Young people have been the most reliant on furlough and will likely be the hardest hit as the scheme comes to an end, according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS). There are already 50,000 more unemployed people aged 19 to 24 compared to pre-lockdown levels, and the IFS says in a new report that a further 350,000 people in this age bracket may lose their jobs in the coming months as job support money dries up. The Telegraph has the story.
In a new research report, the IFS says the age group saw the biggest increase of any age group in the numbers not working any hours, including those who are furloughed.
The number rose by 25%, or around 400,000 people, from the last quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of 2021 – a significantly higher increase than those seen in older age groups.
The vast majority of those jobs have, so far, been saved by the furlough scheme, with only 50,000 additional 19 to 24 year-olds without any job at all in early 2021 compared with pre-pandemic.
But this means the 19 to 24 year-old age group is especially vulnerable as the furlough scheme is wound down.
At the same time, unlike for older workers, earnings growth among younger employees (aged 19 to 34) who have continued to work has been lower than prior to the pandemic.
This may not have large immediate consequences, but if this ground is not regained then the longer-term effects on their incomes will be significant, said the IFS.
Xiaowei Xu, a Senior Research Economist at IFS and co-author of the report, said: “Young adults have been especially likely to be furloughed during the crisis, though relatively few have completely lost their job.
“Many have responded to this by staying or moving back in with their parents – providing temporary protection for their living standards.
“But we know that shocks early on in people’s careers can have negative effects on their future job prospects. Without effective support, there is a risk that young people today will bear the scars of the recession for years to come.”
It follows previous research by the IFS which found that young workers are twice as likely as older colleagues to have lost their jobs, although graduates were less than half as likely as those without degrees to have fallen out of work.
By the autumn, the number of graduates in paid work had fallen seven per cent, a drop of about 800,000 people, but the number of non-graduates was down by 17%, or 1.5 million, showing the much more severe impact on those with less education.
Worth reading in full.
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The article is a description of nowhere near how bad it’s going to get
It might, perhaps, have been marginally less dire if most businesses spring back, “full of beans” and ready to go. However, I suspect that there will be a great many who have managed to cling on up to now, but which will not be able to sustain themselves soon after.
The 10% and 20% contributions to furlough pay, resumption of rent and rates payments, repayment of loans and all the rest are the manacles that will constrain and then ruin them. There are several reasons for the apparent dearth of employable staff reported at present, but it’s a mistake to suppose that an increase in numbers post-furlough can be absorbed by a dwindling employer base.
Some time ago, there were “noises off” about putting people (terrible unproductive people like actors, hospitality staff etc.) into social care work, the NHS or similar. I expect we’ll see massive Roosevelt-style New Deal programmes, and the sort of national and local schemes in the UK of the 1930’s.These would effectively be furlough for national employees and cost yet more, but I’m not sure that we’ll see big infrastructure projects or public works coming from it.
It’s worth remembering that, in both the USA and UK, the unintended panacea for the unemployment of the Thirties was a massive World War, and its aftermath; US prosperity and a slow eventual recovery here.
The simple fact is that there are not enough jobs to go around. 3.5 million without work that want it and only 0.66 million vacancies. Even if there was a perfect match there – and there clearly isn’t – that’s millions who have no chance of a job.
The private sector is not capable of employing everybody, and we shouldn’t really expect it to. If for no other reason than avoiding the “what about the jobs” cry every time a failing firm starts looking for a bail out.
For competition to work its magic failing firms must be allowed to die with little mercy.
Government encouraging employers to insist all employees have conformed with diktat and been injected – with a commitment to maintain that ‘protective’ status with ongoing boosters etc – is another reprehensible tool to be used to coerce this particular age group into offering their arms when furlough ends. No jab, no job, no hope.
No jab, no job, lots of hope
Hopefully.
It’s all about eliminating the control group. Or at least making it so small that its members better health and survival is ‘statistically irrelevant’.
What did these people graduate in? A stint working in hospitality or retail will provide them with real life experience. Will look good on the CV. Yes the wages will be pretty low but you have to start somewhere. I worked in retail part time from the age of 16 until I graduated from university aged 22. It’s done me no harm. Certainly learnt a lot about people.
