Two months ago Anthony Brookes, Professor of Genomics and Health Data Science at the University of Leicester, wrote an important piece for the Daily Sceptic in which he assembled the “Covid jigsaw pieces into a complete pandemic picture”.
To recap, this was his summary of his argument:
- A series of SARS-CoV-2 variants have arisen, many of which possessed a transient selective advantage that led to a wave of infection that peaked some three-to-four months later. Several such variants have spread globally, though different successful variants have arisen simultaneously in a number of countries. The result is a three-to-four month wave pattern per country, which is also apparent globally.
- Seasonality affects variant transmissibility. Colder seasons accelerate the growth and increase the size of waves, but the continually changing environment may also differentially affect the relative transmissibility of competing variants (i.e., negatively as well as positively), thereby helping to terminate previously dominant variants and promote the growth of new ones.
- Overall there is a minimal positive impact from quarantine policy, isolation requirements, Test and Trace regimes, social distancing, masking or other non-pharmaceutical interventions. Initially, these were the only tools in the tool-box of interventionist politicians and scientists. At best they slightly delayed the inevitable, but they also caused considerable collateral harms.
- Immunity created by SARS-CoV-2 infection, layered on top of pre-existing immunity due to cross-immunity to other coronaviruses, provides good protection against infection, severe disease/death, and being infectious. Immunity created by vaccination also helps protect against serious disease and death, but does little or nothing to provide protection against infection or being infectious (which completely negates the case for vaccine ID cards).
- Population immunity stems mainly from natural infections, with vaccines adding only slightly to this (and only in recent months). Population immunity is created by societal waves of infection and is somewhat variant-specific. An emerging new variant is able to infect (or re-infect) some fraction of individuals and this serves to top up and broaden the scope of our population immunity to also protect against the new variant.
- This empirical and data-driven understanding of the pandemic allows us to make predictions. Such predictions don’t look good for some of the U.K.’s new Green List countries. But in these and all other places the ongoing arms-race between viral mutations and growing human immunity will always eventually be won by the human immune system. The virus then becomes a low-level endemic pathogen in equilibrium with its human host species. If this were not the case all humans would have been wiped out by viruses eons ago!
In the piece he made some very specific predictions about what would happen over the following months, and we’re now in a position to see how close he got to the target. He wrote:
With an essentially complete Covid jigsaw picture now assembled using an empirical data-driven approach, we can offer up some testable predictions. The first is that current Delta waves unfolding in different countries will reach natural peaks around three-to-four months after this variant arrived in each location. For example, considering countries recently added to the U.K.’s Green List, we would expect: Slovenia, Slovakia and Romania (where Delta arrived little more than one month ago) will see their nascent summer waves grow further and peak in about two months’ time; Latvia (where Delta has only just arrived) will face a multi-month wave starting very soon; and Austria, Germany and Norway (where Delta has already been present for several months) will likely see their summer waves peak around the end of August. NPIs will do little to change this, and neither will vaccines (see Israel for evidence of this).
So the specific predictions were:
- Reported cases in Slovenia, Slovakia and Romania peaking around about now.
- Latvia to currently be on the up-slope.
- Germany, Austria and Norway to peak around the end of August.
Let’s have a look.
Latvia is currently on the up-slope, as predicted, while Slovenia peaked on September 18th, a little early but close enough. Slovakia and Romania haven’t yet peaked but presumably will soon; in any case their nascent summer waves have certainly grown as predicted.
Norway peaked on September 5th and Germany on September 4th, right on cue. Austria was a little late on September 15th, but not far off.
These are some of the most accurate predictions made by anyone in the pandemic to date, and underline the accuracy of the jigsaw pieces Prof Brookes has assembled to explain the inner dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic.
On noting the success of his predictions, Prof Brookes commented:
The basis for the growth and decline of waves of Covid infection now seems clear and predictable. But not by computer modelling! Instead, the main pre-requisite seems to be the emergence of a new variant that partially evades existing immunity against infection. The resulting wave then (re)infects about 10-15% of the population and thereby restores sufficient herd immunity to stop the wave growing. A degree of fading of population immunity, along with some mechanism(s) by which winters promote viral spread, can also strengthen the growth of a new variant wave – but these are ancillary phenomena and not main drivers.
