In light of yesterday’s announcement about vaccine passports at the Downing Street press briefing, I’m reposting this original piece by Dr. David Livermore, Professor of Medical Microbiology at the University of East Anglia, a member of HART, and a contributor to Collateral Global. David isn’t opposed to immigration officers demanding to see evidence that you’ve been double jabbed as a condition of entering their country. But he does draw the line at internal use of vaccine passports – as a condition of attending a pop concert, for instance. He’s done a back-of-the-envelope calculation and concluded that admitting the unvaccinated, who will soon make up no more than 10% of the population, won’t pose a major risk and in any event will be outnumbered by the vaccinated who can still transmit the disease.
Suppose a concert is attended by 1,000 people, 900 vaccinated and 100 unvaccinated, which is about the current split. Assume also that vaccines confer around 80% protection – 95% for Pfizer and Moderna and 63-76% for AZ, and that 20% of the unvaccinated are immune through prior infection.
On that basis, the audience will include 80 unvaccinated ‘vulnerables’ and 180 potential vaccine failures. In other words, unvaccinated ‘hazards’ are outnumbered 2:1 by the vaccinated ‘hazards’. ZOE app data, showing that infections in the (large) vaccinated population are beginning to outnumber those in the (small and diminishing) unvaccinated population illustrate how, nationally, we are on track to reach such ratios.
In these circumstances, excluding the unvaccinated won’t dramatically alter the risk to the audience. Rather, the good news is that 740 of the 1000 attendees ([80% x 900]+[20% x 100]) are protected by successful vaccination or prior infection and this proportion, replicated across the population outside, should give sufficient herd immunity to prevent the virus regaining traction. Moreover, it’s generally accepted that vaccination gives better than 80% protection against severe infection, meaning that the vaccinated vulnerables aren’t at much risk.
As for the 80 unvaccinated vulnerables, have we not reached the point where it is their business if they choose to hazard more severe infection? They may also smoke or drink excessively. Or, despite limited mountaineering experience, join a commercial climb of Mt Everest, as promoted by this Everest Expedition service, whose blurb includes the wonderful encouragement: “If you want to experience what it feels like to be on the highest point on the planet and have strong economic background to compensate for your old age and your fear of risks, you can sign up for the VVIP Mount Everest Expedition Service.”
The civil rights case against vaccine passports is well-known. But the statistical case – showing that they’d do very little to reduce transmission – deserves a wider audience. Worth reading in full.
Stop Press: Nightclub owners are furious with the Government about vaccine passports, according to MailOnline.
Stop Press 2: Professor Livermore has been in touch to point out how bonkers yesterday’s announcement was in light of the SAGE modelling.
Announcing – on the day that nightclubs re-open – that passports will be required two-and-a-half months hence is bizarre, however one looks at it. If they think nightclubs are such a hazard, why allow 2.5 month opening without controls? All SAGE’s modelling (below) indicates peak infections will come long before then and, for once – given that the Delta variant is clearly able to spread in summer – I think they are likely right.
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“We just do the thinking outside the box,” said a government spokesperson. “Responsibility for the decision rests with the bigoted, superstitious population we poll, then the whipped, facistic MPs.”
“Harder, faster,” droned Keir Starmer, nasally.
“We know from the evidence it makes sense,” said Herr Doktor Vitty, Diktator Guardian of The Science (UK variant).
“It’s just social responsibility,” said Communist psychology professor, Susan Michie.
“It’s for the greater good,” said Mrs Mengele, Blackpool B&B owner, and added it to her list:
No blacks
No Irish
No Jews
No gays
No transsexuals
No HIV
No unvaccinated
case
We Have To Make Mandatory Jab Passports Politically Impossible To Implement & New Petition
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYICpHm1VNA
Outlaw Jab Passport Petition petition parliament uk petiti…
Contact MP Link 1 : writetothem com
Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow anti lockdown freedom lovers, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.
Join our Stand in the Park – Bracknell – Telegram Group
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Home Schooling – Ex-Primary School Teacher on Resistance GB YouTube Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ5oS2ejye0
https://www.hopesussex.co.uk/our-mission
This is still a massive overstatement of the efficacy of ‘vaccines’.
The only putative reason for them is that they possibly reduce the severity of SARS infection – but, obviously are no guarantee against infection or transmission. In fact, the false sense of security may make the vaccinated the more risky section of the population.
Even the ‘reduced severity’ observation may well be (contrary to the variant myth) a result of the normal progress of virus mutation.
