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What Has SAGE Got to Hide?

Fraser Nelson, the editor of the Spectator, has written a piece for the magazine explaining his decision to publish the leaked, classified projections from SAGE that appear to be driving Government policy and panic going into winter.

The secrecy is odd. In classic pandemic theory, governments are supposed to keep the public informed at every stage about what they know and don’t know. The risk is that a lack of transparency erodes confidence in ministers, and creates space for misinformation. The other risk is that if government is relying on modelling, much depends on the accuracy of the modelling. If it’s not scrutinised, mistakes are more likely to go uncorrected. More fundamentally, if people are being deprived of their liberty, they deserve to know why.

That’s why the Spectator is publishing a document which the government has not until now acknowledged the existence of: the ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ for this coming winter. The document is on our website and makes for grim reading: 85,000 dead from a new Covid wave, about a third more than have died so far. It envisages 356,000 heading for hospital. Deaths are expected to peak at a lower rate than the first wave — but what is very different, this time, is the duration. The second wave is expected to get steadily worse until March.

The problem is that no one is challenging this thinking. The secrecy prevents scientists and other observers from checking the working. But even within Government there does not appear to be a culture of subjecting SAGE reports to robust scrutiny.

But some in the Department of Health are scarred by Sage advice from the first wave and think that any modelling that looks more than two weeks into the future has vast error margins. Health officials were told on March 1st that 90,000 ventilator beds could be needed for Covid patients — use peaked at 3,300 beds. Later advice — dated March 17th — suggested 138,000 beds, 40 times the peak figure. At one stage, the NHS was told to prepare for two million Covid patients needing hospital care — ten times more than the eventual figure.

The big question is whether these assumptions are, as Sage says, ‘reasonable’. And if not, who is likely to say so? The Sage scenario assumes 66% of people with Covid showing symptoms: the last UK sample put this figure at 33%. It assumes an ‘infection fatality ratio’ of 0.7%: a World Health Organisation paper recently put the average estimate at 0.3%. There is no ‘red team’ of experts in No. 10 challenging the assumptions; and there can be no debate about them in public when they are being kept secret.

Worth reading in full.

Britain’s Top GP: “Protect the NHS” Was Unhelpful

As Lockdown Sceptics and others have been pointing out since April, the infamous Government lockdown slogan that they’re still using today deterred people from seeking urgent and necessary medical attention. The Telegraph has more.

Professor Martin Marshall, the chairman of the Royal College of General Practitioners, said family doctors are dealing with a 30% rise in referrals, such as for scans, after the Government’s messaging kept patients away from surgeries during the first wave of the pandemic.

Prof Martial said colleagues were increasingly likely to encounter patients with cancerous growths and warned of the risks of virtual consultations after face-to-face appointments fell from approximately 75% to just 10% at the start of the pandemic.

In July, Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, said that in the future all consultations should be virtual unless there was a “compelling reason” for them not to be.

But Prof Martial said on Thursday that in many cases speaking to patients over the phone or by video hindered diagnosis and accused Mr Hancock of “overplaying his hand” when it came to the benefits of technology.

Face-to-face appointments have increased since the end of the first wave, recovering to 56% of all consultations in September, according to NHS figures released on Thursday. The data also showed that surgeries saw 1.5 million more same-day appointments in the month compared to September last year.

However, previous figures have indicated that the number of urgent two-week referrals – the crucial NHS pathway that should get patients suspected of having cancer to a specialist within a fortnight – was down by at least 70% during the height of the pandemic.

Worth reading in full.

Police Have No Power to Ruin Christmas

Retired police officer and Lockdown Sceptics reader Graham Low has written in to say that even in Covid Britain police have no lawful power to enter your home to spoil your Christmas.

Following West Midlands PCC David Jamieson’s ridiculous statement about family gatherings at Christmas, I’ve researched what power they actually have to enter private homes to enforce the “rule of six” or whatever ludicrous regulation will be in force on Christmas Day depending on your postcode and, guess what, as far as I can work out the answer is none.

The best I could find was on the College Of Policing website:

Entry into property
– Police need a warrant before they can enter and search premises.
– However, the Coronavirus Act 2020 has provisions within it to cover the power of entry in certain exceptional circumstances.
– Schedule 21 of the Coronavirus Act allows an officer to enter a property where they have reasonable grounds to suspect that a person within is potentially infectious, and they need to direct or remove the person for screening and assessment.
– Officers must be sure it is both necessary and proportionate to enter a property on these grounds. They must confer with a public health officer unless it is not practicable to do so due to exceptional circumstances. 

There are certainly no Police and Criminal Evidence (PACE) powers which could conceivably apply. Police can’t possibly obtain warrants for every address they are called to by a Coronastasi snitch and, unless your guests are having major coughing fits, they can’t possibly have reasonable grounds under Schedule 21 either. So my advice is politely to stand your ground, provide your personal details such as name, address and date of birth and refuse to let them in. 

If Covid is Doubling Every Nine Days Why Are “Cases” Almost Flat?

Neil Ferguson appears to have lent his state-of-the-art modelling device to colleagues at Imperial

Scientists at Imperial College London have said that according to their survey the coronavirus epidemic is currently rising fast in the UK. The Medical Xpress has the details.

According to results from a large, ongoing study into the COVID-19 epidemic in England, scientists estimated that there are about 96,000 new cases every day and that the outbreak is doubling in size every nine days.

“The rate of growth we’re seeing is really quite rapid,” said Steven Riley, a professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College London, one of the leaders of the study funded by the Department of Health.

Yet the reality on the ground is that daily positive tests by specimen date have not risen since October 19th, 11 days ago. Where is the “doubling”? The rolling average hasn’t doubled since the start of the month.

Positive tests by specimen date. Note the most recent days will be revised upwards.

Meanwhile, the Sun reports that the coronavirus is now spreading fastest in the south of England. Which mainly goes to show how much it has already slowed down in the north. In Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle and other major cities it has dipped and plateaued, having slowed down before any of the new restrictions came in. Here’s the graph for Manchester:

Positive tests in Manchester by specimen date

And for Liverpool, another big city in the supposedly out-of-control North West:

Positive tests in Liverpool by specimen date

This is clearly not a runaway epidemic that demands an extreme response. It is in fact a pretty normal October.

