The latest Public Health England (PHE) Vaccine Surveillance report was released on Thursday, meaning we can update our estimates of unadjusted vaccine effectiveness from real-world data.
As before, the report itself states this is “not the most appropriate method” to assess vaccine effectiveness as it is not adjusted for various confounders (and they do not provide the data that would allow such adjustments to be made). ‘Fact-checking’ website Full Fact (funded by Big Tech) are currently trying to censor the Daily Sceptic because, they claim, this means it is ‘incorrect’ to use the data in the report to calculate vaccine effectiveness. This is not true, however: regardless of what PHE deems to be the “most appropriate method”, vaccine effectiveness is defined as the reduction in the proportion of infections in the vaccinated group compared to the unvaccinated group, and it is perfectly acceptable to estimate it from population data, as long as any limitations in the data are acknowledged.
It is certainly not ‘incorrect’ to use the latest population-based data to get an up-to-date estimate of unadjusted vaccine effectiveness as part of tracking how the vaccines are performing on the ground.
Perhaps the most important limitations in this data are that the high-risk were originally prioritised for vaccination and that those who have been previously infected may be more likely to decline vaccination. Both of these would artificially lower the estimate of vaccine effectiveness. However, a recent population study in the Lancet adjusted its vaccine effectiveness estimates to take account of no fewer than 22 different confounding factors, including these, and in almost all cases this resulted in very little change. For instance, here are the adjusted and unadjusted estimates against infection by age. (Note that the high values here are for the whole study period; what the study showed overall is that in more recent months vaccine effectiveness has been dropping fast.)
Two stay the same, two change by one point, one changes by two points and one changes by three points. This is typical of the vaccine effectiveness estimates in the study, with very few exceptions. This suggests that the unadjusted estimates from large population studies like this are already very close to the mark in most cases, with any adjustments being small. This gives us reason for confidence that the unadjusted estimates from the PHE data, even if, according to them, not “the most appropriate method”, will be sufficiently close to be useful.
So here, without further ado, is the table with the latest unadjusted vaccine effectiveness estimates, for the period September 6th to October 3rd. (For the previous three tables see my previous post.)
Note that unvaccinated here means actually unvaccinated, not partially vaccinated or post-jab. Hospitalisation means “cases presenting to emergency care (within 28 days of a positive specimen) resulting in an overnight inpatient admission”.
Strikingly, the (unadjusted) vaccine effectiveness (VE) in over-18s continues to drop. For those in their 40s it hits nearly minus-86% this week, down from minus-66% in last week’s report. This means the double-vaccinated in their 40s are now getting on for being almost twice as likely to be infected as the unvaccinated of the same age. Those in their 50s, 60s and 70s have similarly super-low VE estimates, while the unadjusted VE for those in their 30s goes negative for the first time, having been dropping for some weeks. For the under-18s, on the other hand – which is the group currently being vaccinated – it actually went up, from 84% to 88%.
Public health officials should be making a priority of investigating the reasons for this alarming inversion of vaccine effect in the over-30s. The fact that instead we have an effort from Government-approved ‘fact-checkers’ to suppress the reporting of it is disturbing, to say the least.
Vaccine effectiveness against serious disease and death continues to hold up well, save in the over-80s, where VE against hospitalisation has dropped from 59% to 51% since last week’s report, which is worrying as most of the deaths are in the over-80s. Effectiveness against death in the over-80s has been sliding more gradually from 70% in weeks 32-35 down to 64% in weeks 36-39, a month later.
Oddly, the text of the report contains an error. It states: “The rate of a positive COVID-19 test is substantially lower in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals up to the age of 39.” This is the same statement (word-for-word) the surveillance reports have made since they started reporting this data in week 36. However, it clearly is no longer true for those in their 30s, where the infection rate in the vaccinated is now slightly higher than in the unvaccinated, and needs updating.
A new PHE Technical Briefing has also been published recently, but we cannot update our VE estimates from that data as we usually do as they have decided to discontinue including it. A note explains:
Cases, hospitalisation, attendance and deaths by vaccination status are now presented in the COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report and therefore this data will not be produced in future editions of the variant technical briefing. These tables will be reinstated in the technical briefing if new variants of concern arise.
This is a pity as the Technical Briefing data, while limited to sequenced Delta positive tests, was useful because it went back to February and was published with a fortnight added at a time, allowing data for each two-week period to be analysed. The Vaccine Surveillance report data, on the other hand, only appears in four-week chunks a week at a time, preventing finer analysis, and only goes back to August.
