Handy Cock Sacrifices Scapegoat in Bid to Save Political Career
Matt Hancock has axed Public Health England! The Telegraph has the story.
Public Health England (PHE) is to be scrapped and replaced by a new body specifically designed to protect the country against a pandemic by early next month, the Telegraph can disclose.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock will this week announce a merger of the pandemic response work of PHE with NHS Test and Trace into a new body, called the National Institute for Health Protection, modelled on Germany’s Robert Koch Institute.
The Health Secretary, who returns to work after a UK holiday this week, wants to give PHE’s replacement time to be set up before a feared surge in coronavirus cases this autumn.
That last sentence is ominous. Does the Government really believe there’s a second wave heading our way from across the English Channel? Apparently so.
A senior minister told the Telegraph: “We want to bring together the science and the scale in one new body so we can do all we can to stop a second coronavirus spike this autumn.
“The National Institute for Health Protection’s goal will be simple: to ensure that Britain is one of the best equipped countries in the world to fight the pandemic.”
What is this “senior minister” talking about? The pandemic is as good as over. (See below for a debunking of the ‘second wave’ hypothesis by a Professor of Genetics).
So who will run Britain’s version of the Robert Koch Institute? Carl Heneghan? Karol Sikora? David Spiegelhalter? Don’t be silly. No, the name in the frame is Dido Harding, Conservative life peer and head of England’s disastrous test-and-trace programme.
Mr Hancock is seeking someone with experience of both health policy and the private sector to run it. Baroness Harding, the former chief executive of TalkTalk who heads up NHS Test and Trace, is tipped for the role.
Talk about failing upwards! To date, Harding’s main claims to fame are presiding over a cyber-attack affecting tens of thousands of customers while Chief Executive of TalkTalk and overseeing NHSX’s test-and-trace app which has now been abandoned, costing the taxpayer £10 billion. Her appointment would be controversial since she’s married to Conservative MP John Penrose who sits on the advisory board of the think tank “1828” which has called for PHE to be scrapped.
I published a piece by Rob Lyons calling for PHE to be scrapped on May 10th so I suppose I should be happy. And there’s little doubt it’s done a terrible job of coordinating England’s response to the crisis. But shouldn’t Matt Hancock take responsibility for those failures? According to Nick Davies, programme director at the Institute of Government, PHE has “direct accountability to Matt Hancock”. And how will the new National Institute for Health Protection differ from the National Institute for Health Research, headed by Chris Whitty? Or is that being scrapped as well? Incidentally, PHE replaced an organisation called the Health Protection Agency. Does this mean that when the National Institute for Health Protection is blamed for some other failure in 10 years time it will be replaced with a revamped version of PHE?
Incidentally, if this move does prove to be politically effective, which quango will be next? The Government is spoilt for choice, obviously, but my money’s on Ofqual, the English exams regulator. It isn’t exactly covering itself in glory when it comes to this year’s A-level results and the crisis will only deepen next week with GCSE results due to come out.
According to the Sunday Times:
In an about-turn, Ofqual issued new guidance yesterday allowing schools to use the grades predicted by teachers to appeal against pupils’ results.
However, late Saturday night, Ofqual said the policy was “being reviewed” by its board and that further information would be released “in due course”.
This left Gavin Williamson, the Education Secretary, exposed because it broke the “triple lock” he had promised A-level and GCSE pupils only 72 hours earlier.
On Wednesday, Williamson said appeals could be made on the basis of mock exams. But under the new rules, mock results cannot trump teachers’ predictions.
Neil Ferguson Based IFR Estimate on Tiny Sample
There’s a fascinating Twitter thread by Graham Neary in which he drills down into how Neil Ferguson and his team came up with an estimated Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of 0.9%. (The real figure is closer to 0.1%). Apparently, it was based on an analysis of the passengers on six flights that departed from Wuhan between January 30th and February 1st. Out of the 689 passengers, only six tested positive for Covid. That – and that alone – was the basis for the initial IFR estimate.
Congratulations to Neary for a sterling bit of detective work. For those who aren’t on Twitter, I’ve unrolled the thread here. Neary concludes: “As we live through the consequences of economic depression and the (hopefully temporary) destruction of our way of life, remember that it all comes back to the belief that finding six people with Covid on six flights was a good way to estimate how many people had the disease.”
Who’s Managing the Covid Crisis?
A reader has posed an interesting question.
As a retired manager, one aspect of our current ludicrous actions on Covid that annoys me is that there seems to be no attempt to operate even the most basic principles of project-management. There seems to be no analysis, no plan, no objectives, no identification of options, no targets, no idea of what success looks like, no statement of the ‘endgame’ and no cost benefit analysis.
The original objective of “flatten the curve, protect the NHS and save lives” has clearly now been achieved but we have carried on with a kind of bizarre game of covid ‘ring-a-roses’ as we all panic about test results with no idea what we are trying to achieve?
I just wondered if there might be a Carl Heneghan of the management world who could usefully comment on the Covid hoo-ha from a management perspective?
If a Carl Heneghan of the management world is reading this and would like to write something about the Government’s colossal mismanagement of this crisis, please get in touch. Although the Telegraph’s Jeremy Warner is doing a pretty good job.
Global Law Firms Prepare to Sue UK
According to the Guardian, international law firms are lining up to sue the British Government on behalf of clients who’ve lost money as a result of the lockdown.
Governments around the world – including the UK – face a wave of lawsuits from foreign companies who complain that their profits have been hit by the pandemic.
Webinars and presentations shared with clients reveal that leading global law firms anticipate governments around the world will soon face claims over their response to the COVID-19 crisis. The actions are being brought under investor state dispute settlement (ISDS) clauses which are embedded in trade and investment agreements and allow foreign investors and firms to sue other countries’ governments.
The claims are heard in highly secretive ad hoc tribunals before a panel of three judges. Often it is not apparent that a case is being brought until the panel sits.
The law firm Alston & Bird used a recent webinar to predict that the UK will be sued over Sadiq Khan’s decision to close Crossrail construction sites during the pandemic. The decision was at odds with the government’s policy of allowing sites to operate throughout lockdown, an inconsistency that they say opens up the way for a legal challenge.
Law firm Reed Smith has predicted that measures taken by governments to deal with the crisis are affecting investments “directly and significantly and could give rise to substantial claims”.
And Ropes & Gray has issued an alert advising clients to consider actions brought under investment treaties as “a powerful tool to recover or prevent loss resulting from COVID-19-related government actions”.
More power to their elbows.
Three Months to Global Herd Immunity
A Professor of Genetics who’s a regular reader of Lockdown Sceptics has sent me a quick and dirty analysis of when the world is likely to achieve herd immunity.
I’ve looked at how the global prevalence has been changing over the last many months, if one eliminates the influence of massively increased levels of testing. Bottom line – it has been creeping up, but really not changed that much overall (median has risen from just over 2-3% to 3-4%). Declines in some places are matched by increases elsewhere. I suspect we’ve reached the peak though, and the next few weeks and months will see the global curve start to roll over and decline.
Now, given that in the UK the prevalence is falling by ~5% per day, if we assume NO new infections then this means the virus is detectable in a person on average for about 20 days. However, we know some new infections are occurring, and so the virus detection window is probably something more like 10 days (or even less!). Using this 10 day guesstimate, and a steady prevalence of 3-4%, then this means that every 10 days another 3-4% of people are getting infected globally. There are many caveats to this – but these numbers would mean that to get to 30% infected (Carl H’s estimate of what is needed for herd immunity) will take only three months. Or if you want to go with the insanely high pantsdown requirement of 80%, then this will take one year globally. In the UK’s case, we were one of the first countries to see the virus spread widely – and it actually rose to >40% prevalence in both Pillar 1 and 2 datasets late March. So we definitely reach the CH level for herd immunity some time ago, and also the NF required level more recently or soon. This has to be why the virus has been fading away naturally.