The really great news is that Delta has now spread worldwide and been around for many months, without there being any evidence in any country of any major new variants emerging that would cause new waves to occur. It therefore looks increasingly likely that Delta-related variants, in practical terms, mark the end of the pandemic. Delta is, as expected, resolving into a low-level endemic pathogen. Its prevalence may rise and fall somewhat as the seasons change, but the overall Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) in populations where those who are vulnerable to severe illness (i.e., the old and those with comorbidities) have been vaccinated, is now tolerable and of the same order as that of influenza. Vaccination of all others (i.e., the young and the healthy) is no longer medically required or justified, given what we now know about the significant rate of vaccine harms, and the fact that vaccines at best only slightly delay rather than prevent infections.
Maybe ministers should be asking Prof. Brookes to advise them on the future course of the pandemic, rather than the perennially predictively-challenged Professor Neil Ferguson?
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Yes, but they ( probably ) won’t, because there is far too much to be gained from the “deadly virus” narrative for them/the PTB/their associates/handlers.
Thank you Professor Brookes for bringing some rational analysis and logical insight into this whole politicised and money-oriented debacle.
And thank you for confirming that my own immune system, which has taken thousands of years to develop and fine tune, is superior to the dubious manufactured immune system, delivered via a needle.
Sadly it will have no impact on the situation because it is rational and logical.
” . . .Maybe ministers should be asking Prof Brookes to advise them on the future course of the pandemic, rather than the perennially predictively-challenged Professor Neil Ferguson?”
Indeed they should, but the won’t, not least because Prof. Brookes’ assessment is not a helpful political tool, unlike the perennially predictively-challenged modelling of Prof. Ferguson – which is extremely helpful. Real evidence, real facts and real world data can, have and will continue to be overlooked and/or discarded in favour of hocus-pocus nonsense that supports the government’s narrative and agenda.
It’s a shame that he doesn’t have the ears of the directors of public health for Leicestershire and Leicester, never mind the national leaders.
Empirical data and knowledge always trumps computer models and ignorance.
Ah! Leicester, city that loves the Vaz family of political chicanery, and still has them embedded in the administration.
How can it not benefit the people of this Indian colony?
Uptick for the name alone. Luvvit!
That’s very kind of you.
My friends call me Biffo.
Two things we can be absolutely sure of; Ferguson won’t adopt these methods and the Govt won’t pay any attention to it at all. For the Govt this is evidence and evidence is basically garlic.
I hope he is right. But note that there is no sign of Romania or Slovakia peaking, Slovenia might have peaked but it is not a big downturn and could easily be a jink in a curve. Norway has peaked. Germany has flattened rather than peaked.
They’ll peak. Remember Florida was the bogeyman just 5 weeks ago. De Sanctis getting roasted. 60% down since.
Of course they will one day – the question is when. I have been waiting for the UK to peak for about 6 weeks and there is still no sign.
Me too. Anyone got any ideas why we in the UK seem to be on a plateau?
Because vaccine induced ADE is counted as Covid within 28 days and/or inbetween jabs
It really is that simple
But many other countries with higher vaccination rates have peaked (including Israel).
Yes, give credit where it is due. “The Science” and its busy promoters have spent endless time and huge amounts of your money relentlessly pursuing Project Fear. (Not only Covid, don’t forget the beneficial trace gas CO2 and their “Climate Crisis”, which will certainly send the UK off the cliff, pedal to the floor.)
You don’t expect them to let a bunch of unwanted facts to interupt their efforts (let alone to stop them filling their boots with your money)?
Because there’s been a lull in the pointless and obsessive testing of healthy people? Run out of volunteers, perhaps, or swabs, or the people working in the labs have all been ‘pinged’?
Bodies in the streets? Overwhelmed hospitals? Or just obsessive testing of healthy people?
