I reported last week on the striking fact that, according to data from the ZOE Covid Symptom study, new symptomatic daily infections appeared to be plateauing in the unvaccinated while they were surging in the vaccinated. The trend has continued since then, with infections now entering decline in the unvaccinated while those in the vaccinated (with at least one dose) continue to surge (see graph above).
Around 67% of the population has received at least one vaccine dose, so the fact that there are still more infections in the smaller unvaccinated group means no conclusion can be drawn from the current figures about the vaccines not being effective. Also, while more people are being vaccinated all the time, that steady trend is nowhere near large enough to account for the sharp changes in infection incidence we see here.
With infections in the unvaccinated already peaking and falling, despite the Delta variant, this drives a coach and horses through arguments for the supposed importance of vaccinating children and hesitant young people – including through inducements like vaccine passports for pubs, clubs and restaurants, now being mooted for the autumn.
Why the vaccinated are having their Delta surge later than the unvaccinated is an interesting question. Is it because the vaccines make them more resistant to infection? Does the age difference help explain it? Or is it something else?
Whatever the explanation, the important point is that without any new restrictions or a big new vaccine push, infections in the unvaccinated are already falling. In the current climate of pushes to extend restrictions, delay ‘Freedom Day’, and vaccinate everyone whether they want it or not, this is hugely significant. It means all those arguments to continue restrictions and pile on the pressure for vaccination because of the Delta variant are complete nonsense.
That new daily infections are still rising in the population as a whole is now because they are rising among the vaccinated, not the unvaccinated. They will likely peak soon in the vaccinated, too, just as they already have in Scotland.
It seems that Delta has done its strange summer thing and will soon exhaust itself like the variants before it.
When it does, is there any chance we can stop panicking every time this not-very-deadly virus has a little variant-driven ripple and go back to living as free people again?
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Will,
is it possible (and I’m simply trying to be fair minded here) that the trends are a function of the declining size of the unvaccinated group and increasing size of the vaccinated group as more people are vaccinated?
Thanks.
No. The rate of decline is too large relative to the number of 1st dose vaccines being administered.
it is sudden, but I think the large size deltas are a factor. the vaxxed are a 7 times larger group. hence the unvaxxed plot is more sensitive to change/error
I agree the unvaccinated data is more sensitive. What I find most interesting/amusing is the rise in the vaccinated, that is surely a significant proportional rise.
There are about 25 million unvaccinated in the UK, vs about 35 million vaccinated with at least one jab.
I’d accept that this is only because children are skewing the numbers, but children get covid too and the graph is for ‘people’ not ‘adults’.
The percentage figures would be more or less equal then, not show a significant gap.
We had that issue with the 55%/60% numbers of Israel yesterday already.
If 95% of the population are vaccinated, you’d also expect 100% of the new cases to be among the unvaccinated if the vaccines were 100% efficient with regard to providing sterile immunity.
As the vaccines aren’t providing that, you’d have to have a 95% number for new cases for them to be at least neutrally ‘efficient’.
But if you have only 80, 60 or 40% of the new cases among the 5% unvaxxed if the population is 95% vaxxed, you have a big efficiency problem…
And vice versa and with all smaller percentages.
That’s wrong. No one said the vaccines are 100% efficient.
About 45m people have had at least 1 dose of the vaccine. We see in the graph about 13,000 cases. It is claimed that the vaccine has an efficiency of 95%. That means that around 260,000 of those people have been exposed to the virus. That’s a little under 0.6% of them being exposed to the virus, which is a sensible number.
If we take a lower number of 80% efficiency for the vaccine, then the exposure rate drops down to 0.15%. If we start factoring in false positive rates… we’re down in the noise.
Seems to me that those figures are in line what what we should be expecting.
The quoted vaccine efficacy of 95% is for symptomatic disease for original covid.
More recent data says that vaccine efficacy has dropped to about 80% for Delta variant.
But the graph is for infection, not symptomatic disease.
Data from a few months ago (published by Public Health England) indicated a vaccine efficacy of about 50% against Alpha variant.
We don’t yet have good data for vaccine efficacy against Delta, but it is very very likely that it has reduced from this 50%.
The lower the vaccine efficacy, the more explainable the data is by the increased number of vaccinated people. As I said above, with 95% efficacy, you need 260,000 vaccinated people to be exposed to the virus, so 0.6% of them. With 50% efficacy, you only need 26,000 people, so 0.06% exposure rate.