Stop Press: The Mail asks what’s going on when Imperial can say there are 100,000 daily cases doubling every nine days and Cambridge can say it’s 55,000 doubling every 17 days. Which one is “The Science”? It’ll make Hancock’s head explode.

50,000 Excess Winter Deaths – Remember 2018? Thought Not

A reader has sent in a link to a newspaper report from 2018 when the NHS had a crisis that nobody remembers and there were almost as many excess deaths as in the past year (which is 55,092 as of October 16th, according to the ONS).

The flu vaccine’s failure to protect against some of the key strains of the infection contributed to more than 50,000 “extra” deaths in England and Wales last winter, according to data from the Office of National Statistics.

It was the worst winter on record for more than 40 years, with the 1975-76 season being the last time deaths climbed so high above the expected levels.

The NHS was rocked by a record winter crisis in early 2018, with a massive rise in flu cases and sub-zero temperatures triggered by the Beast from the East storm, which added further to death rates.

Despite protecting against the potentially serious “Aussie flu”, officials said in January that the vaccine which had been widely used was not effective against some of the more prevalent strains of the virus affecting the UK.

The impact on death rates was apparent as early as March, when experts warned the government must “urgently investigate” a spike of 10,000 deaths in the first weeks of 2018.

But the ONS data, spanning December to March, shows that this trend continued to rise.

It’s almost as though an epidemic of respiratory illness that kills tens of thousands of vulnerable people is a regular (if tragic) event. Note this occurred despite the existence of a vaccine. But since the public health officials running the show surely know all this, how are they getting away with their irresponsible alarmism?

Stop Press: Professor Carl Heneghan has retweeted an excellent graph from VoidSurf1 putting excess deaths in the US in 2020 into historical context.

Convergent Opportunism

After Toby’s conversion yesterday to the idea that lockdowns might be the result of an unconscious conspiracy, right on cue Time magazine runs a special on the “Great Reset”, apparently unaware that this phrase is much beloved by conspiracy theorists. This is the Davos World Economic Forum’s latest repackaging of its utopian statist ideas. The magazine explains:

The COVID-19 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to think about the kind of future we want. TIME partnered with the World Economic Forum to ask leading thinkers to share ideas for how to transform the way we live and work.

The treasury of articles includes:

  • “A Better Economy Is Possible. But We Need to Reimagine Capitalism to Do It”
  • “Europe Has Big Plans for a Green New Deal. Poland’s Coal Country Isn’t So Sure”
  • “If Corporations Really Want to Address Racial Inequality, Here Are nine Things That Actually Make a Difference”
  • “Redesign Capitalism to Incorporate Social Value”
  • “‘It’s the Right Thing to Do.’ Walmart CEO Doug McMillon Says It’s Time to Reinvent Capitalism Post-Coronavirus”
  • “The Climate is Breaking Down. Architect Bjarke Ingels Has a Masterplan for That”
  • A quadruple helping of Harry and Meghan headed :“‘This Is a Global Crisis.’ Prince Harry and Meghan, the Duke and Duchess of Sussex, Discuss the State of the Digital World” and including “Prince Harry and Meghan, the Duke and Duchess of Sussex, Discuss Misinformation With Silicon Valley’s Biggest Critics”
  • And the inevitable slippery grinner himself: “Tony Blair: I’ve Always Been an Optimist. But for the First Time Ever I’m Troubled About the Future”

As one Lockdown Sceptics reader commented: “It’s not a conspiracy theory when they’re telling you what they’re doing.”

Seems to me there’s an awful lot of people out there with a little finger on some lever of power who have no intention of letting this crisis go to waste. They’re doing pretty well out of all this chaos, thank you very much. There is, as Dr Mike Yeadon puts it, a lot of convergent opportunism in evidence.

Stop Press: James Delingpole gives the Great Reset conspiracy theory a thorough airing on Sky News Australia here.

Jeremy Hunt: Little Evidence Having Covid Gives You Immunity

A reader has forwarded to us the scientifically dubious reply she received from Jeremy Hunt MP, who chairs the Health and Social Care Select Committee, after she drew his attention to Mike Yeadon’s podcast with James Delingpole.

Thank you for your reply. I am aware of Dr Yeaden’s [sic] views and I’m afraid it is not a case of them being suppressed but that the scientific consensus doesn’t agree with him. In actual fact we don’t know that having had COVID-19 gives you immunity, there is little evidence at the moment that it does. And so pursuing a herd immunity strategy, when we don’t know you get immunity, seems very dangerous to me. We would end up with many lives lost for no gain. 

You are right to highlight the issue with false positives although some of the numbers on this have been manipulated to appear far worse than they are. This issue can be overcome with a confirmatory test for those who are positive and the technology behind testing is getting better and better. Increasing testing to the whole community wouldn’t lead to more restrictions it would reduce the need for them. That is the whole point of a mass testing programme. Only those who have tested positive and had a confirmatory second test would need to isolate. The rest of us would be free to go about our lives in as normal a way as possible. 

Having been Health Secretary and now Chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee I have spent a great deal of time looking into these issues and therefore do know what is going on. In a democracy we are entitled to disagree with each other but we ought to do so on the basis of fact. The fact is we may never get a vaccine, and we may never develop herd immunity. I think we therefore need to prepare to deal with this virus, that has already killed more than 40,000 of our fellow citizens, through a programme of mass, community testing. I am though very happy to debate that point as we all still have much to learn about the virus itself. 

Best wishes, 

Jeremy

Little evidence having had Covid gives you immunity? Except for the almost complete absence of reinfection. Professor Sunetra Gutpta explains how immunity to coronaviruses works here. But Prof J Hunt FRCPath obviously knows better.

Hunt’s reply was forwarded to Dr Mike Yeaden Yeadon who discusses it in an interview with ex-BBC journalist Anna Brees here. Well worth a listen.

France’s Impending National Lockdown Causes Mass Exodus

Parisians flocked to the Gare de Lyon to avoid confining themselves to the French capital during the shutdown

There’s a lesson here for Boris. President Macron’s imposition of a national lockdown in France, beginning today, caused tens of thousands of Parisians to flee the city, preferring to spend their period under house arrest in the country. People crowded into railway stations and traffic out of the capital was backed up for hundreds of miles in scenes reminiscent of a disaster movie. The Mail has more.