This would be good news in a sane world. Sadly our msm and government are deranged and hooked on power underwritten by pushing fear on the populace
And watching with glee as their bank balances grow fatter.
People seem to have forgotten about the R rate and what it means. Below one, and an infection naturally declines, over one it spreads. If a vaccine doesn’t stop a person becoming infections then they will be contributing to the R-rate and infecting unvaccinated and vaccinated alike. However unlike the unvaccinated, they will be wandering about believing piously that they are no risk to anyone (because they are eligible for a passport, even if they don’t have one yet).
Thus the vaccinated are actually more of a risk since their symptoms will be fewer and less severe (so we are told), yet they are still able to spread “full-strength” Covid.
Meet Bob!
This article should be sent to every MP and particularly members of the Senedd in Wales.
https://www.writetothem.com/
Great minds think alike.
I’ve been in correspondence with one of the Plaid members of the Senedd, Llyr Gryffydd – only he and a Tory MS, Sam Rowlands, bothered to reply to me personally.
The Labour MSs just sent the identical blanket email sent from head office (probably derived from Starmer’s HQ, via Tony Blair’s, Bill Gates funded, Institute for Global Change).
Labour is now one of the Enemies (I voted for them in the previous two elections – never again).
So at 7am this morning, when I read this article, I popped the link off to Llyr. Every little helps, I hope.
I also sent him the link to the vaccine passport agenda on the Swiss Policy Research site – all excellent, cold-hard facts.
https://swprs.org/the-vaccine-passport-agenda/
Llyr’s response to my initial email was encouraging:
“Thank you for your email regarding the regulations to introduce a Covid Pass in Wales.
As I’m sure you’ll be aware by now, Plaid Cymru voted against the Welsh Government’s proposals.
We did so because we had concerns about the effectiveness and practical application of these particular measures. We asked for more robust evidence which the Government failed to provide.
This curtailing of liberties isn’t something to be taken lightly, and we will now have to work constructively to ensure that those freedoms are restored as quickly as possible.”
Sam Rowland’s reply to my concerns before the vote was:
“As Welsh Conservatives we are deeply concerned by the proposed introduction of COVID-19 passes. We believe these will inevitably exacerbate existing inequalities, creating a two-tier society for those who are not able to access the passes and those who cannot.”
Excellent work Mr Dee. I’ve contacted my representatives on a number of occasions with cited studies and clear, unambiguous, irrefutable data and at best you receive the boilerplate reply. Why are they simply blind to the facts, unless there’s another agenda. Have they not heard of Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Florida, Texas, Uttar Pradesh? You are quite correct when you state that Labour are the enemy now. They certainly are in Wales and have been for sometime. Why do people think Boris the Buffoon was elected other than he was the lesser of two evils. Keep fighting. Your efforts are appreciated!
My Conservative MS (Russell George) has emailed me twice this week promising that he will do everything he can against Covid passports – not a cut n paste job either.
I have been trying to change his view on masks (still required in Wales in many places) but I don’t think I’m succeeding. Shame as he’s an otherwise intelligent guy (for a politician!)
Hats off to you. Nicely done, keep it up! I have grandchildren in Merthyr, Oh how I worry for them and their futures living under the Drakeford tyranny.
Whilst I have no problem with the overall thrust of this piece (but let’s face it – making better predictions than the majority of models is easy-peasy), I do sigh at the use of the term ‘waves‘ when there haven’t been any phenomena deserving that name (‘ripple‘ – perhaps) – unless you resort to the other bit of abused vocabulary : ‘cases’.
And we’re really in trouble now, it’s undeniable since this graph proves it:
My modelling says this should be an exponential curve (which quickly becomes virtually a line, not a curve – something Ferguson and Whitty don’t understand! )
Really? OMG, we’re all doooomed!
I took on all the experts with an article published last November, stating that there was no health and safety risk to healthy young athletes from COVID.
A week after my article was published, the Big 10 and Pac 12 cancelled all sports. These conferences later rescinded this and allowed sports, although shortened seasons with 150-pages of silly safety protocols.
