Boris Weighs Up “Nuclear” Options
There’s a story by Tim Shipman in the Sunday Times today that I’m struggling to understand. He reports that last Wednesday at 4pm the Prime Minister convened a war-gaming exercise in which they considered various responses to different “second wave” scenarios.
For an hour they mapped out options for the next few months. Simon Case, head of the COVID-19 taskforce, led a discussion of three fictional but realistic scenarios that reflected Whitehall’s fears about what could happen next. “There were three whiteboards in different corners of the room,” one of those present said.
In their tabletop war game, Johnson and Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, first discussed an outbreak in northwestern England, then an outbreak in London and finally a general increase in infections nationally.
Under the first scenario, local authorities in the northwest saw a persistent rise in infections and the measures taken by councils failed to stem the tide. Johnson and Sunak agreed that the first lever pulled should be additional restrictions on household interactions. “There must be quick, decisive action,” Johnson said.
That evening, the fictional scenario became reality as the prime minister was presented with Office for National Statistics data showing a 66% rise in infections in a fortnight, with increases in Blackburn, Bradford and Manchester.
Where does that 66% figure come from? The ONS infection survey data released on July 31st showed an increase in the number of people testing positive over the past two weeks of just five. In the period June 29th to July 12th, 31,542 people were given a nose and throat swab, of whom 19 tested positive. In the period July 13th to July 26th, 28,325 people were swabbed, of whom 24 tested positive. So an increase of ~0.06% to ~0.085% in the unweighted sample. In the ONS table below, when weightings have been applied, this shows up as an increase in the percentage of the infected population in England of 0.05% to 0.09%. Is that the figure Tim Shipman’s referring to? If so, it’s based on an increase in the number of people testing positive of precisely five.
What about the claim that infections have increased in Blackburn, Bradford and Manchester? In section three of the ONS infection survey, headed “Regional Analysis”, there is the following caveat:
There is not enough evidence to say there are differences in the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in different regions of England.
Indeed, the daily average for the percentage of the population estimated to be infected in the North West remained constant at 0.05% from June 15th to July 26th. In the same period in London, by contrast, it increased from 0.10% to 0.14%. So why local lockdowns in the North West but not in London?
In Shipman’s article, he goes on to say:
Wednesday’s war game also featured a sobering session on what might happen if such an approach was needed in London, where the number of cases is rising, though not as fast as in the northwest.
Er, no. As we’ve seen, the number of cases isn’t rising at all in the North West and is estimated to be rising a bit in London. (Was one of the five new cases in London?) So what does Boris intend to do if the number of cases in London continues to rise? Here’s where Shipman’s article makes for alarming reading.
In the war game, Johnson and Sunak agreed that in the event of a London outbreak, it might be necessary to scrap the entire “green list” of countries exempt from quarantine, meaning all arrivals would have to self-isolate for 14 days. “We’d need quick guillotine decisions,” one of those present said.
In March, the Prime Minister considered, and rejected, plans to lock down the capital harder than the rest of the country. But in Wednesday’s war game he agreed that if infections rose significantly, overnight stays in London would be banned, Londoners could be subject to stay-at-home orders, and close-contact services such as hairdressers would close. “The challenge in London is how quickly people move around on the trains and Tube,” a source said. “It would potentially spread much quicker than in other areas so you’d have to be quicker on the regional hammer in London.”
Most controversially, the ministers concluded that people would be advised not to travel in and out of the capital, raising the prospect of restrictions on those inside the M25. “That would be the border point,” an insider said.
God help the nine million people who live in London. A mad, hammer-wielding maniac has taken up residence in Downing Street and will “whack” the capital if a handful of more people start testing positive for the virus, regardless of the damage he’ll do to public health and the economy.
In the third scenario, which Whitehall officials called the “frog boiling” scenario, the prevalence of the virus increases gradually but inexorably across the entire country, with local lockdowns failing to snuff out fires. The response here, apparently, would be to extend the “shielding” policy to encompass everyone over 65!
Johnson sanctioned work to go ahead on plans for “enhanced shielding”, which would see the number of people judged clinically vulnerable and urged to stay at home increased from the current total of 2.2 million to “a much wider group”.
Yesterday, more than two million vulnerable people were released from shielding in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
This “segmentation approach” would see many more people receive a tailored letter in September or October, “before it gets cold”, spelling out their risk factors. Health issues and age would be taken into account – an approach that is likely to mean that a large number of people aged between 50 and 70 would be urged to stay out of harm’s way. Personalised advice is possible because scientists have better evidence about which factors most effect whether people survive COVID-19.
“At the moment, shielding is binary, you’re either on this list or off it,” said one of those familiar with the thinking. “But we know there isn’t a simple cut-off at age 70. People would get a personalised risk assessment. The risk rises after 50, quite gently to start with, and then accelerates after age 70.”
It is likely that this would mean people being put in tiered risk levels but would be controversial because it could be depicted as quarantine by age. Most of those affected, if the shielding plans are adopted, are likely to be over 65.
Can’t the over-65s just carry crucifixes and cloves of garlic to ward off the vampiric virus? I’m sure that would result in a far lower loss of life than imprisoning them in their homes.
Postcard From Melbourne
And if you want a glimpse of the future, a reader has written a “Postcard From Melbourne“, where a draconian second lockdown has been imposed by the Premier of Victoria Daniel Andrews after a minor uptick in infections. It’s not pretty.
Lockdown 2.0 was quickly imposed, a few postcode areas first then all of metropolitan Melbourne. A concern to anyone who values their liberty had to be the total lockdown of a number of housing commission apartment blocks with zero notice. By the time the Dear Leader had finished his announcement on TV that no one would be allowed to leave these tower blocks there were already hundreds of police surrounding them forcibly stopping anyone from leaving. Considering in ‘normal’ times they can’t rustle up two cops to attend burglaries, night-time home invasions or muggings etc. they were able to find 500 of them to police this hard lockdown with no trouble at all.
