In a recent article, I noted that vaccine effectiveness against death may have been overestimated due to the ‘healthy vaccinee’ effect – the tendency for people who get vaccinated to be healthier and more risk-averse than those who don’t.
Likewise, Will Jones recently reported on a large Swedish study, which observed declining effectiveness against severe outcomes, particularly after six months. Discouragingly, the decline in effectiveness was most pronounced among older, frail individuals – the group most at risk from Covid.
Now a new study (which hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed) has made a similar finding. Maxime Taquet and colleagues analysed data from a large database of electronic health records in the U.S.
Their sample comprised ~19,000 individuals who’d had a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between January 1st and August 31st 2021. There were two groups: those who had been vaccinated at least 14 days prior to infection, and those who had not been vaccinated prior to infection.
The two groups were matched not only on basic demographic characteristics, but also on a large number of medical risk factors. In addition, the unvaccinated individuals were selected from among those who’d ever received a flu vaccine. Overall, substantial efforts were made to ensure the two groups were comparable.
Taquet and colleagues’ main finding is shown in the figure below. The lines on each chart show the cumulative probability of death for vaccinated and unvaccinated people, respectively. (Note: they also looked at other severe outcomes; see Fig. 3.)
The chart on the left indicates that, on average, vaccinated people had a lower risk of death than unvaccinated people. However, as the other two charts indicate, this difference was seen primarily in those under 60. Among those over 60, it was small and not statistically significant. The authors note:
Receiving 2 vaccine doses was associated with lower risks for most outcomes. Associations between prior vaccination and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection were marked in those < 60 years-old, whereas no robust associations were observed in those ≥ 60 years-old.
Why would vaccination have a stronger effect among those under 60? The researchers speculate that:
In younger patients, effective B-cell response to vaccination might be followed by infection with variants against which antibodies have less neutralising activity … In older patients, the B-cell response to vaccination might itself be ineffective
It’s important to keep in mind that their finding concerns the risk of death conditional on SARS-CoV-2 infection. To the extent to that the vaccine protects against infection, it will protect against serious illness and death too.
However, it’s still noteworthy that effectiveness against death in over 60s was minimal among those who had been infected. Of course, this is just one study, so it shouldn’t be given too much credence. But the researchers did make substantial efforts to ensure the two groups were comparable and thereby obviate the ‘healthy vaccinee’ effect.
If their finding is true, it would suggest that previous observational studies have overestimated vaccine effectiveness against severe outcomes in older age-groups. It would also suggest that most of the protective effect for these age-groups comes from immunity against infection, which we know wanes rapidly in the absence of boosters.
The evidence from Taquet and colleagues’ paper could therefore be taken as supporting voluntary boosters for high-risk groups, as well as the continued build-up of natural immunity in the rest of the population.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
Many thanks to the Daily Sceptic team for all their work throughout another testing year. Have a wonderful, well deserved Christmas.
To all contributors and subscribers Best Wishes for a Happy Christmas. Let’s keep this site together.
Mine’s a large one. Cheers.
🍺🍺🍺🥃
Seconded, Hux. We may have moaners about DS, but it is doing a valuable job. It is getting an alternative narrative out to people prepared to listen and do their own thinking. Its a long road before us, and our opposition to the global blob is bound to fail, but not to try would be the greater shame.
Merry Christmas, if you do, Happy holidays, if you don’t.
Much appreciated Neil.👍
It depends how ‘alternative’ you want to be, but then we’d spend all day arguing about nano-bots. The MSM does report many of the ‘events of the day’ but many with a strong left bias. We should not reject the MSM completely, but rather see the picture behind what they are offering, i.e. an alternative view. If there is a site with better alternative view, perhaps you’ll share its location.?
Merry Christmas, hux, and to all of the decent, respectful posters to this most valuable site, who still make up the majority, thankfully. My living room looks like an explosion in a wrapping paper factory, but the cat’s enjoying herself so I’m leaving it… 🙂 And what could be more appropriate than a Christmas monologue from our Neil Oliver;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBS16GjWsPk&ab_channel=GBNews
Thanks Mogs. Have a good one.🥂
Seconded.
I wonder if the DS were more transparent about income and costs whether more would donate – I suspect they may be getting kept going currently by the personal largesse of one or two people and perhaps often unpaid work. Not intended as a criticism – just a suggestion. I think people would love it go from strength to strength but sometimes we have unrealistic expectations. I’m sure running a site like this and expanding the coverage to include more original content is far from simple or cheap.
Agreed!,
Merry Christmas and a happy new year to one and all of you! 🥂🌲
Yes, Merry Xmas. Merry Xmas to everyone. Particularly those who are incapable of respecting different opinions and utterly consumed by hate – I wish you all the very best.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/time-to-start-thinking-the-unthinkable-about-king-charles-iii/
This short article posted today over at TCW. Very disparaging about Charlie Windsor. He’s got to go as I have been posting for many months.
He’s a treasonous barsteward.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/propaganda-roundup-hillary-claims-climate-change-targets-pregnant-women/5843773
“We know, and estimate*, that we probably could measure about 500,000 deaths [from climate change last year], and the majority of those are women and girls, and particularly pregnant women,” Hillary Clinton declared at a climate change summit recently — one she almost certainly transported herself to via private jet.”
Firkin evil cow.
This is a cracker.
A group of protesters go in to a Bezos Whole Food store, steal food and exit wearing Bezos face masks.