I’d just like to point out that my “science education” ended in 11th grade chemistry … but here I was challenging the findings of esteemed scientists and doctors on Medial Advisory Panels made up of experts from Stanford, Cal, the University of Michigan, Northwestern, etc.
Here’s what I wrote then:
“By framing the “COVID debate” largely in terms of “positive cases,” the media has created the narrative that all of us are at grave risk of becoming sick or dying when this is nowhere close to the truth.
“In short, the “safety” of athletes will not be jeopardized if sports seasons are allowed to continue this fall. The worst-case scenario is that a tiny percentage of athletes may develop “flu-like” symptoms for a week or so. However, as 15 to 45 million Americans develop an “influenza-like illness” every year, this is a risk that has always existed – without canceling sports …”
https://uncoverdc.com/2020/07/31/covid-19-poses-virtually-no-health-risk-to-athletes/
P.S. Nineteen months after the official beginning of the pandemic, no college or professional athlete has died of COVID. No high school athletes either. The mortality risk from COVID for healthy athletes is thus 0 in XX million (however many athletes play organized sports around the world).
So why do they need to be vaccinated?
Anyway, it’s nice when you write an article 15 months ago and wouldn’t change a word today.
Widespread use of Merck’s molnupiravir will probably screw with this hopeful outcome since trials already show multiple mutations at high rates. Should these become viable….
see Trialsitenews ‘Is Molnupiravir A Global Catastrophic Threat?’
Oh you guys must be geniuses, right?
The C19 doesn’t exist, but you accurately predicted how “variants” would behave globally…wow, geniuses.
People with integrity like Dr Mike Yeadon said time and time again that VARIANTS ARE NEVER DANGEROUS because they are 90% something similar to the virus, that variants NEVER ESCAPE IMMUNITY.
I have no doubt in my mind that the Daily Sceptic exists to misinform people… some people have call this type of behaviour ‘controlled opposition’, the act of pretending to be on the other side of something, and in that position half truths are promoted, truths mixed with lies…
You guys are so dishonest!!!
People should not be forced to have the vaccine and are perfecty free to deny C19’s existence if they wish. However, conspiracy theorists have made efforts to challenge the wider establishment madness on Covid all the more difficult to overcome.
That’s Professor Brookes’s research grant money stopped then.
Steve Kirsch, inventor of the optical mouse has just released a paper, after intensive research, suggesting the number of deaths and serious adverse events post vaxx, CDC VAERS, are seriously being undercounted in the USA. Each day more and more world scientists, data analysts, medics, and other brilliant minds are giving us clear information. How long will governments choose to ignore this data?
I know no one, or even of anyone who has died of COVID. FACT.
I know a few who have had symptoms similar to and ranging from a medium to a bad cold, man flu, and even nasty proper flu. FACT
I do however know quite a few who have suffered varying degrees of adverse events from the stab, ranging from a friend who suffered from facial paralysis (Bells Palsy) 4 weeks after his first stab (coincidence?) to someone who I strongly suspect died because of the stab. A fit young man who had a ‘heart attack‘ or ‘seizure’ summiting a lowlands mountain in Scotland. FACT.
Then add into the equation as suggested, officially and seriously undercounted VAERS, Yellow Card, etc. data for deaths and serious adverse events.
No need to call Sherlock Holmes in to work out that something odd is happening here.
But our inglorious leaders continue to press their hands over their ears and sing lalalala.
Fxcking disgraceful!
My head has become a percussion tool. It’s really starting to hurt. I don’t think I’m alone.
It’s the vaccine that’s killing people.
Not the common cold they now call Covid.
Because governments need more and more deaths to justify their control freakery. Un-vaxxed people don’t die, but they will if government thugs force them to get vaxxed.
The ’empirical data-driven approach’ assumes there is a test to detect the Delta variant, or any variant for that matter, but no test exists. This is just more of the same BS tbh.
Why isn’t this report talking about the elephant in the room that deaths ‘from’ Covid in August and September 2021 (pre vaccine) are now 12 times higher in the same unseasonal period of 2021 (post vaccine)!!??
