The ‘stylized facts’ concerning vaccine effectiveness against Covid are as follows. First, the vaccines confer strong protection against infection, which peaks about one month after the second dose. However, this protection then wanes over the following five or six months to as low as 20% (or even lower).
Second, the vaccines also confer strong protection against serious illness and death, and this protection wanes much more slowly. Hence, six months after vaccination, the vaccinated still have substantial protection against death.
While these stylized facts are approximately right, there’s reason to believe that vaccine effectiveness against death has been overestimated. Note: by ‘overestimated’ I simply mean that effectiveness may be somewhat lower than is claimed, not that effectiveness is zero (or even close to zero).
The reason effectiveness against death may have been overestimated was highlighted in a recent study by the U.S. CDC. Using data on a large cohort of Americans, Stanley Xu and colleagues calculated non-Covid death rates (adjusted for age and sex) among vaccinated and unvaccinated persons.
Their findings are shown in the figure below (taken from the Economist). Notice that, on both charts, the light blue bar is much higher than the other two bars, indicating that non-Covid death rates were substantially higher among the unvaccinated.
The researchers interpreted their results as evidence of vaccine safety. (If the vaccines were very unsafe, you’d expect a lot more non-Covid deaths in the vaccine groups.) However, there’s another implication, which the researchers also acknowledge: people who get vaccinated tend to be healthier and/or more risk-averse than those who don’t.
How do we explain this ‘healthy vaccinee’ effect? There are at least two possibilities. First, some people may be too frail to get vaccinated, due to old age or underlying health conditions. Second, some people may just be inherently healthier/more risk-averse, and as a result may be more likely to get vaccinated and less likely to die of other causes.
The CDC researchers actually attempted to control for the healthy vaccinee effect by selecting unvaccinated persons from among those who’d had at least one flu shot in the last two years. The fact that they still observed a difference in death rates suggests the true effect may be even larger.
While the CDC’s results might be good news from the perspective of vaccine safety, they’re bad news from the perspective of vaccine effectiveness.
Suppose you do a study, and find that the Covid death rate is ten times higher among unvaccinated people than among vaccinated people. That difference could be due to the vaccines. But it could also be due to the fact that vaccinated people are less likely to die for any reason.
Observational studies of vaccine effectiveness do attempt to control for the healthy vaccinee effect, for example by including some measure of health/frailty as another variable in the analysis. However, these kinds of measures may not capture all the relevant differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
Consider Israel. By the start of June, the country had fully vaccinated 55% of its population (and an even higher percentage of adults). Despite this, and despite having gone through two previous waves of Covid, the country saw a major third wave associated with the Delta variant. Here’s the chart of daily Covid deaths:
One might have assumed that natural immunity from the two previous waves, combined with a 55% vaccination rate, would have kept deaths to a minimum. Yet the number of deaths was still substantial, at least relative to the previous waves. This is particularly evident if we look at excess mortality:
Total excess mortality in Israel’s third was about the same as in its first wave, and was actually higher than in its second wave. Now, it’s true that a disproportionate share of Covid deaths were among the unvaccinated. But this is consistent with the healthy vaccinee effect.
Of course, I’m not claiming that a plot of excess mortality in one country constitutes a serious analysis. Mortality would presumably have been higher absent the vaccination campaign. However, it’s hard to reconcile the chart above with claims of, say, 90% effectiveness against death.
To repeat: I’m not claiming the vaccines aren’t effective against serious illness and death; only that their effectiveness (after two doses) may have been overstated. Offering the vaccine to over 50s still makes sense as a way to achieve focused protection.
Discussion
Comments
This week across the site:
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Jim Woodgett, former Director of Research at Mount Sinai Hospital (2005-2021)
Answered May 5, 2021
The SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein encodes a 1273 amino acid protein. Multiple by 3 to get the number of nucleotides and add some untranslated regions for directing translational start and aiding in stability it rounds to approximately 5,000 nucleotides. 1 nucleotide of RNA has a mass of (averaged) of 320 Daltons. So an RNA comprised of 5,000 nucleotides has a mass of 1600 kiloDaltons.
