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Fact Check: “Rishi Sunak Was the Main Person Responsible for Covid’s Second Wave”

by Will Jones
9 March 2021 5:35 PM

The Times has published the latest instalment in Jonathan Calvert and George Arbuthnott’s new book Failures of State, an exercise, it seems, in recording the Official Narrative.

In the excerpt the authors lay the blame for the second wave at the feet of Chancellor Rishi Sunak, quoting a SAGE source that he was “the main person who was responsible for the second wave”. The editors picked this incendiary quote as the title of the piece.

Calvert and Arbuthnott write:

The Government had been warned about the consequences of a second wave but, by the end of July, the scientists on SAGE were reporting that they had no confidence that R was not now above the one threshold. The Government’s limited room for manoeuvre was acknowledged by Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer, at a hastily arranged press conference. “We have probably reached near the limits, or the limits, of what we can do in terms of opening up society,” he said.

The following Monday, August 3rd, was going to be the start of Eat Out to Help Out, come what may. According to a Conservative MP source, both Matt Hancock and Michael Gove were concerned about pressing ahead, but “the voices that were prevailing in government, for whatever reason, were those that were pushing a case that was based purely on economic recovery at all costs as fast as possible”.

By mid-August, positive tests had risen to more than a thousand a day. The Commons all-party coronavirus group wrote directly to the Prime Minister. “It is already clear that to minimise the risk of a second wave occurring . . . an urgent change in government approach is required,” said the letter.

One researcher claimed the scheme boosted Covid infections by 8-17%.

The Eat Out to Help Out initiative was hailed as a triumph for Chancellor Rishi Sunak, but it was too effective, according to researchers from Warwick University, who found that it had increased COVID-19 cases by between 8% and 17%. The report’s author, Professor Thiemo Fetzer, wasn’t alone in concluding that the scheme was a mistake. “It wasn’t about support for restaurants, otherwise it would have counted for takeaways,” a SAGE source said. “It was to break our fear and it worked.” He added: “We were obviously going to have to reverse that. It just seemed insane.”

Ross Clark in the Spectator questioned the idea that Eat Out to Help Out was responsible for a resurgence in the virus last October when the theory was first aired, noting that areas of Scotland where hospitality was severely restricted were also seeing infections rise.

If eating out really is so hazardous, why have infections continued to rise in Tier 3 areas and in Scotland’s central belt where pubs and restaurants have had their business severely curtailed? It is all very nice to have data, but to blame Eat Out to Help Out for between 8% and 17% of clusters (in a month when transmission was very low in any case) seems just a little too neat. All we can say for sure is that the scheme has been responsible for an extra £500 million of public debt – and that any benefits it brought the hospitality industry have since been undermined by further restrictions.

At the end of January Ross’s scepticism was confirmed by Treasury analysis, which found a mismatch between where the scheme was popular and where cases were rising fastest.

More than 160 million punters were given 50% off meals to try to get people back into struggling pubs and restaurants, with the scheme credited for getting 400,000 workers off furlough.

Now data published by the Treasury shows areas with the high take up of the scheme also still had the low virus levels between August and October.

The figures show places such as Westminster and Scarborough and North Devon had very high take-up of Eat Out to Help Out, but very low subsequent Covid cases.

Meanwhile Knowsley, Rochdale, Merthyr Tydfil had far higher Covid rates, but lower levels of use of the scheme.

The Treasury said: “These figures confirm that take-up of Eat Out to Help Out does not correlate with incidence of Covid regionally – and indeed where it does the relationship is negative.”

LS Fact Check Verdict: False.

There is no observable relationship between areas which embraced Eat Out to Help Out and areas which had larger autumn and winter surges. Internationally, US states like Florida which did not re-impose restrictions over the winter did not fare worse than the UK. There is therefore no sound basis for alleging that “Rishi Sunak was the main person responsible for Covid’s second wave”.

Tags: Exit strategyHospitalityReopeningRishi SunakSecond wave

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12 Comments
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Mogwai
Mogwai
2 years ago

Continuing excess deaths here in the NL also. Is it just me and my selective memory or did we not hear much about excess deaths of unknown cause years back? In the summer time too…Its certainly a head-scratcher. Unless you’re Swiss Doctor who is want to lay the blame on a summer cold-type virus and the heat before any other cause.

https://nltimes.nl/2022/09/09/excess-mortality-continues-august-scientists-struggling-research-cause

26
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NeilParkin
NeilParkin
2 years ago

“Trevor Sinclair facing calls to be sacked after controversial Queen tweet”

A hate filled tweet for sure, and he has previous as his conviction for racially abusing a police officer while being arrested for drink driving. However if he is to be sacked it should be because he doesn’t have the sort of interesting things to say about football that would keep a listeners attention.

16
-1
TheGreenAcres
TheGreenAcres
2 years ago
Reply to  NeilParkin

Hypocrisy is hypocrisy though. Had Matt LeTissier said “white people shouldn’t mourn the passing of Nelson Mandela” (he wouldn’t because he’s not like that, but i’m just making the point) an equally bone-headed statement, his feet would not have touched the floor on the way out.

Also note the use of the word ‘controversial’ in the headline. That suggests that it has some merit but is not well received in some parts. There is nothing controversial about it, it is grossly offensive and has no redeeming value whatsoever. As was the comment by the US Academic that was also in the news.

Free speech by private individuals is fine, but when you are a public figure it is not unreasonable for them to be held to a higher standard. Hence why I think it is a matter for their employers, but not for the police.