What is really needed, of course, is for the full anonymised data to be released so that it can be analysed independently of Government and its favoured scientists. This is what those in Government and Parliament who care about transparency and truth should be pushing hard for, as without such full transparency the scope for real accountability is limited.
In the meantime, this real-world data from PHE, with infection rates in the double-vaccinated hugely outpacing those in the unvaccinated across many age groups, continues to make a mockery of the vaccine passports and mandates that have become oddly popular even as the data mounts-up that they are pointless.
Discussion
Comments
This week across the site:
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to the Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSZMtSPX3iE
watch this. Short & sweet.
Nice work.
I don’t suppose there’s data for all cause mortality and hospital admissions rates for vaccinated vs unvaccinated people? Now THAT would be interesting reading.
The table seems to be incomplete the cases per 100,000 is obviously cases per 100,000 population but what are the hospitalisation and deaths? Population or cases? Also why are deaths higher than hospitalisation for the over 80s?
isn’t it about time that you start writing about the real reasons of this “Pandemic” ? this circus? this agenda? you guys know by now right?
“In the meantime, this real-world data from PHE, with infection rates in the double-vaccinated hugely outpacing those in the unvaccinated across many age groups, continues to make a mockery of the vaccine passports and mandates that have become oddly popular even as the data mounts-up that they are pointless.”
So WTF is this (attached headline) all about then?
Vaccine passports are it seems, to be mandated in UK mid December 2021!
Anyone still thinking that we are just a bunch of crazies with conspiracy theory complexes?
The sleepy sheepies must surely be starting to see this for what it really is by now FFS!
BandStand in BlakePark – Bridgwater – Somerset. Every Sunday 10am meet like minded people who can see the bleedin’ obvious.
Telegram: Connecting Warriors.
Other venues are available all over the country but you wont find their detais on MSM.
A good start would be Telegram groups for your area.
Please complete – instructions at the bottom
Time is running out to respond to the Government’s consultation on vaccine passports
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/time-is-running-out-to-respond-to-the-governments-consultation-on-vaccine-passports/
GUIDANCE FOR RESPONDING (IN 2 MINUTES!) TO THE GOVERNMENT’S NEW CONSULTATION ON COVID PASSPORTS
https://bigbrotherwatch.org.uk/2021/09/guidance-for-responding-in-2-minutes-to-the-governments-new-consultation-on-covid-passports/
Please watch Steve Kirsch’s two hour presentation regarding the adverse events and deaths post vaxx. It is an eye watering report. Steve is a MIT educated engineer. He has challenged anyone who can show him his collection of data is wrong, a sum of a million dollars. Not one person has come forward. He suggests deaths in the USA post vaxx 200,000. Adverse events much much greater than the CDC VAERS. So if you take the jab(s) and still contract and transmit Covid and risk a serious adverse event or death due to the jab……
Have you a link please?
Epi… if you want to “find” anything of use do dump Google ASAP and any other browser that’s not customizable to your needs rather than the “free” providers.
I recommend this as a search engine: https://metager.org/
And go Brave on phone and laptop.
https://brave.com/
Though none of the above are as secure as using VPNs
If your search engine is Google driven it hides any WEF/WHO/B&MGF counter narrative as a matter of course. Same with YouTube owned by Google, they are more than useless for any informed alternate content… they bank on you being lazy and giving up.
STOP USING THEM
What you’re looking for:
https://rumble.com/user/stkirsch
The Myocarditis talk is key for any parent with teens, especially boys. Once heart damage is done its irreparable. For sure 1 in 138’ish is fair odds as such… however should you need to ever take that kind of risk for a “safe” product, especially when SARS Cov2 is no threat to all kids?
Steve Kirsch is on GAB
“Facts are as nothing to crowds, which function via a kind of collectivised imagination, operating off images and the slogans which evoke them”.
Now you know why Joe Public seems largely indifferent – and even hostile – to the reams of empirical evidence, logic and reasoned argument churned out by Daily Sceptic and others bold enough to challenge the official COVID narrative.
World-watcher John Walters says entire populations have been subjected to mass hypnosis – known in psychological circles as fomation – which has the UK and much of West under a Svengali-like trance. Unless we break the spell soon, he warns, things are going to get much, much worse.
https://johnwaters.substack.com/p/covid-totalitarianism-the-deification
The problem we have, and its a very big one, is that the more the stats show that the vaccines are useless at preventing infection and transmission, paradoxically the more our useless governments will double down on the boosters etc. Israel and now presumably Singapore, being very controlled societies are leading the way. That is our future.