Tens of thousands of Parisians last night caused massive traffic jams in a desperate attempt to flee the French capital ahead of the start of Emmanuel Macron’s new national shutdown.

Video posted to Twitter shows huge numbers of Parisians attempting a mass exodus out of the city in a bid to avoid the 9pm curfew and the start of the second lockdown from midnight.

The night air was filled with the sound of blaring car horns while social media users estimated that Parisians had created ‘hundreds of miles’ of gridlock to escape to their second homes in the country.

Revellers also seized the opportunity to spend one last night with friends and family last night before bars and restaurants are closed as the French government plunges the country back into lockdown.

Meanwhile French people emptied supermarkets in a repeat of the panic-buying that swept Europe in March as Parisians and other city dwellers prepared for a month in confinement.

Shoppers stocked up on pasta and toilet roll while people queued outside hairdressers for a final trim. Office workers in the capital’s business district hauled their equipment to cars and trains in preparation for WFH.

Emmanuel Macron’s draconian measures are due to be enforced until at least December 1, with people required to carry documents justifying their reason for leaving home that will be subject to police checks.

Worth reading in full.

Far From the Covid Crowd

The main sitting room at the sceptics’ retreat in Wales

A Lockdown Sceptics reader who owns a luxurious guest house in the Welsh hills is offering special deals to fellow sceptics. Here is her promotional blurb.

Fancy a few nights in a lockdown sceptics B&B? For those tired of fellow hotel guests leaping against corridor walls on passing, an early supporter and contributor to the site has created a sanctuary for those seeking a little fun and R n’ R among like-minded folk. The Far From the Covid Crowd B&B has been morphed from a holiday home to a luxurious bed and breakfast-come-boutique hotel as the Government continues to persecute owners of properties sleeping more than six. Guests can enjoy a house-party feel at the stylish Jacobean farmhouse in the rolling hills of the Welsh border with others who question the mindless and nonsensical ongoing narrative. Weekend breaks can be two and three nights from the Friday and cost around £250 per person, inclusive of a four-course dinner and cocktails on the Saturday evening. There’s great music on a Sonos system, a pool and snooker table, roaring fires, a jacuzzi suite, good eateries/boozers nearby (it’s one mile from English border!) and delightful walks. Visit the website here or find me on Twitter at Far From the Covid Crowd B&B. Bedwetters not welcome and some weekends will be aimed at singles (more info in the Love in a Covid Climate forum). Launch weekend is 13th November.

Round-Up

Love in the Time of Covid

We have created some Lockdown Sceptics Forums, including a dating forum called “Love in a Covid Climate” that has attracted a bit of attention. We have a team of moderators in place to remove spam and deal with the trolls, but sometimes it takes a little while so please bear with us. You have to register to use the Forums, but that should just be a one-time thing. Any problems, email the Lockdown Sceptics webmaster Ian Rons here.

Sharing stories: Some of you have asked how to link to particular stories on Lockdown Sceptics. The answer used to be to first click on “Latest News”, then click on the links that came up beside the headline of each story. But we’ve changed that so the link now comes up beside the headline whether you’ve clicked on “Latest News” or you’re just on the Lockdown Sceptics home page. Please do share the stories with your friends and on social media.

Woke Gobbledegook

We’ve decided to create a permanent slot down here for woke gobbledegook. Today, it’s Scottish Justice Secretary Humza Yousaf declaring that yes, he really does want to criminalise private conversations in the home. Breitbart has the details.

Despite reports last month that the proposed law would be ‘watered down’, so that authorities would still require evidence of intent to offend in order to secure a conviction, Mr Yousaf, of the leftist separatist Scottish National Party (SNP) wants the law to have the power to invade people’s private homes, according to the Times.

Yousaf said there would not be a “dwelling defence” — such as in the 1986 Public Order Act which outlaws abusive, threatening, or insulting words if uttered in your own home — so that discussions at a dinner table could land a Scotsman in court for hate speech.

“Are we comfortable giving a defence to somebody whose behaviour is threatening or abusive, which is intentionally stirring up hatred against, for example, Muslims? Are we saying that that is justified because that is in the home?… If your intention was to stir up hatred against Jews… then I think that deserves criminal sanction,” Mr Yousaf told Members of the Scottish Parliament.

In reaction to Wednesday’s Times report, Mr Yousaf doubled down on his position, saying: “If you invite ten mates round and it can be proven beyond reasonable doubt that you intentionally stirred up hatred against Jews, why should this not be prosecuted? It would if you did so down the pub but not in your house?”

Head of the Free Speech Union Toby Young warned that this type of censorship might occur south of the border, saying on Wednesday in response to the report: “The Law Commission of England and Wales is proposing to change the law so exactly the same thing applies here.”

Concerns have been raised over the effect the Scottish law will have on freedom of speech, including on comedy, with Yousaf saying he wants the rules to be applicable the theatre directors and journalists, too.

The Free Speech Union has already submitted evidence to the Scottish Justice Committee and is planning on launching a campaign to prevent the proposed new Scottish hate crime laws – which look inevitable at this point – being extended to England and Wales.

Stop Press: If you want to signal your opposition to all this nonsense – as well as lockdown nonsense – you could do worse than buy a “Stay Sane” badge. You can get a pack of three for £3 at Itsy.

“Mask Exempt” Lanyards

We’ve created a one-stop shop down here for people who want to buy (or make) a “Mask Exempt” lanyard/card. You can print out and laminate a fairly standard one for free here and it has the advantage of not explicitly claiming you have a disability. But if you have no qualms about that (or you are disabled), you can buy a lanyard from Amazon saying you do have a disability/medical exemption here (takes a while to arrive). The Government has instructions on how to download an official “Mask Exempt” notice to put on your phone here. You can get a “Hidden Disability” tag from ebay here and an “exempt” card with lanyard for just £1.99 from Etsy here. And, finally, if you feel obliged to wear a mask but want to signal your disapproval of having to do so, you can get a “sexy world” mask with the Swedish flag on it here.

Don’t forget to sign the petition on the UK Government’s petitions website calling for an end to mandatory face masks in shops here.