It is clear that the Delta Variant ‘is’ the vaccine itself, wreaking illness and death amongst the vaccinated.
The data from Government sources PHE, ONS & MHRA proves without doubt this to be the case and yet not talked about in this article.
Are we talking bodies in the streets, or dubious ‘positive test’ numbers?
I’ve lived through winter colds and ‘flu since birth, and have their memory recorded in my immune system, and thus my DNA, because that’s how the human body works. Test me and the government will trumpet that I’m ‘infected’ and a public danger, so that they can scare the Branch Covidians into their cellars.
its all a government scamdemic.
Once again, may I introduce BOB? He’s a badass. Also his friend Mr. NewNorm.
If Branch Covidians curl up and die when they see me hale, hearty and un-vaxxed, then I say Good riddance to them all.
But they won’t be dying of Covid – they’ll just be dying of fright.
NewNorman
And once more, may I introduce BOB? He’s a badass. Also his friend Mr. NewNorm.
Oops, somehow put it in twice.
If only it worked on all politicians, especially Tories.
Would Prof Brookes comment on the emerging situation here in New Zealand? An interesting and perhaps unique case study. As most sceptics may know our Prime Minister has received international recognition for her Zero Covid response. But of course it is not how you start a marathon but how you finish that matters and perhaps that is starting to look like a the back of the field. Many of us in NZ of course (but censored so you would never know we exist) have always understood Zero Covid was unicorn thinking and would have serious multi-level societal impacts whilst only ever delaying the inevitable. And arguably making it worse when the inevitable arrived with compromised immune systems and an 18-months-weary-of-Covid-and-lockdowns population suffering a multitude of stresses. We appear to be at the beginning of our first true wave, with government still desperately trying to keep a lid on the exploding cases by ineffective and draconian measures including stringent lockdowns, mandated masks, internal borders, widespread testing of healthy people resulting in the detention in a state facility of those with a positive PCR test. Government are very unclear about whether they have ditched zero covid or whether that is still on the cards. We have naive medical sector with no clue how to treat Covid, woefully inadequate health system (ICU beds/100,000 just 4.6) and no movement in improving that since the being of Covid, and no population health programmes for even such simple things as vitamin D supplementation. We are desperately injecting Pfizer into the middle of this case surge (possibly much higher than the reported figures as there are plenty of us that avoid being contact traced and do not submit to testing). Is it possible the ex-poster-child for Covid 19 response could be responsible for driving a new variant?
Any chance of NOT calling this a pandemic when there is no such thing? This is rebranded Flu no question. The overall excess deaths are minimal and continuing to call it a pandemic is just playing along with “their” little game. Please just STOP IT!!
Yes. Spot on. This, along with the word ‘cases’ are real triggers for me. As you say, it’s the enemy’s language, newspeak, and we must NOT play along.
The ’empirical data-driven approach’ assumes there is a test to detect the Delta variant, or any variant for that matter, but no test exists. This is just more of the same BS tbh.
Why isn’t this report talking about the elephant in the room that deaths ‘from’ Covid in August and September 2021 (pre vaccine) are now 12 times higher in the same unseasonal period of 2021 (post vaccine)!!??
It is clear that the Delta Variant ‘is’ the vaccine itself, wreaking illness and death amongst the vaccinated.
The data from Government sources PHE, ONS & MHRA proves without doubt this to be the case and yet not talked about in this article.
Better not let Ewloe see this….
It is interesting to come back to this two weeks later. I can only add one chart per comment so I will do this in two comments.
First.
Latvia is currently on the up-slope, as predicted, while Slovenia peaked on September 18th, a little early but close enough. Slovakia and Romania haven’t yet peaked but presumably will soon;
What actually happened.
Slovenia’s “peak” turned out to be an illusion. Slovakia and Romania carry on growing. At least he got Latvia right.
Second.
Norway peaked on September 5th and Germany on September 4th, right on cue. Austria was a little late on September 15th, but not far off.
Germany’s and Austria’s “peaks” turned out to be an illusion. He seems to have got Norway right.
The fact is that no one has much luck predicting how this virus will turn out.