How did the human species survive so long without vaccines
Exactly, if using those percentages as a guide to how well ‘vaccines’ work produces little evidence that vaccine passports are a good idea then if actual percentages are much lower it weakens case even more.
PHE document I linked to on the other thread has delta at 1/10 CFR as alpha
its a summer cold
Yes it is, overwhelming evidence.
Which makes it even more worrying that most people don’t even want to know this. They are so captured by the psyop that they just believe whatever they are fed now. We, the unvaxed, are a very real threat to their present mental state, its exactly where Nazi Germany got to in the 30s. Most people will not ‘see’ even when its right in front of their eyes, because they dare not.
To get populations here has not just taken 18 months, but several decades of pre-nuturing. Society has been primed for this.
The next stage is some physical identification of vaxed/unvaxed status. Then we are dead, possibly quite literally, at the hands of our fellow citizens, the government will not have to lay a finger on us directly.
Fine by me. Frankly, I would rather be dead than have to live in the type of society we are creating.
And a massive understatement of natural immunity through infection. This post assumes 20%, but I thought the numbers were closer to 60%.
But the numbers do serve to show that even if vaccines work better than they actually do, and when fewer people than normal have natural immunity, the numbers still stack up to say that this is a non issue. If we start using real number, it disappears entirely.
Even the performance of the vaccines against original variant wasn’t 80% protective against infection.
It was barely 50% protective against infection for Kent variant.
Data from Israel suggests 20% or lower protection against India variant.
It is also clear that the direction of travel is in one direction, vaccine escape, and that this escape is progressing rapidly (and what do you expect with an ineffective vaccine against a highly mutable target protein delivered during an epidemic).
There is also protection against transmission — far too little work has been done on this given its importance, however indications are that there is also little protection offered by the vaccines against onward transmission upon infection.
It would be nice if the government would publish far more data on the performance of the vaccines in the current wave — but, of course, they’re opposed to publication of data that doesn’t support their policies.
There are hints in the data we do have of increased asymptomatic infection in the vaccinated, leading to increased risks of population wide infection and transmission.
Science doesn’t support the use of vaccine passports. Indeed, science is currently suggesting that the vaccinated should have more restrictions than the unvaccinated (although I’d accept more data is required about this). Vaccine passports are entirely a product of the political classes wanting more power…
.. Well, and the introduction of international ID via the back-door.
Tyrants We’re At War.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8uDjO-qkp8
Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow anti lockdown freedom lovers, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.
Join our Stand in the Park – Bracknell – Telegram Group
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Home Education – Ex-Primary School Teacher on Resistance GB YouTube Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ5oS2ejye0
https://www.hopesussex.co.uk/our-mission
I don’t think we need to go beyond the civil rights case. If we do, we disappear down rabbit holes.
If you really want to go beyond civil rights, stop at: Covid was not exceptional and exceptional measures were not called for in reaction to it.
Anyway, I don’t think anyone who supports futile, unscientific international travel restrictions has any place being given space on the DS site or in the HART group.
This is a rehash of the piece we had the other day, that was rightly rubbished by almost everyone BTL.
And remember the original rabbit hole…. This whole saga has originated from man-made virus sequences and the pursuit of profit. Then some arse released it, and the consequences were weaponised for even more profit. Forget tagging the entire ruddy population, put all this effort into hunting down those responsible for creating and releasing the bioweapon. That is the part of the story that isn’t yet understood by the vast majority of the population. Once they realise they’ve been a target, and then been further attacked by their own government, they might get rather cross.
This 100%.
There are probably lots of ways we could split society and have different levels of access to various amenities
I would start my banning lawmakwers from anywhere where they have themselves instigated different levels of access for different ‘types’ of people
Considering that the data coming from Israel is showing that the Pfizer “vaccine” is pretty much useless at prevention of transmission, I am not sure of the usefulness of this “back of an envelope” calculation. The Israel data makes the maths somewhat simpler (any percentage of fuckall equals fuckall).
This made me smile. Thanks!
As well as useless, they are all highly dangerous. Those pushing this shit clearly belong in jail.
Please note what the Government sneaked through on its website yesterday that went unreported
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/plans-for-governing-body-to-make-digital-identities-as-trusted-as-passports
I.D Is well underway folks
”Just as the government is against making digital identities compulsary”, yeah just like not making ‘vaccinations’ not compulsary, just outsource the compulsion.
Wonder how long these will take to appear. I’ve never seen federal/national governments move as fast as they have in the past 17 months.
Curious. The Australian Government started the same schtick not long ago.