And one final line of argumentation for that… assuming a 0.26% IFR, and 41k deaths in the UK, indicates ~16M (41k/0.0026) have been infected, which is 24% of the UK population. Assume a 0.1% IFR and this goes to 61%. And these numbers are absolute minimum values, as the PCR assay has quite a high false negative rate!
Government and the people need to know this, as they are all currently “scared to lose their fear”! Mass hysteria exists in extremis, and will not end until our ‘leaders’ and the people understand reality. That said, most people I talk to think its all a nonsense and a scam of some sort – so there is hope!
Fishy Data
A reader has spotted a curious cause of death.
Having just read in today’s Sunday Telegraph that a man was killed in a boat off Darwin, Australia when a mackerel flew out of the water hitting him in the chest I am left wondering if the fish came in on the second wave will it be reported as a Covid death?
Round-Up
- ‘BBC Drops Kipling Poem for VJ Day Commemorations as Singer Complains of “Cultural Superiority”‘ – BBC ditches Kipling after complaint from Jamaican opera singer
- ‘How did facemasks become part of the culture war?‘ – Reluctantly pro-mask piece by Rod Liddle. He’ll come around
- ‘Cancer patients to pay heavy price for checks lost to coronavirus lockdown‘ – Five-year survival rates expected to fall due to delays
- ‘British universities have become indoctrination camps. A reckoning is long overdue‘ – Douglas Murray argues that the Covid-induced demise of third-rate universities is no loss to higher education
- ‘Asda explains face mask rules after customer complains not enough shoppers wear them in store‘ – According to the Sun, Asda isn’t enforcing the mask rules
- ‘Whitehall’s systemic failure exposed: why this was a disaster ten years in the making‘ – Telegraph piece with some background on the scrapping of PHE
- ‘No cruise is good news for tourists in empty Venice‘ – Yup, it’s a great time to visit the almost empty city
- ‘Gyms and Fitness Studios: Confounding COVID-19‘ – Good piece by Sarah Ingham for Hector Drummond Magazine on the mystery of why so few people appear to have caught Covid in gyms and fitness studios in February and March
- ‘”On par with North Korea”: Three out of four requests to leave Australia refused‘ – Incredibly, 75% of people asking to leave Australia are being told they can’t
- ‘Is Sweden’s coronavirus strategy a cautionary tale or a success story?‘ – Barrel-scraping attempt by the New Scientist to portray Sweden’s Covid strategy as a failure
- ‘Tourism chief on holidays in Italy amid massive campaign to promote staycations‘ – Michael Cawley, head of Ireland’s tourism promotion agency which has been urging Irish nationals not to go abroad, is on holiday in Italy
- ‘Crucial Viewing – to truly understand our current Viral Issue‘ – Good explainer from Ivor Cummins
Theme Tunes Suggested by Readers
Three today: “Stitched Up” by John Mayer and Herbie Hancock, “Dead Souls” by Joy Division and “Don’t Fall” by the Chameleons.
Small Businesses That Have Re-Opened
A couple of months ago, Lockdown Sceptics launched a searchable directory of open businesses across the UK. The idea is to celebrate those retail and hospitality businesses that have re-opened, as well as help people find out what has opened in their area. But we need your help to build it, so we’ve created a form you can fill out to tell us about those businesses that have opened near you.
Now that non-essential shops have re-opened – or most of them, anyway – we’re now focusing on pubs, bars, clubs and restaurants, as well as other social venues. As of July 4th, many of them have re-opened too, but not all (and some of them are at risk of having to close again). Please visit the page and let us know about those brave folk who are doing their bit to get our country back on its feet – particularly if they’re not insisting on face masks! Don’t worry if your entries don’t show up immediately – we need to approve them once you’ve entered the data.
Love in the Time of Covid
We have created some Lockdown Sceptics Forums that are now open, including a dating forum called “Love in a Covid Climate” that has attracted a bit of attention (including this piece on Fox News). We have a team of moderators in place to remove spam and deal with the trolls, but sometimes it takes a little while so please bear with us. You have to register to use the Forums, but that should just be a one-time thing. Any problems, email the Lockdown Sceptics webmaster Ian Rons here.
“Mask Exempt” Lanyards
I’ve created a permanent slot down here for people who want to buy (or make) a “Mask Exempt” lanyard/card. You can print out and laminate a fairly standard one for free here and it has the advantage of not explicitly claiming you have a disability. But if you have no qualms about that (or you are disabled), you can buy a lanyard from Amazon saying you do have a disability/medical exemption here (now showing it will arrive between Sept 30th to Oct 9th). The Government has instructions on how to download an official “Mask Exempt” notice to put on your phone here. You can get a “Hidden Disability” tag from ebay here and an “exempt” card or just £2.79 from Etsy here.
Don’t forget to sign the petition on the UK Government’s petitions website calling for an end to mandatory face nappies in shops here (now over 29,000). The Government responded to this petition today. Usual balls. You can read the response here.
A reader has started a website that contains some useful guidance about how you can claim legal exemption.
And here’s a round-up of the scientific evidence on the effectiveness of mask (threadbare at best).
Shameless Begging Bit
Thanks as always to those of you who made a donation in the past 24 hours to pay for the upkeep of this site. Doing these daily updates is a lot of work (although I have help from several people, including one indefatigable techie who doesn’t want to be named). If you feel like donating, please click here. And if you want to flag up any stories or links I should include in future updates, email me here.
And Finally…
A reader has produced this sticker, printed a ton of them and is handing them out to local shops. A surprising number are displaying them in their windows. Congratulations, Sir. You are my Sceptic of the Week.
Discussion
Comments
This week across the site:
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MONDAY’S PAGE
Bit late but just in case people havent noticed
https://dailysceptic.org/2020/08/17/latest-news-106/#comments
It is here
New Update just in —–>>>>>
Just had a grocery delivery from Waitrose….first time we;ve ever used the system, being normally “in-person” users of the supermarket. But not now, with maskomania.
Bloody hell. The driver ought to be laid off….he was absolutely scared stiff of delivering anything. I was asked if I wanted the stuff brought to the door, but I must stay inside…or else he could drop the goods in the front garden area and I would pick up.
Having selected the latter, I stepped forward to collect the first lot, he went into a tizz-wozz about being too close and I needed to step back….give me strength…he then said it was “to keep him and me safe”…I replied “safe from what? the virus has gone!”
He didn’t like that reply, and said “oh well, I’ve got a family to think about” (making me out to be some kind of leper).
Jesus wept (and I do not like taking the Lord’s name in vain)…unless some profound miracle happens in this world, we are battling against utter zombies. Brainwashed beyond belief; beyond redemption.
I really don’t know whether I want another delivery like this….the bloke was utterly deluded. He is the type who will be first… Read more »
He’s in the wrong job. He should go off to the desert to be a hermit.
“Brainwashed beyond belief”
That is the top and bottom of it.
We have been using Waitrose for deliveries since early July. The delivery drivers didn’t wear muzzles until after the 24th of July.
