There follows a guest post from our in-house doctor, formerly a senior medic in the NHS, on what we know so far about the Omicron Covid variant. He’s also written about the scandal of the Downing Street parties – Secret Santa-Gate – asking: “If Covid really was such a mortal threat as the Government have led the public to believe, do readers really think that Downing Street apparatchiks would be flocking to packed parties in small rooms? I suspect not.“
It’s now two weeks since the world first heard of the Omicron variant. Travel restrictions and mask mandates were immediately reimposed on the U.K. population and have since been tightened further. Reports in the press this morning are trailing the reimposition of more curbs on liberty in the U.K. over the next few weeks. In today’s update, I will examine what we have learnt about the new variant and to what extent it may affect the situation in the NHS. This update is a bit data-heavy, so apologies in advance for the graphic fest.
South Africa is widely regarded as the epicentre of Omicron. Having spent considerable time working in that wonderful country, I can attest to the expertise of my South African medical colleagues, particularly in the field of infectious diseases. So, when Dr. Fareed Abdullah writes from the Steve Biko Hospital in Pretoria that the data so far on the Omicron variant suggests it is very much milder than the Delta variant, I’m inclined to take him seriously.
I encourage readers to examine this document themselves – this extract is worth quoting in full:
In summary, the first impression on examination of the 166 patients admitted since the Omicron variant made an appearance, together with the snapshot of the clinical profile of 42 patients currently in the Covid wards at the SBAH/TDH complex, is that the majority of hospital admissions are for diagnoses unrelated to Covid. The SARS-CoV-2 positivity is an incidental finding in these patients and is largely driven by hospital policy requiring testing of all patients requiring admission to the hospital.
Using the proportion of patients on room air as a marker for incidental Covid admission as opposed to severe Covid (pneumonia), 66% of patients at the SBAH/TDH complex are incidental Covid admissions. This very unusual picture is also occurring at other hospitals in Gauteng. On December 3rd, Helen Joseph Hospital had 37 patients in the Covid wards of whom 31 were on room air (83%); and the Dr. George Mukhari Academic Hospital had 80 patients of which 14 were on supplemental oxygen and one on a ventilator (81% on room air).
Dr. Richard Friedland, Chief Executive of Netcare (the largest private hospital group in South Africa), has been reported this week as saying Omicron infections are not causing a significant increase in hospitalisations and that the Omicron wave can be dealt with in primary care if this trend continues.
The E.U., the WHO and Dr. Anthony Fauci in the U.S. have all made reassuring statements to the effect that Omicron so far appears to cause mild symptoms and little in the way of hospitalisations.
So far, so encouraging. I was expecting more hard information at the Downing Street press conference on December 8th from the Chief Medical Officer. “Alas, it was with a heavy heart” that I found myself disappointed. Professor Whitty did refer to anecdotal information from South Africa that “hospitalisations have risen by 300%” but provided no source for his assertion. I have looked around and can’t find that published anywhere. I have asked South African friends for their views. My anecdotal information reports that South Africa currently has 500 serious Covid cases in hospital across the nation and the health system is well on top of the situation. Anecdote is frequently unreliable as a means of assessment – I will return to this point later in the piece.
The Prime Minister made reference to the “remorseless logic of exponential growth”, as did the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Officer with graphs of a steep upturn in Omicron variant cases tested in the U.K. At no point was any reference made to how many of the 560 cases identified to that date in the U.K. had ended up in hospital, nor any information as to how many people in South Africa have died as a direct consequence of Omicron infection – my informants tell me no-one has so far been recorded of dying from Omicron infection by the WHO.
Comments were made in relation to the fact that the South African population is a younger demographic than that of the U.K. and therefore we may be more vulnerable to the variant. This is a reasonable point. I must have missed the counterargument that the vast majority of the South African population are unvaccinated and they also have the highest incidence of HIV in the world, both factors which may render their people more vulnerable to Covid infection than those in the U.K.
There were no remarks at the press conference as to how the modellers have varied their predictions to take into account Omicron encountering a population with a degree of prior familiarity with Covid and a high vaccination rate. It is reasonable to worry that Omicron may exhibit a degree of vaccine evasion and be able to reinfect people who have previously had Covid. But it is not sensible to assume the effect of Omicron will be similar to the first or second wave of Covid, when the virus was invading a completely immunologically naïve population. The track record of the epidemiological modelling community over the last 18 months hardly inspires confidence – on every previous occasion when their hypotheses have been tested against real-world data, the predictions have been huge overestimates. I have often recalled the comment of the great economist J.K. Galbraith to the effect that the only function of economic predictions was “to make astrology look respectable”.
