There follows a guest post by the Lockdown Sceptics‘ in-house doctor – a former NHS panjandrum, now in private practice. I asked him to look at the latest NHS data to see if there was anything to support the recent warnings from various SAGE members that Britain is “on a knife edge” and that going ahead with the June 21st reopening would be imprudent.
It is perhaps a sign of the times that senior NHS figures are using Trumpian methods of communication by Twitter and a variety of governmental advisers have been providing freestyle commentary on the airwaves warning that the U.K. is “on a knife edge” in relation to the relaxation of societal restrictions.
To what extent are these warnings supported by the observable evidence?
As regular readers will know, I’m partial to a few graphs and rather enjoy looking at spreadsheets (there’s no accounting for taste) – so let’s examine a few from the recent NHS COVID data.
Firstly, some high-level stuff. Graph 1 shows the COVID hospital admissions from October 2020 right up to this week. That gives a sense of proportion as to how the overall hospital load compares to the winter peak. Note that the current level of admissions are a tiny fraction of those in October last year.
Can readers discern the rise in hospitalisations widely predicted after the reopening of schools in March? No, I can’t either – because it didn’t happen.
Graph 2 looks at the right-hand end of Graph 1 in more detail – COVID positive hospital admissions from the community between April 7th and May 28th this year. The numbers have been falling gradually throughout April and now seem to be steady at about 100 per day. Bear in mind the scale difference on the Y axis between graph 1 and graph 2. At the end of October, the NHS was admitting about 1,000 per day and at the peak in January, almost 4,000 per day.
Expressing this in ‘Simon Stevens soundbite speak’, there is one patient with COVID admitted every 15 minutes at the moment.
Of course, as regular readers will remember, a hospital can still be in trouble if patients can’t be discharged back into the community at the same rate as they are admitted. So, Graph 3 looks at the discharge figures. Looks like a pretty similar trend to Graph 2 – crucially, admissions and discharges seem to be in balance at about 100 per day across the entire English NHS. (Note the weekend effect seen clearly on the discharge graph – patients aren’t generally discharged at the weekend.)
Next, we turn to my favourite area – intensive care utilisation. It’s my favourite metric because it’s a marker of the burden of really serious disease relating to the virus. Graph 4 shows ICU patient numbers. Interestingly, the numbers of ICU cases in the ‘Indian variant’ hotspot – the North West – are running at about 25-30 as of the end of May – a drop from about 50-60 at the beginning of April. How does this fit with the widespread hypothesis that the Indian variant is more deadly and more transmissible than the ‘very deadly and highly transmissible’ Kent variant? My reading of the data so far seems to suggest it isn’t – just as the Kent variant wasn’t more deadly than the original strain from spring 2020. Again, to put this in perspective, in mid-January there were about 3,700 patients in ICU across the English NHS. Today there are just over 100.
Readers may also recall me examining claims earlier in the year that the ‘Kent variant’ caused patients to be younger and sicker – I couldn’t find any evidence in the figures to support those claims. However, the age profile of admissions now does seem to be skewed to a younger demographic. Graph 5 shows this. The 85+ age group has fallen from about 22% of the total admissions in October 2020 (139/645) to about 14% now (10/69). This is being attributed to the success of the vaccination programme in preventing transmission to the vulnerable elderly – that sounds like a plausible explanation to me.
As my final graphic, I include a comparison of the SAGE predictions for hospital in-patients with what we actually see in Figure 1 below. I’m not even going to bother looking at the death statistics in this piece, because the overall death rate in England is below average at the moment – so whatever people are dying of this month, it isn’t COVID-19. I’m also not going to comment further on Figure 1. As ‘my learned friends’ say, it is ‘res ipse loquitur’ – ‘the thing speaks for itself’.
So, to return to the original question – is there any evidence in the hospitalisation data to suggest that the country is “on a knife edge” in relation to COVID-19? If there is, I can’t see it. From my perspective, all the numbers are heading in a downwards direction. All the predictions I have recently seen in relation to an anticipated July spike in hospital cases do not appear plausible. In some ways there is a comforting consistency about the predictions of doom. They have been consistently wrong throughout the entire episode, so it’s quite likely they will be wrong again.