Of course the lockdown has had little effect so next was mandatory face nappies for all when you’re outside your house with $200 fines gleefully being handed out by the Vicstapo. Before that has even had any chance to have an effect Prof Sutton and Comrade Andrews are informing us that ‘Stage 4’ Lockdown will have to be implemented or the world will end. Still no concrete details but from leaks in the news sites it will be like NZ, everything barring supermarkets and essential services closed, no travel more than 5km from home, one occupant from a house allowed to go shopping and a huge increase in police patrols using numberplate recognition cameras to catch and fine anyone not complying with this madness.
I’ve given up trying to have an adult discussion with anyone here. I know of only two people who are lockdown sceptics like me. Every single other person you speak to is a complete COVID Lockdown fanatic who will not contemplate any other view. It’s quite unsettling. Aussies love to make out they are this rough, tough, she’ll be right, bunch of rebels when in reality they are a nation of supine, compliant rule followers who love nothing more than ‘dobbing in’ someone else for not following the most petty of rules and regulations. They are such a nation of bedwetters someone has actually started manufacturing home wares with portraits of the Victorian Chief Health Officer, Health Minister and State Premier – bizarre and creepy!!
Worth reading in full.
No “Second Wave” in Western Europe, Says Theoretical Physicist
Today I’m publishing a third update in the “Canaries in the Mine” series produced by Dr Rudolph Kalveks. Dr Kalveks, who has a PhD in theoretical physics, has used a standard tool in epidemiology – the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered/Resolved or (“SIR”) model – to analyse the lifecycle of the virus in different regions. In his first article in the series, he concluded that in Europe and America the pandemic was approaching the end of its life and a “second wave” was unlikely. He looked at the data again in the second article in the series and saw nothing to change his mind, and did the same in the third, concluding that while the fatalities might not have reached a ceiling in some US states they had in Western Europe. That’s also what the data indicate in his fourth analysis, published today.
The curves show that when the penetration of coronavirus in a country reaches a ceiling, typically represented by a fatality rate below 0.1% of its population, its spread slows to a standstill, with few further fatalities arising. This certainly appears to have been the case in mainland Western Europe, where the average daily death rates from the coronavirus have now declined to single figures (in terms of individuals) in every country, notwithstanding the relaxation of many of the lockdown restrictions imposed early during the pandemic. The “Canaries” are telling us empirically that Western Europe has reached or is close to herd immunity. Prof. Gupta at Oxford and other epidemiologists explain this in terms of the immune mechanisms at work in addition to antibodies, such as T-cells.
Worth reading in full. You can see all four analyses on the right-hand side as sub-pages of “How Reliable is Imperial College’s Modelling?”
Thousands of Protestors Join Anti-Lockdown March in Berlin
Great to see so many people turn out for an anti-lockdown protest in Berlin yesterday. A crowd of people, many not wearing masks, marched from the Brandenburg Gate on Saturday ahead of a rally in Tiergarten park. The demonstration was called “The end of the pandemic: freedom day”. Euronews has more.
Protesters held up placards promoting conspiracy theories such as “Corona, false alarm”, and there were chants of “we’re here and we’re loud, because we are being robbed of our freedom”.
Placards also read “we are being forced to wear a muzzle” and “natural defence instead of vaccination”.
According to the BBC, which also reported on the march, over 15,000 people turned out (although some local observers put it at 20,000).
The mood is peaceful but hardly anyone is wearing a face-covering or observing the required social distancing, our correspondent says.
“Our demand is to go back to democracy. Away with these laws that have been imposed on us, away with the masks that make us slaves,” said one woman.
Restrictions in Germany include the wearing of face-coverings in shops and on public transport, social distancing rules and hygiene requirements apply throughout the country. Mandatory testing has been introduced for holidaymakers returning from high-risk areas.
Germany has had more than 210,000 cases of coronavirus and more than 9,000 related deaths since the pandemic began.
What the BBC neglects to mention is that 9,000 deaths is less than half of the German death toll for seasonal flu in 2017-18.
The mainstream German papers have reacted to the demo in a typically hostile way. The German-speaking reader of Lockdown Sceptics who has scanned the German papers for us before has had a look.
German papers are highly critical of the demonstrators. The Frankfurter Allgemeine describes the people attending as “corona deniers” who, with their refusal to wear masks and adhere to social distancing rules (hardly surprising given they were protesting against lockdown regulations) are described – at best – as misfits endangering the health of others. At worst they are linked to neo-Nazi groups whose support for the demo is mentioned in several reports and helps to underscore the sense that people demonstrating to retain basic freedoms are extremists. Tarring lockdown scepticism with right-wing extremism has always been a common and obviously emotive thread in German reporting.
Bild is similarly relentlessly critical, painting the protesters as “corona deniers”, “conspiracy theorists” and “right-wing extremists”. Reading these reports you’d conclude that no moderate sceptics bothered turning up. The report is immediately followed by a headline shrieking that there are 15 new cases in Hamburg. Hamburg has a population of 1.9 million.
The Sueddeutsche reports on subsequent arrests of protesters, and features a quote from the Justice minister, Christine Lambrecht. “The freedom to demonstrate is an important right, underpinning democracy,” she begins hopefully. But she then shows scant regard for this right: “However, demonstrators should adhere to regulations that exist to protect public health, and I have no sympathy for anyone who so self-importantly ignores them.”
Cornwall Residents “Terrified” of Tourists
There was a depressing story in the Independent yesterday about how local residents in Cornwall are reacting with horror to the influx of “staycation” tourists.
Residents in Cornwall have expressed dismay at overcrowding due to an influx of domestic tourists on so-called staycation in the UK.
One local in Wadebridge said on Facebook that some tourists were not socially distancing because they “feel safe down here”.
“My shielding is paused from today but I’m too scared to go out,” she said. “Tried walking into town a couple of times but no social distancing at all. I was constantly doubling back, leaping out of the way and panicking just to keep my distance from the hoards. It’s horrifying.”
Another, in St Ives, said she was “too scared” to go food shopping because of the crowds and had told her children not to visit the main shopping street or the harbour seafront.
This was “the general consensus among friends,” holiday lettings manager Claire Harris told the BBC.
I was thinking of holidaying in Cornwall this year, having been many times before and loved it. But if the locals really are leaping out of the way at the sight of any tourists, I’m glad I didn’t.