A reader has started a website that contains some useful guidance about how you can claim legal exemption.

And here’s an excellent piece about the ineffectiveness of masks by a Roger W. Koops, who has a doctorate in organic chemistry.

Stop Press: The Swiss Doctor has translated the article in a Danish newspaper about the suppressed Danish mask study. Largest RCT on the effectiveness of masks ever carried out. Rejected by three top scientific journals so far.

The Great Barrington Declaration

Professor Sunetra Gupta, Professor Martin Kulldorff and Professor Jay Bhattacharya

The Great Barrington Declaration, a petition started by Professor Martin Kulldorff, Professor Sunetra Gupta and Professor Jay Bhattacharya calling for a strategy of “Focused Protection” (protect the elderly and the vulnerable and let everyone else get on with life), was launched last week and the lockdown zealots have been doing their best to discredit it. If you Googled it last week, the top hits were three smear pieces from the Guardian, including: “Herd immunity letter signed by fake experts including ‘Dr Johnny Bananas’.” (Freddie Sayers at UnHerd warned us about this hit job the day before it appeared.) On the bright side, Google UK has stopped shadow banning it, so the actual Declaration now tops the search results – and this Spectator piece about the attempt to suppress it is among the top hits – although discussion of it has been censored by Reddit. The reason the zealots hate it, of course, is that it gives the lie to their claim that “the science” only supports their strategy. These three scientists are every bit as eminent – more eminent – than the pro-lockdown fanatics so expect no let up in the attacks. (Wikipedia has also done a smear job.)

You can find it here. Please sign it. Now well over 600,000 signatures.

Update: The authors of the GDB have expanded the FAQs to deal with some of the arguments and smears that have been made against their proposal. Worth reading in full.

Judicial Reviews Against the Government

There are now so many JRs being brought against the Government and its ministers, we thought we’d include them all in one place down here.

First, there’s the Simon Dolan case. You can see all the latest updates and contribute to that cause here.

Then there’s the Robin Tilbrook case. You can read about that and contribute here.

Then there’s John’s Campaign which is focused specifically on care homes. Find out more about that here.

There’s the GoodLawProject’s Judicial Review of the Government’s award of lucrative PPE contracts to various private companies. You can find out more about that here and contribute to the crowdfunder here.

The Night Time Industries Association has instructed lawyers to JR any further restrictions on restaurants, pubs and bars.

Christian Concern is JR-ing the Welsh Government over its insistence on closing churches during the “circuit breaker”. See its letter-before-action here and an article about it here.

And last but not least there’s the Free Speech Union‘s challenge to Ofcom over its ‘coronavirus guidance’. You can read about that and make a donation here.

Samaritans

If you are struggling to cope, please call Samaritans for free on 116 123 (UK and ROI), email [email protected] or visit the Samaritans website to find details of your nearest branch. Samaritans is available round the clock, every single day of the year, providing a safe place for anyone struggling to cope, whoever they are, however they feel, whatever life has done to them.

Shameless Begging Bit

Thanks as always to those of you who made a donation in the past 24 hours to pay for the upkeep of this site. Doing these daily updates is hard work (although we have help from lots of people, mainly in the form of readers sending us stories and links). If you feel like donating, please click here. And if you want to flag up any stories or links we should include in future updates, email us here. (Don’t assume we’ll pick them up in the comments.)

And Finally…

In Toby’s latest Spectator column he highlights the woeful lack of neutrality at the world’s largest encyclopaedia, Wikipedia. He should know. As he says, his own entry is a collection of smears that are kept in place by a ferocious phalanx of woke editors.

According to a recent article by two academics in the Critic, Wikipedia has a strong left-wing bias — which might explain why the page about me reads as if it’s been written by Owen Jones. In addition to referring to me as ‘far right’, it says I’m guilty of composing ‘misogynistic’ and ‘homophobic’ tweets, points out I’m in Jeffrey Epstein’s ‘little black book’, accuses me of being a drug dealer and says my unfavourable view of the government’s handling of the pandemic ‘contrasts with scientific recommendations for lockdown policy in the UK’. All of these claims are at least as contentious as the ‘eugenicist’ allegation, but I know from friends who have tried to set the record straight that they are immediately overruled by editors who then faithfully restore the smears.

Worth reading in full.

Comments

This week across the site:

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2.3K Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Lili
Lili
5 years ago

How I miss Thailand. It’s a beautiful country full of lovely, kind people.

JHuntz
JHuntz
5 years ago

Well woman in Wales can’t hold off with their periods any longer…

Jhuntz
Jhuntz
5 years ago
Reply to  JHuntz

Hahaha

JHuntz
JHuntz
5 years ago

I am looking on for 1 Months garden leave for the first time in my working career. Just my luck we’re heading for national lockdown.

mhcp
mhcp
5 years ago
Reply to  JHuntz

It’s funny how the mind works. I immediately thought – gardening leave = grave digging. But then what popped into my head was Hamlet:

Alas, poor Yorick! I knew him, Horatio: a fellow
of infinite jest, of most excellent fancy: he hath
borne me on his back a thousand times; and now, how
abhorred in my imagination it is! my gorge rims at
it. Here hung those lips that I have kissed I know
not how oft. Where be your gibes now? your
gambols? your songs? your flashes of merriment,
that were wont to set the table on a roar? Not one
now, to mock your own grinning? quite chap-fallen?
Now get you to my lady’s chamber, and tell her, let
her paint an inch thick, to this favour she must
come; make her laugh at that.

Alas poor Boris

chaos
chaos
5 years ago

Anyone else puke at the video of Doris Bunter and his XR Rockerfeller teenage girlfriend Crappy, mother of his 6th/7th/8th child?

Who’d have thunk the conservatives would give us full on greenpeace + socialism?

7 months later it is still surreal.

JHuntz
JHuntz
5 years ago
Reply to  chaos

The party should be toast after this but they’ll just repackage it with a new face and the sheep will turn up to vote.

Mr Dee
Mr Dee
5 years ago
Reply to  chaos

I’m stilling picking out bits of carrot from my beard.

Mr Dee
Mr Dee
5 years ago

Dump everything outside your MP’s office.