There are 30 micrograms of RNA in a Pfizer/BioNTech single dose (in 0.3 ml). That means there are about 11.3 x 10 to the power of 12 molecules of RNA per shot.
(First shot?)11,300,000,000,000 molecules of RNA (11,300 Trillion) approximately.
The Moderna shot typically uses more RNA.
Erwin Claassen, Wetenschappelijk Huurling at Waar Niet
Answered May 5, 2021
(2nd Shot) a shitload… dose is 100µg of mRNA (not all vaccines is mRNA), that is around 505.440.000.000.000.000.000.000 copies… more or less (505,440 Trillion Trillion)
Me: Which is more mRNA particles, than the blood cells, you have in your body.
So if you have a 3rd booster that might tanslate to a further 1,010,880 Trillion, Trillion, Trillion mRNA particles in your body?
mRNa is… Read more »
Doctor Warns Covid Jabs: “A Programmed Self-Destruction Of The Body”
Published on November 22, 2021
Written by Pierre Gosselin
A German doctor warns Corona vaccines are toxic…each booster become increasingly dangerous…which is tantamount to self-destruction
When you ask COVID vaccine proponents how these mRNA type vaccines work, most either don’t know, or give you the wrong answer. Very few really understand how the spike protein interacts with the immunes system and thus accept the vaccine based on faith.
German site “Lawyers for Fundamental Rights” has a post by Dr. Christian Fiala, a general practitioner, specialist in gynecology and obstetrics, with training in tropical medicine presents very clearly how the mRNA type “vaccine” works and its very real risk.
The post reads:
First our immune system is highly complex and it recognizes a pathogen or foreign cell on the basis of the cell surface and destroys the cell that carries these antigens. This principle is used in vaccinations. For this purpose, a pathogen is usually or killed so that it can no longer cause an infection.
An essential feature of the immune system is the strict differentiation between one’s own cells and foreign cells. Only in this way is a healthy… Read more »
The vaccines are 100% ineffective. Read Steve Kirsch’s blogs, sub stack, tweets. That is it. They Dom ot work, but boy do they cause adverse events and deaths. Depopulation as planned.
Contrary to the belief that those who choose to be vaccinated are healthier/more health conscious – I would say the unvaccinated choose to stay that way for those exact reasons.
‘To repeat: I’m not claiming the vaccines aren’t effective against serious illness and death’……You should claim it because it’s just as true!!
And some healthy, risk averse people say no, on the basis they are more at risk from the product on offer compared with the disease itself.
Further to Rubbish – Below: I picked up a dose of a viral infection the day before yesterday, it might have been when I was out shopping or at the doctor’s surgery – I have NOT had the vaccine and won’t if I can avoid it “here”
I had the peppery feeling in my nose, which usually suggests a cold, so I did my salt water sniffle, which I repeat below, and had a slight reaction to the salt, so I did my salt water treatment again, straight afterwards and this time I had a strong reaction to the salt, from my left nostril right up into my hair line – I would describe it best if I could have split my head in two equal halves, the left half was the sore side, in my brain and to the top of my skull the right half was clear – I have NEVER had that experience previously with my salt water sniffle.
I left the salt in my head for another couple of hours and I had a slight head-achy feel at the top part of my head, which another salt water cure erased and afterwards I blew out my… Read more »
Rubbish – vaccines don’t work – they just make the whole thing much worse:UKHSA Report proves this is a ‘Pandemic of the Fully Vaccinated’ and the data shows the Vaccinated are TWICE as likely to die and are about to overwhelm the NHS
By The Exposé on November 19, 2021
The UK Health Security Agency has published its latest Covid-19 Vaccine Surveillance report and yet again it has revealed that the majority of Covid-19 cases, hospitalisations, and deaths were among the fully vaccinated population over the past month.
But a more detailed look at three months worth of Covid-19 data published by the agency has revealed that current projections show the fully vaccinated are in for a very rough winter, infections rates are much higher among the fully vaccinated, and the hospitalisation-fatality rate among the vaccinated is 124% higher than the fatality rate among the unvaccinated population.