What will happen to people who cannot have the ‘vaccine’ for medical reasons?
What do you think happens to people in totalitarian countries who don’t obey?
The future is bleak. Heil Johnson!
They are meant to rather soon, just like the rest of us.
There will be exemptions, I am sure. But that’s not the point. It’s wrong on principle, and has no basis in science. Almost any extraordinary measure to do with covid should be 100% opposed as a default, as covid was not extraordinary.
Yes, if we genuinely were facing a killer plague which was likely to wipe out the whole of humanity then I could maybe see a justification for these restrictions. Instead, these have all been imposed for a virus marginally worse than flu which only kills people who are on the verge of dying anyway.
And you only have to look at the crowds…. on protests, in clubs and matches, on beaches and on the streets generally in good weather, and the children, to understand that people en masse are simply not scared of any killer plague out there. They KNOW the truth, deep down!
Many do, but many are genuinely scared I suspect. Anecdotally I know plenty of people, mostly young, fit and healthy, who are delaying a return to normal life until they are double jabbed
But I would surmise most are doing it as a ‘precautionary measure’ and/or ‘to get their freedoms back’ but not to protect themselves from sure and certain death.
No, plenty I know are genuinely scared.
Same here. I have spoken to healthy people in their 20s who genuinely believe they will die of ‘Covid’ if they don’t get their magic potion.
You don’t see the brain-dead, who are still sheltering at home. Johnson’s evil government has to be the worst of all time.
Absolutely.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-57888460
Covid-19: India excess deaths cross four million, says study
which would be about 0.2% – similar to flu and the PHE estimate of delta CFR (IFR will be far lower)
of course many of those deaths will be due to lockdown
that article is full of waffle and not much fact – I guess that’s to be expected from fear-porn central.
naturally no mention that attempting to lockdown a population where a large percentage of people are only just surviving day to day is going to end up with a good number of them starving to death.
The graph they don’t show.
Fuck that. Requiring Covid passports for international travel was a conditioning exercise for introducing them at home. GTFO here with this mealy-mouthed bullshit.
NO NO NO NO!
It’s not about the ‘only 10%’ not complying so it’s not worth bothering with. It’s about the whole idea being abhorrently wrong, whether or not 90% are plain stupid.
Exactly. Why does DS publish this nonsense?
The sole point and argument for introducing vaccine passports is to have vaccine passports.
To be used as tools for making money out of and controlling and sanctioning the plebs.
It is a bold assumption that the proportion of vaccinated/unvaccinated at a concert would be similar to the population as a whole. It depends on the nature of the concert. If it is a rock concert then the audience is going to be mostly young and there will be a much higher proportion of unvaccinated who will present a threat to the vaccinated at the event but more significantly are more likely to get infected from each other and then take that infection elsewhere e.g. home.
So what? Who cares? Not me. Whole idea is invalid anyway. Covid not exceptional. Move on with life.
And thereby develop natural immunity that doesn’t require a booster jab every six months. Sounds like a plan to me.
There is no reason to suppose natural immunity will last longer than vaccine immunity (it doesn’t for flu). So those without a vaccine will need a booster reinfection every year (which is the likely frequency of booster jabs when things settle down – like flu.)
Immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infections
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-021-00923-3
“A central question related to SARS-CoV-2 immunity is whether infection establishes a reservoir of memory cells against this pathogen that are capable of fending off a subsequent infection. This study is reassuring, as the majority of individuals who were infected six months earlier, even if they experienced no symptoms or mild symptoms during infection, were capable of mounting a cellular immune response against this pathogen.”
Also, recent news from Israel:
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/309762
“With a total of 835,792 Israelis known to have recovered from the virus, the 72 instances of reinfection amount to 0.0086% of people who were already infected with COVID.
By contrast, Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection, with over 3,000 of the 5,193,499, or 0.0578%, of Israelis who were vaccinated getting infected in the latest wave.”
There’s no reason to “suppose” anything about the unknown, as – in absence of information – any possibility is equally probable.
One of my pet theories is that the reason for the COVID hysteria is that most people never really get flu. They might feel a little off colour for a couple of days but that’s going to be it. Hence, they laugh about those who do. But then, a somewhat different virus comes around and they catch it for themselves for the first time in their lives. Meaning, the full monty of several days of high fever and serious pain, coupled with a few months of shortness of breath. Then, they become very afraid that they’re really going to die of it and go to absurd lengths in forcing everybody else to go through a set of largely pointless gymnastics because they believe this will help to prevent that they will ever have to have such a “terrible” experience again.