Margaret
Margaret
5 years ago

What we need are more doctors and nurses speaking out. How many patients in hospital are actually being TREATED for Covid compared to how many went into hospital for something else and then tested positive but have no symptoms?

Anecdotally a nursing friend of a friend tells us that there are only 10 patients in the Covid ward of our massive hospital, which is a regional trauma centre for a very large area. We were put into tier 2 because the council begged for it.

Locals are asking the council to tell us how many of these “cases” come from outside the area, but are meeting with total silence.

p02099003
p02099003
5 years ago
Reply to  Margaret

I presume you’re talking about QMC in Nottingham, if so Alex Belfield did a podcast the other week about QMC.
Most clinical staff are reluctant to say anything as they don’t trust their employers not to take disciplinary action against them.
The question about where patients are from is being asked about UHL in Leicester as Glenfield is a respiratory hospital.

Mr Dee
Mr Dee
5 years ago

Brilliant! I might try that tomorrow on the canal!

dpj
dpj
5 years ago

Today’s page now posted

Sue Rose
Sue Rose
5 years ago

Is there a succinct easy-to-read summary of Dr Yeadon’s points that I could find for passing on to people who haven’t the capacity/time for 45 minutes?

Tom Blackburn
Tom Blackburn
5 years ago

Anyone in Manchester?

dommo
dommo
5 years ago
Reply to  Tom Blackburn

mancunians mainly

Liam
Liam
5 years ago

“Cases” in young women aged 20-40.

There were 640,000 live births in the UK last year. The figure will be roughly similar this year (the vast majority of women giving birth this year will have got pregnant before lockdown).

Almost every one of these women will go into hospital during their pregnancy for scans and for the birth. Where they will all be tested, probably multiple times. There’re your “cases.”

This stuff isn’t difficult. Do I get a nice cushy job on SAGE now?

Ovis
Ovis
5 years ago
Reply to  Liam

No, to get onto SAGE you have to pretend not to notice that kind of thing.

Liam
Liam
5 years ago
Reply to  Ovis

It’s so frustrating. I’m just a random bloke with a bit of an education and a normal variety of interests and knowledge, and I can see these things clear as day. What’s wrong with people?

Stefarm
Stefarm
5 years ago
Reply to  Liam

Behavioural insights team

John P
John P
5 years ago

Do they also have a festival called “Freez Yanutsoff” on the beach up there where you are?

calchas
calchas
5 years ago

For the last ten years, newspapers and websites have been full of articles and commentary wondering just how western welfare states were going to square the financial circle and cope with the huge costs coming down the pipeline for pensions, health care and aged care, as the boomers retired en masse.

I wonder if those in power have come up with a plan yet.

PhilipF
PhilipF
5 years ago
Reply to  calchas

The financial side of this debacle is the great unspoken story so far. We seem to be assuming ACME magic money trees forever. When Wile E Coyote stops running and looks down into the chasm there will be a mighty reckoning.

chaos
chaos
5 years ago
Reply to  PhilipF

But in a closed banking system.. a withdrawal here becomes a deposit there.. most of the money stays within the banking system. Banks lend money they do not have. They create it.. they enter it into existence at a ratio of some 10 to 1 or higher i.e. for every £1 deposited they can lend £10. Fractional reserve banking. Less than 10% of money is cash and coin. This is why banks fear a run on the banks. Without rserves they cannot lend, create debt. Most money is debt. You probably know this already…

If I had large savings I would be quite concerned.. I think we will see savings confisacted like in Greece only more so to pay for this 6th form green reset folly.

Tenchy
Tenchy
5 years ago

Today there’ll be an orgy of fear porn puked up by the MSM. Why?

“Cases” are set to go above 1 million in the UK.

calchas
calchas
5 years ago
Reply to  Tenchy

65 million to go.

Poppy
Poppy
5 years ago
Reply to  calchas

Not even that, given that many of these ‘cases’ will have been double counted or the same person getting multiple tests.

MiriamW-sometimes-AlanG
MiriamW-sometimes-AlanG
5 years ago
Reply to  Poppy

Yes. My friend’s brother was in hospital recently for bacterial pneumonia. He was tested every day he was in hospital – every one negative – and chucked out, barely recovered, after 6 days. Presumably if the tests had been positive that would have been 6 ‘cases’. MW

AidanR
AidanR
5 years ago

Hmmm… next weekend is certainly going to be an interesting time to move house…

steve_w
steve_w
5 years ago
Reply to  AidanR

move to Sweden

Mr Dee
Mr Dee
5 years ago
Reply to  steve_w

Moving house right now. All running smoothly, despite being in the middle of lockdown Wales. Everyone I’m speaking to – furniture sales people, van hirers, estate agents, housing officers, solicitors, etc – think it’s all a load of bollards and are keeping calm and carrying on in true British style. Proud of them all.

AidanR
AidanR
5 years ago
Reply to  Mr Dee

Glad to hear it! I’m staying positive at the moment, but I don’t appreciate the sword of Damocles hanging over me like this…

Mr Dee
Mr Dee
5 years ago
Reply to  AidanR

Hope it all goes well for you. This move was perfectly timed to take my mind off the madness. Hope it does the same for you. Best if luck!

By the way, your storm is coming. Beginning to hit Wales already. Quite blustery outside.

Cranmer
Cranmer
5 years ago
Reply to  Mr Dee

Glad to hear it – but mask wearing seems to be on the increase outdoors where they are not required, which suggests an increasing number of converts to the religion of Corona’s Witnesses.

Carrie
Carrie
5 years ago
Reply to  Cranmer

Corona’s witnesses – I like it!

I saw the virus referred to on Twitter just now as the ‘controlavirus‘, which I also thought was good..

calchas
calchas
5 years ago
Reply to  steve_w

Belarus would be more my thing – cheaper booze, traditional women and a good old-fashioned dictatorship – not this modern nonsense.

Bella Donna
Bella Donna
5 years ago
Reply to  AidanR

Next doors went on the market yesterday, they haven’t a hope in hell until we can boot Bozo and his clowns out!

AidanR
AidanR
5 years ago
Reply to  Bella Donna

Yeah, it’s not much fun having to do actual life things during this shitstorm.