We just had a secondhand piano delivered by a removals outfit. Three men, no masks, no ‘distancing’ or anything whatsoever mentioned about the virus. A refreshing glimpse of normality.
Do you know the piano’s on my foot?
“You ‘um it son…”!
It struck me that when we were young, our parents taught us never to stare at people in wheelchairs or those who were different from us in any way as it was very bad manners. Thankfully for us naked shoppers, it appears that most people have remembered those early lessons and going maskless becomes easier each time.
In Asda this morning, I needed two hands to count the number of maskless shoppers-last week I just needed two fingers!
Step by step, little by little.
Hopeful.
I pull up a thin snood when I enter the supermarket, then pull it down under my nose, sometimes it slips right down. No-one bats an eyelid and I see plenty of others with their mask under their nose and a small but increasing number with no mask.
YAY!
Me again – why on earth were all those students protesting A level results at the weekend wearing masks outside?
Because they’re stupid and they think masks are cool.
Because they were told to by the photographer? Or the photographer zoomed in on a group with masks? Or the editor only chose images of kids in masks – ignoring the ones of them without masks?
No, I’m sorry to say that my recent experience of under 25s on the street tells me that they’re stupid and they think masks are cool.
If it’s the BBC then the last point is definitely true.
But it is a “requirement” to wear a mask if within 1m…”The government recommends that you keep two metres away from people as a precaution or one metre when you can mitigate the risk by taking other precautions in this list.”
So they think there are doing the “right” thing…
My 16 yo son thinks masks are “badass”. He thinks he’s Deadpool or somebody. FFS!
Suspect it was staged. Round our way, I see the odd teen in a mask but the novelty seems to be wearing off already. Sometimes they look like they are worn in conjunction with hoodies etc to obscure the face and appear threatening, other times it seems like it’s just this week’s thing. Hopefully they will get bored with it.
Why are MPs coming out of the woodwork to hold the Government to account over this when it’s been nothing but silence from them since February?
Seen more MPs on TV the past few days than in the past few months.
Because they are brainwashed dicks.
No. They are victims of a relentless propaganda campaign. If medical personnel are bludgeoned into pointless mask wearing – what do you expect young people to do? There may be elders around, but there aren’t many ‘betters’.
1) For protection against facial recognition software.
2) They think “its the law” and dare not risk getting a DBS record which will blight their chances on the job market for life.
Maybe after the BLM crap, they think that wearing a muzzle is a sign of protest?
Because the efficacy of mask wearing is not on the curriculum.
Feeling despondent again today. I just can’t see an end to this madness, even with the Italian PM being questioned over decreeing a lockdown against the advice of scientists. It’s nowhere on mainstream media. We’re heading into the Autumn and Winter and I fear that things are going to get worse. We’re still under local lockdown in the North West and it looks like my church body is still giving the government the benefit of the doubt.
Vanessa Feltz covering for Jeremy Vine on R2 at 12 today will be asking “If anybody feels they can explain the current rules where they are, please get in touch”. Suspect there will be a fair number of “not strict enough” answers, but you never know.
Anybody want to brave the airwaves?
Unfortunately I have work to do over lunchtime, otherwise there’s nothing I’d rather do than spend my time being talked over and talked down to on national radio.
That’s her speciality, for sure. It really should be called Vanessa Talks Over…
She sided with a caller who shouted at someone in a petrol station for not wearing a mask on the show the other day…
Let’s see if a cool, concise sceptic gets on. I won’t suspend respiration while waiting.
I generally do to get an idea of the range of opinion out there though the presenter squews the result in the ‘right” direction
Vanessa does a splendid Cybil Faulty on the phone
“Mmmmm yes, oh I know, isn’t it just awful, yes I knoow.”
This is from our local paper:
SOUTHEND HOSPITAL has waved goodbye to its final Covid-19 patient, as the team ready themselves for the potential of a second wave.
The patient was discharged from Southend Hospital on Thursday, which means the hospital is no longer treating any Covid positive patients, although more could arrive in the coming days and weeks given the ever-changing nature of the pandemic.
So not even one CV-19 patient, let alone anyone actually dying from this devastating plague.
But the paper can’t help but mention that hospital staff are braced for a dreaded second wave.
Duck!
I am sure there is hardly anyone in any of the hospitals. But they are all on some kind of standby situation for the what will be none existent second wave. We’ve had protests, beaches, pubs open and no rush on the hospitals!!!
They have to write that sort of crap to sell the damn things. They have to have people coming back and they will always come back if there’s a bad news cycle because they’ll be hoping something’s got better. It’s like an addiction.
“ the ever-changing nature of the pandemic.”
Yes – in the sense of a constant downward curve towards irrelevance.
The narrative becomes more and more detached from reality.
When does a pandemic cease to be so. Or, once it’s been announced, it can never go away, so we’re constantly on guard for government reintroducing restrictions on scant evidence of a second, third, fourth, fifth wave. This is no way for an accountable democratic government to govern. The emergency legislation allowing our hopelessly incompetent ministers to just make up new laws under it ( without any debate or rational justification) must end now as THERE IS NO EMERGENCY other than the chaos this shameless half witted government has itself created. When are people going to wake up to the authoritarianism they’ve sleep walked into. This is why everyone on this site should be supporting the Dolan law suit. Neither our so called opposition Nor the MSM will do anything.
Governments have realised that it’s the almost perfect way to have virtually unlimited and unaccountable power, attention and glory. Why would they renounce that willingly, other than if they were men and women with moral standards
And we knew they weren’t before they were put in power!
Precisely- which is why judicial review challenging the whole thing seems to me the only way out – that or mass civil disobedience/ protest and just don’t see the latter. I’ve never been so disappointed with my fellow countrymen/ women.
I agree with both Julian and yourself. I am doubtful, however, of the basis for judicial review on this one – that’s the problem with such enabling legislation coupled with a docile parliament on holiday and a useless establishment-focused opposition.
Basically – the ‘democratic’ system in this country has been found out after years of smug self-satisfaction about Britannia. One odious porker sticks his snout in, and it crumbles.
As to ‘mass’ protests : there’s not much sign at present of the necessary critical mass, I’m afraid.
Been none in my large hospital for weeks yet it is still only doing emergency work in other fields.
Braced? ie remaining empty?
This is a sick joke:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/5-million-for-social-prescribing-to-tackle-the-impact-of-covid-19
Does the Government not realise that most of that sort of stuff is barely functioning in communities at the moment. Singing, specifically, is not allowed, and other community groups are struggling to restart with unmeetable Government guidelines and organisers and members so terrified by Government propaganda that they don’t feel safe anyway.
Gosh that makes me so angry. No one is allowed to meet up. Classes can’t run, walking groups can’t meet. You can’t see people’s faces as masks are mandatory everywhere. Art for Dementia is one of the things. No one is allowed to visit their family in care homes. Those care homes that have felt able to allow this have allowed 30 minute distanced meeting with Perspex screens and PPE. I am so livid.
Ministry of Self Contradiction again.
Plus – 5 million. Peanuts, Once again they are laughing at us!
…. support people to live the best life they can by accessing support in their local communities based on what matters to them.
Faces would be a good start!
…. supporting patients to use digital platforms to stay connected
In a nutshell.
…. GPs and social prescribing link workers have been working incredibly hard to support their patients through this challenging time.
Really?
Wtf is ‘social prescribing’ anyway?
A mental health professional told me last week that isolation (lockdown) was the worst thing for his patients many of whom have regressed.
Further his new caseload is enormous and he has no chance of denting it.