The Mail has the same story. Apparently, some locals have taken to calling Cornwall “Benidorm on steroids”, while local “Marshalls” are patrolling the streets, making sure social distancing is being observed.
A Catholic Writes
A reader who recently converted to Catholicism has got in touch to tell me about his experience of attending Mass again for the first time in months. It wasn’t pleasant.
I am writing to you to share my experience of returning to Mass recently. As I had only become a Catholic last November you can imagine how much I was looking forward to returning to Mass a few weeks ago. However, my joy quickly turned to sadness. At the door of the church I was greeted by a “steward” who told me I had to put on a mask and then escorted me to my seat. Talking to other people was not allowed before or after the mass. Worst of all, the stewards were all donning masks, visors, surgical gowns and gloves. It made the experience more like an appointment at the dentist than worship! Oh, and I nearly forgot to say that no singing was allowed and when the priest came to distribute the host he silently dropped it into my hands. The service was shortened to 30 minutes. Evidently a full hour Mass might be deadly even though I could go and sit with a friend in the pub for hours safely! I left the service deflated and pondering whether to go again until these ridiculous restrictions are lifted. Perhaps I should start a catholic resistance movement called Massked Resistance.
Round-Up
- ‘The Not-So Great Cover Up‘ – David Lewin makes the case against face nappies in The Reprobate
- ‘Customer numbers fall after compulsory face masks were introduced in shops, figures reveal‘ – Mail reports that the introduction of mandatory face nappies has meant fewer people going shopping, not more
- ‘Senior Tory MP is arrested on suspicion of rape‘ – An ex-minister was arrested yesterday on suspicion of having raped a House of Commons researcher
- ‘Death of free speech in the US‘ – Caroline Graham in The Mail On Sunday reports on the assault on free speech in American newsrooms, while Andrew Roberts discusses a new Cato Institute survey that reveals that 62% of Americans are too frightened to speak their minds
- ‘The Government’s National Panic Service is being used to keep us in a condition of perpetual alarm about coronavirus‘ – Peter Hitchens’s column in The Mail On Sunday is always worth reading
- ‘Track and trace fails in 50% of “easiest” cases‘ – More evidence that Matt Hancock’s £10 billion ‘track and trace’ programme isn’t fit for purpose
- ‘Schools’ plan B for autumn Covid spike: online lessons for all‘ – Alarming report in The Sunday Times saying schools are preparing for more online lessons from September
- ‘LifeSite petition encouraging break-up of Big Tech goes viral‘ – An American website has started a petition urging the US Government to break up Big Tech to end censorship
- ‘Britain’s ship of fools sails on, rudderless amid the Covid seas‘ – Strong column by Jeremy Warner in The Sunday Telegraph
- ‘This is no time for a midlife crisis Boris!‘ – Dan Hodges thinks the explanation for the Prime Minister’s increasingly bizarre leadership style is that he’s having a midlife crisis
- ‘Mask rage: “One man told me I shouldn’t be allowed out if I can’t wear one”‘ – Unusually sceptical piece about mandatory face nappies in The Observer
- ‘Delaying herd immunity is costing lives‘ – Good piece by Martin Kulldorff in Spiked. He points out that the current lockdown is protecting the healthy instead of the vulnerable
- ‘Academic freedom on trial as sacked professor asks High Court to decide‘ – Article about Professor Peter Ridd who is fighting James Cook University in the courts after being sacked for challenging green orthodoxy about the Great Barrier Reef
- ‘They’ve Ridd us of this turbulent scientist‘ – Professor James Allan, columnist for The Spectator Australia, weighs in on the same topic
- ‘Top WHO disease detective warns against return to national lockdowns‘ – This is the same WHO official who said asymptomatic people infecting others was “very rare” back in June
Theme Tunes Suggested by Readers
Just one today: “You Don’t Need a Mask” by Rick Estrin and the Nightcats
Small Businesses That Have Re-Opened
A couple of months ago, Lockdown Sceptics launched a searchable directory of open businesses across the UK. The idea is to celebrate those retail and hospitality businesses that have re-opened, as well as help people find out what has opened in their area. But we need your help to build it, so we’ve created a form you can fill out to tell us about those businesses that have opened near you.
Now that non-essential shops have re-opened – or most of them, anyway – we’re now focusing on pubs, bars, clubs and restaurants, as well as other social venues. As of July 4th, many of them have re-opened too, but not all. Please visit the page and let us know about those brave folk who are doing their bit to get our country back on its feet – particularly if they’re not insisting on face masks! Don’t worry if your entries don’t show up immediately – we need to approve them once you’ve entered the data.
Forums Back Up and Running
I enjoy reading all your comments and I’m glad I’ve created a “safe space” for lockdown sceptics to share their frustrations and keep each other’s spirits up. But please don’t copy and paste whole articles from papers that are behind paywalls in the comments. I work for some of those papers and if they don’t charge for premium content they won’t survive.
We have created some Lockdown Sceptics Forums that are now open. Initially, they became a spam magnet so we temporarily closed them. However, we’ve found a team of people wiling to serve as moderators so the Forums are back up and running. Any problems, email the Lockdown Sceptics webmaster Ian Rons here.
“Mask Exempt” Lanyards
I thought I’d create a new permanent slot down here for people who want to buy (or make) a “Mask Exempt” lanyard/card. You can print out and laminate a fairly standard one for free here and it has the advantage of not explicitly claiming you have a disability. But if you have no qualms about that (or you are disabled), you can buy a lanyard from Amazon saying you do have a disability/medical exemption here (although it’s showing a delivery date of Sept 7th to 16th). The Government has instructions on how to download an official “Mask Exempt” notice to put on your phone here. You can get a “Hidden Disability” tag from eBay here and an NHS exemption notice for just £2.99 from Etsy here (see above).
And don’t forget to sign the petition on the UK Government’s petitions website calling for an end to mandatory face nappies in shops here.
Shameless Begging Bit
Thanks as always to those of you who made a donation in the past 24 hours to pay for the upkeep of this site. If you feel like donating, however small the sum, please click here. And if you want to flag up any stories or links I should include in future updates, email me here.
And Finally…
Discussion
Comments
This week across the site:
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Just read some hints in our regional French newspaper on mask wearing in heatwave conditions.