They will never admit to mistakes, politicians never do.
And for us, the unvaxed, the risks of infection rise because of the vaxed. So far Delta is pretty tame as a virus, but there remains the real risk of ADE and a new virulent strain.
I can’t see any good way out of this. Even here in Florida the percentage of vaxed is very high the further south you go, with unvaxed more predominant in the panhandle area. And its not split across red/blue boundaries, the ‘red’ gulf coast has a high vaxed percentage.
A more positive spin is obtained by looking at the raw numbers in Will’s article. In my age group, 60-69 , all of 0.05% of unvaxed are getting hospitalised currently, its ‘noise’ not significant at any level.
Someone else already posted something similar to what I was going to say. Can’t seem to delete this comment. Please delete, mods.
After vaccinating over 85% of its population, Singapore has finally flattened the curve, but along the wrong axis.
The “high risk” were jabbed first because they were first in the queue to be got rid off..
“Ah.. take some of this madazalam madam.. it’ll help you sleep”..
I am very interested in the interpretation of these statistics, which seem to me to be very important for assessing the utility of the recent vaccination exercise.
My understanding is that a vaccine against an illness is aimed at providing complete protection against catching the disease. ‘Catching’ here does not mean never having virus particles (virions) in your body – that would be difficult. It means that any virions you encounter are handled effectively by your immune system, such that you never exhibit any illness symptoms, and do not spread them.
Where a virus can only exist inside a human body, such a vaccine can totally eradicate a virus, since it can never spread. So there would be no need for continuing vaccinations. Where a virus can exist elsewhere, in animals, for instance, such a vaccine can eradicate the illness, but not the virus, meaning that each new human will need at least one vaccination.
The initial public belief seems to have been that the Covid vaccination would be similar to the smallpox vaccine, in that it would eradicate the SARS-COV virus. This rapidly changed to a belief that it would be like a measles vaccine, where everybody needed one… Read more »
Stratifying by year of birth rather than by age might be useful to answer that question.
Indeed, the concept of a “vaccine” reducing disease severity is new as of this year. It doesn’t make sense to re-define vaccine this way because there’s already words for that (prophylactic and therapy). Yet that redefinition is being forced through. A simple way to prove this to people who are in denial about it is to show how the definition of vaccine in the Merriam-Webster dictionary was changed between January and February. At the start of the year the definition of vaccine was:
By February that had been memory-holed and a vaccine merely had to “stimulate the body’s immune response”. Creating immunity was no longer required. The timeline here is especially curious because in February governments and pharma firms were still claiming the vaccines would create immunity.
My suspicion is that the redefinition provides a work around against the alternative of trying to promote a novel drug at all. The use of the ‘emergency use authorisation’ is easier than trying to market any other brand new product, is it not? Money talks in the trade involved, after all.
The term “lower the seriousness”, or something almost the same was published on the NHS leaflets to us all who were identified as potential clients 8 months ago. “…two doses will reduce your chance of becoming seriously ill. We do not yet know whether it will stop you from catching and passing on the virus” – NHS March 2021.
In order to measure effectiveness you have to know if someone is infected.
How is it known if someone has covid?
You shove a sharp stick up their nose, of course. Do keep up!
NHS figures in its latest report show 7924 deaths in England in the under 60 age group across 2020 and 2021, from or with covid-19. In what world of total insanity would this level of deaths normally require this entire age cohort to receive an experimental gene inoculation?
The drop in effectiveness against death in the over 80s seems to be coinciding with the booster rollout. I wonder if PHE have included in their stats those who received a booster within the previous 14 days? I’m sure it’s just another one of those coincidences though…
It is a fascinating display of hypocrisy to see this claim being made by PHE and the ‘Full Fact’ scam :
“…this is “not the most appropriate method” to assess vaccine effectiveness as it is not adjusted for various confounders …”
It is the rationalists who have consistently pointed out dodgy statistical dealing from The Narrative proponents. Suddenly, the myth makers come over all prim and proper when the sauce doesn’t suit their taste.