I should make it clear that Omicron could spring a surprise and create another wave of serious disease – that is a possibility, although the data so far suggest otherwise. The press conference on December 8th provided speculation rather than facts in support of a worst-case hypothesis. As Steve Baker MP said in the House of Commons on December 9th, “We are taking away the public’s right to choose what they do based on flimsy and uncertain evidence.” It is disappointing that the Chief Medical Officer, with all the machinery of state at his disposal, can present less of an update to the public than I can with a laptop and a couple of hours of research.
Next, I turn to the current situation to assess whether the NHS is in imminent danger of being overwhelmed by a wave of new Omicron hospitalisations.
Graph One shows the updated Covid admissions to English hospitals. There is a suggestion of a slight upswing in admissions on the seven-day moving average at the right-hand side of the graph, but so far no major change and daily admissions are at a lower level than they were in July and August.
Yesterday, Michael Gove said that 30% of Covid infections in London were Omicron cases, which seems to be the front running Omicron region in the U.K. Accordingly, I have selected out the data on Covid admissions to hospital from the community in London in Graph Two. There has been an increase in admissions over the last week, but it is still below the level in July and August. It is as yet unclear whether this increase is an expected seasonal uptick, or due to the Omicron variant. I have not seen any information released to date around what proportion of recent admissions are Omicron as compared to the dominant Delta variant. It should also be noted that the daily numbers of patients are increasing from a low base – currently running at about 100 per day in the capital.
As I write this piece, the ‘experts’ from the London School of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene are confidently predicting that Omicron will cause 2,000 hospital admissions per day and 24,700 deaths between December 1st and April 30th, 2022. I turn again to Professor Galbraith who observed in relation to economic matters “there are two kinds of forecasters – those who don’t know; and those who don’t know they don’t know”.
Next, overall Covid hospital patients in Graph Three and the equivalent data from London alone in Graph Four. Overall, in England, there is no discernable rise in inpatient numbers. It should be noted that these graphs and the headline figure of 6,000 inpatients are an overestimate of the numbers of patients being treated for acute Covid. The primary diagnosis data continues to show that only 75% of these patients are hospitalised with acute Covid – the other 25% are being treated for something else. Further, this week it was reported by the Telegraph that their source inside NHS England (referred to as ‘George’ on the Planet Normal podcast) has revealed that about 10% of the patients classified as Covid inpatients have in fact recovered fully and are stuck in hospital because they cannot be safely discharged to care homes. This so-called ‘bed blocking’ is a regular feature every winter but may have been exacerbated this year by the vaccination mandate for care home workers reducing the workforce. If ‘George’ can be believed, therefore, the correct figure for inpatients being treated for acute Covid in English hospitals is closer to 3,900 than 6,000.
Graph Four shows the inpatient figures for London. Again, there is a slight uptick at the right-hand side of the graph mirroring the admissions data in Graph Two. It is not yet possible to comment on the significance of this in relation to the Omicron variant as the information has not been provided.
Before turning to Intensive care matters, I thought it would be instructive to draw readers attention to the current situation around influenza. The U.K. Health Security Agency flu surveillance report for week 49 states: “Influenza positivity remained very low at 0.7% in week 48. Other indicators for influenza such as hospital admissions and GP influenza-like illness consultation rates remain very low.” To put that figure of 0.7% into context, the percentage of positive influenza tests at the same date in 2019 was 17%. On October 14th, 2021, Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam told the British Medical Journal: “Not many people got flu last year because of Covid restrictions, so there isn’t as much natural immunity in our communities as usual. We will see flu circulate this winter; it might be higher than usual, and that makes it a significant public health concern.” So far there is absolutely no sign of flu for the second year running.
The intensive care information this week is interesting. Not so much for the data presented in Graph Five, which is fairly flat, but for the data in the weekly ICNARC national audit report around percentages of vaccinated vs unvaccinated patients in ICU.
I have been puzzled for months about why the information in relation to the vaccination status of ICU patients has not been included in the ICNARC updates. Two weeks ago, a tranche of data was released showing that 75% of patients in ICU were unvaccinated. However, although widely and rapidly commented on in the press, the statistics only covered the period from May 1st to July 31st.
This week ICNARC provided more information up to November 14th. The link to the report is here, and the relevant information about vaccination status is on pages 44-46.