But at least when it’s done, I’ll be faaaaaaaaaar away from the cockwomblery.

arfurmo
arfurmo
5 years ago

Coronavirus is “running riot” across all age groups, Professor Calum Semple, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), has warned.
Well has there ever been a virus in history that has decided to take its foot off the pedal or be choosy over agre group?
Meanwhile in other news, academics ask if the Pope is a Catholic.

Liam
Liam
5 years ago
Reply to  arfurmo

To be fair, the current Pope isn’t a Catholic.

John P
John P
5 years ago
Reply to  arfurmo

The only thing that seems to be “running riot” at the moment is bloody SAGE.

Bella Donna
Bella Donna
5 years ago
Reply to  John P

Boris might as well move out of No. 10 and give the keys to Witty and Vallance.

Carrie
Carrie
5 years ago
Reply to  Bella Donna

Yes – don’t remember voting for them…

The Spingler
The Spingler
5 years ago

Nope. All closed to domestic users.

Voz 0db
Voz 0db
5 years ago

Latest news!

comment image

Fiat
Fiat
5 years ago

Styx:
“I’ve got nothing to do and all day to do it
Well I’d go out cruising, but I’ve no place
To go and all night to get there
Is it any wonder I’m not a criminal
Is it any wonder I’m not in jail
Is it any wonder I’ve got too much time on my hands
It’s ticking away with my sanity
I’ve got too much time on my hands
It’s hard to believe such a calamity
I’ve got too much time on my hands
And it’s ticking away, ticking away from me”

calchas
calchas
5 years ago

Desperately seeking a pandemic.

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

Nothing here yet.

DRW
DRW
5 years ago
Reply to  calchas

Wait until the care homes blow up again so they can get 500-1000 deaths a day back in the headlines.

ConstantBees
ConstantBees
5 years ago
Reply to  DRW

After clearing the hospitals of the untested elderly again.

calchas
calchas
5 years ago
Reply to  ConstantBees

You reckon they can pull that stunt one more time?

Rick H
Rick H
5 years ago
Reply to  calchas

The scared population have an amazing capacity to be re-infected. There’s no immunity.

Sam Vimes
Sam Vimes
5 years ago
Reply to  Rick H

Well put, Rick.

Bella Donna
Bella Donna
5 years ago
Reply to  calchas

They think we’re stupid enough not to notice so yes!

steve_w
steve_w
5 years ago
Reply to  DRW

Ivor Cummings said that 95% of patients were so old and frail that they didn’t bother to intubate them.

ie only 5% of ‘covid deaths’ were ‘real’

DRW
DRW
5 years ago
Reply to  steve_w

But scary numbers work.

p02099003
p02099003
5 years ago
Reply to  steve_w

He actually said not admitted to ITU. Being in ITU is not synonymous with being intubated, Boris was in ITU but not ventilated. Intubation of anyone appeared to do more harm than good.

Rick H
Rick H
5 years ago
Reply to  calchas

Yes it’s amazing how little Euromomo graphs get cited these days (remember April?).

“Nothing to see here.Move along, please.”

Mr Dee
Mr Dee
5 years ago
Reply to  calchas

Not if you flip the graph horizontally.

Screenshot 2020-10-31 at 11.44.44.png
Tom Blackburn
Tom Blackburn
5 years ago

Manchester Evening News: Mum in agony ‘couldn’t see her doctor for months’ during lockdown… now she’s been told she has bowel cancer.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/mum-agony-couldnt-see-doctor-19170851

captainbeefheart
captainbeefheart
5 years ago
Reply to  Tom Blackburn

Tragic

calchas
calchas
5 years ago
Reply to  Tom Blackburn

Awful story!

It might emerge first in 2021, but the increased cancer mortality rate – from missed screenings and postponed operations, will start to muddy the waters of total mortality.

Bella Donna
Bella Donna
5 years ago
Reply to  Tom Blackburn

Surely she can sue the NHS?

crimsonpirate
crimsonpirate
5 years ago

what we really need is another BLM protest- one us Lockdown sceptics can turn up and hijack for our own ends

dpj
dpj
5 years ago
Reply to  crimsonpirate

‘Black Lives Against Lockdown’ march, police would be totally confused as to what they were supposed to do.

Cranmer
Cranmer
5 years ago
Reply to  dpj

I did wonder about making a placard that read BLM: Boris Lies Mostly.

steve_w
steve_w
5 years ago
Reply to  crimsonpirate

lockdown is racist. saves old white folk and kills poor africans

Cranmer
Cranmer
5 years ago
Reply to  crimsonpirate

My guess is BLM is controlled opposition. Get people worked up about political issues like slavery which were settled over 150 years ago, as a distraction from the ongoing removal of civil liberties.

PastImperfect
PastImperfect
5 years ago
Reply to  Cranmer

Soros.

calchas
calchas
5 years ago

The quickening rise in ‘cases’ is a double-edged sword.

On the one hand, the advantage for the authorities is that it makes it easier to frighten the populace in the short-term and thus to implement further desired measures.

On the other hand, after a while cases require deaths if the message is to be maintained.

Whilst it is true that most people are effectively innumerate and that the official narrative has dominant control of the media, meaning that it will be possible to disguise the truth for quite a long time, they don’t have for ever.

The only reason this whole narrative has worked up to now is that whereas decades ago most people drew their opinions and knowledge about the world from their physical day-to-day experience in their locality, people now overwhelmingly draw their knowledge and opinions of the world from a mediated, electronic ‘reality’.

My sense of things is that the minority viewpoint – ours – is now starting to seep quite strongly out to many people. I think that by March or April, this will combine with the chill of economic reality and the very real fact that nobody can actually see a pandemic in the real… Read more »

DRW
DRW
5 years ago
Reply to  calchas

It’s been said before it can’t go on much longer, the masses will wake up in a few months. Yet look where we still are.

Poppy
Poppy
5 years ago
Reply to  DRW

Remember that from the general public’s point of view, it still hasn’t been that long. It might seem longer for us because we’ve been sceptical from the beginning, we’ve been self-aware for much longer. The vast majority of people are only just starting to wake up – if at all. Even if people are sceptical now, they probably still think the first lockdown in March was justified because we were dealing with an ‘unknown threat’ (I personally disagree with this viewpoint). Their journey to scepticism is only just beginning.