I hope they feel proud of themselves for what they have done to this little 5 year-old boy who has just lost his mum to breast cancer:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8634687/Britons-likely-die-cancer-15-years-ago-Covid-19.html
Anyone got an email address for Lord Sumption?
Someone needs to send him a link to Ivor Cummins’ excellent brief piece on the “casedemic”.
His weekend piece in the DM, posted below by Steve Martindale, is excellent as usual, but he does seem to believe, as MiriamW pointed out below, that “infections are rising”.
I’ve never been able to find his contact details
He is retired and doesn’t appear to be on social media
Maybe try writing to him c/o The Spectator? He’s done some stuff for them. Toby might know how to get in touch with him, or Hitchens, who always says he can be reached at the MoS, presumably by post.
Hitchens probably a good idea.
What’s going on here? Posted a couple of day ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywtHs6vc9Ew
Ready for Johnson, Hancock, Ferguson et al.
Ah, the dream….
I wish and a few others.
“You’ve just earned six months in the iso-cube, perp – aggravated coughing on a Judge.”
Not very good CGI. Jacinda and Dan probably got excited for a minute.
Friend sent me this video in reply:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrarmdexeV0
Just an early result from an update of an analysis about all-cause mortality that I’ve been working on.
The basis is the Winter-Spring ‘infection’ season for the past 27 years, and it originally stemmed from a wariness about the use of the term ‘excess deaths’, related to relatively short time-span averages, having noted that the last few years have been a period of notably *lower* mortality, even allowing for the odd ‘stronger’ year.
One of the obvious feature of the data was the clear balancing of mortality over *two* years, ending at the beginning of summer this year. It struck me that a major part of the mortality levels amongst the vulnerable in the April spike may well have been attributable to normal-end-of-life mortality catching up with a population that had actually had an extended year of life (judged against the average) because of previous low infection rates.
‘Smoothing the curve’ is a normal practice in separating signal from noise in a time series of data – and a five year moving average clearly shows the pattern of what looks like a sine wave in the quarter-century data, with an up-turning trend at the moment from a previous low.
But,… Read more »
Yes. What would an “excess death” spike graph look like in December-February during a bad flu season I wonder? Similar to our April-May one this year i.e. normal?
Can anyone find or produce one for 2017/18 UK flu season?
The ‘Florence Nightingale’ graph published on the CEBM website is quite good :
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-florence-nightingales-daigrams-for-deaths/
What was anomalous about this year was the sudden upsurge in April that you can see quite clearly. This, in its timing and severity does contrast with previous years – and is what induced panic.
However, the point is that it was short-lived, and didn’t crate mortality of plague-like proportions, despite the concentration of deaths in time and by age-group.
This is now obvious, and we are now looking at a non-epidemic event.
As an addendum – I have looked at the bar chart I’ve kept of the last five years’ weekly mortality. This is by calendar year rather than season.
The difference between 2018 and 2020 is that in 2018, the peaks were lower, but more sustained. Weeks 1-18 showed mortality generally above other years in the five-years captured, with about three peaks. This is different from the classic sharp epidemic rise and fall of this year. So the difference is indeed in the concentration of deaths against time.
Some (all?) excess deaths are probably real. They are all the non-covid deaths because they shut the hospitals down, and stopped treating people in care homes as well as they should. I think over the next five to ten years there will be an uptick in mortality, principally in cancer, but I’m sure in some over conditions too.
The lower mortality rates for the last ten years or so, are probably attributable to the success in postponing death from diabetes and other metabolic syndrome illnesses. These will have to balance back out at some point though too, as no-one lives forever.
very complicated and the fraudulent death certificates will make it a lot harder to work it out.
Well done on your analysis.
One point is that the term ‘excess deaths’ is a pretty meaningless term. As I’ve said elsewhere , it’s based on any old average that you pick, and any old regression that you choose to use.
Bluntly – mortality rates vary./ Big deal! You can judge relative severity according to the levels over a reasonable timescale (certainly more than 5 years) – but in the end, the baseline for ‘excess’ is a moveable feast, and you result is just the error in your model’s prediction.
CEBM has done some good work on the variability introduced by different regression models.
Fantastic analysis. There is in fact no excess mortality.
In light of this data why are some governments now attempting “elimination”, such as here in NZ and in Victoria, Australia? Research has also now shown that the IFR is the same as the flu and 60% of the population is immune!
In addition; this virus has shown that it is mutating, there are millions of cases world wide; a cure is a long way off and shutting a country permanently will recreate the middle ages?
The science is clearly being ignored by the media and all “science advisers” should be ceremonially stripped of their qualifications in front of their mothers…
Your last sentence is undeniably true. What is worse is that many ‘professionals’ seem immune to the realities uncovered by fairly basic science. The compliance of the personnel in the health services to this fictional narrative is absolutely bonkers – with GPs locking up their surgeries against a phantom.
If an ordinary Joe such as myself – OK with a bit of a background, but not difficult to acquire – can sit down with a normal amount of literacy, numeracy and a bog-standard spreadsheet and work out what’s going on, the question arises as to what the f. all those with specialist PhDs are doing coming up with total bollocks (apologies to the credible ones like Heneghan and Gupta who are earning their corn).
Is it any wonder that sane people are coming up with conspiracy explanations?
I think most of them know it’s BS but are either too afraid to speak out or are pursuing their own agendas
True of some, I think, Julian, and I think medical staff have indeed been threatened into compliance. But I reckon there are other mechanisms going on.
Obviously, there’s the influence of financing, but it’s the other psychologies that are interesting – the deliberately induced group-think; the fear of calling out the king’s nudity; the desire for a quiet life under the blanket etc. – and, of course, the sheer weight of propagandised ‘evidence’ that makes for doubting your own judgment.
Then there’s basic scientific illiteracy – even amongst scientists. By that I mean that the opening chapters of the book about looking critically at data and erecting and testing hypotheses have been forgotten in the rush to play with computational toys (like models!).
The woman with the teeth thinks Canute is someone who should be emulated…
Basically a large number of extremely vulnerable people crept over the line from last winter and covid finished them off in the spring. That is what happens in nature…
Bill Gates and Co. Desperate to Destroy Mercola.com
You’ve seen the brainwashing and social media surveillance – there has never been such a coordinated assortment of lies and censorship in the history of America as there is today. And now I’m in the firing line of their lies, fabrication and reckless disregard for truth in an attempt to put an end to me and this website. This is my rebuttal.
https://youtu.be/47W5cR8BB-E
.
Lies Exposed: CSPI’s Organized Attack Against Mercola
For decades, our mission has been to help you take control of your health. The Center for Science in the Public Interest (CSPI) has launched a comprehensive campaign to put an end to Mercola.com CSPI president Dr. Peter Lurie is a former FDA associate commissioner and avid supporter of Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease Lurie falsely asserts that I make COVID-19 claims for nutritional supplements sold in my online store. A complete review was made of all products in the Mercola Market and none of the CSPI accusations exists CSPI is bankrolled by billionaires and their corporate entities, such as the Rockefeller Foundation, the Rockefeller Family Fund and Bloomberg Philanthropies. It has also… Read more »
Victoria, have you thought of contacting the Weston Price Foundation? They have good lawyers.
Vaccine Transparency Manifesto
https://www.anhinternational.org/news/call-to-action-help-create-the-new-vaccine-narrative/
The 10-point VACCINE TRANSPARENCY Manifesto
https://www.anhinternational.org/resources/documents/uk-vaccine-transparency-manifesto/
Seems a pretty good framework.