They recommend (with no apparent irony) choosing ‘breathable fabrics’.
Hardly any seriously negative comments.
The Brits here are even worse:
Met a fellow sceptic couple yesterday.
They are having to keep quiet when meeting other expats, 95% of whom have swallowed all the psyop baloney, won’t listen to any counterarguments, are dutifully wearing their muzzles (probably even in bed?) and ‘can’t wait for things to go back to normal when we get the vaccine’.
Non sperandum est.
Indeed. The real kicker is the ‘Critical Care Bed’ occupancy graph. Think of it every time you hear bollocks about ‘Save Lives’!
I saw a disturbing thing on Countryfile last night (I know BBC but I was in a neighbour’s flat). This Coronabollocks is killing the independent brewing industry, something like 60 million tons of hops are going begging because no-one’s buying. Millions of gallons of beer being thrown away. Like everything else this Lockdown only benefits the multinationals and speaking as an ex-member of CAMRA I’m dreading going back to that ghastly keg ale whcih all tastes like communal piss. Double Diamond (does not) work wonders. Beer, not tea, is the national drink of this country and we have some fantastic independent producers. One hop grower said it if goes under it will never recover. For this offence alone Johnson should be…urgh, aaargh, errgh!!!!!
greed, but then if you know you won’t be able to sell it, why make it? (The beer that is)
MONDAY’S PAGE HAS SNEAKED UP ON US
https://dailysceptic.org/2020/08/03/latest-news-93/#respond
Dont forget to take your bags with you when you leave
Someone must have asked and maybe even answered this question before because it’s too obvious, but I’m still going to post. If Bill Gates is such a wizard at fighting viruses why is his software riddled with them? My peace of mind has been shattered by his shit show scores of times over the years. Where’s your vaccine for that Bill?
Looking at the headlines this morning, it struck me that there doesn’t really seem to be any news.
Do you think the over 50s baloney is a red herring? Need to keep our ears to the ground more than ever!
It’s the silliest of silly seasons
One analysis is that it’s a canary – to see what public response is as a help to gauge how far to go with more repression.
Almost certainly.
It better be!!!!
Government propaganda at the daily mail. UK Column today covering the war-like language and NLP being used in government propaganda.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8572833/Worrying-staying-safe-army-health-professionals-working-scenes.html
Ukcolumn.org
Live now.
If you missed it live, the UKC broadcast is available on demand shortly after. Always worth watching.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53632043 90 minute tests, testing for a large number of viruses, detecting DNA of SARS-COV-2 after converting the RNA to DNA.
Brilliant article by Tim Stanley in The Daily Telegraph:
‘….a new model of social organisation was emerging: therapeutic authoritarianism.’
He may have captured the zeitgeist in two words….
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/02/cure-irrational-covid-fear-healthy-dose-conservatism/
Good comment I just read from DT comment article.
‘Boris, please note not all of us get our news from the biased mainstream media or the internet companies who think they are the only arbiters of facts (Google, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter banning doctors tells us all about the hidden agendas,).
We have figured out this is a mild disease, the hospitals are empty, Doctors are being banned from talking about HCQL as a cure or supressant, and muzzles are not for supressing the disease. They are of course for control. If they were a genuine necessity, you’d specify the type. At the moment, a paper bag will do.
I am over 50, I pay a lot of tax. Come for me and my company is leaving the UK.
Every day more and more are waking up. You really will wet the bed the day you realise its a significant number that know you’ve been lying to us.
Media coverage of the march in Germany against lockdowns this weekend? Where is that?’
People are waking up!
This comment made me laugh:
‘So the only way for us over 50’s will be to go out in disguise – mask, dark glasses, wig, jeans barely held up, undies showing, speaking blaccent and using the word ‘like’ six times in every sentence. May need to get a fake ID as well.’
If in DT can you post a link?
It was in the comments under this article: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/08/03/plot-afoot-against-heavy-handed-covid-schemes-like-shielding/
That’s why they’re preparing to bring in the troops.
?
Covid has brought home the importance of spiritual necessities like friendship, good food, travel or faith. The Tories should put themselves firmly on the side of those things and become, unashamedly, the party of joy.
Well they’re certainly the party of fear and separation at the moment!
Daily Express (I know, I know!), but comments strongly sceptical:
https://www.express.co.uk/showbiz/tv-radio/1317832/Boris-Johnson-news-warning-lockdown-over-50s-coronavirus-self-isolation-latest
Boris threats to the pubs
https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/fr/home/das-bag/aktuell/news/news-02-08-2020.html
After a relentless campaign blaming bars, restaurants and clubs for the resurgence of Covid-19 in Switzerland, the Swiss government issued a clarification those represented ~3.5% of transmissions, with the highest proportion within households 27,2%(BTW Schools 0.3%)
Does this mean that MP’s will be forced to stay at home, as many, including the PM, are over 50??
Unfortunately he “works” from home anyway.
Not forced. They’ve already been paid £90k this year to stay at home.
This Global conspiracy idea. When you have governments of all types around the world how would that ever work?
While I agree with the huge overreaction and poor management by the government I can’t buy Left, Centre and Right parties all signing a secret pact to do the same thing.
World peace all of a sudden run by “Big pharma” or Mr Gates??? Really?
This approach undermines what most of us are standing for and I am pretty sure that Toby is not working to that narrative.
The WHO on the other hand I don’t trust, nor anyone who is going to work for them, e.g. Whitty and Hunter.
Can the government, or health professionals give an exact figure of individuals who have died of Coronavirus, as opposed to those designated as dying with Coronavirus? Why were death certificates changed to allow merely the suspicion of Covid-19 infection, since when was this considered good medical practice? Because of this we can never know the true number of deaths due to the “pandemic”, and this will impact our ability to plan accordingly for future outbreaks. Can the government provide empirical evidence that the policy of lockdown has saved even one single life? How many people to date have died due to the policy of lockdown, due to non treatment of chronic illness, suicide or other causes not attributable to Coronavirus? Can the government provide the empirical evidence of the number of people who would have died had we not adopted lockdown and social distancing policies? Can the government provide the empirical evidence of the number of people who would have died had we sealed our borders and not locked down healthy individuals? Not predictions or extrapolations, but hard data. Can the government provide the empirical evidence that lack of social distancing measures in outdoor settings would have resulted in even… Read more »
You do realise that it is impossible to provide empirical evidence for something that has not happened?