In fact, with such rates, we might be hitting the false positive threshold of whatever test they’re using. The more vaccinated people that get tested, the more false positives.
Don’t you just love it when a bunch of people downvote a comment but almost none of them say why? Maybe people just hate maths.
That’s part of it.
This is explicable when we realise we are witnessing the precise moment when the remaining unvaxxed population reached sufficient herd immunity to stop exponential growth in that part of the population.
There are 6.6m unvaxxed adults, with 2/3 of new cases are among the unvaxxed ( 20k). So every 3 days, 1% of the unvaxxed become newly protected via infection.
The peak in the plot shows the point where herd immunity occurred in the unvaxxed population.Since the vaccinated are older, more susceptible, that group still waits to become herd immune, so to speak, it cannot be far off now.
I thought that for the most part, the two communities inter-mingle. That would mean that herd immunity cannot apply to the two groups separately.
With the vaxx uptake has high as it is, the recent rise in cases cannot be the because both the tests are good and true and the vaccines work. Either one or both of those statements has to be wrong.
I dont know about this ZOE app and its statistics. I dont have the app and I would suspect few do. The numbers that are using it appear to be very large though, especially considering that only a fraction of people will be having both a test and getting a positive result. Whilst the headline is a powerful argument to stop people getting vaxxed, the ZOE system producing the headline goes onto my long list of dubious things regarding the whole ‘epidemic’.
I thought that for the most part, the two communities inter-mingle. That would mean that herd immunity cannot apply to the two groups separately.
It is a good point, the plot shows the unvaxxed have for sure stopped getting infected under their own steam. But yes, it takes two to tango, but in general young people tango with other young people and very few old, vaxxed people tango at all. This might be one of the rare cases where two vaxxed/old, unxaxxed/young communities don’t inter-mingle. When I was young, old people had their own pubs etc. Have times changed that much.
That is my impression as well. Considering the number of people vaccinated with at least one dose (around 45m), and given the stated 90-95% efficiency of the vaccine, the exposure rate is approximately a sensible 0.5% (meaning out of the 45m people vaccinated about 250,000-300,000 people were exposed to the virus in one way or another).
If you start factoring in that the vaccine is far less efficient, and that a positive test doesn’t necessarily mean a covid infection, then the rates drop even more.
So while we cannot say that the numbers we’re seeing are 100% explained by the increasing numbers of vaccinated people, it is a definite possibility.
well they measured the vaccine efficiency over months with tens of thousands of people.
Errr … and it isn’t very. Thus the constant quoting of relative risk rather than absolute risk.
Thus the dodgy Zoe data mixes in with other dodgy data in this big scam.
Love this headline. “Demolish” v. to destroy, pull down, pull to pieces, reduce to ruin, make an end of.
Let’s hope you are right, Will.
Will,
How is COVID being diagnosed? I.e. is this a PCR Ct issue?
I anecdotally recall Kary Mullis saying it is dubious to use PCR for diagnosis and if used as a verification of diagnosis it should be a Ct in the twenties.
nope, it’s zoe data no pcr.
i.e. Self reporting from hypochondriacs.
The Zoe app is obviously comprised of hypochondriacs, but it measures a relatively fixed user group’s symptoms over time so in this way it is useful.
People reporting their hay fever symptoms these days!
Yes! I don’t always get hay fever but this year (high grass pollen and a lot of species flowering at once) it’s been a doozy
Anecdotally, I currently know of several previously smug “vaccine” trial participants, who are currently isolating after getting positive tests. I am looking forward to rubbing it in when they get released. I would guess that the lack of mucus antibodies is causing them to be susceptible. I wonder if “vaccine” test subjects develop mucus antibodies when they encounter the real virus.
Do they have symptoms or just a test result?
I know someone fully stabbed who got symptomatic Covid, cough, two days in bed etc. Exactly the severity I would have predicted if she’d never been stabbed. There’s definitely some symptomatic Covid around.
Perhaps the jab is triggering a dormant virus.
BBC Inside Science – Cov-Boost trial; SARS-Cov 2 infection in action; sapling guards; why tadpoles are dying – BBC Sounds
“Remarkably, scientists have managed to film the virus in the act of infecting lung cells and spreading between them. They then added some antibodies and watched what happened. Alex Sigal of the Africa Health Research Institute tells Gaia Vince what they saw.”