The latest Vaccine Surveillance report from the UK Health Security Agency was published Thursday November 18th and covers data on infections, hospitalisations and deaths from Week 42 to Week 45 of 2021 (October 18th – November 14th).
The report reveals that there were 850,438 recorded Covid-19 cases, 9,760 Covid-19 hospitalisations and 3,650 Covid-19… Read more »
While the MSM condemns the use of ivermectin, the most populated state in India just declared they are officially COVID free after promoting widespread use of the safe, proven medicine. In addition to this, Ivermectin attaches to covid spikes and prevents them from binding to ACE2. Get your Ivermectin today while you still can! https://ivmpharmacy.com
I am claiming the vaccines aren’t effective against serious illness and death; not just that their effectiveness (after two doses) has been overstated. Offering the vaccine to healthy over 50s still makes no sense at all. I think that’s clear, but I’d hypothesise based on the totality of evidence also that the vaccines are doing net harm too.
To be clear I’m talking about all cause death and all cause hospitalisation. Unvaccinated deaths and unvaccinated hospitalisations may be more likely to be labelled as covid. But as an unvaccinated person, if you die of another cause and have your death labelled as covid or the positive test is incidental to the condition which kills you, that is not death caused by being unvaccinated. You still die.
An if you are terminally ill and are not experimentally vaccinated you don’t die through being unvaccinated. You die of your terminal illness.
Thank you for the insightful observations. Trial Site News published a story today about this study – it was done by Kaiser Permanente. The study found that the death rate for the unvaccinated is 11.1 per 1000 persons and the vaccinated death rate is 3.5/1000 for Pfizer and 3.4/1000 for Moderna. Last year I did an intensive study of all cause mortality rates in the US and in a typical year the all cause death rate is approx 8.5/1000. This is a clear indication that the Kaiser study vaccinated group is a poor representation of the average population, otherwise how can the vaccinated groups have less than half of the expected all cause mortality – 3.5 vs 8.5/1000?
Reposting my analysis from some time ago
Here is a chart I produced from the data in the recent ONS publication Deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status, England: deaths occurring between 2 January and 24 September 2021
It compares the mortality over time of the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations (per 100,000 in each category) in relation to deaths with a) a positive test for SARS-C0V-2 i.e covid (labelled) deaths and b) non covid deaths.
Looking at the unvaccinated only: It shows in the age 60-69 age group the rate per 100,000 of covid labelled deaths started reducing from the end of January (the dotted green line) before the vaccination gained pace, but while this fall was happening non-covid deaths more than doubled up to April (the green dashed peak in the chart). Covid down non-covid up, very weird.
Part of the explanation is that the proportions of unvaccinated are substantially understated and this in turn if corrected for may reduce the size of the green dashed peak, the understatent becomes more relevant as the unvaccinated group becomes smaller. But even correction of a very substantial unvaccinated population understatement is not going to remove the peak completely, just lower it. As… Read more »
Another example of this healthy user bias can be seen in relation to the selection that is going on as to who has the second inoculation in this same age 60-69 age group.
From the attached chart you can see a sudden and extreme increase in the all cause death rate in the single vaccinated around May/June.
As second inoculations are happening at a super fast rate in May/June there is a very sudden and sharp jump in the single jabbed death rate (the blue line)
What I suggest is happening is that there is a sub-group of people too ill to get the second inoculation who very rapidly get left behind as major occupants of the single jabbed group causing the death rate to shoot up. These are people who have become ill temporally after the first inoculation.
https://bartram.substack.com/p/the-importance-of-the-delay-between
He also did some work on this too frail to vaxx topic in an earlier 3 part series.
This is his very latest about the time delay impact which Prof Fenton looked into earlier.
For those not wishing to look too deep into it, scroll towards the end: the ‘vaccines’ come out badly in every instance.
Covid1984 injection.
The only “vaccine” in the world who’s failure is blamed on people that never took it
They should include vaccine deaths when taking into account effectiveness against death.
In Scotland 91% of Covid deaths over the last 3 months have been in the jabbed.
67% of Covid hospitalisations have been in the jabbed.