Of course. But they should be able to provide empirical evidence for the course of action they followed. Imperial College are claiming their policy was a total success and the 500,000 deaths they predicted was avoided by lockdown policies, okay prove it!
The ONS do have a number for the number of death certificates where Covid wasn’t just mentioned but was also given as one of the causes of death. I think the total is about 1300 or so.
Is that for real?
I did a post on this a while back that between March and the end of June according to the ONS figures COVID-19 was involved in only killed 1,901 people under the age of 80 (4,234 in total with people of 80) that had no pre-existing illness, and just 736 between 0-65.
Also, remember there is no autopsies being done so a lot of these could also have underlying illnesses but they will never be discovered.
They also they removed the requirement of a second doctor to countersign the death certificate, because there is no going back on cremations for another check on cause of death…
And I read the bodies were only released quickly if Covid was put on the death certificate (even if not confirmed) otherwise a long wait for grieving families.
Excellent!
DavidC
Lots of false premisses in your questions.
You can’t provide empirical evidence for something that might or might not have happened.
Your very first question assumes there will be future outbreaks.
I did address that point below, however the point is that the government and health “experts” are basing policy on unproven and unverified theories. There is no evidence that lockdown, social distancing, mask wearing or any other measures taken are effective at stopping the spread of this (or any) virus, but there appears to be circumstantial evidence that Countries like Sweden have seen a better outcome. Only when more data sets are available will we know for certain, although lets not hold our breath for honest reporting of that!
One thing we can take from this entire episode in insane government policy making is that there will be without any doubt future outbreaks, not necessarily of this virus, but of other future viral (or bacterial) outbreaks. Even if the government doesn’t want a lockdown, this has created a precedence, the Covid zealots will demand a similar or even more draconian response for the next disease, maybe even the next seasonal flu strain.
I despair at what I’ve witnessed out and about, people proudly wearing masks in the street like some badge of honour. We have become a cowed, fearful and suspicious country in just five months.
Simple to answer : No to all.
… which is a big part of the problem.
I visited the Imperial War Museum North on Saturday. On the whole it was a pleasing break from the norm and a good opportunity for my children to receive some form of education. Fairly quiet (which suits me) but not completely dead either. Around 60% masks vs non-mask wearers. Similar proportion amongst staff.
There is a section on propaganda and how British and German governments sent similar messages to their people. There was also a section on the threat of nuclear war and the associated advice to people – ‘duck and cover’ etc.
There appeared to be a worrying lack of self-awareness amongst our mask-wearing brethren whilst viewing/discussing these exhibits. I took the opportunity to loudly educate my kids that the (largely useless) messages and techniques used then bear a remarkable similarity to those being sent out now – ‘stay alert’ etc.
The kids get it and began mocking Boris by mimicking his slogans in a daft voice. Silence from all of those stood around including mask-wearing staff. Why?
The ‘Why? is pretty obvious : nobody likes being called out for being a sucker. 🙂
They need to be called out. I’m on one of these local neighborhood apps and at the weekend some grown up child posted how she had walked her dog in the park and there were groups of yoofs standing together, no social distancing, no masks (??!!!) blah, blah. She received a lot of comments calling her out for being so hysterical which was quite reassuring given that commentators aren’t anonymous. I feel that people are no longer prepared to stand back and let bed wetters determine how the rest of us should lead our lives
They need to be called out, because they are complicit. In the old days they were called collaborators.
Maybe we should revive the term and use it liberally as appropriate.
There are many good letters in The Telegraph today. Here’s one of them:
How to wear a mask
SIR – In April I visited my sister in hospital. She died the next day with Covid-19 and other serious illnesses.
On the ward I was given personal protective equipment and told by the staff that after 30 minutes I would have to change my mask (Letters, August 1). The doctor explained that after this time exhaled water vapour partly saturates the fabric, causing it to become ineffective. Germs also build up inside the mask, presenting a possible danger to oneself and others; oxygen intake is reduced, and more carbon dioxide is inhaled.
What of those encouraged to wear masks for long periods at work, in shopping malls and on long journeys?
James O’Brien
Ilkley, West Yorkshire
Quite! I’ve posted a couple of comments here before about the tonnage of waste of masks. If 1 in 4 people in the UK wears ONE disposable mask a day and disposes of it at the end of the day it will produce about 64 TONS of waste face masks in ONE day! The amount of waste (masks, sanitiser bottles, wipes saturated with sanitisers, etc etc) is enormous.
DavidC
It makes me feel sick to think about it.
Just spotted this vomit inducing article on my web browser homepage:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/lifestyle/style/a-parents-guide-to-kid-s-face-coverings-plus-28-to-shop/ar-BB16ZuH1?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds
Highlights inldue:
“The new government guidelines have stated that it’s compulsory for children over the age of 11 to wear a face mask in these spaces. But that doesn’t necessarily mean anyone younger shouldn’t be encouraged to wear one – you might be preventing the spread of a potentially deadly disease, after all”
“You might be surprised to hear that face masks aren’t currently required in schools.”
“You wouldn’t let your child ride a bike without a helmet, then why let them go out the house without a face covering? What’s important is not to get into confrontation and an argument.”
Very emotive and manipulative language to strike fear into parents.
Unfortuantley there is no comment section as I would be very interested to see how this piece was being received.
An iniquitous article. One of the worst I’ve seen in connection with the current hysteria.
And that’s against some serious competition !
MSN = microsoft – one of the tech giants authorised to spread ‘approved’ ‘news’ laced with NLP and propaganda
Well – that clears up one thig:
~ Big data/tech is indeed deeply complicit in promoting falsehoods about this political uinitiative.
That’s appalling!
They are obviously concerned that discussion will put an end to their bollocks. 🙂
Hi all
Still tweaking my idea.
Which do you like MORE?
WE WILL BE FREE
OR
WAKE UP BE FREE
Thanks
LT
WE WILL BE FREE!
would be my preference
Thanks
non Monsieur merci a vous!