The renowned historian E.H. Carr wrote: “Study the historian before you study the facts.” What he meant was that commentators tend to selectively focus on data that supports their opinion and conveniently ignore information that doesn’t. This is of course the precise opposite of what scientists are supposed to do.
I have noticed in recent weeks that the media have been reporting on the numbers of cases in the community (i.e., positive tests), rather than (as previously) on numbers of hospital admissions or Covid-related deaths. This seems to be an illustration of Professor Carr’s point. The hospital admissions and death data do not support the hypothesis that the Indian variant is about to cause another spike in severe disease, so those figures are not being reported.
It does not matter if the numbers of positive tests rise in the community as long as the hospitalisation rates remain low. My interpretation of the published information suggests that is the case.
So why are the Government’s advisers saying something completely different? I can only think of two broad explanations. It is possible they have information that has not been released to the public for some reason. Or they are selectively interpreting the known information to support an undisclosed agenda.
Over to you, Professor Carr…
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I fear that Boris will delay, or only partially reopen, because of SAGE scaremongering. My guess is after a week or two of small rises (coinciding with infections from the bad weather period a week or so back), the end of June will show falls again leaving SAGE proved wrong. There will be no significant wave. If this happens, I hope Boris will finally stand up to the lockdown maniacs on SAGE and remove them.
‘When prophecy fails’
Despite the fact that their prediction did not come true, they will come up with an explanation that proves they were actually right
That’s how cults work
I fear that your spelling is a little awry in the last sentence.
Yep – they have, after all, had decades of practice after many, many failed global warming predictions!
Oh dear … that last sentence is a sad reflection of hope over experience!
For God’s sake, clamp
down on these SAGE fanatics!
Surely if the govenment wanted to “clamp down” they just would but seemingly they are “just not” .We didnt vote for scientist and yet they are running the country what sort of democracy is that again ??
Every member of the lockdown skeptic MPs should shout and demand “what metric will end this? If not in high summer with 80% antibodies, when Mister PM? What is your key measure that means we are free? If you don’t have one how do you know you have not just made a wrong decision?
Last July I wrote to my MP and to the PM questions email this simple question:
“When will mask mandate be removed. What is your measure of success? Can you tell me this will ever end? If so, how will you know? If not, tell us this is forever.
Got no response. No surprise.
Many metrics have been used
They just move the goalposts and a compliant media, non existent opposition and dozy, brainwashed public don’t notice
Don’t give up. I have 3 replies from 18.
just stop wearing it.
I am sure there will be a wave in the winter though
I suspect many of those who had the first jab have not gone back for the second
Only anecdotal, but many were made ill by the first jabs
Nearly everyone I have spoken to reported severe headaches for months after the first jab
Also many believed they would have their freedom back and go on holiday etc and have now realised they were lied to
Threatening to cancel the 21st is just part of the psychological warfare being waged by the dictatorship against the people
I’m sincerely hoping that when they try to wage war on the uninjected the reality is that rather than being the experimented on vs. the sceptical (what they hope) it’ll actually be the ruling classes vs. those who feel betrayed.
If “they” can actually stop being greatful for a few moments
I suspect most who had the first jab went back for the second.
Many were made ill by the first jab, but nearly everyone I have spoken to has had their second jab.
Nobody I have spoken to had headaches for more than a day. And I work with ardent covidians who jumped at the chance to get a vaccine.
Many did believe they would have their freedom back and have realised they were lied to, but overwhelmingly they believe they are stopping the spread of a virus that, if not as deadly as was first thought, has proven to be seriously annoying and inconvenient.
I don’t disagree with your last line.
If you feel lousy after your jibjab, be it 1or 2, it’s a aign that it’s woooooorking.
Yes and if they do get ill after being injected, well, they would have been so much worse if they had declined it, so thank goodness they took it to stop you from being unwell…
Sir, I have a close friend, much older than me and I did my best to dissuade him from having any of the experimental vaccines but he had his regardless.
To prove his point he’d told me he was fine however this weekend he revealed he’d lied to me, suffering a mild unshakable headache for over two months.