I’ve had that discussion with a few employers. “Who would you hire? The graduate who’s sat on their arse waiting for the job they “deserve” or the graduate who’s been working their arse off in some menial job while looking for the right job?” Strangely, not many want candidate A.
At least nobody over 24 will lose their jobs though. I mean, if their jobs were at risk too, the really intelligent person who wrote this would have mentioned them too.
Maybe Govt will just print money to infinity? Like lockdowns, there is no downside to that either.
According to https://www.statista.com/statistics/1116638/uk-number-of-people-on-furlough/
That’s 30% of the workforce and at some point very soon a lot of that shit is going to hit the fan.
They will try and get the summer rioting season out of the way first
Sounds brutal to say it, but bring it on. If this is the shock the sheeple need to recognize that we locked down our societies in vain and willfully destroyed our way of life, then so be it. After all, no problemo, right? Since Boris de falafel says we’re all going to “build back better” in a kinder, dare I say, more feminine way.
Quite so: I now have zero tolerance for anyone in government and complete disgust at the sheeple, who deserve to be lined up with the politicians against a very long brick wall!
I do not doubt we are facing massive unemployment. I wonder whether the government has adequately considered the social protests and disruption that may follow?
We have been kept passive and quiescent throughout the 20th Century because the welfare system ensured that no-one starved – this has been dismantled in recent times, as anyone dependent on benefits will know. I just wonder whether TPTB fully realise that the passivity of the British population has been bought with welfare.
If they obey their instincts to exploit further, they may face resistance that is unfamiliar and unexpected.
I have not believed the govt. statistics on unemployment for thirty years. All the numbers are massaged.
Of course the government have considered the pending riots.
That’s why they are bringing in the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill 2021. More ruthless policing of the people who do not conform…and ironically, those who do.
“Young people have been the most reliant on furlough and will likely be the hardest hit as the scheme comes to an end,”
Don’t end it then. Instead drop it down to £10 per hour and put the young people on the volunteer list – to be used by public and third sector bodies that need volunteers.
It makes no sense to throw the labour hours away when they can be used for the public good – and keep the economy ticking over in the areas that still have high unemployment.
Get them off firms books and onto a public list, but allow them to work so they can show how good a hire they are for recovering private businesses concerned about the risks of hiring people who have been out of action for so long.
Let’s help people, particularly young people just starting out, transition to private employment rather than just throwing them on the scrap heap.
Even before furlough ends there are 3.5 million people without work that want it and only 0.66 million vacancies. There just aren’t enough private sector jobs to go around.
‘a public list’ that was once referred to as the dole
You don’t work for the dole. You do work in a job – which these people need.
People don’t want a hand out, they want a job. And there aren’t enough.
Didn’t we have close to full employment before COVID?
In Feb 2020 there were 3.2 million people without work that wanted it and 0.785 million vacancies.
If your definition of full employment is the same as mine – everybody who wants a job can get one – then you will see that a statement of “we’re close to full employment” is another outright government lie.
I see
Do you believe this kind of unemployment is now more or less inevitable?
In the experience of my son, many young people want a job with conditions, and when asked to conform to normal business rules like turning up on time and not using the smart phones instead of working.
Many also expect promotion without having proved any ability in the job they have.
He has learnt lessons and now rewards staff who are worth keeping but takes full advantage of trial periods for those that aren’t and don’t show any inclination to improve.
the last thing we need is more public sector leeches.
That’s fine. Where are the other 2.9 million vacancies in the private sector then? That’s people with employment contracts and open cheque books, not vague promises.
Otherwise you are condemning millions of people to forced destitution.
You can’t say you don’t like one thing, without showing what the alternative is.
The alternative is not shutting down the economy because you’ve shit your pants over a non-event.
If only your beloved Fat Slug Dictator and his minions did not kill thousands of small businesses… purposefully and deliberately.
That’s where.
It’s amazing today, vitamin D works, lockdowns and masks don’t, employment, mental health and education are ruined by lockdowns and people sbod use their own judgement on risk.
All great headlines, if only someone had said this last April, imagine where would be now, suppose we should be grateful for politicians saving us.
All contingent on the vAxcCInE…
I thought no one could get staff in hospitality venues!?
The jobs were destroyed long ago, it is only the fake economics of furlough that has created the illusion they still exist.