God Bless them.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/road-freedom-one-liberated-apple-time/5844029
Apologies. I forgot the bloody link.
(Re – stealing from Bezos / Whole Foods).
I’m not even a Christian and I celebrate Christmas, because it’s tradition here in the West and how I was brought up. I also manage to respect the important festivals and holidays of other religions throughout the year. This seems beyond the capabilities of many members of society, apparently, with videos and stories all over social media of hateful yobs trashing Christmas trees and decorations, gatecrashing Santa’s grotto and scaring the kids or the decapitation of nativity figures in various countries. Basic respect for others appears to be an old-fashioned concept which is losing value these days, evidently. Nobody should be spoiling anybody’s festivities and important celebrations, end of. It comes to something though, when the bleeding obvious needs pointed out. 🙁
”With Europe’s Christian identity in the crosshairs, Christmas is under fire, both literally and metaphorically. On the one hand, extremists threaten to target festive gatherings and celebrations. On the other hand, the woke agenda is attempting to cancel Christmas as a non-inclusive holiday.
This year especially, security concerns are of unprecedented gravity. “With the upcoming holiday season, there is a huge risk of terrorist attacks in the European Union,” said Ylva Johansson in early December. The EU Home Affairs Commissioner has already been proven right – as has Thomas Haldenwang, the president of Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution who said that “a new dimension (of threat) is now emerging”.
However, Christmas is not only threatened by militant extremists. It is the woke agenda too, together with political correctness, that aim at cancelling the very nature of Christendom’s biggest celebration.
It was two years ago, when the European Commission received heavy criticism for an internal guidelines document which advised that Christmas be substituted with “holiday period”. And though the document was retracted, the general spirit remains.
Groups and NGOs for inclusiveness, like Watch this Space, are warning that festivities could be exclusionary to those who do not celebrate Christmas, and are calling for workplaces to forgo their usual office Christmas celebrations in order to cater to all employees’ tastes and beliefs.”
https://brusselssignal.eu/2023/12/lets-stand-up-for-christmas/
I utterly despise any body or organisation which seeks to undermine Christians and Christmas. I hope they rot.
Christmas celebrates the birth of Jesus Christ. There is no evil in Christ’s message and fundamentally the modern celebration of Christmas is all about family. It is the breakdown of family and family values that is undermining our society.
I will always celebrate Christmas.
Well said, HP. I would add that the deliberate undermining of Christianity and religion generally by “the globalist machine” (let’s call it) has left a massive hole in people’s lives. I think, even for non-practicing Christians, Christian culture and values (humility, kindness, respect for others, etc) hugely underpinned European society.
Happy Christmas all…
Well put Michael.
Thanks HP
Quite! I may add that when I lived in Easton, inner city Bristol 30 years back, where many Muslims also lived, our Muslim neighbours would always say “Happy Christmas” to us, and admire the rather fabulously decorated Xmas tree we had in our front window. They were also largely responsible for the economic regeneration of the area. Not multicultural, but multi-ethnic, with many Indians and West Indians there, it was a community at ease with itself.
Sadly, further generations have thrown that all away
The loss of Christianity as the core behind the West means quite simply the collapse of the West. Any culture that loses the common belief that binds it together is in a death spiral.
As we are witnessing.
Impossible not to agree.
It is apparent the Tories have been round all their sympathisers in the MSM to get favourable stories. The best Heffer could do was to say Labour would be even worse. Hardly a basis for enthusiasm among their remaining members!
Vote Reform!
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/it-was-christmas-day-at-the-sunaks/
A little bit of light-hearted relief from TCW although there’s anger in the doggerel.
A very Merry Christmas to you all , including your family’s & friends & everyone at The DS 🎄🎅🍻🥰
200 acres of glass in Peak District is bad enough but we are getting 900 acres on the one bit of reclaimed marsh on Swale/Thames Estuary that is not a SSSI or nature reserve. It includes a 700 MWh battery to game the system by smoothing the supply troughs it causes; also the toxic fumes when it explodes of course.
https://www.favershameye.co.uk/post/project-fortress-previously-known-as-cleve-hill
It’s not just Harvard – it’s all of US and UK academia. Better still, over here we fund the production of economically useless graduates, who leave University hell bent on destroying the civilisation that reared them.
Stop public funding, and it will be stopped in its tracks
Of course Harvard and places like it have huge endowments and are financially independent. Probably Oxford, Cambridge, Imperial too.
But I agree.
Much less so at UK universities, Cambridge did look at option of detaching itself from HMG teat. Cambridge at least saw off the ghastly Toope and 87% of Regent House voted to substitute ‘tolerate’ for ‘respect’ in his sinister ‘Free Speech’ proposals (the complete opposite of course). Prof. Ahmed has been appointed Director of freedom of speech and academic freedom, which is some progress at least, he lead the revolt against Toope.
https://www.cai.cam.ac.uk/news/prof-ahmed-appointed-director-freedom-speech-and-academic-freedom
That’s interesting about the vote – I didn’t know that. Regent House consists of academics – I had to look that up. The other two amendments were good too. I wonder how the students would have voted.
Cambridge has an endowment of £9 billion and an annual budget of £2 billion so they’d still need to charge fees, but I can’t see them having trouble finding people to pay fees that are not paid for by the so-called “student loans”.
Wishing everyone a peaceful Christmas. Stay strong and keep asking questions. Don’t self-censor. We will prevail. Support free speech above all.
👍👍👍