New SAGE modelling to be presented to ministers ahead of stage three of reopening on May 17th will show the risk of a ‘third wave’ of Covid infections in the UK has diminished dramatically and may not happen at all. The Telegraph has more.
The last set of projections, published by SAGE on March 31st, presented ministers with a difficult dilemma because they suggested a third wave of infections could be expected to kill another 15,000 to 20,000 people in the late summer if steps three and four of the exit roadmap were implemented as planned.
Ministers are expected to proceed with step three of the roadmap, with the return of indoor household mixing and indoor hospitality, as modelling teams which provided projections for ministers via the SPI-M subgroup of SAGE are said to be more optimistic.
Professor Adam Kucharski of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who works on modelling provided to SAGE, welcomed the new real world data on vaccine effectiveness.
“There was considerable uncertainty about the impact of vaccines on infection and transmission earlier this year, but recent studies are landing at the more optimistic end of the scale – at least for the dominant B.1.1.7 variant,” he told the Telegraph.
“We could still see some increase in transmission as things reopen, but the resulting impact could be relatively low if the vaccine programme stays on track and we don’t end up with variants that can partially evade immunity.”
New real-world data released last week has allowed SAGE to improve the assumptions which underpin their models on both vaccine effectiveness and rollout. Crucially, a PHE study released last week showed for the first time that vaccines cut “breakthrough transmission” of the virus by about half after a single shot.
“If you look at where they were in early April, compared to where they were in early February, they moved a huge distance,” said James Ward, a mathematician and insurance risk manager, who runs his own Covid model which closely shadows the official ones.
“So actually, it’s not very far for them to move now, from predicting an exit wave of 15,000 to 20,000 deaths to them predicting an exit wave of zero to 5,000, or maybe nothing at all.”
Worth reading in full.
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Won’t make any difference, as you were slaves.
Life of Brian refers:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9czBBKof7Yo
SAGE can do one.
They will have cooked up covid-21 before the end of the year. The only way out of this nonsense is to resist.
Given that we are few and they are many, the only exit strategy may be feet-first.
We happy few…
“And the fewer men, the greater share of honour…”
This is where people get it wrong. We are many, they are few! The recent protest march in London shows that more and more people are seeing through this nonsense.
I should clarify, I mean we the people are many, they the morons running and driving this shitshow are few.
The real problem is that they control the levers of power. The last year has resembled a more than passable imitation of a coup d’etat
They have no power if we all stand up against them. And they know it.
Absolutely.
Hmm. They also know if it’s a big if. They use these psy-ops things because they work, don’t underestimate how good these people are at propaganda.
Then we should die with honour and resist to the end. There is no other viable option.
The EU already has Covid-21 on its new passport app.
Absolutely. We will see the emergence of the new deadly mutant strain, impervious to existing vaccines and requiring strict, severe lockdowns. I predict from sometime around June 21st…
SAGE will look silly when the ‘third wave’ does appear late this Autumn, perhaps then they will announce the discovery of ‘seasonality’.
Yes, although, to anyone with a reasoning mind, they look pretty darned silly anyway.
Looking silly has never bothered SAGE or Boris Johnston, for that matter.
SAGE will not do any such thing, instead it will simply recommend savage lockdowns which the government, acting on behalf of the globalists, will be only to keen to enforce.
that’s why vaccination is key.
but is it safe and effective though? (I know big pharma and their proxies talk it up, but what do genuinely independent people say about it?)
Seriously dude, this is getting tiresome.
People can get hoisted by their own petard…
The PRC demands that Fong puts in the hours. The Party is all and Fong must obey.
It probably will happen now given SAGE’s penchant for innaccuracy.
I Cannot Make it any Simpler! Viral Triggering and Viral Realities – YouTube
We’ll have to wait until winter.
That is awful news since SAGE have never managed a correct forecast!
I turned up a gem looking through old newspapers. From the Express (20/10/2013):
“Jab to end super-flu
Scientists believe they have cracked the “Holy Grail” after positive results in the first human trials of a universal vaccine that works even if the virus mutates… it could spell the end of annual flu jabs… they hope [trials] will lead to widespread availability of the injection by 2018″.
I take it the project failed then? One wonders how much ‘belief-as-fact’ we have had from “scientists” on the current anti-viral “vaccines” that have been rushed out in rather less than 5 years.
“Scientists” are hailing them a success after just one Winter season. During which many people died after the “vaccination” programme started. And has not been effective enough for the permanent lifting of all restrictions.
This “vaccination” programme may have been many things, but a success is not one of them, from what I can see.
Geert Vanden Bossche rides again.
If they had this “vaccine that works even if the virus mutates”, would all restrictions be lifted? I think Boris Johnson should tell us.
Maybe this time Sage itself is being leaned on.The Narrative says 1.almost everybody has been vaxxed, 2. the vax works. A third wave would demolish this narrative, so it can’t be predicted.
Is this why they’re pushing an Indian variant?
I’ve said before, much of what passes for “science” appears to be little more than advanced fantasising these days (aka moelling?).
If they want to (if there’s enough money in it?) they will find some reason for carrying on with their restrictions.
Exactly!
More restrictions that can only be lifted if everybody gets the new Indian and God knows where else variant “vaccines”, now where have we heard this before? It’s so predictable that it would be funny if these new “vaccines” weren’t intentionally going to be lot more lethal than the present very dodgy “vaccines”, that only the utterly stupid are clamouring for. It’s been crystal clear since at least this time last year, that the Covid event is really about global depopulation and still people put their trust in Bill Gates and Matt Hancock. When will they ever learn, but already it’s too late for a great many.