Of course – the whole process is fundamentally flawed ever since the (admittedly loaded by industry involvement) proper testing was abandoned. And, of course, you cannot make up lost rigorous data by simple observation, which has confounding variable trip-wires all over the place. But we didn’t make the goose’s sauce. Suddenly the referee doesn’t have his back turned, and there is a squeal of objection when the rules of the game are applied.
To many of us, these findings are no surprise, confirming the absurdly low ARR that was there right from the start.
Actually, anyone with a smidgen of statistical instinct would question the ‘91%’ effectiveness figure for the 12-15 year olds, not the lower figures as an artefact. It all smells of ‘make it up… Read more »
Where has the scepticism of the Daily Sceptic gone? Talks about the invisible plague as if it were real. Talks about “tests” “infections” “cases” as if they were a real problem.
Indeed – you can pile these issues on top of the others.
“Vaccine effectiveness against serious disease and death continues to hold up well”
Really? When you consider two massive probable confounders – the increasing evolutionary mildness of the virus and better treatment?
And then step back and look at the more reliable data overview – the comparison of 2020 and 2021 in terms of all cause mortality. An increase – after a massive jabbing program of a massively effective vaccine???
Pull the other one.
Unfortunately any mention of absolute risk is likely to result in a blank look and the reply ‘but it’s proven to be 90% effective’
Yes. And that’s just if you’re talking to the average doctor 🙂
delete
Come DS, dare to say it. The data makes a mockery not of vaccine passports and mandates but of the vaccines themselves.
That is what minus 86% effectiveness means, surely…
Vaccine effectiveness is rapidly approaching parity with the chances of me taking one.
Must watch
Dr. Peter McCullough, MD: ‘We’re in the middle of a major biological catastrophe’ (odysee.com)
“Dr. Peter McCullough, MD: ‘We’re in the middle of a major biological catastrophe’”
Thanks for this. Couldn’t get links to work for me for some reason. Here’s one that did –
https://tinyurl.com/yfkc7u2s
This is excellent. Just watched to whole thing. Very highly recommend. McCullough is such a hero.
Thank you Will and all those commenting below the line. Some brilliant, insightful and interesting points. Lockdown Sceptics continues to massively help my sanity in a world gone completely nuts.
Keep fighting the good fight everyone. The truth can’t be hidden forever.
Yes, it’s an extraordinary level of informed and intelligent debate by you guys here.
You seem to have used the MSM method of dramatising facts with a deceptive headline. Just like when the beeb headlined 1 million deaths from Covid (worldwide, and no contextual meaning for that number). True of course but intended to alarm.
I am firmly against being vaccinated and have lost friends as a consequence, but looking at your figures, for me at 73 years and unvaccinated, although there is much less chance of being infected, if I am unfortunate enough to catch it – which is quite likely eventually – there is a much bigger chance of being hospitalised and/or dying (which could be embasrrasing given my stance). So, actually I would deduce from the figures that the “vaccine” is effective in that it claims to reduce hospitalisation and death. Howevever, no one knows what long term effects it will have. It was several years before Thalidomide was withdrawn and so far these concoctions have only been “approved” for less than 10 months. I remain anti-vaccine for the time being but will keep an open mind and continual risk assessment. I will always be anti-passport. It’s a disgusting idea!
“there is a much bigger chance of being hospitalised and/or dying”
Not if you consider absolute risk reduction. The difference is a small difference in an unlikely scenario.
There are approximately 15 million people in the UK over 60 years old. I don’t have NHS UK statistics, but I know that 36,059 people aged 60-79 have died of or with covid-19 across the entire pandemic in England. This is 0.24% of people aged 60-79 in two years. A slight adjustment is needed to account for the UK/England population difference, but it’s not massive.
“ I know that 36,059 people aged 60-79 have died of or with covid-19″
Wow!!! You know that???
You’ve done that number of autopsies?
Amazing! (even if your comment is actually irrelevant)
How long before these inconvenient PHE reports get nuked like the ZOE figures?The excuse will be “there are no longer enough unvaccinated people for us to include an accurate estimate of the unvaccinated cases, hospitalisations and deaths – so from now on we will only report on cases, hospitalisations & deaths regardless of vaccination status”.
I fear that elimination of the control group has been the policy for many months now. Advising people with existing natural immunity to get jabs, and trying to force children into getting jabs, were two major red flags for me.
So whats the point of vaccine passports then ?
With this knowledge there is absolutely no logical or scientific reason for the introduction of vaccine passports at all now.