DRW
DRW
5 years ago
Reply to  Poppy

Not sure they’re even moved at all. Only thing I can see budging them is the end of mass furlough.

Bella Donna
Bella Donna
5 years ago
Reply to  DRW

Looking at the town people today I’d say the chances of them waking up soon is pretty slim.

Marina Peerman
Marina Peerman
5 years ago
Reply to  calchas

Totally agree with everything you say! Back in April and May I used to switch on the news every day expecting to pick up on some sort of clue heralding a shift in the narrative that would see this madness come crashing to its senses. It was going to be a pivotal moment bringing such relief. Six months on, I fear the best the world can now hope for is your prediction. No actual day of reckoning that will see us cracking open the bubbly and cheering from our rooftops … shame!

The Filthy Engineer
The Filthy Engineer
5 years ago
Reply to  calchas

This is where I am struggling with the whole “numbers game” and the seemingly endless list of contradictions. On the one hand we had Beavis and Butthead with their graph of doom predicting nearly 50,000 cases sometime in October. Those didn’t materialise. Then we can see that “cases” have stabilised around the 22,000 mark for a few days yet, there are claims that these numbers are “spiralling upwards” every nine days and they are apparently exceeding some metric or other set by SAGE. Which is clearly bullshit because they were obviously prepared for far higher numbers based on the “fear projections” of B&B.

Then we have the random claim that there could be 568,000 new infections and all I can find to say about that is, “great covid isn’t that dangerous then since there are only in the region of 10000 hospitalisations and low 200’s deaths and the rest of that number will be either false positives, asymptomatic people and people who have symptoms no worse than a bad cold.”

It all smacks of the “chocolate ration” to me.

Cranmer
Cranmer
5 years ago

My guess is the majority of people don’t look at specific facts in the news, they just pick up on the emotional ‘tone’, which is relentlessly hysterical and designed to stoke fear. Then they go back to tik tok and shopping on Amazon with their Rishi handouts. This can go on indefinitely – but they will definitely start to wake up when the bread ‘n’ circuses (or to put it in modern terms, state benefits and online entertainments) are threatened.

PastImperfect
PastImperfect
5 years ago
Reply to  calchas

The projection of a “Lampshade” outbreak would tie in with masks impairing the wearers’ immune systems.

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago

I am willing to bet there will be a raft of celebrities posting virtual Christmas celebrations telling everyone how great it is.

DanClarke
DanClarke
5 years ago
Reply to  Nobody2021

now that we’ve got the plebs off the beaches

John P
John P
5 years ago
Reply to  Nobody2021

Well you don’t have to watch.

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago
Reply to  John P

and you don’t have to cry every time somebody calls you out.

John P
John P
5 years ago
Reply to  Nobody2021

Pardon?

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago
Reply to  John P

Waaaah

John P
John P
5 years ago
Reply to  Nobody2021

lol, have you got a grudge Nobody? (Good name!) Sorry, I wasn’t aware of that. I don’t bear grudges.

There was a favorite saying that used to go around a few years ago in the US when Russiagate was in full swing:

“everyone that disagrees with me is a Russian bot”

If this is a reference to my not believing that this was all planned in advance, then I’m sorry. But I don’t have to hold the same opinions as you do.

And I’ll cry if I want to!

Tee Ell
Tee Ell
5 years ago
Reply to  John P

Happy birthday!

Girl Down Under
Girl Down Under
5 years ago

Well that’s hardly All Souls.

DanClarke
DanClarke
5 years ago

Prince Charles : The prince said Covid-19 provided a “window of opportunity” to reset the economy for a more “sustainable and inclusive future”.

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago
Reply to  DanClarke

Ok, we’ll begin resetting by abolishing the Duchy of Cornwall, turning your tenant farmers into freeholders. Ok with you Charlie Boy?

John P
John P
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

Sounds like a good idea.

DanClarke
DanClarke
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

Excellent. He’s been flattered by too many sycophants for too long into thinking he knows it all and is now using it against us.

mari
mari
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

I can see him fiddling with his cufflinks over that one!

Girl Down Under
Girl Down Under
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

I was always under the impression, being a child of the 60’s that the monarchy was some reliable, caring, impartial monarchy which was always going to stay the same. Now I know why the Queens gone silent, down here anyway. Charles is a raving lunatic. He’s locked her away. Did someone say republican movement?

Carrie
Carrie
5 years ago
Reply to  DanClarke

I just came across the transcript of this rather interesting speech by Boris from last September:
https://www.wired.com/beyond-the-beyond/2019/09/transcript-boris-johnsons-remarks-un-general-assembly/

Note that this is *before* the election…

What do people make of it?

Mr Dee
Mr Dee
5 years ago
Reply to  DanClarke

And he’s going to be our king next year. Queen reported to be stepping down on her next birthday.

Carrie
Carrie
5 years ago
Reply to  Mr Dee

Interesting – where did you read that?

Mr Dee
Mr Dee
5 years ago
Reply to  Carrie

https://www.harpersbazaar.com/uk/celebrities/news/a34539500/queen-step-down-95/

A royal commentator has suggested that the Queen will stand down from the Monarchy and make Prince Charles king when she reaches the age of 95.
Speaking to True Royalty TV’s weekly programme The Royal Beat, Robert Jobson said: “I still firmly believe when the Queen becomes 95, that she will step down.”
“I think she won’t want to,” the leading royal commentator continued, “but realistically she will get to a point where she has handed over everything to Charles and then how do you look your son in the eye and tell him he is not going to be King?”
The Monarch is due to celebrate her 95th birthday in April 2021, suggesting the move may take place in the next six months.

Tyneside Tigress
Tyneside Tigress
5 years ago
Reply to  crimsonpirate

Having de facto introduced Prohibition, we are starting to see the emergence of the US-style speakeasies of the 1920s. How long before we have a fully tooled up Mafia taking over?

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago
Reply to  crimsonpirate

I once went to an illegal pub in London – no licence. No doubt they will be springing up here and there. Likely to be more pop-up affairs I expect.

crimsonpirate
crimsonpirate
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

looking forward to it!

arfurmo
arfurmo
5 years ago
Reply to  crimsonpirate

Prior to social meejah , wouldn’t have been found .

