News Round-Up

A summary of all the most interesting stories that have appeared about the virus in the past 24 hours – not just in Britain, but around the world.

4 min read
https://twitter.com/sebrushworth/status/1369946868915011584

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This week across the site:

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9 Comments
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realarthurdent
realarthurdent
5 years ago

With the introduction of mass testing for school children and teachers there is every reason to “expect a shift in the epidemic curve” write Ross Clark in the Spectator. “It would be better if we turned our attention instead to the hospitalisations and death figures”

But it’s not a “shift in the epidemic curve”, is it? It’s a shift in the “positive tests” curve, which has a very loose relationship with the progress of the epidemic.

The curves we need to watch are:

all causes mortality (not COVID mortality, which is too easily manipulated)
percentage of tests which are positive (not the number of tests)
overall hospital admissions (not COVID admissions, which are skewed by the fact everyone gets a COVID test on arrival).

All of those continue to suggest that the pandemic is over. Coronavirus will no doubt come back in the autumn but the “epidemic” phase is over and it will simply become another in the long list of seasonal respiratory infections.

steve_w
steve_w
5 years ago
Reply to  realarthurdent

Yes. I think this is the perfect time to fish the pandemic response plan out of the bin and start following it. And given by all measures we are not in a pandemic – that means back to normal.

steve_w
steve_w
5 years ago

latest PHE report

daily all cause deaths plummet to near record lows

does this mean we should lock down harder?

using an Imperial-type extrapolation I predict no more deaths from mid-April from any cause

phe_3march.png
steve_w
steve_w
5 years ago
Reply to  steve_w

Just to emphasise

1 – the government admits 1/3 of the first peak was due to lockdown, not covid

2 – after 9 months of lockdown, the suspension of the NHS for non-covid treatments, panic, fear, locking people in their homes, vitamin D, lack of exercise and lack of support systems – the 2nd peak will be mostly due to lockdown.

steve_w
steve_w
5 years ago

My short book on Covid

“There was a new coronavirus – most of the West panicked, threw out their WHO approved pandemic response plans and locked down. Everything else was arse covering”

PoshPanic
PoshPanic
5 years ago
Reply to  steve_w

That’s about it. A marketing suggestion.. The rest of the book could be sold as emergency loo roll.

steve_w
steve_w
5 years ago
Reply to  PoshPanic

I like it!

realarthurdent
realarthurdent
5 years ago
Reply to  steve_w

“and some bad actors took advantage of the chaos to make a lot of money and/or advance their political objectives”.

steve_w
steve_w
5 years ago
Reply to  realarthurdent

and the losers were the people that are always losers when there are big changes

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