The Spectator has added a new table to its data hub, showing where the current level of Covid infection is in different countries around the world relative to the peak. It shows that Britain has seen the sharpest decline in the developed world, with cases now 97% lower than their peak on January 9th, 2021.
Spectator editor Fraser Nelson writes:
Britain has had one of the worst Covid death tolls in the world: today’s success should be seen in that context. The severity of the spread in UK has left higher recovery immunity even in unvaccinated age groups (almost half of under-25s have antibodies, according to the ONS) which limits the size of any third wave. UCL argues that we’ll hit herd immunity tomorrow: we discuss this in the latest edition of The Spectator’s Coffee House Shots podcast. In general, Covid is back down to (or below) summer levels and almost all of those at risk of fatal infection have been protected.
Worth reading in full.
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We know how this will be spun, of course : marvellous vaccine efficacy, despite no evidence, and the total irrelevance of it to PCR+ results, which is what this represents.
Garbage in – garbage out.
The data might make an interesting study re. the presence of certain RNA strands in the population, and the variation over time and geography. But I doubt we’ll see this. So little will be learned.
One key issue would be the natural balancing of SARS-Cov-2 prevalence over time and the irrelevance of NPIs (see Sweden) – but that won’t come to the fore, either. It will all be claimed as marvelous foresight and canny interventions.
And bet your bottom dollar – the immunity will be used to warn for ‘caution’ – not as a reason to get back to normality immediately – because the failed, total arseholes will be hailed as seers with foresight, despite a trail of devastation and crap models that have forecast nothing.
Toby Young has suggested that
Britain Sees fastest decline in covid cases in the world,
And he says that cases are now at 97% of their peak on January 9th!! This would be a decline of only 3% in 3 month. Obvsly, he means that cases are now at 3% of their peak on January 9th
It’s a huge mistake Toby but you’re only human. It’s almost as bad as saying “1 in 3 people with the SARS-Cov-2 virus have no symptoms”
Fon – the table is headed ‘% decline from peak’. So I think Toby is right.
Well, one knows what he means, but what he WROTE was ‘cases are now at 3% of their peak on January 9th’. Of course it is splitting hairs anyway!
yes, we had to ignore what Toby said and figure out what he thought he was saying.
Like with this: “1 in 3 people with the SARS-Cov-2 virus have no symptoms”. You have to ignore what the gov actually claimed, and figure out what they meant which is “it’s rife”!
Just emailed Toby, simply a mistake. Text now fixed.
Good work, please email gov to say that “1 in 3 people with the SARS-Cov-2 virus have no symptoms” is pure balderdash, you just mean “it’s rife”, that’s more than enough.
Crikey fon, are you being paid overtime rate?
Total hogwash. We get just as many cases as the lying Fascist brutes decide they want.
Absolutely, they control the ‘volume knob’ for infections (false or not ) and the one for deaths. These people are pure evil.
Quite; where are all the bodies?
This crap all started with officials in hazmats in Wuhan as we watch in horror poor souls falling dead right before our eyes shown by every MSM outlet worldwide (not orchestrated of course). This has been seen in every country around the world ever since, er… NOT!
Looks like fon is doing an extra shift.
Perhaps 77 have a few sickies tonight.
Interesting that U.K. and South Africa saw the largest decline in cases. I think that this is good, but not conclusive, evidence that some of the variants, but not the Brazilian, were more transmissable. A sudden rise in cases to a high level will lead to greater immunity, and therefore a rapid decline in the number of people being infected.
Herd Immunity isn’t an all or nothing thing. Any level of immunity in the population will slow the rate of transmission. As an example if the R rate is 2 then every 10 infected people will infect 20 others. If the number of people with immunity is 10% of the population then assuming everything else stays the same 2 out of 20 people won’t catch the disease, so 10 infections will only lead to 18 addition ones. Clearly the outbreak is still growing, but at a slower rate. Once the number of immune people is above 50%, each infection will result in less than one additional infection and the outbreak will reduce in size. Obviously if the R rate is something other than 2 the numbers used above will change but the principle remains the same. I’m not convinced that any of the models, even the most recent ones properly took this into account, which is one reason why they all predict ridiculously high numbers of deaths.
If you wish to calculate your risk factor of dying with the deadly virus then Oxford Uni have produced a website so you can get an estimate. The site is http://qcovid.org/
Chris Whitty Catching Himself Out 2 Years Ahead Of Time In 2018
https://youtu.be/nW06h-dal-Y
How is it possible for SA to be 2nd? They have the SA variant which we have been told is essentially Satan’s wind.
I’m sure we will be told that the decline is due to lockdown. The fact infection peaked before it began and the decline has mirrored the vaccination slope…nothing to do with it.