In summary, the report finds that 48% of patients currently in ICU are unvaccinated, down from 75% in July. This surprised me because my anecdotal information had led me to believe the percentage of unvaccinated patients in ICU was higher. ICNARC make the reasonable point that the relative increase in the percentage of vaccinated patients in ICU compared to the unvaccinated mirrors the general increase in vaccination uptake in the population as a whole. Furthermore, it is important to recognise that vaccinated people needing ICU care for acute Covid are rarely healthy individuals to start with – the vast majority of vaccinated Covid patients in ICU have major risk factors – the principal ones being advanced age and obesity. It is also possible that in the older cohort some vaccinated patients may have suffered from waning vaccine immunity, having been jabbed early in the year and not yet had a third booster dose.
Based on these figures, if one assumed the entire U.K. population was vaccinated, we would still have about 500 severely ill people in ICU with Covid compared to the current 800 cases. As a comparator, in a bad flu season, there are frequently similar numbers of patients needing critical care in the U.K.
It was disappointing not to see any information in the report on outcomes in relation to vaccinated vs unvaccinated patients, but ICNARC is a superb audit organisation and they will probably get around to analysing this point in due course.
I have been perplexed and troubled by some medical colleagues making disparaging remarks about unvaccinated people in ICU – sometimes verging on suggesting that unvaccinated people should not be given ICU care should they fall ill with Covid. For the sake of clarity, I should make it clear my reading of the data suggests vaccination is highly protective against severe illness and death from Covid in all age groups over 50 and probably substantially beneficial in the over-40s. I personally have had both the standard two doses and a booster. Nevertheless, if some people don’t wish to be vaccinated, that is their right and a valid choice which should under no circumstances affect their future care. All doctors registered in the U.K. are obliged to undergo mandatory training every two years in relation to consent to medical treatment and the capacity of patients to make choices. Capacity is very important in this regard. Even a patient with advanced dementia has capacity to chose what type of treatment they wish to have and what they do not consent to. A doctors duty is to guide, advise and interpret treatment options for patients – not under any circumstances to coerce people down a particular treatment pathway. If a person over 40 wishes not to be vaccinated against Covid, I personally think that is an unwise decision, but it should not affect that individual’s access to medical care in any way, nor should they be stigmatised or vilified for making that choice.
Finally, the Downing Street party affair. Despite this not being a directly medical matter I do think it has some bearing on the overall situation. Besides, just about everyone else in the country has expressed a view and I don’t want to be left out. The asymmetry of rule setting versus rule observance concerns me less than what the incident tells us about the real risks of Covid.
The state functionaries tasked with terrifying the nation into subservience quite clearly do not believe their own message. There is a dissonance between what they say and what they do. Put simply, if Covid really was as great a mortal threat as the Government has led the public to believe, do readers really think that Downing Street apparatchiks would be flocking to packed parties in small rooms? I suspect not.
Consider also that this behaviour was taking place in December 2020 – when the vaccination programme had not even started. The incident reveals that the people disseminating ‘project fear’ knew and still know that Covid poses minimal risk to the majority of the population (and even less now we have a high vaccination uptake). As to what happens in the coming weeks in relation to Omicron, I am sticking with Professor Galbraith – I have no idea but will keep an eye on it and update as we go.
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Obviously, net zero carbon is a project doomed to failure (or maybe success, if one’s goal is to reduce the world’s population by starvation or any other means necessary).
This brings me on to the victory of the Farmers-Citizen Movement (BBB) in the Dutch elections (who stood against the political moves to destroy Dutch farming on the pretext of changing the climate). I suggest that we know from history what the consequences of damaging productive farms are – in “Zimbabwe”, where European farmers were forced out and the former bread basket of Africa became a basket case; in Soviet times when millions starved after the collectivisation of farms; in the PRC where the massacre of sparrows to stop them eating the grain resulted in the proliferation of insects previously eaten by the sparrows,with the insects eating far more grain than the sparrows ever did, causing starvation.
I suggest furthermore that the example from Holland demonstrates that something can be done. I was talking to someone standing as an independent in the upcoming local elections, who relates that you don’t have to pay a deposit to stand, and that it really isn’t that difficult to get your name down on the ballot paper; that you don’t need to give your exact address, and that even without campaigning, you will take votes from people fed up with the old, corrupt parties who just want something different, which especially in marginals will send a message that people are fed up with the whole bunch of them. I would urge all those who feel able (and who haven’t given up on politics altogether) to consider standing, and for those who can’t or won’t stand, to at least support an independent or someone outside the old, corrupt parties who have brought us unprecedented human rights abuses in the last few years (three years next Thursday, lest we forget). It may or may not work, but at least you can feel that you are doing something.