Seems the virus was able to avoid the immune system.
Or summer colds.
Hay fever season!
But surely the severity was less severe than the really severe severity that would have severely affected her if she hadn’t been jabbed?
I don’t actually know, I am assuming they have symptoms though as they don’t normally test themselves (secure in the knowledge they were protected). Also, multiple members of the household got positives so I would expect symptoms, since asymptomatic spread doesn’t exist.
What cycle threshold is being applied to find Delta. Did they amended it back up to 40 odd without telling the general public ?
According to a recent FOI response that was posted on here from a Manchester trust, they are running at 45 cycles and have done so for the entire shitshow.
So entirely imaginary infections.
…but lower for those vaccinated?
In the US, 28ct for the vaxxed only.
In the UK, reported as an infection of a vaxxed only if also symptomatic, in hospital, A&E etc..
Whilst anyone unvaxxed who has a positive ‘gold standard 45 CT PCR test’ in the UK will count as a case, even if he is asymptomatic or false positive anyway.
Such double standards are always the clearest indication of outright and deliberate FRAUD!
Absolutely I still dont understand why people are not registering this??.Especially Drs,Nurses.I sit at Home a Nurse of 34 years because I wont go along with this bullshit.Ive even considered reporting these crimes to the Police especially the cull of the Elderly last year which I witnessed.I despair because I don’t see any fundamental shift in terms of enlightenment and push back.
The Covid 19 Committee are offering legal support to NHS whistleblowers
According to gov stats, the surge in cases is among 30 year old and younger. Many of those will have had their first jab only recently. The ZOE app does not distinguish between one or two vaccinations so many of the vaccinated and infected are likely to be recipients of only their first vax and that only recently, therefore most will only have partial immunity or less. They will however appear in the ZOE figures as vaccinated, so I question the conclusions drawn above.
Could the surge be because of the injections? Same pattern as the elderly, except not the deaths cos of their youth.
Deaths to date shown on ONS are still well below the 5 year average. How are they still getting away with the hysteria
Deaths? That’s yesterday’s news. Tim Spector, lead scientist on ZOE covid study, is now concerned about “long covid” and that’s why everyone should get vaccinated, apparently:
“While it seems that the link between cases and deaths has been fundamentally weakened thanks to an excellent vaccine rollout, we are still seeing a correlation between new cases and Long COVID. Vaccines reduce the chances of people getting Long COVID, by reducing the risk of seriously debilitating symptoms and also by reducing the chances of an infection lasting more than three months. But unfortunately, if new cases continue to increase then many more thousands of people, especially the young, will be affected by long term symptoms that leave sufferers unable to live life normally.”
Hey Tim, I’ve got news for you: NONE of us are able to live life normally. Maybe we’ve all got long covid! We’re certainly living through a long covid shitshow.
I’ve got a bee in my bonnet over long covid. Very little in this entire scam makes me feel more conspiratorial than long covid.
It’s on this basis that they want to vaccinate the kids, so it really requires some attention.
Me too. Like covid, long covid doesn’t seem to be defined by a specific set or intensity of symptoms. Presumably, just having any symptoms x number of weeks after being unwell with anything within y number of days of having a positive pcr or lateral flow test is counted as long covid. Maybe not even a positive test for covid. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there is a large psychosomatic component to long covid caused by depression or anxiety. And for some, they may still be struggling with the longer effects of the treatment they had. So, an ill-defined condition spun by the government to create fear and drive up vaccination rates. Just like covid.
There have always been low levels of post-viral syndrome. There have always been some people who develop autoimmune diseases after a viral infection, often flu.
I suspect Long Vaccine may be a thing
Has anyone seen a quantitative comparison between long Covid and post-viral syndrome?
‘When it does, is there any chance we can stop panicking every time this not-very-deadly virus has a little variant-driven ripple and go back to living as free people again?’ Do they want us to, is this not part of the plan?
“ It means all those arguments to continue restrictions because of the Delta variant are complete nonsense.”
All the arguments for all measures taken by this govt and many others, since the start, have been nonsense. All that has happened since is that the evidence that shows they are nonsense has continued to stack up.
People who thought about pandemics rationally wrote realistic plans to deal with them which have all been thrown out of the window.
We have nothing to prove. There was never an existential threat to society that could have justified what was done.
Thanks for cutting through the bullshit to the nub of this scamdemic, Julian.