Already taken by RDawg who has done a lot on this site and Twitter (and had the courage to post a photo of himself there with Dellingpole.) Please don’t queer his patch.
Definitely agree – WE WILL BE FREE! is the one to go for.
WAKE UP BE FREE arguably has a rather lecturing/patronising tone to it (like the woke “educate yourself”, the other slogan is much more positive and all-embracing.
Thanks
What about
2 + 2 = 4 ?
Too subtle for most but once you are in the know…
Example: a local expat archery group called itself “Club 1346”. It took years before anyone French realised.
Do you think someone could point out to Boris & Co that no one ever wins at whack-a-mole?
….and that the moles, if left to their own devices, actually go back into the hole of their own accord
There were many more people at the protest in Berlin than BBC reported.
500.000 were registered before the event. During the demo there were between 800.000 and 1.3 million present!
More info here (in German): https://youtu.be/WzWGk3MP8XE
impressive numbers!
is there any way to hold the bbc to account? or rid of them entirely. it is blatant propaganda.
Held to account ?
Ho ho, very funny. Of course not.
Really encouraging, but I was disturbed to read that the German media were representing the protest in the same blatantly biased way as the UK media (labelling them as far-right extremists, underestimating numbers). There seems to be a lot more organised dissent in Germany, both from the public and professionals/scientists, but this doesn’t seem to translate to their media!
all media are corrupt and most receive their scripts from a central ‘source’
Why would the German be less insidious than the UK media. They’re almost all multi-nationals these days
“German media were representing the protest in the same blatantly biased way as the UK media (labelling them as far-right extremists”
I noted some time back that this is hopefully going to backfire on them badly in the longer term, because what they are doing is associating the hated (by the media classes) far right with the truth and with courage and common sense, on this crucial issue.
Second round of hassle-free mask-free shopping in lidl done. I was a little braver this time and used a trolley and took my time. I even spoke to staff, who sadly are now all wearing masks but didnt question me at all.
1 other mask-free shopper, another elderly lady using hers as a fetching chin strap! And saw at least 1 child masked up. Parents trying to normalise it before term rolls around. Good grief.
In the gym, we are almost completely mask free still – hallelujah!
“A Catholic Writes”: I’d be interested in such a resistance group or an underground church! Have you (author of the article) joined the forum on Lockdown Sceptics?
I wrote to the Royal College of General Practitioners:
I have been trying to find the answer to this, but have been unable so I wonder if you can help me. Could you tell me what specific aspects of the law GP practices are following when they say that patients cannot be seen in person, and must only be seen by telephone or digital appointment please? The CoronaVirus Act was revoked and replaced on 3rd July with Part 2 and it’s unclear exactly what applies to medical care? https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/684/regulation/1/made Matt Hancock has since said all healthcare apts will have to remain remote / digital for the foreseeable. On what authority has he done that? And on what legal basis are GP practices enacting it?
Secondly, could you point me at what rights patients have during this time? If, say, GP practices are enacting guidance as if it was law, and are rationing, reducing or cutting services to patients, what recourse do patients have?
Thirdly, could you let me know, are GP practices and care providers still subject to PSED duty, equality impact assessments and risk assessments? I assume they are obliged, when working out what services to offer, to ensure they are not discriminatory. E.g. telephone appointments could be… Read more »
That is a fantastic letter. I can’t understand why doctors are still operating in this way. It’s an absolute disgrace.
having spoken to a few – they either buy the propaganda (or pretend to) or are too scared to speak out
the nhs threatens staff who speak out in case you were unaware
I was aware, but there comes a point in all our lives that when faced with a moral dilemma we do the right thing, so I’m rapidly running out of sympathy.
they’re mostly trapped in big mortgages, school fees etc.
they’re paid handsomely too.
…difficult to get a man to admit something when he’s paid to think otherwise (I can’t recall the quote)
PS you must have the patience of a saint if you have any sympathy left!
In other word, turkeys don’t vote for Christmas
precisely!
Who from the NHS threatens the staff? How do they threaten them? Verbally? Is the threat dismissal?
I’m not sure you can be dismissed for questioning and speaking out against current policies that are both unlawful and unethical.
dismissal is what I heard.
That can’t be lawful either can it?
I fear you can be.
I heard yesterday, I think on Anna Breese, about 2 cancer surgeons dismissed (GMC ? BMA ?) for speaking out.
Thanks! It is a disgrace, but the question is, is it a lawful one? I suspect not!
A good letter, indeed. The only other question to ask might be how the ‘enforcement’ of face masks is justified in terms of the basic medical ethic of ‘Do no harm’.? This boils down to practical risk assessment, and in this case, benefits from mask wearing are assumed, not established, whereas the harms are clear in terms of discomfort and the impediment to normal breathing, with possible hypoxia and hypercapnia.
Yep, I hope the implied question through the entire letter was that point! Absolute bastards! I’ve just written to Simon Dolan to ask if his lawyers would like to take this up.
wonderful!
let us know if they reply..
The Care Quality Commission should also have this issue on their radar as it has a direct impact on a practice’s safety and responsiveness, not say their obligation to provide a caring service.
Yes I might do them next, I think the rule on lack of visits was never ever law, so all those homes and hospices turning loved ones away did so with no legal standing whatsoever. In effect they kidnapped people’s relatives!
Well done BecJT!
I don’t know much about the CQC or what’s going on in their establishments so by all means let me know the key things I need to ask and I’ll go and jack russell them as well!
Bec, you’re a star!
I am a nurse practitioner working in an urgent care centre, we are seeing patients face to face, the patients are usually booked in from their GP surgery either by receptionists or a GP following a telephone consultation. From a personal perspective I have sent photographs of skin disorders to my own GP via a secure website. There is also a secure link for video consultations. The big problem with the latter is that it needs a smart phone, which not everyone has.
That’s helpful, thanks, I’m still not sure it’s lawful though, on what legal basis are doctors not just booking appointments as normal? Access to technology is a massive equality issue for sure, hence my question about PSED. Lots of families only have internet access on one pay as you go phone with a data bolt on, it’s prohibitively expensive for them to access care in this way.