While this is ongoing, they get reinfected several times, with the symptoms progressively becoming less severe, as is usually the case, until they’re so mild that they fail to notice them at all. At this point, the hysteria reaches fever pitch as they incorrectly think the reason why nothing noteworthy happened to them must be that they’ve sucessfully evaded the terrible virus and not, that this was never an option and their bodies simply became better in fending it off.
That’s about the point where we are now: This year’s COVID is decidedly less bad than last year’s. And this year’s COVID hysteria is decidely worse. I mean, “Let the children come to me” says Herodes Johnson “so that I can vaccinate them!” is about as bad as it can possibly get.
Health does not come from a needle.
There is nothing you ever say that’s worth replying to.
Fuck off corporal with your nudging. Just fuck off.
I think it’s fair to suppose it will, given reasonable health.
Without bothering to take the flu jab urged on staff, I managed almost 20 years working in front-line NHS Outpatients in stuffy, windowless rooms, attending to the great unwashed and didn’t catch the flu, or much else – despite being coughed on, vomited on (nearly) and exposure to various bodily exudations.
I’ve hugged more people than in pre-Covid times, not quarantined my shopping, not worn a mask for 6 months, sat in close proximity to kids when teaching piano, and not been overly fastidious santising hands when out and about. I’ve had the builders in, Stood in the Park, and travelled maskless by train, and still not caught the Rona.
All this talk of antibodies being present in 90% of the population got me wondering so I sent for a Covid 19 antibody test. Negative. Wtf?
A T-cell test was also negative 3 months ago. Exactly what do you have to do to get this virus?
It’s looking like having the jab is the most sure-fire way to hit the jackpot; I’ll pass, thanks.
Our current Nazi style government is obviously going back on its promises again and insisting we have vaccine passports to do anything. As someone who refuses to have any part of any application from this government on my phone, (like many others) how do I get a vaccine passport? All I have presently is the small blue card stamped with my vaccine details, is that sufficient?
When is this hopeless government going to stop pumping our money into the large groups of its friends in the big pharma and project management companies involved in the ineffective and irrelevant “test and trace” process that we are doing far more than any other country and which makes the UK appear to have worse Covid-19 than even places like India. The only data that is relevant is hospital admission and death numbers, where the PRIMARY cause of either is Covid-19, and this data is not available and never broadcast. In addition, the number of people admitted to hospital Covid-free who are infected with it there when they subsequently die of the injury or illness they were admitted for are recorded as a Covid-19 death.
There is no case for vaccine passports with these vaccines. If the intension was the introduction of ID cards, they made a bad start by choosing the wrong vaccines for the purpose. These don’t give sterile immunity to the virus. There is now enough real world data to see that the vaccinated get infected at least as much as the unvaccinated. There are cases reported from various countries that suggest the vaccinated do transmit as well. Whether they transmit at a lower rate, I am not sure yet. As long as the vaccinated are able to transmit, there is no logical argument for vac passports (even if we ignore the ethical side).
In the next few weeks we should be having a better idea of whether the vaccines help in preventing serious cases or death. Even if they do, it is not an argument for vaccine passports.
not to mention the moral case
We Have To Make Mandatory Jab Passports Politically Impossible To Implement & New Petition
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYICpHm1VNA
Outlaw Jab Passport Petition petition parliament uk petiti…
Contact MP Link 1 : writetothem com
Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow anti lockdown freedom lovers, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.
Join our Stand in the Park – Bracknell – Telegram Group
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
Home Schooling – Ex-Primary School Teacher on Resistance GB YouTube Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ5oS2ejye0
https://www.hopesussex.co.uk/our-mission
SAGE’s models have been massively wrong on every occasion. Why would they fare any better this time? Malevolent, twisted a-holes is what they are. Do not comply, do not consent, do not listen to anything these b*stards broadcast.
Toby, with respect the Delta variant is complete b*llocks and every model/graph/data,which includes it, is likewise!! The Delta variant should be reclassified as jabbed morons going to hospital because most of the spineless GPs and practices are not doing their jobs!!
The Case Is Overwhelming – We’re At War.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8uDjO-qkp8
Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow anti lockdown freedom lovers, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.
Join our Stand in the Park – Bracknell – Telegram Group
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
Home Education – Ex-Primary School Teacher on Resistance GB YouTube Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ5oS2ejye0
https://www.hopesussex.co.uk/our-mission
It is not a vaccine, it does not immunise nor prevent transmission. It says so on the tin. In which case why do you need a vaccine passport?