It amazes me how, after all these months, there are still those here who gobble up morsels of duff data. The hard fact is that, although this is an experimental set of inoculations, all proper (RCT) testing has been thrown out of the window – so any data is just another pile of crap, like the data on ‘Covid deaths’.
Of course, when a key figure such as early ARR calculations comes out as ~1%, it’s hardly surprising that no rigorous testing is going on now!
Get your escape plan ready. I’m not saying “give up” but it’s time to contemplate that this is 1936 and we are the Jewish people….
Escape to where though AYM?
Sweden’s out because learning the language is too big a task at my time of life and the U.S. is out because I doubt they’d have me as I’m not from south America!
As I understand it, people take the LFT test at home, and if it gives positive, they report it then ask for a PCR test, which is immediately sent to their home, supposedly to confirm the positive test. Now then, when the Govt each day announces the number of ‘cases’ are they referring to the former – the positive LFT tests – or to the latter, ie the positive LFT tests confirmed by postive PCR tests?
Does anyone here know this for sure?
I think it’s both but not sure if they double count
If you go to the government coronavirus dashboard the figures are broken down between pillars
I think most of the community testing is LFT
I’m pretty sure the official figures, the ones rolled out on the news, are from PCR tests.
If you go to a Facebook Group called John Dee’s Almanac you can find out
John is ex clinical NHS statistics
He is doing a fantastic job unravelling the testing stats and much more. He has uncovered some glaring ONS errors so far. He has unravelled, hospital data, testing data , the whole shitshow. Its a real eyeopener. His important discoveries are shared with HART group
(20+) john dee’s almanac – search results | Facebook
Is it possible that this is just a bunch of liggers trying to get time off in which to enjoy the sport?
I have a theory that it is to do with the vaccines, which are injected, not actually affecting the part of the immune system which regulates the lungs (i.e. the mucosal). SARS1 vaccines were tested via nasal spray and also via injection. Both produced a blood immune response (IgG antibodies) but only the nasal spray induced the IgA antibody
response.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20406307/
IgA is the antibody response for the mucus membrane – the lining of all surfaces exposed to the air.
Since the virus is inhaled, the mucus membrane wouldn’t recognise it and so symptoms should still develop. Simply put – the virus cannot escape into the blood stream because THEN the immune system would stop it.
So i suspect that this is why the manufacturers only claim that it “reduces symptoms” and essentially they have played a blinder on terrified and uneducated politicians.
So if they can tell us this, then they can tell us how many total tests have been taken by both jabbed and unjabbed so we can see the percentage of positives in each group. I can’t find that information anywhere on their dashboard pages, or anywhere else for that matter.
that would be useful to know, it’s from zoe, and so it is not subject to same errors as pcr or ltf tests. the methods zoe use are mysterious and not subject to casual criticism.
Just more errors!
“Mysterious”. Well, after more than a year of the deadliest pandemic for 100 years you’d think the Brains Trust globally would have come up with some less mysterious ways to measure what’s happening. But they haven’t. Almost as if they’re not very interested.
This was given in the official Israeli covid data that has been discussed over the last few days. But you can’t see it any more because the website has been taken down.
The plot shows one thing for certain. The unvaccinated have mostly stopped getting covid19 under their own steam, no vaccine requied, thanks!
This peak will be a different shape to earlier ones. That’s because the unvaccinated cohort is peaking before the vaccinated cohort, for reasons TBD. I think the unvaccinated cohort is slowly getting protection from being infected, and it must have reached a critical point. It’s the only explanation for the sudden peak in one plot, not the other. At this point, the vaccinated (being older) are getting vaccine break-through infections. It must be the case that vaccine breakthrough is common in old people. Hence we get ~ 10k cases per day in a group of about 50m, a yearly rate of inefficacy of about 7.3%, and not far off the published inefficacy figures of around 10%. That’s my guess, gird your loins for much discussion about an odd shaped peak this time. It’ll be a two-stager. Since the first peak is in the larger cohort, it will still be a solid change of direction, perhaps….
I’d really stop wasting your time trying to make a pile of crap smell sweet.
I don’t think the ‘old’ will be participating in the Zoe app at all. It’ll be mostly the middle-aged, middle class worried well (on whom this whole bloody nonsense has been built).
Oh dear! More ATL adoption of government official vocabulary with ‘cases’, ‘infections’ and ‘vaccinations’.