Is it all risk assessed? The clincher is in law covid is not a ‘risk’, so that should bugger up the risk assessments, vs the risks of not seeing patients properly.
And do you think that’s an acceptable way for GPs to “see” patients?
Short answer is no. I have made telephone consultations, only because the GP practices have told the patient it will be a remote consultation. If I have any concerns at all then I’ll try to get the patient in for face to face, but that isn’t always possible due to lack of my appointment slots! I am seeing quite a few people with chronic conditions that should be managed by their GP, so I refer them back telling them to make sure they speak to the GP. The Secretary of State for health has indicated that the current method of GPs seeing patients remotely is the way forward.
That’s wonderful. Here’s hoping that, if they daren’t incriminate themselves in print by answering you properly, at least it pricks some consciences.
I suspect our best way to fight is by asking awkward questions.
Great letter – well done!
Nothing new. But I’ve just been looking – as usual – at the excellent updated CEBM graphics on deaths and hospital admissions.
I have been wavering towards thinking that stupidity and ignorance could be, indeed, a major component of this man-made disaster.
This could indeed be true of the ordinary Joe who gets no further than the notoriously crap MSM for information.
But for those in charge? Just look at those bar charts with their blindingly clear message about a disappearing infection – well below epidemic levels. Then read the paper that puts testing nonsense into context.
It stretches credibility that anyone closely involved with the management of the country could honestly believe the ridiculous knicker-wetting Fear and Panic narrative about this pretty ordinary virus.
Not difficult to work out the conclusion.
Dangerous times.
They might think it’s disappeared because of all the crap and so they need to keep “squeezing the brakes” etc to keep it so low. It’s hard to believe they can really be that stupid but their whole existence depends on the lie.
Remember all that ridiculous nonsense last year when they kept saying they wouldn’t ask for a Brexit extension and kept “preparing” for no deal? They had decided that admitting the truth was an “extinction level event” so therefore the truth did not exist.
The way they’re “preparing” for the second wave is very a similar activity.
An excellent appeal to sense.
There were much more people at the Berlin protest than BBC reported!
500.000 were registered ahead of the event, but during the demonstration, there were between 800.000 and 1.3 million!
Get the details here (in German): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzWGk3MP8XE&feature=youtu.be
Re – the leaflet – thanks for all your feedback.
I’ve kept it simple stuff becuase people have short attention spans, me included – just short headlines with easy to understand facts – at Cheezy’s great suggestion I’ve avouded %’s and death numbers. We know that 300 out of millions is tiny but people with no common sense may not – the judge at Dolan’s court case was shocked that as many as 2 children have died out of 15 million.
Anyway I welcome your feed back – these are only my suggestions
If anyone wants to get involved please send your email add to lockdowntruths who has kindly offered to pass on, and will hopefully also get involved alongside their own excellent campaigns…
Important COVID-19 Facts
1. On average 11,000 people die naturally of old age every week in the UK (600,000 a year) – most of the 46,000 who have died with (not from) covid were very old and frail and would probably have passed away in 2020 without covid.
2. Of the 46,000 people who have died with (not from) covid nearly 44,000 already suffered from life threatening health conditions.
3. The average life expectancy in the… Read more »
You could add Netherlands to the no mask list.
With regard to your keep it simple point above – would there be room for a simple definition: 1. COVID 19 is a virus which…… 2. Coronavirus is the name given to the family of viruses which include all common cold and flu viruses.,,,,,
It’s just that so often I have been asked, ‘well what about all the positive tests for coronavirus?’
Also, can this thread be transferred to today’s forum? It’s important IMO to keep in front of posters.
If this is a leaflet you’ll be handing out to people I think that 17 statistics is maybe too much. If you could keep it to 10 with a larger font it would be more impactful. Perhaps six stats about the disease (who is dying, schools, cases now being linked to younger and no corresponding increase in hospitalisations) and then 4 about the economy.
Some of these statements are perhaps less obvious as facts – particularly ‘the Swedish are enjoying life’.
Bullet 17 is accurate but I wonder if to an average person this would discredit the leaflet and make it look tinfoil hat.
Add sources.
that’s great, makes sense, thank you – which 10 would you suggest?
Always hard to condense, but limiting to ten if possible makes good sense. Hard to say which ones to remove – probably depends on your target audience and intended results (in terms of what you want them to think about). Some can probably be combined.
Great work, anyway. My first thoughts would be:
Combine 8 and 9.
Add Holland to 12 and amend extra Finland
Remove 15 and 16 (not because there’s anything wrong with them, but just for conciseness).
I think you might be looking at a set of leaflets, each with a selection of five or six killer points, maybe the odd belter duplicated on different leaflets. These would be ‘big brothers’ to BluePill’s stickers, mentioned below. Just thoughts, happy to be shot down.
Isn’t it a shame we have to avoid real numbers and stats?
You could definitely produce more targeted subsets as well as the general purpose one. And there might be a case for the “hard” numbers in those.
Also combine 10 and 11.
Thanks, we’ve whittled it down to 12 points
This is probably too wordy, but something along the lines of “If you test positive, you won’t die; you won’t get taken to hospital; you won’t be given medicine – you will just be sent home and told to stay in – that’s all!”
Point 10 you call it “community immunity” but at point 16 you call it “population immunity”.
oops…
If it’s not too late to add a two-peneth can I suggest high up in the list is a mention of why oppose the government measures.
The importance of normal life and freedom. That pointing out the valued information points is done through concern and care, thoughtfully. To give the reader a reason to continue through the points.
Apologies for not following the earlier discussion. Has 19 been decided against? Covid-19.
Thanks for posting. I am sure some of the talented writers here are better able to further sharpen the list.
Life expectancy is how long you are expected to live had you been born today (Life Expectancy at Birth) if mortatily rates do not change. So you need to look at historical life expectancy and find the correct life expectancy for people to be dying this year, then anyone over that life expectancy has lived past that. I did that exercise when COVID-19 panic started, and it was 75 or thereabouts, there’s a statistical fiddle where you add a number of minutes to each year lived due to medical advances etc, but it doesn’t make that much difference and I can’t quite remember where the fiddle is described.