I’ll stick to my naturally acquired memory B and T cell immunity if you don’t mind.
https://dailyexpose.uk/2021/11/18/91-percent-covid-19-deaths-among-the-fully-vaccinated/
I know a 28 year old who took the first jab. He found himself being drawn into the vaxx clinic on the local high street for a second shot – he told the nurse he was unsure, so she re-assured him by saying that if he doesnt take the second jab, he will probably end up on a ventilator and will die. This is a 28 year old male. He walked out of there double jabbed – he took a Covid AND a flu jab at the same time. This is terrorism and these are war crimes. These nurses are brainwashed but its hard to feel sympathy when they are committing such acts of evil against people I like.
That’s so very scary
Should also say I hhopae he is ok
“Note: by ‘overestimated’ I simply mean that effectiveness may be somewhat lower than is claimed, not that effectiveness is zero (or even close to zero).”
Only needed to get to that point to recognize the voice of Noah, the reluctant vaccine sceptic, shouting at the flood of information.
Microwave weaponry in action in schools: EVIDENCE:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/99rauzcVVasY/
New talk by Chris Martenson
https://www.peakprosperity.com/court-blocks-osha-vaccine-mandate/#comment-1041835
No benefit to US all-cause mortality, in fact it’s up in 2021 vs 2020 (except for over 85 y olds!)
Public health officials come out of it worst. They haven’t exerted any control over companies whose *legal duty* is to maximise profits for shareholders. I’d say that the pharma companies have been extremely effective at meeting this rather narrow goal, i.e. more $$$$ in the CEO’s and shareholders’ bank accounts.
“some people may just be inherently healthier/more risk-averse, and as a result may be more likely to get vaccinated and less likely to die of other causes.”
I’m sure that the “death protection” has been overrated but I don’t buy this as a possible reason.
IME vaccinatics are most likely to be unhealthy fatties who are looking to the jabbyjab to save them from their poor lifestyle choices. Despite this, they also seem to be sick all the time now!
It seems that those who are not getting sucked into the hysteria are more likely to be athletic and also less risk averse since they understand that the risks of the jabs are greater to them than the risk of covid.
If you look at the UKHSA data, the % of deaths as a proportion of hospitalisations by dbl Vacc/non Vacc is not that different, so if you get as far as needing hospitalisation then the virus has developed to a level that being vaccinated does not help that much.
The key question then is how much the vaccination helps reduce hospitalisation in the first place?
The UKHSA figures show that admissions as a % of cases are higher for non-vacc versus dble vaccd, roughly 3-4x in the 70+ category, and 7-10x in the 40-69 category (looking at the most at risk groups), with the 10x “benefit” figure being the one referenced a lot.
However, when you look at admissions as a % of that specific population in total, the relative figures drop to roughly 2-3x in the 70+ category, and 3-4x in the 40-69 category. This implies cases are being reported at a much lower level in the Un-Vaccinated population, especially under 70s, which is what you might expect based on demographic/social differences in outlook between the two groups.
Interestingly, if you look at the same data (admissions as a % of dbl-Vacc/un-vacc population), but 9 weeks ago, the relative… Read more »
So what are people thinking about the blatant false flag Christian convert terror attack in the hospital. I have very limited internet access so cannot do the research I would like to. UK Column covered it, but does anyone have anything interesting to share?
UK Column News – 17th November 2021
https://www.bitchute.com/video/KegPQBNuEwhX/
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2021/4/contents/enacted
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54274605
https://www.bailii.org/uk/cases/UKIPTrib/2019/IPT_17_186_CH.html
Austria has announced that there will be a legal requirement to get vaccinated from 1 February 2022 – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59343650?at_custom4=9DD886C2-491D-11EC-98AC-6F3616F31EAE&at_medium=custom7&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom3=%40BBCBreaking&at_campaign=64
Legal requirement my arse!
Notice how governments around the world are all setting future dates by when certain groups have to be vaccinated, in order to “encourage” the unvaccinated to succumb. The dates and sizes of the groups involved vary dependent on what the governments in each country think they can get away with, but the pattern is clear enough.