Of all those I know, and it is most of my family and friends all but one had unpleasant side effects, ranging from bad headaches, shivering, vomiting, having to book leave prior to the second vaccine to prepare for the side effects, rashes, shaking, unable to sleep for several nights, aching joints. None of these were reported to yellow card because no one knew anything about yellow card.
I have been conversing with an acquaintance; I have just been made aware he has had months of somewhat similar side effects, he has made a report to Yellow card but had to have 4-5 different Doctor’s appointments & various treatments to get someone to do it – for sure, he only found out about this reporting system via dogged persistence and self research after the fact, was definitely not told anything about this during his vax appointment, nor of the fact that the procedure is still experimental in trials phase.
I said I’m not totally sure what his options are – other than that going to the National press is a waste of time, local press possibly might print something. maybe a complaint to the GMC, because they almost certainly have to give that due consideration. He did say that he considers that the Healthcare worker did not provide adequate informed consent, and is considering options, including whether to pursue some kind of formal complaint, or even criminal negligence charges.
You don’t need a dr to do it, you can fill in a Yellow Card report yourself. Details I think are on the leaflet you get for the jab, but I bet they’re online too,
I think he meant that it took that much for the person to realise the need to finally report it.
Radical old me says there are a few dozen people running this shit show .There are millions of people in this country whi would like it to stop all they have to do is protest and voice their anger and maybe miss yoga on saturday morning but they /we shrug and say”what can we do” They/we are to blame for convincing an icompetent government that it is competent based on the level of complaince to its knowingly dodgy ideas.
The country simply has to stop getting jabbed, stop having tests, stop wearing masks and start hugging all and sundry.
No sign of that happening, sadly.
Ok, we start now.
Could well be anecdotal. Self n OH have had both jabs with no side effects at all
An interesting forensic examination of SAGE’s turds that they are so keen to leave all over the piece.
One thing :
“The 85+ age group has fallen from about 22% of the total admissions in October 2020 (139/645) to about 14% now (10/69). This is being attributed to the success of the vaccination programme in preventing transmission to the vulnerable elderly – that sounds like a plausible explanation to me.”
Another explanation is that the January peak brought forward a proportion of vulnerable elderly mortality, resulting from vaccination. The 8% figure sounds about right for that thesis.
Why anyone lends SAGE credibility after all their crap forecasts is beyond any rational explanation. The whole crew needs to be thrown under a bus. Rapidly.
Exactly. The DNR’s on elderly patients, & jabbing programme (inc. allegations of at best, not completely ethical coercion, in care homes), combined to ensure the numbers in the 85+ age group are not what they used to be!
The jab does not “prevent transmission” it only claims to mitigate the effects of the virus.
SAVE are either fools or liars.
Boris is, of course, both.
Perhaps so, but he is the properly elected leader of the nation. It is time to have him act on advice and needs beyond SAGE. He needs to lead. At this point pray, do a rain dance, or stick pins in your Boris voodoo doll that he does the right thing!
May he finally be a broken clock at just the right time!
Yes because ive heard that the “vaccine” actually works and that we are no longer strictly in a pandemic in this country.Ive also heard that because of this terrible situation we should postpone “Freedom Day” My basic education can not make sense of these two seemingly opposed outcomes .Im off to wash my mask and keep my hands two mwtres apart and save the NHS
BoJo just goes which ever way the wind is blowing. He’s just weak.
He has directed SPI-B to frighten the British people
A democratically elected government has waged psychological warfare on its own people
He’s more than weak, he is evil
Spineless coward, if he defers to someone else he doesn’t have to take the blame and if he picks the safest course, same deal. I hope it’s that but it’s getting harder to ignore the potential for malice rather than ignorance.
Boris knows exactly what he is doing – every step of the way.
The major question is whether Boris sees data displayed like this (especially comparisons to SAGE projections made without anticipation of a new imported variant). They have been wrong, not a little but significantly since March 2020. There is growing evidence that harsh lockdowns that extended into June last year aided in our winter spike. A harsh lockdown based on projections that were wildly wrong. I supported the January lockdown to provide space to jab all vulnerables (done and dusted, to the point where I in my 50s am now doubled jabbed). Those who refuse cannot sway policy. You do not need 100% compliance to attain social immunity. Look at the data Boris. Talk to those outside SAGE. Do not listen to communists social scientists who don’t belong on SAGE to begin with.