Comprehensive RCTs over a sufficient timescale are essential – and that rules out any rushed vaccine.
Exposure to widespread peer review is also a sine qua non – and if we’re indemifying development, and paying up front that presupposes binning all ‘commercial confidentialiity’ nonsense.
That lot should be a reasonable stamp of the degree of good faith in this project.
… and I’ll believe it when I see it.
Excellent stuff.
I’ve already written to my MP, who refused to rule out voting for mandatory vaccinations. I think that tells you everything you need to know about her and about her party and our government.
Have also written to my doctor, who refused to answer other than saying they would do what the NHS advised them to do. Again that tells you where we are.
Have also written to the ethics body of the GMC, awaiting a response.
First time posting and haven’t read through all the messages on this or the other posts. But I was thinking about given the success of the dating forum, whether it would be possible (maybe I’ve missed it and it’s already there!) to have a forum for those looking for friendships with likeminded individuals (don’t think my husband would be happy with my turning up on the LS dating forum!). I know that there are the KBF forums, but maybe something more around social meetings for individuals and small groups to meet each other, not necessarily to organise anything but just to be able to ‘breathe and reboot’ with people who share like minded views.
Welcome. Maybe say where you are roughly and see if there are any takers? I am not aware there’s any DM capability though, which makes contact a bit awkward. Others may know more.
Best done via a forum. Easier to pm etc.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/16/report-calls-digital-coronavirus-passports-help-open-economy/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr#comment
“Report calls for ‘digital coronavirus passports’ to help open up the economy and beat travel curbs
Holders could scan a QR code to enter restaurants and sports venues, allowing businesses to reduce social distancing requirements”
“Digital ‘coronavirus-status passports’ could be used to scrap blanket lockdown measures and free up vast swathes of the economy, a new report, backed by former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt, has urged.
Under the proposals, people would be tested as often as every two weeks for coronavirus and keep their results in a app on their phone.
Passport holders would be able to scan an individual QR code to get into restaurants and sports venues, meaning businesses would be able to reduce social distancing requirements.
Those who test negative would also avoid the need for quarantining when crossing borders.
The report from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change advocates for the implementation of ‘digital’ passports as part of wider calls for mass testing.
In a foreword to the report, Mr Hunt writes: “We know there is a delicate balance to be struck between health and economic concerns.
“We also know that the two are inextricably linked: an economy in freefall causes immense physical and… Read more »
Exactly a predicted months ago (there was a good video by a track and trace whistleblower about where it was leading) along with covipass, the EU travel vaccination scheme a and ID2020.
India has been doing the QR code outside shops etc for a while.
Ahh but they forget to tell us that the Virus is basically gone, no more scary than the flu virus
CENSORED!!! You dangerous person – that’s fucked-it – sorry – I mean ‘fake news!
Will eventually result in a counter culture of people that won’t accept this.
I’m already part of that counter-culture.
Meetoo!
Yes the strange thing is so am I but I haven’t changed at all, the culture has. Six months a go I was a “relatively” orthodox person and now I’m a revolutionary but it’s still the same old me.
does this mean boris must quarantine every time he crosses a border henceforth?
I seem to recall them telling us boris has had covid.
and I also recall them pushing the mantra, “it can come back, at any time”
am I following their ‘logic’ here?
Radishes and garlic can ‘come back’ at any time – but I don’t put my life on hold and get vaccinated because of it.
blair was on R4 this morning advocating this test, test, test stuff. i wouldn’t believe one word that comes out of his mouth.
If tested every 2 weeks then would need say 32 million a week – I think the logistics of sourcing the raw materials for the tests (not sure what they need but is it available in these quantities?), manufacturing, distributing etc would prove unworkable.
I’m sure (hope) some techie will soon develop a way round this in any case.
Blair always had that ‘Mad Hatter’ look round the eyes.
Then he saw WMD everywhere.
Then he invaded Iraq (that went well, didn’t it?)
… and now he’s proposing a solution to the VMD ‘problem”
Let’s join up the dots ….
I’d like to inject him with something.
Sadly I expect at least 90% of the population will meekly accept this monitoring system (once these things are introduced and normalised they will never disappear). Many of us suspected this was heading towards ID2020 from day one as the globalist technology companies seem far more powerful than the majority of governments.
The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change would love to see the world population under the control of elite technocrats as Tony Blair probably fancies his chances of a senior UN position.
Bliar has been pushing for this for years. Control and power just…in…his grasp!
I was just listening to a Last American Vagabond show about this. Check out the biometric ID company CLEAR:
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-health-screening-digital-id-48f5ee5b-05c4-4b5e-8fda-4d2f59b946b0.html
This article was from back in May.
https://www.clearme.com/
Toby posted a link in his roundup middle of last week about the very nasty place this is taking us to.
“Health Passports, gateway to a new tyranny.”
Posting from an Android, can’t do links.
And all that stuff about microchipping people – I mean that’s Conspiracy theory bollox isn’t it? I mean – who in their right minds would want to get microchipped:?
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-05-21/now-im-a-cyborg-and-it-feels-very-cool-why-this-father-and-daughter-decided-to-get-microchip-implants
Me! Me! Me! I want one. I mean they are sooo coooolll!!!!!!!
5 years ago , I think in Sweden, they undertook an exercise in which people agreed to be microchipped, their reward ?
Easier access to a nightclub ffs.
Awful idea obviously, but pointless anyway since the incubation period is less than 2 weeks and people are infectious before symptoms begin.
Also, presumably they would have to be home tests, there is no way there would be official capacity to test everyone in the country every fortnight. Lots of testing of paw paws and goats to ensure a negative result, if people have got any sense.
Stupid beyond even the current heightened levels of stupidity.
Paw paws and goats come out positive
It would be an illogical idea even if there was an accurate test, and the disease was generally serious.
There isn’t one – so its totally bonkers
I’ve said this before the only thing I want to read about Bliar is his obituary.
How about a digital passport to show that you are not a war criminal? Scan a QR code at the entrance to a restaurant to show that you have never started an illegal war bringing death and destruction to millions.
Joking aside… Assuming this proposal takes off and everyone agrees to take part. That is, I will get tested regularly and follow the guidelines and I expect people who are tested positive to pay a penalty for that.
So what if the “testing” starts showing everyone is positive? Everyone is banned from public places, everyone has to self-isolate?
Apart from the obvious NWO dystopian message, I would not leave myself open to be gamed by these people is this way.
It’s positive/negative testing now but it will be vax or no vax next.
I
m sorry, the whole thing seems completely nuts to me. spending money on millions-billions? of tests that tell you nothing. testing for something that doesnt even exist. I really would like to wake up from this nightmare now please.Sounds like good business for the firms doing all the testing. At least until the vaccine comes along, at which point you will get a stamp saying you have been jabbed.
I have visited West Africa a couple of times and we had to get jabbed for Yellow Fever etc and present a yellow card proving vaccination in order to be allowed entry.
But somehow this seems like a step further than that?
Also, what about poor old fogeys like me who are not smart enough to have a smart phone – I have only just mastered the land line and cannot operate touch screens! Maybe there will be self exemption like with masks?
not just old fogeys who don`t have a smart phone. some of us middle aged ones choose not to.
You want to sign up for this every two weeks?!?
https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/covid-19-doctor-explains-how-the-nasal-swab-procedure-works-/5678373/
Spoke to some who was moved from Track’n’Trace to Isolation Ensurance ( not a typo, their word spelling unknown).