I read something yesterday which says that the BBB is controlled opposition with funding links to Bayer, ie Monsanto which is no friend to the farmer & aligns itself with Agenda 30 & the WEF.
No link to the source so I cannot verify it. If this is so, it’s all very depressing.
Surely the downside is the danger of being elected. Then you would be condemned to spending time with councillors from the older parties who you would not have employed or chosen as friends, such is their general quality.
I think it’s all pretty pointless in the UK with its FPTP uniparty system.
The sabotage of Truss, 50% intending to vote for Labour and just 2% for Heritage which is a proper alternative and the truly scandalous behavior of MPs yesterday just before Andrew Bridgen was about to speak are strong indications of that futility.
TCW has this one out today for those who think otherwise and want to pester their MP a bit:
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/ten-questions-for-your-mp-dont-hold-your-breath-for-the-answers/
I am with Craig Murray (see my/his comment under the SNP article) and the Z Man, who provides the best and most apt descriptions of the hive mindset and workings of the managerial/political class today- why they won’t and simply can’t listen to objections like Prof. Kelly’s against their Covid, Climate, wokeness etc. agendas and the banality of them and how they came and the next ones will come into existence.
https://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=29525
“The thing is, this is not a front brain activity. People are not looking around on every issue, counting noses and anticipating the majority. Instead it is an instinctual thing, arrived at by interacting with the people in close proximity. It is why the metaphor of the hive is so important. Like drones in a hive, the people in the managerial class do not know why they believe what they believe. They just know everyone they know supports men in dresses, so it must be the right thing to do.”
“It Was A ‘Vaccine Strategy’ From The Start”
Seriously? This is the daily sceptic is it not?
Sorry Toby, but you seem to be enjoying the limelight a little too much! Seem to be forgetting your roots amongst all the fame and fortune?
Where the f are you Toby? Too big for us mere plebs now? Rubbing shoulders with the high and mighty all the time leaves a little bit more shit on you!
Seems your getting caught up in all the bright lights, big city! Impressing all your famous mates are you? Careful Toby!!!
4 downticks! Do not question the chosen one! This is the way of the woke!
I love a good rankle!
I’ve got a bad feeling about the direction of the daily sceptic! Anyone else?
There should be 100 downticks and no upticks, but upto now, its 50/50!
Perhaps there are other subscribers on here like me who hardly ever use downticks. Stupidity is not really worth the bother.
“Why “serious” scientists do not buy lab leak
“What’s this all about, Toby?
It’s the title of the linked article, which uses it ironically in a piece suggesting that the virus was deliberately leaked by US agencies, not accidentally by the Chinese. That seems fairly non-mainstream to me.
If you read the article the author is putting forth the theory that the virus was not caused by an animal or that it came from a lab-leak in Wuhan. I agree with him. To exclusively blame the Chinese at this point is to ignore all of the evidence we have of U.S involvement ( they are the architects, after all ) plus the facts that the virus was reported in other countries, not just in addition to China but *before* China, such as the U.S and Italy. I think it is reasonable to believe, based on available evidence, that this virus was made in a lab/labs, and deliberately released in multiple countries.
I stand corrected!
“that this virus was made in a lab/labs, and deliberately released in multiple countries”
Exactly. A point I have made many, many times.
The stories on ds are starting to have a monotonous empty ring to them,like a bell with a crack in it! Getting funding from somewhere else?
If so, say so and I’ll withdraw mine!
Still charging a fiver to get in touch?
I think DS also publish pieces that are alternative in that they challenge our sceptical thinking. I get that some of them rankle because we all have our confirmation biases to varying degrees but it is good to have them challenged now and again. I don’t think DS is becoming more mainstream, just providing some fodder from an alternative perspective for us to read and squabble over. lol A lot of the articles now I don’t even click on as they don’t interest me. We each take what we want from the site and leave the rest. That way there’s something for everyone.
Very diplomatic
There are plenty of echo chambers you will feel fine in on the net, Twitter etc..
I appreciate being confronted with intelligent different opinions than mine here.
The only thing I find annoying are your comments here today.
“Broken promises on immigration have led to a Brexiteer exodus from the Tories”
Or Labour!? Same club!
Don’t vote!
That’s the biggest message you could ever send!
“Nicola Sturgeon’s gender reforms blamed for SNP losing 40% of its membership”
Oh well! We’ll just vote in an Asian replacement!