Well – my understanding is that many councils were struggling to fund care home places for all those who needed them. Coincidence or not, a lot of people in care homes dying, and life made so dreadful in them that many would do anything to avoid them, is certainly rather convenient for them
Suicide may seem a better option to some, rather than internment in a “care home”.
Tragically probably what has happened with some. Are they actually suppressing the stats like with the DDR, or do we have the numbers for 2020?
Rather than global depopulation, or whatever the end game is, too many people think it’s about sitting inside the pub, going to football and a holiday in the sun.
The “vaccines” not working will simply mean that a new round of new improved (more lethal) “vaccines” will be called for. They are clearly working to a script.
. the vax works.
It sure does.
Evidence please? (And independent sources, not the BBC).
77th Brigade don’t need evidence.
Come on, this is fon you’re talking to!
And you people at 77th Brigade say that because you get paid to spout nonsense, with public money at that
I wonder? Some comments he makes seem legitimate enough, and likely enough some do consider themselves as lockdown-sceptic and in favour of this “vaccination” programme, however suspect it may seem to some of us, but maybe these people are just quite clever about how they do things. And some of the stuff struck me as a bit nonsensical – that comment about the IFR in India struck me as hard to square with someone genuine.
Given the comments I’ve read from fon, I would say ignore all even if some sound pro LS. Confusion, that’s part of the manipulation. The main thing is not to waste time on programmes like fon. Just a distraction.
Perhaps it’s the onset of dementia. We should not be cruel, as it’s a horrible thing to suffer, and we might find ourselves in a similar state, one day. (No, I do not mean this sarcastically.)
If by ‘works’ you mean deaths and many adverse reactions of a so called vaccine still on trial till 2023, spot on mate..
Well I never. Why are they still listening to these catastrophists?
The catastrophists are paid to produce the ‘independent” nonsense that the government actually wants.
oh are they getting tired of lying….. maybe when this is over Mr Zuckerberg and his investors will come with climate change saying we need to live online as this is the only way to a sustainable green future
I heard cryptocurrency was using a frightful lot of electricity.
Apparently Bitcoin has a larger annual carbon footprint than Venezuela
Smartphones too. My trusty old Eriksson finally died after 14 years. It made calls and texts with difficulty, and went “bleat bleat” but only needed charging about once a week.
My replacement smartphone needs charging every few days even when I hardly use it. It spends most of its time turned off.
How long do the batteries in electric cars last before they need replacing? As for electric heating . . .
do we not have laws to penalise those who raiae false alarms, like bomb scares etc?
Any particular false alarms? What about the smearing of the ingestion of apricot kernels by vested interests? I’ve been eating them for years despite these people and suffered no harm. Why don’t the EU ban the ingestion of alcoholic beverages instead? Not because of the science, that’s for sure.
GIGO, just because it says what we want it to doesn’t make it better. Its garbage. There is ZILCH evidence that the vaccines do anything, except kill vulnerable people.
you are inviting lockdown forever.. and that’s what you will get.
But is this because of the politics or because of the science?
And you are encouraging people to play Russian roulette with hardly tested and liability free experimental vaccines, that aren’t vaccines. Still you’ve got to scrape a living somehow and perhaps lowlife paid trolling is the best you can do.
I must say it’s always worried me that it’s been liability free. That must have been wonderful for their business plan.
Suggesrted letter to mp via https://www.writetothem.com/
Dear Mr MP,
In the 70’s false bomb scares were a common way to create public havoc by e.g. clearing out a cinema. The IRA used to make them all the time. Do we have laws to deal with those who make false alarms such asthe gang of scientists, known as SAGE who have been raising the false alarms about a nonsensical 3rd wave of covid-flu?
https://dailysceptic.org/2021/05/01/sage-modellers-admit-third-wave-probably-wont-happen/
Please ask the Home secretary to address the problem of false covfefe waves, which are creating national pandemonium.
https://dailysceptic.org/2021/05/01/sage-modellers-admit-third-wave-probably-wont-happen/
One of the perpetrators of this false alarm is Professor Neul Ferguson, at Imperial college London. Please clamp down hard on the individuals concerned. Please can this individual be prosecuted for raising false alarms and put in prison to prevent him doing further mischief?
Tous truly, Fon
c-
Conclusions so general that they are obviously covering themselves. Will any future inquiry properly examine the failed modelling and the iron grip it has had on SAGE and the Govt?
No, they’ll comme up with some variation on liability free for their friends
I’ve asked some civil questions re. the “vaccination” programme. I know people are busy, but if any supporter of this has a few minutes to provide some answers – I genuinely want to hear all points of view, as long as people are acting in good faith.
Well thank you and good night.
Good comparison of the SPI-M-O model here https://twitter.com/rp131/status/1388165416657293318?s=21. They are following something close to scenario 5a and hospitalisations are already miles below the model. I can’t see the July surge happening. The assumptions in https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963565/S1130_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_further_modelling_of_easing_restrictions.pdf are all wrong.
None of us who read lockdown sceptics believe a word that sage utters. More interested in what all the alternative narrative world renowned scientists have to say. Drs. John Ioannidis, Scott Atlas, Carl Heneghan, Sunetra Gupta, Peter McCullough, Tess Lawrie, Jay Battacharya, Simone Gold, Pierre Kory, Harvey Risch, Michael Levitt, Michael Yeadon, Clare Craig, and hundreds of others who have given us studies that make sense and disprove the gov’t narrative, time to take back our freedoms. Start today.
Get ready for the next ‘smoke and mirrors’ trick from SAGE. Scary new variants will probably appear, just before lockdown easing is due to end….
The use of computers by ‘scientists’ forecasting on public policy need to be outlawed.
Make the f***ers sweat over paper and pencil. Perhaps then, we wouldn’t be subject to nonsense programmed in by students, signed off by a head of department who hadn’t a clue of the subject matter!