He spends his time phoning recent returnees to Ensure that they are correctly quarantined
Asked what if they lie?
“You can tell by the tone of their voice and put that in the report.:
The Conversation has on the whole been in the pro lockdown pro mask camp, however this article is worth a read. It attempts to square the circle of being pro mask with being green (apologies to Kermit) The cognative dissonance is real
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-face-masks-an-environmental-disaster-that-might-last-generations-144328
Someone posted a Facebook link here a week or so ago, where a woman was reading out an email she’d received from a care home worker, in which she detailed how residents were being treated. Their normal medication had been withdrawn. There were no GP or district nurse visits at all. No antibiotics were being prescribed for any infections at all. No residents were transferred to hospital if they fell ill, for any illness. Any resident who fell ill, from any cause, was put into end-of-life care, with food and liquids withheld, and they were put onto morphine for “pain relief” and to keep them sedated. Morphine suppresses breathing, and inevitably hastened their deaths.
The Facebook link doesn’t appear to be available any more, but if someone else has it, please post it.
Now, I have no way of knowing if this was true or not. The woman in the video was extremely upset at what she was reading, and was in tears, but that doesn’t prove anything.
And then I saw this report on Sky News Australia last night:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=O4N7kVXwO7g
Melbourne hospitals turning away aged care residents sick with COVID-19 is ‘appalling’
Elderly care home residents are being turned… Read more »
Shocking this is genocide
Doctor’s name ?
Something else that made me laugh (sharing in case anyone else needs to) – on sale on Amazon T-Shirts with the message “this shirt identifies as a mask” https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08FKBKD3Q
I like that!
I found this interesting:
On the CDC website it says:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Comorbidities
ComorbiditiesTable 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups. For data on comorbidities,
Open the data and you get (It’s not tabbed very well here, the X, U, R etc numbers are the WHO death classifications):
Number of Conditions Age GroupConditions Contributing to Deaths where COVID-19 was listed on the death certificate1ICD–10 codesAll ages0–24 years25–34 years35–44 years45–54 years55–64 years65–74 years75–84 years
Intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse eventsS00–T98, V01–X59, X60–X84, X85–Y09, Y10–Y36, Y40–Y89, U01–U034,40129991542665128241,0511,464
All other conditions and causes (residual) A00–A39, A42–B99, D00–E07, E15–E64, E70–E90, F00, F02, F04–G26, G31–H95, K00–K93, L00–M99, N00–N16, N20–N99, O00–O99, P00–P96, Q00–Q99, R00–R08, R09.0, R09.1, R09.3, R09.8, R10–R9968,8382146031,3193,6579,13315,89217,992
Hopefully the screenshot of they page is more helpful but basically over 4000 + over 68 000 people listed as dying with/from covid-19 actually died from… Read more »
100% Organic, Biodegradable and Vegan Facemasks – picture is hilarious https://www.facebook.com/lukepaulscottofficial/posts/10100874897527872
I like it!!!!! What a great idea to spoof face coverings. My thoughts went done another line of finding the dirtiest, most horrible looking things to turn up to places in!!!!
Blood stained would be good…
Scroll down here for some hilarious ideas https://masks4all.co/facts/ scroll to the bottom for the ? about whether they will make you look weak. So funny and I can only assume they think their readers are morons.
Scroll down here for some hilarious ideas https://masks4all.co/facts/ scroll to the bottom for the ? about whether they will make you look weak. So funny and I can only assume they think their readers are morons.
Can we have edible facemasks next please. Yum!
In the way that Sweden was an interesting test case so will New Zealand. They’ve been shut down, locked up, masked, annointed by a living Saint. They’ve had time to prepare,know about treatment, all the advantages, so will the virus still penetrate their defences? It will be interesting to watch. If it does it will be an even bigger argument against full lockdowns than Sweden, or will they just say the people weren’t rigorous enough?
They’ll say the people flouted the lockdown rules and its all their own fault. They’ll have to stay in lockdown forever…..
Exactly, there is literally no end game to their ‘zero covid’ approach, I can only assume Jacinda knows this.
It means never ending testing & quarantining of _all_ arrivals forever, alongside the mandatory vaccination of their entire population – again, as with all government, unless they admit at some point it’s not such an issue anymore and can just re-open.
They have set the bar for lockdowns extremely low. If they stick to that, their country will impoverish itself dramatically.
Isn’t New Zealand the place where a lot of megarich bought bug out ranches nd properties?
Sure it was/is.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2018-rich-new-zealand-doomsday-preppers/
Don’t want it sullied and stunk up with normal poor people do we?
Just saying.
What’s the betting the new rules for hairdressers were just made up because Boris doesn’t like them?
Was there some recent research that concluded mask wearing in shops reduced the spread of Covid infection by 5%?
On that basis I’ve concluded it takes more than 400 years of mask wearing to save a single life.
I’ll present my back of an envelope calculations if I anyone can send me a link to the “5%” research conclusion I think I remember reading about.
Wouldn’t that also mean that 400 people wearing them for 1 year would save 1 life. Can’t even see them being as effective as that.
400 people wearing a mask when shopping for a year I put down as only 20,800 hours -( i.e. one hour a week x 400) – so that’s less than three years of mask wearing.
There’s a Norwegian study that concluded that, at current prevalence, 200,000 people would need to wear a mask to stop a single transmission (and even then, the study said something like “we have no idea how effective masks are, if at all, but let’s say they’re 40% effective for the sake of argument”.
Given an IFR of ~0.25%, by my calculations that means that 800,000,000 people would need to wear a mask to save a single life.
Also, based on the amount of mask fiddling I’ve seen, if the virus was actually rife I’m sure that mask wearing wearing would also cause some cases of transmission through contact.
Yep, people are fiddling with a snot soaked rag, then touching things that you are going to buy. Or even worse, they are bringing out your food… But it’s ok, cos it’s a government mandate – the same one that says wear a face covering in banks, building socs and post offices.
“Despite millions of people being told to use face masks, little guidance has been given on how to dispose of or recycle them safely. And as countries begin to lift lockdown restrictions, billions of masks will be needed each month globally. Without better disposal practices, an environmental disaster is looming.
The majority of masks are manufactured from long-lasting plastic materials, and if discarded can persist in the environment for decades to hundreds of years. This means they can have a number of impacts on the environment and people.
Initially, discarded masks may risk spreading coronavirus to waste collectors, litter pickers or members of the public who first come across the litter. We know that in certain conditions, the virus can survive on a plastic surgical mask for seven days.”
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-face-masks-an-environmental-disaster-that-might-last-generations-144328
Discarded masks will become the new plastic bags threat to our planet.
Not according to VP Biden, mandatory muzzles will save 40k lives in 3 months. Who am I to dispute such expert wisdom?
The moon is made of green cheese, says Biden the hair sniffer.
… and the Norwegians acted on the logic and binned the idea of general mask usage and testing.
😂😂😂😂😂
There is a recent (short) video that quoted figures of how few lives could be optimistically saved by face covering wearing:
“Carl Heneghan – On Masks” – recent commentary on mask research.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNI2ocgosgA
If they reduce transmission by 5% then R0 goes from (say) 3 to 2.85. This drops HIT from 0.67 to 0.649 which is about a million infections or a couple of thousand lives saved (using an IFR of 0.2%).
The problem is we have to wear the masks forever or they just die when we take them off.
And the other small problem is we already reached that higher HIT anyway, so those 2000 people are already dead.