“Britain is addicted to mass migration – and it is not racist to say this must change”
Whats the true population of the uk? These are the questions the ds used to ask!
Happy St Patrick’s hangover day!
I put this on a story ATL, don’t know if you saw it? Andrew Bridgen talking to an empty House, yesterday….and getting a thoroughly pathetic response…
The thing is YouTube have already deleted it…which someone in Government should be making a song and dance about..but they won’t…..shocking in so many ways….
https://rumble.com/v2dkxea-british-mp-andrew-bridgen-leads-an-adjournment-debate-on-the-efficacy-of-th.html
Jesus wept!
The sad state of British politics!
Where are the hero’s?
Bridgen is a god!
Yeah I posted it last night under a different article. It’s how the bent little shysters all scurry out at the beginning like rats, which is massively insulting to a colleague and speaks volumes, which p’d me off big time!
That was truly stunning, scandalous and hyper anti-democratic.
But it is ignored by the media, even the DS…, and the poisoned sheep need it thus way are absolutely fine with it.
It reminds me of the German parties and media’s undemocratic treatment of the AfD, while simultaneously smearing that party as being the only undemocratic one.
A certain propagandist’s ‘Always accuse the other side of that which you are guilty!’ cones to mind.
Yes…it’s taken me some time as I didn’t recognise the man who speaks at the end…from the BigPharma script…vaccines saved lives, UK should be proud of its vaccine rollout etc etc….
It’s Will Quince who is the Minister of State at the Department of Health and Social Care. He will be going on my ‘never trust or vote for’ list..LOL!
Andrew Bridgen
@ABridgen
.@YouTube have taken down the speech I gave in Parliament today. I am an elected member of the UK Parliament. The speech was given in the Chamber of the House of Commons and responded to by a Government Minister, what chance has anyone else got of putting their views on YouTube?
Oh I’m sure JRM will jump on the case.
Still up on Dr John Campbell’s channel with a short intro from him: (2) UK Parliament – YouTube
The Merkel/UniEssen ties to Wuhan stink and might also explain the head start of Drosten and BioNTech, the Pfizer hookup and the continued political preference of their dodgy product over the other dodgy ones and Germany’s particular Covidian zeal, including its unique, continued and ever more intensifying focus on Long Covid as an umbrella for and deflection from PostVac damages.
This is one of the best, clearest and most shocking analysises of how and where the UK fell apart economically over the last 2 decades. That one chart in particular hit home with me, as I arrived here to flee German socialism in 1995 but am now at the same level of it here as when I left.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/this-budget-not-only-misses-the-point-it-doesnt-even-understand-it/
Plenty of Ukraine stuff here today, so I’ll add this clear debunking of the pathetic sailboat fairy tale by Scott Ritter and a short comment and reference to Sy Hersh’s recent interview with Chris Hedges, where he stated that Z. is in trouble with his generals because he takes a too big cut, in order to prove that his level of info runs very deep.
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2023/march/15/the-nord-stream-andromeda-cover-up/
Thanks for the link.
…yes I’m adding that story to my rubbish bin labelled ‘Racoon Dogs…’…..LOL!
Cock-up? My arse!
This is the reason for the What’sApp messages:
https://twitter.com/CartlandDavid/status/1636837203891421185
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11872853/International-Criminal-Court-issues-arrest-warrant-PUTIN.html
Hmm, I wonder if an arrest warrant will be issued for that scruffy, scrounging git – the Ukrainian military green wearing war puppet, who is expert at jetsetting around the world, extracting vast amounts of taxpayers money from
colludingsympathetic governments?Flu vaccine safety data from the CDC is not what has been promoted…. Quelle surprise!
https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/the-flu-vaccine-is-too-deadly-to
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/my-red-hanger-of-shame/
WTF is this all about?
If our council introduces this scam then everything will be going in one bin. F.’em.
Barstewards.
https://off-guardian.org/2023/03/17/what-one-tweet-can-teach-us-about-fake-news/
Kit Knightly – I share his position entirely.
Bridgen’s HOC speech back up on YT: (3) Efficacy of the mRNA covid-19 booster, 17 Mar 2023 – YouTube
He states vaxx program has cost UK £8.3BN so far – not sure if that includes payouts for vaxx injuries. Costs > £9M to prevent one hospitalisation for covid for healthy 30-39 year olds.
An article in the Spectator Australia about the suppression of Ivermectin as a treatment:-
https://www.spectator.com.au/2023/03/did-the-ivermectin-ban-cost-lives/