In my city deaths from covid averaged 21 per month before vaccination today an average of 29 people are dying from covid. It’s as if no one had been vaccinated. Lastly before people assume the vaccines are increasing deaths should remember they’ve killed 4 people assuming one in 34,000 died from vaccination.
Ok so from what I understand about Zoe app is that people use it to record if they have symptoms of a respiratory illness? And this is completely separate to any testing?
So we can conclude the “vaccinated” are getting more symptomatic infections – but we do not know with what. My hypothesis would be that they have vaccine dependent ADE, and they are getting sick with all the other respiratory viruses that we live with. Or simply that their jab has made them sick?
I think what we also need to remember is that Zoë is not a controlled double blind study ie these two groups of people (vax and non-vax) are likely to be vastly different in terms of demographic and behaviour.
A small portion of non-vax will be people who are immunosupressed, anaphylactic etc but the majority will be normal skeptical people like us who are just continuing to go about their ordinary life.
This is good article on ADE or aka a really good reason not to get the jab: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-00789-5
If the covid vaccines induce ADE then we’re getting to the point where we might start seeing it.
I don’t think ADE has ever been seen before the six month point (certainly not in most published examples).
ADE has been seen in pretty much all apparently effective’ vaccines previously developed for coronaviruses (in general, not covid specific).
ADE will likely have a different disease progression to normal covid — very rapid progression over 1-2 days, rather than the 7 days of mild symptoms in covid, possibly followed by severe covid.
The UK’s standard covid tracking metrics won’t pick this up, so ADE does start to become a problem we’ll probably first notice it in anecdotal reports from medics on social media.
My understanding of ZOE is that they have some kind of predictive algorithm which takes reports from people of symptoms and also whether they’ve had a test or not and based on that suggests the number who actually have covid. To oversimplify, if 100 people report a certain kind of symptom, and half of them get tested and of that half, 20 are positive then it predicts that 40 of that 100 have covid and then extrapolates that to the total population. I presume it adjusts for age, state of health etc too, to try and make their cohort representative of the general population. In so far as it roughly matches the govts data from testing, it possibly tells us something, but given that the testing is fraught with problems too the whole thing is pretty vague and arguably not what you’d want to base policy on.
It is taking longer for the current SARS-COV-2 wave to find the susceptible amongst the vaccinated group than it does among the unvaccinated. In addition, the vaccinated report milder symptoms to Zoe, and sometimes so mild that they don’t report symptoms at all. The vaccinated wave will take the same path, as the virus runs out of targets in its current wave.
Shouldn’t this graph be per million of each group?
I can’t really wrap my head around the meaning of this. The younger tend to be unvaccinated and they are more likely to test positive, perhaps?
I spent time with a vaccinated person last week.. had headaches ever since…
Perhaps the demography of the unvaccinated people (more sceptical, less cautious) means the they are more likely to have natural immunity through previous infection.
We know that natural infection is far more likely to provide a broader immune response than the narrowly circumscribed vaccine spike protein.
Also the unvaxed are presumably much less likely, and increasingly so now those who wish to be stabbed have been done, to volunteer for unnecessary tests.
I have made it through this far without taking a test. I don’t intend starting now.
Early warning of the ADE to come in the autumn as immune systems weaken. I have such a horrible sense of forboding… vaccinating healthy people against a cold is even more stupid than lockdown.
The issue is the mis-representation of so called efficacy figures. They do NOT mean as we’re led to believe, that c95% of those injected will not become ill, but that the Absolute Risk Reduction figure for these “vaccines” is just c1% for the population.
In other words, if you get the vaccination or if you don’t get the vaccination your risk of NOT becoming ill is the same – around 99%.
This is shown in the manufacture’s data, and explained here:-
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7996517/
Basically, no one knows this. It is entirely misunderstood.
VAERS data is being (lazily) manipulated to obscure elderly death numbers, the victim’s ages are being excluded from the search criteria (tagged as ‘unknown’) but the ages are clearly visible in the event description. They are being falsely grouped as foreign deaths.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/3y3ULLQRMlgv/
Probably because the unvaccinated – myself included – have robust immune systems to deal with viral infections.
“When it does, is there any chance we can stop panicking every time this not-very-deadly virus has a little variant-driven ripple and go back to living as free people again?”
I’m assuming that’s a rhetorical question?
The number of cases is meaningless. We really should be comparing positivities.