It’s almost as if they are all following a coordinated plan.
Still, that would be a conspiracy theory and we can’t have that. All governments are moving in a totalitarian direction purely coincidentally.
Yes this is nudging. Because such mandates cannot be legal, they have to appear as if they will be…in the future….thus putting off the evaluation of the legality of this announcement.
Here is Anna de Buisseret on the real legal situation for those facing loss of employment and our rights as citizens. All of this is ILLEGAL and cannot stand in a court.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/YQtkNb03lfs/
Professor Norman Fenton’s analysis suggests the number of unvaccinated is significantly underestimated.
He notes that, according to ONS , the ‘steady state’ non-covid mortality RATE is around 40% higher in unvaccinated. This makes no sense. When Prof. Fenton adjusts rates so that non-covid mortality is the same for both vaccinated and unvaccinated there is a post jab spike in vaccinated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6umArFc-fdc
It seems that the vaccines were only slightly effective for a very brief period before the Delta variant arrived. (Leaving out all of the elderly people it killed almost immediately due to adverse reactions of course).
Since the arrival of Delta they seem to do nothing to prevent infection, nothing to prevent transmission and nothing to prevent serious illness or death, in fact the data suggests that the vaccinated fare worse than the unvaccinated when infected with Delta.
It’s such a shame that no scientists advised against a vaccination programme in the middle of a pandemic due to the risk of vaccine-resistant strains developing, or of creating a vaccine which only delivered immunity against one protein in the virus, or attempting to create a coronavirus vaccine when all previous attempts had ended in failure and vaccine injury, or of rushing out a novel vaccine technology to billions of people worldwide without undergoing the normal levels of clinical trials.
If only someone had thought of that.
Oh, wait…
I think the big issue here is that modern society thinks that we can science our way out of anything, when sometimes the cure is actually worse than the disease.
If Covid had happened in the 50’s then it’d have been just another bad flu going around. Life would have continued as normal, and the government would be playing down the bug to stop people panicking.
Now we have governments playing up the panic, shutting everything down, forcing experimental medication on the population, and oppressing those who just want to get on with life.
Agreed.
And the 24 hour news media running around like headless chickens saying “DO SOMETHING” to the politicians doesn’t help.
We should introduce a new law saying that no broadcaster can broadcast more than a total of 1 hour of news programmes a day. Because any more than that and they just fill the time with speculation, panic, and agenda-driven propaganda.
Social media is also a major part of the problem – it just amplifies the bedwetting tendencies.
Yes, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that I am the only unvaccinated amongst my family and close friends, and I am also the only one who isn’t on facebook and twitter and WhatsApp and doesn’t have a television licence.
Hasn’t this effect been seen in a lot of the analysis (Norman Fenton etc) and isn’t the effect something that appeared in the early parts of the year and has disappeared as the year progressed. It may be simply that the very frail are not taking the jab. If the jab worked some sort of positive magic then overall mortality for the year would be lower in 2021 vs 2020 but it doesn’t appear to be heading that way.
Simple question: how are they defining “unvaccinated”? If, as in the UK, it includes those who have been jabbed less than 21 days previously, that changes things
With 150 people dying double vaccinated in Northern Ireland in September alone, a 90% effectiveness would mean over 1,400 lives or so we’re saved from Covid alone.
Average monthly deaths from all causes in a month is usually around 1,300.
The numbers for effectiveness are obviously being over estimated.
I agree with the risk-averse bit, assuming that is just a polite way of saying “frightened of Covid”. But I’m not sure about the healthier bit. All of the unjabbed that I know (me, wifey, dozen or more others), all are people who pay more attention to their health (eat better, exercise more) and, if anything, have gone to greater lengths since Covid first appeared.
that may be true of you – and I am unjabbed, healthy and well educated
but – statistically – the unjabbed cohort tends to the working class, people on the edges of society, people who can’t take time off work, hand to mouth etc – and these people have a life expectancy about 20 years less than the jabbed ‘worried well’
the unjabbed cohort are more likely to die of anything and if they tested +ve in the previous 28 days will go down as covid. I expect this has not been accounted for