I’m assuming masks reduce all transmission by 5%. I doubt the real number is anything like that high.
It’s hard to quantify just how little they are likely to help, given no one on here is likely a super statistician, but I tried explaining how stupid it is with the following sequence
There is a 0.05% chance _at most_ (likely a lot less in most areas in UK) that I have the virus. The chances of me transmitting it whilst pre-symptomatic depend upon my happening to go close enough to someone in that short time frame and breath/cough/sneeze all over them or something they touch (I use pre-symptomatic as if i’m ill, im not going shops anyway) I don’t know the % chance of this, but they would be tiny. In the extremely unlikely event of the above 2 things coming to pass, there is then just a 0.1-0.4% chance (ifr range) that said person would die. The chances of onward transmission then causing a death etc are so small its not even worth entertaining this straw man argument they use. We can not live our lives by chaos theory. I can’t actually comprehend just how small the chances of the above sequence of events happening are, but given that there is several studies to show that cloth… Read more »
Sorry folks but the above discussion is pointless and time-wasting. There is no virus to transmit any more. Masks are about control not safety.
Yep. How do you get all the ‘trouble makers’ to wear a badge marking themselves out? You can’t.
But if you get all the sheep to wear a badge, the rest will stand out. Easy.
The sheep are already wearing a badge. It’s called a mask. They will not want to listen to numbers, however persuasive. I don’t wear a mask and I’m still ambivalent about exemption badges. I have gone without but currently wear one to advertise how easy it is to become exempt.
There are no easy answers here but I think calculations on how effective masks are/aren’t are pointless because they are predicated on everyone having a virus to transmit which they haven’t.
Masks make you stupid and fearful – how do we get that across?
Precisely, just trying to find a way to get that across to people in way that is comprehensive with numbers. My stating the numbers shows exactly what you said, it’s just how to say it succinctly enough that people hear it. Laying it out like I had doesnt work as they’ve switched off the moment they hear the first ‘0.05%’.
It is inarguable that they are not about safety, but to get people to stick about long enough to hear why is the hard part.
After what you’ve written I don’t think my back of an envelope calculations are much needed. Mask wearing simply promotes anxiety, especially when made mandatory, the negative effects of which out weigh any possible benefits.
When I see a masked person they are telling me they are anti social and consider me a biohazard.
“There is a 0.05% chance _at most_ (likely a lot less in most areas in UK) that I have the virus.”
Actually that’s about the odds of having an RNA strand that might relate to the virus.
You then shrink the odds after considering :
This whole thing is such an incredible nonsense.
I mean – I’m one of those who has enough conditions to warrant genuine caution about getting this bloody virus. But I’m not daft enough to go around strangling my life on the basis of microscopic odds like this.
From 2007 but relevant today:
https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/22/health/22whoop.html
Article is called “Faith in Quick Test Leads to Epidemic That Wasn’t” which sound familiar.
Conclusion once culture had been grown and no trace of the whooping cough found although there were PCR tests that showed positive:
“Dr. Cathy A. Petti, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Utah, said the story had one clear lesson.
“The big message is that every lab is vulnerable to having false positives,” Dr. Petti said. “No single test result is absolute and that is even more important with a test result based on P.C.R.”
And the only reason that panic was brought to an end was the comparison of the PCR tests against the gold standard test for whooping cough.
And for C-19/Covid, the “gold standard” test is… the PCR test! You couldn’t make it up – although I suspect that they have. All the way through.
Just heard Tony Blair on radio4 (what a way to start your week!), his institute has just published a paper calling for testing to be ramped up to massive proportions so that everyone can be tested all the time and carry a health card. Why do people seem to have such a massive faith in ‘the test’?
It is a shame because PCR testing used well and used properly with skill is extremely useful and has undoubtedly saved lives in some areas. In my view we should scale back testing, focus it on hospitals, care homes and vulnerable people and do those tests really well in conjunction with a clinical assessment.
Doing mass PCR tests is like trying to produce a Rolls Royce on the mini production line!
In my view we should stop testing altogether!
As someone who works in a diagnostic field that regularly employs PCR testing, I’m concerned that the necessary reagents / materials required will become so scarce that we have to limit the use of PCR in situations where it’s actually beneficial.
It just encourages the power mad numpties.
Can’t quite read the article – need to create an account, but I love the fact that the internet contains stuff from long before the Covid censorship started. This article would probably not be written in the same way today, if at all, because it contains actual, unbiased information that might be considered “dangerous”.
There’s a great write up of it here:
https://blog.plan99.net/pseudo-epidemics-7603b2da839
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/16/report-calls-digital-coronavirus-passports-help-open-economy/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr#comment
Telegraph version of the same news item.
That story sits very well next to the 2009/10 H1N1 “casedemic” that Ivor Cummins highlighted in his recent brief piece. I’m pretty sure you’ve seen it already but I’ll put the link here again just in case any readers haven’t, because it’s a really good, imo important and concise (less than 10 mins) summary of what’s going on at the moment with quarantines, local lockdowns and general “second wave” bollocks.
Crucial Viewing – to truly understand our current Viral Issue #Casedemic
One of our puffins over at Going Postal commented this morning about the folk returning from France being permitted to go to the supermarket before being forced into 14day isolation. Plus, not being allowed to walk their pets. His smart observation was “so the masks don’t work then?”.
Bang… straight, and to the point. Why quarantine people when you can just shove them into a mask and let them get on with their daily lives?
was this in the uk?
It’s in the Telegraph.
I think quarantined people can go shopping, they can certainly go home by public transport. If their arrival is worrisome why aren’t they tested on arrival or even have their temperatures taken ?
Agreed if this was the serious public health issue they are portraying it as, the returners would be tested and isolated. Not allowed to make their way home on public transport stopping off at Sainsbury’s on the way.
why can’t people see that NONE of the rules make sense? Face masks made out of whatever cloth you can find in your arts and crafts basket, a virus that discriminates between eating in and take always, countries that are safe one day and mysteriously dangerous a day later. An illness that you need to be tested for to know if you have it.
and if they can see it, why aren’t they raging?
Also, if it was that bad, they wouldn’t give people a few days to rush home in time to avoid quarantine (with plenty of mixing in the airport’s and stations thrown in for good measure).
I’m convinced the wakamole on foreign countries is to make the idea of booking a holiday abroad untenable.
Thus forcing the greatest number of us out of the sky without having to use the law or taxes
This was not part of ‘the plan’, it is the Greta crowd persuing their agenda on the back of johnsons reckless lockdown.
It’s quite clever really since will be making the decision to avoid air travel ourselves.
Because they are making it up as they go along. Why people cannot see the stupidity of these rules is a mystery.
https://twitter.com/PhaatBoyz/status/1295231862307270656/photo/1
One of the best flowchart to use lockdown
Quality
Does anyone understand how medical exemptions work for mask wearing?
My wife tried to get a GP letter to avoid her wearing a mask at work (as a hairdresser) but he refused. I’ve done a bit of research and it seems like you can self certify yourself as exempt but its not clear if this applies to staff who have been instructed to wear masks or just the public. Anyone been in a similar situation?
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own
The exemptions are broad and the only process is self certification. Various lanyards and badges are available (including one available to print off on the link above) but the guidance specifically stated that you don’t have to wear one and that you shouldn’t be challenged. GPs have been specifically told not to waste their time writing exemption letters as they aren’t needed.