Thats not just in Britain but also in France, Italy, Canada, Australia … in fact in every single country where covid passports have been introduced and under whatever fancy name they have given (in Lithuania they’re called ‘Opportunity Passes’) – there is no justifiable reason for them to be introduced … unless that is, there is an ulterior motive at play here – in which case its not the virus we should be concerned about.
Your post seems to imply a counter-scenario which I think I disagree with.
If vaccines were 100% effective and 100% safe, there would be no logical or scientific justification for vaccine passports in my view.
Where have you been for the past 19 months? Many believe that the ‘Vaxx Pass’ will be used to control people, and is a ‘platform’ onto which your information can be loaded.
For now it is an app in your smartphone, or a printout, to be shown at airports, harbours, or ‘venues’. I think it will soon take the form of a plastic card with a chip, to be shown to contactless readers. Now, here’s an idea – what if it’s used like a bonus card, so that in food shops food costs less to the Vaccinated?
I would have accused you a month or two ago of lunacy. I suspect that we will see it any time the next fortnight
If I were working for SAGE I’d suggest it be called the ‘Freedom Pass’. Catchy name. “Do your bit to beat Covid19” will be printed on the back.
Discounts at supermarkets, swimming pools, train tickets, petrol stations and National Trust properties.
And “Help keep everyone safe” – plus, of course, “Protect the NHS”.
And the National Trust will allow you to go round the outdoor one-way system the wrong way, spitting upon the unvaxxed as you go.
Ah.. your ‘opportunity’ to be enslaved.. mmmn.. I’ll pass thanks.. I never was an opportunist..
The side of the ‘vaccine effectiveness’ coin is the fact that deaths are running above average for the time of year pretty much everywhere across Europe, and have been all summer. And those deaths are not in the elderly, their death rates are normal. No the death rate is elevated among the under 65s, even down to the 20s and 30s. Now I wonder why that could be? What on earth could possibly have caused the death rate to spike suddenly among the normally healthy? /sarc
To be serious its is to my mind becoming increasingly apparent that the critics of the vaccines are being vindicated. The vaccines are not effective against infection, as we always said they wouldn’t be, indeed it appears from this data they are actively causing infection among the vaccinated (this could be some sort of ADE type reaction, again as predicted by the vaccine critics). And they are pretty obviously causing a spike in deaths from circulatory diseases (heart attacks, strokes etc) as those are up significantly, as are deaths in the young (as mentioned above).
The big question is – how bad must these figures become before even the medical authorities start to… Read more »
The other side of the vaccine coin I meant to say!
I would bet it’s got a lot to do with mask wearing. Prolonged shallow breathing will have a devastating effect on general health. So important for rehabilitating from illness.
I noted a conversation on this topic begin in some comments in the Independent – it took around two hours before the paper could censor and remove all the offending posts….
Try ever finding one now in the G******n. At first I was briefly amazed at the vitriol caused by my, admittedly anti-vax comments. I actually thought I could make a few think. Lol.
I was banned, sorry “moderated” long ago.
But seriously do comment where appropriate – if only for amusement purposes, but beware of “Dave” he’s a scientist you see..
Daily Sceptic needs to update its information about FullFact – it’s St James’s location at the same address as the Privy Council and the Institute of Government, it’s main funding from Luminate alias the Omidyar Foundation affiliated to the World Economic Forum.
The ‘Covid’ narrative, appears to be fading fast and the usual cold, flu and COPD’s are returning. It’s almost as if covid never really existed and it was something to bring in Health Segregation passports.
Surely Dan.. they wouldn’t have been so cynical would they.. ???
I presume that a competent health agency would be able to link the data to testing records and actually find out to what extent increasing natural immunity in the unvaccinated is driving this effect. I don’t think it was ever reasonable to expect VE in people over 80 to be close to the overall results (90-95%) from clinical trials. So a 50-60% reduction in hospitalization/death compared to an unvaccinated group with an ever increasing rate of natural immunity doesn’t seem to require us to believe anything is changing about the effect of the vaccine over time. It’s also important to understand that if the background rate of infections is higher and people move around and get exposed more then that can create a false impression that the vaccine doesn’t work as well. However effective a vaccine is, unless it is 100%, you will get infected in the end if you get exposed enough. The more exposures the less the difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated.
The VE for a just a positive test (or infection if you want to call it that) has never been presented by the manufacturers. But even if you assume that half of the unvaccinated have natural… Read more »