’ve tested negative in the past 48 hours.
So, the passes do at least recognise natural immunity, which is condition number two. But will requiring them have any impact on serious illness and death (which is after all what really matters)? It seems unlikely.
Requiring passes certainly can’t guarantee zero transmission at large events, since we know that both vaccinated and previously infected people can transmit the virus.
The only measure that would come close to achieving zero transmission is requiring everyone – regardless of vaccination or natural immunity – to present a negative test upon entry. However, this measure would still be vulnerable to false negatives, or persons who became infected shortly after testing negative.
If you’re a vulnerable person deciding whether or not to attend a large event, the fact that Covid passes are mandatory is no guarantee whatsoever that you won’t catch Covid. (As I’ve argued before, vaccine passports could have the unintended consequence of leading vulnerable people to engage in more risky behaviour.)
In principle, requiring passes could lower the level of transmission at large events. But any effect is likely to be extremely small.
That’s because most people were vaccinated several months ago, so at this point won’t be much less likely to transmit the virus than those who aren’t unvaccinated. (They might even be more likely to transmit it.) Among the vaccinated, only those who’ve had three doses will have somewhat more protection against infection.
On top of that, the number of people who’d be turned away without a negative test – i.e., unvaccinated people who haven’t been infected in the last six months – must be pretty small, especially when you consider how many young people caught the virus over the summer. Which raises the question: what’s the point?
Finally, there’s the issue of why we should even care about the total number of infections. Covid isn’t going anywhere, which means most of us are going to catch it sooner or later – regardless of whether we’re vaccinated. (I am, in case you’re interested.)
Our goal should be protecting vulnerable people as the virus becomes endemic. It’s unclear how slowing transmission in nightclubs makes any real contribution to that goal.
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Outlaw discrimination against those who do not get a Covid-19 vaccination
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/575801
outlaw those who call for more outlawing.
Oh dear. The rumours of your departure were exaggerated!
Shes probably been too poorly from the jab to respond![😂](https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/15.0.3/svg/1f602.svg)
By chance I have come across a report from yesterday in Sky News that the House of Commons Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee have issued a very strong report rejecting Covid passports as being discriminatory etc. and that the idea domestically should be scrapped. They were also very critical of the Govt.’.s actions so far on rolling these out for use for international travel preempting reports by the Govt. , the committee and without consulting Parliament which could be tantamount to a contempt of Parliament.
I have not seen this reported anywhere else. I am used to the million plus marches I have been on being ignored and censored but it seems the MSM also ignores and censors Hose of Commons Committee Reports if the findings are contrary to the Govt. Agenda
In other news Pontiff still Catholic, bears still defecating in areas populated with trees…
FYI, this Pope Not Catholic.
Is he a Christian?
Rather more so than ‘our’ despicable ABC!
a Covidian.
Nope!
Well, duh!
I would prefer to say it was the devastating impact of the government’s continuing and disatrous Covid policy rather than the virus itself.
Yep – and I bet the numbers will be worse this year!
Demand for air travel collapsed?
No it didn’t. The demand was still there. Governments made it virtually impossible to travel.
Love how the media and crokked politicians claim it was the virus that caused this unexpected result and not the criminals in Govt, SAGE and Media.
Love how the spineless twat of a PM we have flew in rather than take a limo or train !
For Airports read the whole industry. I did 47 years as an airline pilot and luckily retired before all this hit. Many many from all industries have lost jobs. In my former industry young men and women borrowed heavily and now face ruin.
Things may be bad now, but if future governments are determined to get to net zero (carbon dioxide) then the future could be even worse. I’m dubious that massive numbers of flights can run on biofuels or hydrogen, and most people know that carbon offsetting is a scam. Maybe this is one reason why the government is slow to allow international travel to resume, they’re trying to wean us of air travel as part of the plan to use lockdown as preperation for net zero, which will involve massive restrictions on our freedom and a devastated economy.
Absolutely correct analysis. I have strongly believed this is has been a cornerstone of the agenda from the very start. Note that Fergusson was shagging a major green lobbyist. Bojoke is married to another and his father was yet another of the green lunatics. What we need to understand is that the UK aviation industry is as dead as the dodo – but you ain’t seen nothing yet. It will be cars next. Easy done. Massive tax on fuel and restrictions on supply. I give it 18 months at this rate. All part of the “great reset”.
The Airport Operators Association (AOA) said the figures demonstrated the devastating impact of GOVERNMENTS on aviation.
FIFY
I work at the airport and can confirm that demand has not collapsed.
An airline can be ticking along reasonably well given the circumstances and then as soon as the government slams their country of origin onto the “red list”, their passenger numbers drop like a stone due to the fact that people do not wish or are not able to pay to be imprisoned. The so called “amber list” is expensive enough, but numbers hold up slightly better when a country is on that list.
As everybody with half a brain knows and anybody with a shred of honesty will admit, passenger numbers are down by as much as they are due to travel restrictions. Nothing else. Not ‘the virus’.
Last winter weren’t Italy’s ski resorts packed (during the short periods that they were allowed to open) even though hundreds of people in Italy were dying of Covid every day?
That certainly goes a long way to refute claims that it is “the virus” (as opposed to the restrictions) that is damaging the economy.
LONDON
Mon, 14 June, 12 noon till late
Downing St, London
MONDAY https://gab.com/emoji/1f511.svghttps://gab.com/emoji/1f510.svghttps://gab.com/emoji/1f513.svghttps://gab.com/emoji/1f929.svg
JUNE 14TH , BE THERE
1O DOWNING STREET
12 PM
EXERCISE YOUR RIGHT TO PEACEFULLY GATHER.
Here is why we are where we are, and shows where we are going.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/it-wont-be-pleasant-mark-carney-unveils-dystopian-new-world-combat-climate-crisis
Could Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonald and all the hard Labour merry men have created a worse mess for the economy and the little people who are not public servants (ha), than Boris Johnson and his politburo has done
They likely would have, not because of their already-established policy positions (which may have actually been better) but because they’d be more likely to be seduced by the siren song of zero Covid, which is a non-starter unless (amongst other things) airport passenger numbers dropped by at least 98% as opposed to 75%.
Our rights would have been better served under Corbyn
For all his faults I don’t think he would have gone as far as the Pig Dictator
So you think the zero-Covid noises that currently come from a fair number of Labour lefties are just virtue signalling that they feel they can safely engage in from a position of opposition?