It’s a bit more complicated for your wife, as this is about her employer. If the GP won’t provide anything, then the only option will be to discuss it with her boss, show them the government exemption rules and explain that she is exempt (it may help to explain which of the exemptions apply, but she definitely doesn’t have to, or to discuss any medical conditions.
Ultimately it’s up to the employer. There may be various legal options if they don’t agree, but my guess is your wife would prefer not to go down that route.
If a risk assessment identifies that PPE is required then an employer is obliged to provide it under Health and Safety at Work legislation.
An employee also has a duty of care to ensure the health and safety of themselves, other employees and visitors to the site.
If PPE is provided then it should (not must) be worn, an employee is not required to wear PPE, but if they don’t and something happens then they cannot hold their employers responsible (on your own head be it).
The big question is “Are masks classed as PPE?
Copied and pasted from gov.uk own website on face coverings
Face coverings are not classified as PPE (personal protective equipment) which is used in a limited number of settings to protect wearers against hazards and risks, such as surgical masks or respirators used in medical and industrial settings.
.
Thanks, to be honest I was amazed you could self certify, this means literally anybody can get away with not wearing a mask – how on earth can police fine anyone?
It’s unclear when it’s required for an employee. I see what your saying about PPE but this mask business is claimed to protect others not yourself so not sure if being happy to accept the risk to yourself would be judged as reasonable.
It’s still very unclear if the self exemption just applies to public or employees. I’ve searched and can’t find anything that explicitly says so.
“ how on earth can police fine anyone?”
Generally speaking, they can’t. Only 33 fines have been issued and the assumption is that those 33 people must have been deliberately bolshy with the officer involved.
As for the employee question – the law doesn’t require any employee to wear a mask; it’s the employer who is making that decision.
Thanks Matt,
The latest government regulations for hairdressers states:
‘A Type II face mask should be worn with the visor. Type II face masks are not PPE but will provide a physical barrier to minimise contamination of the mouth and nose when used correctly.’
Do you think this leaves it up to the employer (as it says ‘should’) or is this a non-optional regulation that’s is enforceable by law?
To be honest I very much doubt her employer will know the answer to the above question either.
I’m not really familiar with the ‘rules’ and in particular I’m not sure whether this piece comes under regulations or “guidance”. An awful lot of the ‘rules’ we’re supposed to live our lives by are the latter. If it’s guidance, then it truly is up to the employer. If it’s legislation, the I see no reason why the 2010 Equality Act wouldn’t apply, meaning that if your wife has a reason she can’t wear the equipment, then she should not be forced to.
Anthony’s quote is taken from the Guidance document.
There you go then. Employer’s decision. Though Anthony’s wife will probably need to explain that it is in fact only guidance. The distinction is deliberately blurred in people’s minds I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve had to correct someone who has claimed something is the law.
You beat me to it while I was typing, Matt. They bring out ‘guidance’, that goes in the paper, and into the ears of the great unwashed, then a few days later, they bring out the law (if any), which only covers a fraction of the guidance stuff. They’re not daft.
Anthony, it is guidance only. Your biggest problem would likely be local authorities being heavy handed. There is a twitter story about a hairdresser called VickyInTheUK, who stood up to her local Hitlers. She is carrying on maskless and free. Of course, if your boss is being difficult, that brings its own problems.
Posted earlier about a BTP officer who has issued just one fine to a bloke who spoke to him like a complete knob.
Yep. As far as I can see, in the vanishingly unlikely circumstance where you’re approach by a police officer, there are two conversations you can have:
“Excuse me sir, you should be wearing a mask.”
“I can’t, Officer, I’m exempt.”
“Ah, that’s fine, sir. Carry on. Have a lovely day.”
Or
“Excuse me sir, you should be wearing a mask.”
“Screw you, you fascist pig. You’ll never take me alive!”
“Here’s a fixed penalty notice, sir”
That’s it, Matt. “I’m exempt” is all you need. They are not empowered to quiz you about detail. If you refuse, you are breaking the law and you are a bloody fool. Which is errr, what you just said!
🤣🤣🤣
You’ve summed it up nicely there Matt 👍🏻
Attitude is indeed the driver for how a surprisingly large proportion of interactions with police turn out. When I was young I used to drink and drive and speed quite a lot (not particularly dangerously, but often illegally, or borderline illegal) and my philosophy when pulled over was if I wanted to avoid a confrontation and a ticket, “be obsequious”, otherwise, enjoy the confrontation and accept the lumps that come with it. Worked quite a lot of the time, in both directions.
The only ticket I ever got for not wearing a seatbelt was when I basically chose to adopt your latter model and got the inevitable (and expected) result.
Experience shows that this is a large part of the explanation of supposedly racist policing interactions as well, though clearly not all by any means.
I had a good laugh at that!
Just had a quick look at the lawnotfiction (?) pdf, says your wife is covered by Disability Act 2020 in respect of not wearing protective clothing.
Perhaps someone cleverer tha I can point Anthony in their direction.
Thanks, I’ll check this out.
http://laworfiction.com/2020/07/do-employees-have-to-wear-masks/
“I was amazed you could self certify.”
You and most of the rest of the population, Anthony. That’s the big problem. I’ve tried to pass this message on to everyone I can.
”This means literally anybody can get away with not wearing a mask”
Exactly! What we’ve all been saying on here for ages.
”How on earth can police fine anyone?”
With the greatest of difficulty.
Yep. I was telling a friend exactly this yesterday and that he could print an exemption note from the Gov.UK website.
I wouldn’t use theirs, you’ll be put on the list of Subversives, first to go to the Camps.
(Spooks, series 5. Harry gets detained with a Temporary Detention Order
“There is no such thing as a TDO”
Sadly for Harry there was and off he got took).
Yes. Nobody I have spoken to has actually looked at the gov.uk website, or questioned what is guidance and what is law.
Unless you talk to them ‘like a complete knob’ (see just below).
There is this http://www.laworfiction.com/2020/07/time-to-blow-the-whistle-on-shops/#comments but it may not apply to hairdressers where there is specific guidance .
Note also the disclaimer “Warning: Law and circumstances can change very quickly. Please note the date of publication of any blog post and check for any updates on the issues addressed. In any event, we do not condone or encourage breaching the law and neither the above nor any information posted on this website constitutes legal advice. It must not be relied upon as such and specialist legal advice should be taken in relation to specific circumstances. Please read our disclaimer.”
Thanks all, looks like it’s gonna be up to her employer who, in all fairness, seems to be quite reasonable about the whole situation. I know a lot of the staff are struggling and many have been removing either the mask or shield half way through the day without causing any problems with management or clients.
When there isn’t an home grown Covid story to worry about it seems the BBC will go abroad to find one if the last couple of days are anything to go by.
Yesterday (or was it the day before) Ireland’s highest number of Covid cases since mid May was trumpeted. Today it was some milestone figures in India.
I’m waiting a day or two to make some comment, until some more figures come in, about the number of Covid cases in Ireland.
Coincides with introducing mandatory masks again 😂 starting to be quite the pattern with that…
BBC R4 news 8am today.
Lead Covid story, India Covid deaths now 50,000 3rd highest in the world !
Failed to mention India’s population of
1.3 Billion.
Deaths in India have never reached 1 death/million per day. Naturally it’s condensed in a few cities & may spread about wider yet but it doesn’t look like it’s going to take off, it’s been trickling along at the same rate for months.
There was some nonsense on the BBC red button news about people going a bit wild in a pub in Ireland, somebody standing on the bar and pouring beer into people’s mouths. Normally it wouldn’t even make the local papers.