Guido Fawkes reminds us today that over 1,200 so-called experts signed ‘the Declaration’ – cooked up by the same people behind the John Snow Memorandum – warning of the terrible effect easing coronavirus restrictions on July 19th would have. The Declaration originally took the form of a letter in the Lancet, published on July 7th, in which 120 self-described ‘scientists’, many of them members of Independent SAGE, described ‘Freedom Day’ as “dangerous and premature”. They cited the SAGE modelling showing there would be 100,000 new Covid cases a day if the Government went ahead with its plans and set out the dire consequences for Britain and the rest of the world. “We believe the Government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment, and we call on it to pause plans to abandon mitigations on July 19th, 2021,” they wrote.
Two weeks on from ‘Freedom Day’, their predictions aren’t holding up terribly well.
According to Public Health England, the number of new daily cases fell to 21,691 today, another five-week low. So the 1,200 signatories of the Declaration exaggerated the number of daily cases that would follow ‘Freedom Day’ by 500%.
The Lancet letter also predicted that hospital admissions would soar as a result of Boris’s recklessness:
The link between cases and hospital admissions has not been broken, and rising case numbers will inevitably lead to increased hospital admissions, applying further pressure at a time when millions of people are waiting for medical procedures and routine care.
Perhaps they should have thought twice before inserting that word “inevitably” because the latest data shows hospital admissions falling. “Another 731 admissions were recorded by officials on July 30th, the latest date available – down 15% on the week before,” reports MailOnline.
And it wasn’t just these 1,200 ‘experts’ who were sounding the alarm. Let’s not forget that Keir Starmer also described Boris’s plan to ease restrictions as “reckless”.
And, of course, our old friend Neil Ferguson said on July 18th that it was “almost inevitable” that daily cases would climb to 100,000 a day if Boris went ahead with the unlocking the following day and added that “the real question” was whether they would reach 200,000 a day or more and warned of a “significant burden on the healthcare system”. Out by 1000% – which is actually pretty modest by Ferguson’s standards.
As Guido Fawkes says: “Guido can’t remember a time 1,200 so-called experts were proven so wrong in one fell swoop…”
Boris’s decision to go ahead with ‘Freedom Day’ is the first time I can think of in the past 16 months when he’s stuck to his guns in the face of wildly apocalyptic claims from various ‘experts’ about the consequences of “letting it rip” (their phrase for giving us our freedoms back). On every previous occasion, because he’s done exactly as these gloomsters have asked, they haven’t been proved wrong. Admittedly, locking down three times hasn’t stopped the U.K. from having one of the worst Covid death tolls in Europe, and Sweden’s excess deaths in 2020 were lower than ours in spite of not locking down. But the crystal ball gazers have always been able to argue that things would have been so much worse if we hadn’t locked down. Yet this time – finally – Boris ignored their doom-mongering and, as a result, they have been proved spectacularly – and humiliatingly – wrong.
Will this experience stiffen Boris’s backbone the next time he’s prevailed upon by the Government’s scientific advisers, sundry public health experts and the chin-wobblers in the Cabinet to lock down again, which really is inevitable? We can but hope.
Discussion
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“Guido can’t remember a time 1,200 so-called experts were proven so wrong in one fell swoop…”
Simple. It’s Groupthink meets the Peter Principle. There are many ‘cases’ of this worldwide.
SIR Keir Starmer who was head of the Crown Prosecution Service when the decision was made to NOT INVESTIGATE SIR Jimmy Savile. See how this game works?
The same Sir Keir Starmer whose ‘believe the victim’ diktat to the CPS and police has resulted in the wrongful prosecution of hundreds, if not thousands, of innocent men for entirely false accusations of rape or serious sexual assault.
Starmer does talk some shite, doesn’t he.
The ‘Johnson Variant’ is under tight control and doing just what it is intended to do. The Starmer Variant, however, has achieved nothing more than the political equivalent of a runny nose.
Its surprising there’s not more of a push back, particularly from NHS workers for whom mandatory jabs would be a good guess in the near future.
We never see them confronted with their nonsense either. We all know Ferguson’s track record but never hear him even asked to try to justify it
That’s because those who might usually ask the searching questions are taking the same Bill and Melinda shilling as Imperial College.
As always, this site is being too polite by half. Because these quacks have clearly lost all credibility and are dangerously fanning unwarranted fear and panic in the population, there should be calls for them to be banned from social and public media. They are a danger to public health.
Why? Because they are ‘Experts’
An ‘Ex’ is a has been and a ‘spurt’ is a drip under pressure
I actually believe that Prof Pantsdown and his 1199 mates are the unethical experimenters. These self important twats need public shaming !
Sadly, or not, Boris has nothing to do with the decision making. We all know that.
I agree, but he’ll still walk away with his share of the spoils
The ONLY reason the Cowardly Lion allowed a scaled-down version of Freedom Day to go ahead on 19 July was the anticipated political backlash if he’d U-turned again. So what we got was Freedom Day with “guidance” that effectively negated it.
The Cowardly Lion deserves no credit whatsoever for the destruction he has overseen. His Party needs a new logo – a blue Swastika.