Tenchy
Tenchy
5 years ago

Another pontificating “expert” (The Telegraph, live feed):

Coronavirus is “running riot” across all age groups, Professor Calum Semple, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), has warned.

Speaking in a personal capacity, he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “For the naysayers that don’t believe in a second wave, there is a second wave.

“And unlike the first wave, where we had a national lockdown which protected huge swathes of society, this outbreak is now running riot across all age groups.”

He also said there were “many more cases particularly in younger females between the ages of 20 and 40”.

Prof Semple said there were three to four times as many women in the age group coming into hospital as men, because they are exposed in hospitality, retail and some educational settings.

John P
John P
5 years ago
Reply to  Tenchy

The constant promotion of these lies is so frustrating.

Mabel Cow
Mabel Cow
5 years ago
Reply to  Tenchy

Second wave of what? Not excess deaths, that’s for sure. Fuckwit.

Charlie Blue
Charlie Blue
5 years ago
Reply to  Tenchy

He has been banging on about this increase in young adult females for months now. I’m amazed there are any left. Lucky I’m a few years into my 40s so I’m safe.

Tyneside Tigress
Tyneside Tigress
5 years ago
Reply to  Charlie Blue

He’s running an agenda. He was also called out by Mike Yeadon in the podcast.

helenf
helenf
5 years ago
Reply to  Charlie Blue

Perhaps when they’re talking about wanting to get the reproduction rate down, they’re actually talking about the human reproduction rate! Surely the pregnancy rate has gone down this year, as it’s well known it’s a miserable and highly stressful time for pregnant women, their partners and families. Not a great time be bringing a new life into the world.

Liam
Liam
5 years ago
Reply to  helenf

How on earth are people going to get together and form relationships leading to children? It’s yet another horror facing us.

Cranmer
Cranmer
5 years ago
Reply to  Liam

Tsk tsk, we don’t need people to ‘form relationships’ to replace, erm, I mean, increase the population. We just import families from abroad!

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago
Reply to  Liam

Will infants be properly socialised having been deprived of seeing the full range of human facial expressions or interacting with grandparents, friends and extended family.

mari
mari
5 years ago
Reply to  Liam

Relax – humankind has always found a way

Mr Dee
Mr Dee
5 years ago
Reply to  mari

We survived the fucking Ice Age. I’m sure we can survive a few twats in suits or lab coats trying to boss us around.

Tyneside Tigress
Tyneside Tigress
5 years ago
Reply to  Tenchy

Does he not understand that women aged 20-40 are likely to be in hospital having babies – everyone is tested on arrival.

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago

People on here are so perceptive and rational compared with the SAGE mob!

PompeyJunglist
PompeyJunglist
5 years ago
Reply to  Tenchy

Amazing how the virus has got far less sexist and racist over the summer months isn’t it? Wouldn’t be anything to do with your shitheap PCR tests would it?

ScepticalLefty
ScepticalLefty
5 years ago
Reply to  Tenchy

Cases. Not illness, just cases. Good. Should be encouraged as that’s how herd immunity will be reached

Alan P
Alan P
5 years ago
Reply to  ScepticalLefty

And now “projected cases”.
Was at 20-24,000 cases per day, now at 100,000 cases projected per day.
There, see what I did?

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago
Reply to  Tenchy

Johnson hasn’t been taken hostage, he’s allowed himself to be taken hostage. He could have sacked Whitty and Vallance for their abject failure to prepare for the pandemic or to correctly predict its course, meaning old people with a range of conditions were condemned to miserable deaths as hospitals were emptied. Then he could have had a new SAGE composed of sensible, sane and rational scientists (ie no one from Imperial College).

Carrie
Carrie
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

All this techno-stuff is reminding me of Dominic Cummings’ job advert – looking back, it seems he was looking for people to put all these processes in motion..

I’m guessing he is still pulling Boris’s strings?

Harry hopkins
Harry hopkins
5 years ago

Just sent yet another letter to my waste of space MP–Alex Sobel. Don’t expect a reply but it makes me fell better.

I have written to you before and I’m writing again. When will you do the job you have been given to do by your constituents? When will you make an effort to stop this ridiculous, incompetent and yes, evil government from destroying this country? What is wrong with you? Are you content to see this happen?
For goodness sake get some back bone and courage and please don’t reply with your usual stock bullshit just DO something I can applaud and give you credit for.

Harry Hopkins—Otley 

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago
Reply to  Harry hopkins

Brilliant letter! I am sure we all feel your exasperation.

mari
mari
5 years ago
Reply to  Harry hopkins

Ok, tell him that when the truth comes out – and it WILL, he’ll have no-where to hide when the shit hits the fan. Boris and his henchmen will retreat to their bunkers, but the likes of your MP will have to crawl home and face his constituents.
I think that will wipe the smirk off his face.

Cranmer
Cranmer
5 years ago
Reply to  Harry hopkins

You may already be doing this but if you are sending an email to your MP be sure to summarise your argument in one line on the subject line. That way even if they delete it without reading it, they or their assistants must at least read that. Don’t just put ‘concerned about coronavirus’ or something as that could mean you want more lockdowns.

The Lancastrian
The Lancastrian
5 years ago
Reply to  Harry hopkins

Cowardice has been a characteristic of the Tories since Cameron took charge.
He resigned two days after the Brexit vote because he didn’t have the backbone to see it through.

crimsonpirate
crimsonpirate
5 years ago

Only one thing for it-as Alf Garnett used to say-I’m going down the pub!
One of which still lets me sit at the bar!

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago
Reply to  crimsonpirate

Obviously not in a Tier 3 area or living outside England.

John P
John P
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

Not everyone is in tier 3, as yet anyway.

crimsonpirate
crimsonpirate
5 years ago
Reply to  John P

at some point today I will be in Croydon which is, according to the NHS test and trace a medium and high area. I think the Surrey postcode messes things up.

John P
John P
5 years ago
Reply to  crimsonpirate

They haven’t got a clue what they’re doing half the time.

Cranmer
Cranmer
5 years ago
Reply to  crimsonpirate

If Alf was around today he’d probably be a covid-sceptic, but his daughter and the ‘Scouse Git’ son in law would be True Believers. Else Garnett would be asking if she was allowed to take her mask off while she was eating toffees.

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