Neither approach is correct in fact. The corresponding figure you theoretically want is the remaining life expectancy for people who are already 80.
The reason is that life expectancy at birth is effectively a weighted average of the likelihood of dying each year from birth upwards. So as you live longer the remaining expectancy of life does, in fact, increase. It’s not a statistical trick or anything like that, it’s just a fact that, having survived so far your weighted average remaining life has gone up.
But having said all that, the average expectancy of life at 80 is also misleading because, of course, by definition the majority of COVID deaths have comorbidities so it is a false assumption that they would have gone on to experience average life expectancy (that’s one of the mistakes made by the very poor paper that suggested average life years lost to COVID was 10).
It’s actually really difficult to come up with an honest estimate of future lost life expectancy, the best you can say really, is that it is almost certainly less than the average remaining life expectancy for the population of 80 year olds as a whole.
Yet the only way to determine how much of a life expectancy an 80 year old today ought to have had is to go back 80 years and see what the life expectancy was at their time of birth, then fiddle that for advances.
Why do you say that having survived so far the weighted average goes up, what’s the pathological or statistical model there?
The way to determine life expectancy is to look at current data and that is what the ONS does. The life expectancy you had at birth is necessarily unreliable because it was based on data then.
Your life expectancy goes up as you age regardless of any improvement to mortality generally, because each year you survive is one more year when you didn’t die. In particular overall life expectancy at birth is materially reduced by infant mortality and the so-called accident hump in your 20s. If you survive both of those then your life expectancy is inevitably higher than it was at birth.
I know it feels unintuitive but just think about it for a bit 🙂
Ok, we’re talking about different metrics.
What I’m talking about is: applying the law of large numbers, has the person outlived people born in the same year.
What you’re talking about is, given a person’s age, how many years would we expet them to “stick around,” Of course, your metric doesn’t work well for COVID-19 specifics, as you rightly say, due to comorbidities. 🙂
Point 12: “… Norway, Finland and Finland scientists …”
I like the idea of a leaflet, but I wonder if we may be thinking too logically here. The sheeple aren’t interested in facts or stats.
I’ve been thinking that what I would like is a roll of small stickers, preferably acrylic, round and about the size of a mug, each with a simple message such as “the virus is a lie” or “no one is dying of covid”. Maybe have a link to this or another site.
Every time you get the train, slap a few on the back of the seats. Go shopping, slap them on the trolley handles. Go to the pub, stick them on the beer mats.
The sheeple may start to think there are more people thinking this way and may move to a different herd.
If someone sourced these I’m sure we would be happy to pay for them.
you are right and thats a great idea – but i wonder if that would be like putting ”God doesn’t exist” stickers on the back of church pews
Not if you are confirming someone’s suspicions.
lets not give the bedwetters ideas – they might pressure the Government into making that lot mandatory
Thanks for putting this together.
I think that assertions are better avoided. Just as a for instance, Point 14. “Millions of British workers will lose their jobs” etc – might be better expressed as “Many thousands of British workers have already lost their jobs, and with the British economy predicted to contract xxxx (there have been studies published on this forum and I can’t remember the predictions exactly, sorry) then many more thousands will be unemployed by the end of the year.”
Great! To point 11 you could add that there has been no spike in infections as a result of Norway and Denmark re-opening schools post-lockdown..
2025 forecasts
UK, population down by 15Mill:
http://www.deagel.com/country/United-Kingdom_c0209.aspx
US, population down by 100Mill:
http://www.deagel.com/country/United-States-of-America_c0001.aspx
To judge from the population density, I think that is down TO 15 million. This is a war gaming site?
The GDP figures are even wilder…
This seems to be post a WW3 that ended in 2025 (5years!) stuff, a bit extreme if you ask me….
Yes, you are correct, down to! Seems somewhat extreme.
Don’t know if this helps explain – https://www.algora.com/Algora_blog/2020/04/10/deagel-makes-mysterious-changes-to-2025-population-forecast-for-america-as-bill-gates-launches-gran-d-challenge-the-holy-grail-of-influenza-research-and-b
Possibly a bit too tinfoil and down the rabbit hole?
Strikes me as a bit sudden.
Side effects of vaccine???
I can’t get my head around what are people so afraid of?,when I ask they say the virus when I ask why they don’t even know just say if you got it you’d know …but that’s the point most people get it and don’t even know ..blank expression followed by well why are so many people dying then! FFS we’re never gonna get through!
I just had a complete falling down moment at Sainsburys when I asked why there were now no shopping dividers on the conveyor belt and was told that ‘they help spread the virus’. I ripped off my mask and went, well berserk, stating that clearly there was no virus in that sterile humourless shop to spread on anything. Suffice to say I can’t go back there and am genuinely questioning my own sanity and ability to cope with the world anymore.
Best way is to laugh at it instead.
And shop at Aldi.
It’s because people touch them. Like the baskets, trolleys, all the goods on sale, your money, the card machine, the conveyor belt itself… oh and the snot soaked rags they keep fumbling with, before touching all the above. So, I applaud them really, oh yeah.
The Universe is punishing you for wearing a mask …
Carl Heneghan in the Spectator:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-covid-cases-in-england-aren-t-actually-rising/amp
Heneghan is always good! Serious question – what has happened to the “urgent review” of the reporting of Covid-19 deaths by PHE which Hancock ordered two weeks ago due to Heneghan’s work? Is it ongoing or was the sense of urgency lost when the “powers that be” realised that the accurate figures (especially now) would be insufficiently alarming? As I understand it nothing has changed on reporting and I cannot find any update on the review.
It will be forgotten. Because it would show them up. Surely a sample, say one weeks worth of figures, ‘old way’ vs ‘correct way’ could be produced quickly?
No longer in the news, so handbrake on with it is my guess. God, I’m getting too cynical!! :o))
Same in the US, heavily compromised pillar 2 resting drove and drives the increase in positive test results.
And same as in LUX, CH, Austria&Germany: the number of new positives equals the false positive rate of the PCR test, which is why testing is extended, made free and made mandatory in more and more cases and federal states there.
They found and use this tool to keep US suppressed for good.
Until people wake up.
Pity you have to pay to read their articles – think you can only read a couple without a subscription…