National
Health
Socialists!
NHS
it will not stop Johnson relying on the same so called scientists going forwards, and it won’t stop the MSM from using them for interviews. The reason being is to do otherwise would be to admit they made massive errors of judgement, and that with all the cost in deaths, illnesses and the economy is tantamount to admitting guilt. So instead they will carry on with an insoucience of nothing to see here, and continue with the Emperor’s new clothes fabrication, and the majority of people will happily go along with it. Why? because to not do so the Public would also have to admit they have been taken for fools and no one likes to do that.
So in September testing will be ramped up again, as the children are back at school and the charade will continue, I mean all those school vaccinators and nurses being employed they have to have something to do,
They’ve been “re-Lied” on since Fergusson’s debacle of vCJD model predicted 150,000 deaths and we got 123 detected
Another one wrong….
Prof. Friston of Independent Sage said:
“I estimate the impact of the [Euro2020] semi-final as generating 494,090 cases over a month or an excess incidence of 18,300 new cases per day. This is about half of the current notification rates of 32,000 new cases per day,”
https://inews.co.uk/news/science/englands-euro-2020-success-could-lead-to-a-million-extra-covid-infections-1094382
Is it time to gloat yet? 🙂
I don’t think Johnson ultimately wants to return any freedoms – he is a full-blown climate alarmist now, and this will dove-tail into the Re-set and the 4th industrial revolution process, keeping all of his pals at WEF, Gates and the Global corporations happy. The biosecurity state is still on course and the lies will perhaps take too long to fully expose, bringing us so close to the black hole of technocracy…
Greenism is just part of the enormous welfare state for billionaires.
One to watch perhaps? “ The fight for freedom is a worldwide effort, and WE CAN WIN!” (Patrick King in Alberta): https://rumble.com/vkorz0-freedom-fighter-court-victory-ends-masking-shots-quarantine-in-alberta.html
Don’t worry their evil plans will continue – sorry to say.
It’s a disgrace that such an incompetent as Neil Ferguson has been allowed to destroy the farming sector, the small business sector and even the might of the Tory Party without any redress. This man obviously has a role to play in the Klaus Schwabb Great Reset and is protected. As for the communist heavy SAGE, we have yet another dangerous group allowed to hold sway by a careless and deceitful Prime Minister. Theresa May had a number of communist advisers and even used a communist to secretly create the EU withdrawal Agreement that should have been scrapped as soon as Johnson came to power.
So much for a true blue patriotic party……
I resigned from that disgusting party last April as soon as I smelt an extremely large and particularly pongy rat 🐀.
IT’S NOT INCOMPETENCE THEY ARE DOING THIS SHIT DELIBERATELY. Ferguson gets these gigs because he is prepared to put his name to this bullshit to achieve the pre-determined desired outcome. He is an INSIDER working for CRIMINALS
IT’S NOT INCOMPETENCE THEY ARE DOING THIS CRAP DELIBERATELY. Ferguson gets these gigs because he is prepared to put his name to this bullshit to achieve the pre-determined desired outcome. He is an INSIDER working for CRIMINALS
The reason Johnson didn’t lift restrictions last summer, is because they wanted to try and precipitate a large winter surge, to correspond with the beginning of the vaccination program, and hide the tens of thousands who were dropping dead after the jabs. The first lockdown did, sort of “work”, in suppressing the virus after it had already peaked naturally but all that achieved was more vulnerable people in the winter. Vallance knew this would happen:
“If you completely locked down absolutely everything, probably for a period of four months or more then you would suppress this virus,” he told Sky News.
“All of the evidence from previous epidemics suggests that when you do that and then you release it, it all comes back again.
“The other part of this is to make sure that we don’t end up with a sudden peak again in the winter which is even larger which causes even more problems.
“So we want to suppress it, not get rid of it completely which you can’t do anyway, not suppress it so we get the second peak and also allow enough of us who are going to get mild illness to become immune to this to… Read more »
Interesting that Toby says we got our freedoms back on July 19th. As far as I’m aware, people are still supposed to isolate if someone they’ve been in contact with tests positive, and I’m still sweating on whether I’ll be “allowed” to use the football season ticket I’ve paid £100s for, due to the fact that I’ve chosen not to be vaccinated.
Vaccine passports, travel restrictions, mass vaccination, quarantine of the healthy, mass testing, masks everywhere still, T&T. All part of lockdown. Not over until all of this is swept away AND the government and SAGE admit it was a huge mistake. Millions of people scared needlessly, the rest of their lives blighted.
You’re absolutely right Julian – I used the two examples purely to make a point. What’s happening here is what’s called “ratcheting” – the government introduces an excessive policy which it later eases up on. People believe the government has done them a favour, totally forgetting that what they have now is less than what they originally had. I’ve been amazed at the number of people who were totally opposed to mandatory vaccination 18 months ago; accepting of it “but only for international travel” 9 months ago and now believe its “probably necessary for major events so we can get back to normal”
Chocolate Rations are UP! springs to mind.
👍
Politicians have lost any shred of credibility they might have ever had. They are in a dunces race to the bottom, whacking each other in the back of the head as they rush past each other to be the jackass in chief.