34
-1
NeilParkin
NeilParkin
2 years ago
Reply to  TheGreenAcres

I wasn’t suggesting that he shouldn’t be sacked. Rather that his performance on Talk Radio is hard to square with his continued presence there. Its another ‘job for the boy’, with very little to merit it.

LeTiss demonstrates a good working knowledge of football and a reasonable perspective about the world, along with his sceptical attitude. You are right though. Sky canned him for not liking to have to wear the BLM badge on his jacket.

24
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NeilParkin
NeilParkin
2 years ago

“British Climate Divergence: Jacob Rees-Mogg Appointed Energy Minister, as Charles is Crowned King”

There is a pragmatic necessity, that having followed the wrong energy policy for years, we don’t compound it by trying to carry on as if it hasn’t been a total disaster. It is the classic, ‘if you find your self in a hole, stop digging’.

It might be nice if they take a look at the pricing mechanisms for renewables too. Charles will just have to suck it up and let the new Prince of Wales berate us poor people for wanting to be warm in our homes, and put food on the table instead.

37
0
NeilParkin
NeilParkin
2 years ago

“Why was Kemi Badenoch overlooked for Education Secretary?”

I’m a Kemi fan, and hoped that she would get Education too. However, I can see the logic of having Kit Malthouse in there instead. He is older and more experienced, and seems the type to have a go at the blob. Kemi could be a future Prime Minister, but not if she throws herself across Education and is stymied or defeated. Trade will allow her to hone her skills and build her capital, in what is a vital role of expanding the economy. Its a positive role that will suit her positive outlook. I hope I’m right.

35
0
TheGreenAcres
TheGreenAcres
2 years ago
Reply to  NeilParkin

My worry about the Trade brief would be that it depends very much on the Government cutting EU induced red tape and regulations. Otherwise all she can really achieve is rolling over our pre-independence agreements.

Despite making noises in the direction, so-far at least deregulation has always been at the bottom of the to-do list along with all of the other manifesto promises that they have no intention of getting around to.

15
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NeilParkin
NeilParkin
2 years ago
Reply to  TheGreenAcres

Accepted that priorities change, but the PM was quite forthright about bombing the EU red tape out the system. I keep hoping that she will follow through on her pledges.

10
-1
TheGreenAcres
TheGreenAcres
2 years ago
Reply to  NeilParkin

I’ll be as happy as anyone if they actually do, but those are the kinds of things they talk about but for some reason never seem to actually do.

7
0
NeilParkin
NeilParkin
2 years ago
Reply to  TheGreenAcres

My late father used to call them ‘The Gunners’, on account of them gunner do this or gunner do that.

11
0
BurlingtonBertie
BurlingtonBertie
2 years ago

I’m posting this link here as a follow on to the discussion yesterday about Common Law. If enough of us follow this path, then we can & will set-up a parallel legal system which cannot be hijacked or corrupted by those who wish to control everything, as Common Law is higher than Maritime or Statute Law. BTW ever wondered why one is given citizenship? At birth we’re registered by the state as chattel, as a ship & are therefore subject to maritime law, which is set up for trade & commerce.

https://www.commonlawcourt.com/

1
-2
JohnK
JohnK
2 years ago

Cash updates:

2022 coins from the Mint with Charles III on might be quite rare? By the time the Royal Mint produce them, it will be just a couple of months to 2023. They could become commemorative editions automatically – potentially worth more than their face value. Similar gamble with notes, perhaps.

4
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
2 years ago
Reply to  JohnK

I’d be surprised if they weren’t minted months ago.

5
0
JohnK
JohnK
2 years ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Hmm. Is the Bank of England really into actuarial gambling? They would have to be pretty secret about manufacturing in advance, based on someone’s life expectancy. I suppose they might have reduced the amount printed and minted if they thought she was unlikely to survive for so many months each year. Might even be sketching some King William designs in the background!

0
0
Trev the Geek
Trev the Geek
2 years ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Or they might not even bother, as it will be digital currency in the very near future?

2
-2
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
2 years ago

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/985093/the-queen-set-for-a-bumper-payout-from-offshore-wind-985093.html

Nice and tidy.

4
0
BurlingtonBertie
BurlingtonBertie
2 years ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

It gets worse when you learn that she has been interfering with inheritance laws….

Published documents from the National Archives reveal that the Queen on occasions used the consent procedure to privately lobby the government

Evidence suggests she used the procedure to persuade government ministers to change a 1970s transparency law in order to conceal her private wealth from the public.

Documents also show that on other occasions the monarch’s advisers demanded exclusions from proposed laws relating to road safety and land policy that appeared to affect estates, and pressed for government policy on historic sites to be altered.

Some of the bills the Queen reviewed before they were passed by parliament relate to wealth or taxation. 

One of the richest families in Britain, the monarch’s property investments are exempt from inheritance tax.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/08/royals-vetted-more-than-1000-laws-via-queens-consent

5
-1
BurlingtonBertie
BurlingtonBertie
2 years ago

This is what we are a part of!

https://twitter.com/winteroakpress/status/1568304210826989572?s=21&t=XAhgcTRzpq1UmFx8rHEK0Q

3
0
Nobody2022
Nobody2022
2 years ago

I think my wife gave me the new BJ1 variant. It sucks.

4
0
Trev the Geek
Trev the Geek
2 years ago
Reply to  Nobody2022

I have an antiquated Teasmade gathering dust in the attic. Don’t know why that just sprung to mind?

1
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
2 years ago
Reply to  Nobody2022

😊 😊 😊

0
0

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