Masks must end! Social distancing must end. It’s summer. Use the natural seasonal benefit (well established for all aside from SAGE modelers) to your benefit. Yes, people will still get sick. Yes, some will die. But they are dying of many diseases, including suicide and hopelessness. Give us back our world! Covid is now, thanks to the vaccine, less deadly than seasonal flu. We would never be forced to wear masks and avoid others for seasonal flu. It’s time to look forward, not back!
SAFE MEANS NEVER!
Why is such a beautiful piece of common sense constantly ignored and ridiculed?What happened to our population.After all im sure you are only one of thousansd to share the same opinion.
If the PM doesn’t see data displayed like this he is not doing his job
It’s the job of leaders, bosses, decision makers to question experts and measure their performance
Basic stuff
He’s either useless, wicked or both
The reduction in death figures is not due to the experimental vaccines which have caused deaths, its the seasonal corona viruses demise due to the approach of summertime.
In addition, the tinder had been burned last year.
Yes I agree and I don’t think the vaccines can be tested properly until winter comes
Tested? How can you do a meaningful test when relevant data is not collected, or is deliberately obfuscated?
Agreed. Far too much blind faith being put in the vaccines being the sole cause of the decline in cases/deaths/whatever. Flu comes and goes every year without mass vaccination or lockdown, why the hell should covid be any different.
Just wait until the ADE’s kick in – then it will be an almighty sh1t show.
Got to keep that fear up, how else you going to explain the 5 million on the waiting list, the crashed economy and the joblesness thats going to follow in October.
Anything so they don’t have to face up to what they have done and take the blame
Surely though at some point they will need a point, a frame, from which to begin a climb down .Even in all this chaos their time is ticking down ,they will at some point have to be seen to do something approaching conclisive ,surely ?
I’ve been thinking that since May 2020
The UK govt and the psychopaths egging them on may not be good at much, but they are good at boiling frogs
Exactly.
Seems that the only reason for not reopening and fearmongering is the lazy and corrupt NHS doctors vacation plans.
?
Love of power, arse-covering, sinister motives. The largest portion of blame lies with the PM and the Cabinet. They are in charge.
It’s the BS variant.
Nothing more, nothing less.
And one of many still to come.
Cases, cases… they may be rising but so have tests. Current positive rate is 0.3%. I am not sure what Ct values are being used but this figure is probably well below the false positive rate. Its just noise, how many have symptoms? Its clear above, few need hospitalisation.
How many people have colds at the moment? Well, speaking personally – me last week, my son now, my niece, my mother. Are we getting tested for it? Obviously not. Given there’s 4 of us living all over the country who have had it at the same time in my family alone, 4000 cases of covid a day in a population of nearly 70 million is just not worth discussing.
I wish the NHS was on a knife edge, shower that it is.
I have commented before on here that it is high time the NHS was put out to pasture. The resultant tax saving could then be passed on the taxpayers in the form of tax cuts. People could then use the money to purchase very good private healthcare.
Another advantage of this is if the provider you choose turns out to be no good you are free to take your money elsewhere. You have no such choice with the NHS.
How can anyone still think this is about public health and not about public control?
‘It does not matter if the numbers of positive tests rise in the community as long as the hospitalisation rates remain low. My interpretation of the published information suggests that is the case.
So why are the Government’s advisers saying something completely different? I can only think of two broad explanations. It is possible they have information that has not been released to the public for some reason. Or they are selectively interpreting the known information to support an undisclosed agenda.’
What could that agenda possibly be?
‘…..using psychological remoulding as a tactic for political hegemony’
‘……revolutionary ideals had to be protected from weeds of doubt by vigorous assertion and mass coercion…….people were attached to the new order primarily through terror or emotional appeal’
https://jsis.washington.edu/ellisoncenter/wp-content/uploads/sites/13/2016/05/dome_REECASNW.pdf
The title of this referenced article?
A Timid Flock: Investigating Propaganda Under Stalin
Plus ca change……..
Every single member of SAGE needs to be Minecrafted