“Dangerous and unethical experiment”?!! Dear oh dear. I thought that that was what has been happening since 23/03/20!
You still really think none of this is Johnson’s doing, don’t you, Toby. That he’s doing it unwillingly?
You’re off your head, mate. Either that, or you’re really desperate for that gong.
This will no more stiffen the backbone of Kim Jong Johnson than it will result in the Jimi Hendrix Experience co-headlining with Motorhead,
Unlike the backbone of Kim Jong Johnson, Motorhead and the Jimi Hendrix Experience used to exist, however.
Like it actually matters. They’ve been wide of the mark for 18 months and yet Toby thinks this time it matters.
Generally, each covid infectious wave has declined to near zero within about 6-8 weeks of the peak.
The question is will we see this pattern now?
If we do it will be somewhat reassuring — it’ll mean that short term immunity in the population is working.
If we don’t it’ll be worrying — it’ll mean that some in the population have impaired immunity that is allowing the disease to remain at elevated levels. And then you might wonder which large group of people in the country have had their immune systems mucked about with over the last 6 months or so.
If cases don’t drop to zero the broad level that they do drop to will likely give an indication as to the trouble we’ll be in next winter (higher=worse).
Yawn……..
Sorry to point out the 1200 ‘scientists’ have successfully signalled their virtue and compassion (not like us lot……). Science – and the body count – is not the point.
Exactly
They may be experts, but being an expert doesn’t stop you from lying
Could you clarify?
“Will this experience stiffen Boris’s backbone”
What backbone? That’s a myth as big as Covid.
Meanwhile it doesn’t take any particular expertise, just common sense and reasonable intelligence and experience, to see what the real policy issues are:
Tucker: The mainstream media’s job is to defend the ruling class
“Nine people died of the virus and they’re shutting down Australia, and they’re using the military to do it. Police helicopters are clearing people off the beach, is there scientific justification for this? No, but they’re doing it anyway:
Australian Police Use Chopper To Clear Beach: “Will everyone congregating in Gordon’s bay move on, the local police have been notified, anyone breaking the public health order will be issued a fine.”
The Anglosphere committing suicide collectively. Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the United States, Great Britain, what do they have in common? They speak the same language and have the same culture and all of them are allowing COVID to defeat them.
In Australia, people aren’t allowed out on the beaches, and they’re not allowed to ask why, either.
We know that because Sky News Australia — which has the same owners as this channel — has just been banned on YouTube in Australia. Why is that? Sky News Australia reported that outdoor mask mandates and… Read more »
We have done precious little to stand up against the advance of the authoritarian state for decades. We have meekly accepted surveillance cameras in the streets, speed cameras and law changes to allow their use on an industrial scale, the requirement for people to incriminate themselves and their spouses, ever more police powers, the emasculation of parliament and the judiciary, and countless pettifogging laws and regulations enforced by zealous local councils.
Public life has been dumbed down so, with some honourable exceptions like Big Brother Watch, there is no credible opposition to the authoritarian state. There is certainly none in parliament.
There is no reason to believe that the situation is not going to get worse. It is all being driven by international groupthink so anything started in a country like the USA is likely to be copied here, not rejected. And there is every reason to expect a frighteningly compliant population to knuckle down and accept it with barely a wimper.
Humans like authority and order, generally. The liberal, tolerant culture and state is a rare exception, and one that takes centuries to build but can be swept away as we’ve seen in a generation.
While, as you say, science is not ‘settled’, in this case there is pretty strong evidence that masks and the like don’t make any difference. The way it’s gone now though is that it’s stated as an “accepted fact” that they work, without presenting any evidence, and anyone presenting evidence to the contrary is being shut down. And only a minority seem to recorgnise just how dangerous this is.
“Admittedly, locking down three times hasn’t stopped the U.K. from having one of the worst Covid death tolls in Europe”.
Is this true Toby? I didn’t think we’d had that much excess mortality? I just don’t think that most other countries are as sadistically obsessed with trying to attribute every single death to covid as the UK is.
The increase in all cause mortality in the UK was higher than some countries in Europe and lower than others
How much of that was COVID and how mulch was medical mismanagement is debatable
The data on COVID are deliberately compromised everywhere
As far as the proportion of the deaths that were due
fluCovid, who cares? Viruses are a fact of life and their function is to clear out the very old and the very sick and the very weak and so on.While Toby may be a sceptic, he feeds on the gravy train and the last thing he wants to do is to be thrown off it for not having a valid ticket.
Our post-truth PM is leading us to post-freedom By Mark Pickles
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/our-post-truth-pm-is-leading-us-to-post-freedom/
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It’s a bit of an exaggeration to say that the PM stuck to his guns over freedom day. He caved in on so much of what the government originally said that it would (oh so generously) give back. The time has long passed since there was a glimmer of courageous leadership from Mr Johnson.
In my view it goes way beyond a lack of leadership
Any possible shred of credit one might have given him was for me destroyed when he went full on crazy in bullying the young into taking the vaccine
There is no going back from that
Peking Piffle.