One of the most surprising things to emerge from the pandemic, at least from a lockdown sceptic’s point of view, is how overwhelmingly the British public has backed the lockdowns. For example, a YouGov poll taken in March of 2020 found that 93% of people supported the first lockdown. Another poll taken in January of 2021 found that 85% of people supported the third lockdown.
While some lockdown sceptics claim these polls can’t be trusted, I suspect they’re not too far off the mark. And even if they do overstate support for lockdowns (due to unrepresentative samples or social desirability bias) the true number is unlikely to be more than 10 or 20 percentage points lower.
The high level of public support for lockdowns may explain why they’ve lasted as long as they have. Politics is notoriously short-sighted, so why would the Conservatives ease up on a policy that’s kept them ahead in the polls for most of the last 14 months?
Aside from the public’s longstanding reverence for the NHS, an obvious reason why support for lockdown is so high is that millions of people have been paid 80% of their wages to stay at home. In the absence of the Government’s unprecedented furlough scheme, many of these people would be out of work, and presumably much less supportive of lockdowns.
However, there might be a more important reason why support for lockdown is so high: the public overestimates the risks of COVID-19, especially the risks to young people. Let’s review the evidence.
In July of 2020, the consultancy Kekst CNC ran a poll asking Britons what percentage of the population has died of COVID-19. The correct answer at the time was around 0.1%. However, the median answer among respondents was 1%, and of those who ventured a guess (rather than saying “don’t know”) one in five said at least 6% of the population had died.
Last year, Gallup ran a poll for Franklin Templeton in which they asked Americans what percentage of people who’ve been infected with COVID-19 need to be hospitalised. Less than 20% of respondents gave the correct answer of “1–5%”. And a staggering 35% said at least half of those infected need to be hospitalised. Interestingly, Democrats were much more likely than Republicans to overestimate the risk of hospitalisation, as this chart reveals:
It should be noted that the poll also revealed some underestimation of risks on the part of Republicans. For example, 41% incorrectly stated that flu causes more deaths than COVID-19. This shows that results can vary depending on exactly which question you ask. (Notice that Republicans did overestimate the risk of hospitalisation; just to a lesser extent than Democrats.)
Likewise, a survey carried out by Ipsos MORI for Kings College London asked Britons what are the chances of needing hospital treatment if you catch coronavirus. The median answer among respondents was 30%, and of those who ventured a guess, one in four said the chances are at least 50%.
In March and April of last year, the economist Arthur Attema and colleagues carried out two surveys of the French population: one two weeks after the first lockdown began, and the other two weeks before it ended. They asked respondents, “Out of 100 people who are infected with the Coronavirus, how many of them die from the disease?”
In both surveys, the average answer was 16 (whereas the correct answer for Western populations is less than 1). The fact that the average in the second survey was no lower than the average in the first indicates that people’s understanding of the risks did not improve over time, despite more evidence accumulating that the IFR is less than 1%.
Members of the public seem to have a particularly skewed perception of the risk COVID-19 poses to younger people. The aforementioned Gallup poll asked Americans what percentage of those who’ve died were aged 24 and under. The correct answer at the time was around 0.1%, yet the average answer among Republicans was 8%, while the average among Democrats was 9%.
Likewise, a poll taken by Ipsos MRBI for The Irish Times asked people what percentage of those who’ve died were under the age of 35. The correct answer was around 1%, yet the average among respondents was 12%.
In November of 2020, Savanta ComRes ran a poll on behalf of The Conservative Woman and asked Britons to guess the average age of people who’ve died after testing positive for COVID-19. The correct answer is around 82. However, the median answer among respondents was 65.
Incidentally, one problem with asking people to estimate very small quantities (like the percentage of people who’ve died from COVID-19) is that humans have a tendency to revise small percentages upwards when they’re not sure. This “uncertainty-based rescaling” probably accounts for some of the overestimation in the surveys mentioned above.
However, taking all the evidence together, people – particularly in Britain – do seem to overestimate the risks of COVID-19. And this may help to explain their high level of support for lockdowns.
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Really? Wow, who would have thought it?!
Yup : knock-me-down-with-a-feather finding!
“Evidence Suggests People Overestimate the Risks of COVID-19”
Hardly a surprise considering the continuing psyops programme is in full swing. You can’t even listen to the bloody radio without being reminded every twenty minutes that we’re in a dangerous pandemic.
Shut down the governments access to constantly delivering their misinformation and you end their power.
The ticker on almost every TV news programme worldwide of daily cases and deaths (allegedly) drives the hysteria.
In reality, in a year, out of every 7,800 people, three have died, and at least one of those would have died anyway. For this the world was turned upside down.
The number of under 50s I’ve spoken to who think if you catch it you’re highly likely to die is staggering. Definitely a win for the propaganda machine.
Yes, but realistically, who would/could do that? The truth needs to be broadcast to counter the lies. Courage, creativity, and subversion are called for.
Indeed – biggest propaganda program globally in the history of the human race. Manufactured consent by foul means. The psyops have been the most evil part of this, and most people have not even considered that it’s wrong or even noticed it has happened or thought it odd.
I was talking to a semi-sceptical friend of mine the other day. He told me someone close to him is a full-on covidian who has been sent quite mad, and seemed surprised. I pointed out to him that it was hardly surprising given the propaganda – it was clear from his reaction that this had not occurred to him.
What has been fascinating (?) has been the number of people who you would have normally considered ‘intelligent’ who have completely bought into the myths.
You can see how Derren Brown is so successful, and why e-mail and ‘phone scams are so productive.
Fascinating in the way that a car crash is
I was discussing covid with another person of my acquaintance. A trained scientist. I made reference to Sweden and got back some out of date, inaccurate anti-Swedish propaganda. I pointed out some basic errors in it to my friend, and told them I had spent a lot of time looking at data from various sources and that they should come back to me when they’d done the same and we could have a sensible discussion. That was the end of it – no interest at all in finding out whether their received ideas were in the realms of reality or not. A trained scientist with a Masters in something brain-achingly hard. Ego? Sunk cost fallacy? Repressed, subconscious desire to be locked down? Goodness only knows.
In order for “intelligence” or “intellectual capacity” to be truly useful to people in their daily lives, emotional resilience, scepticism, courage are required.
I endorse your question marks as to explanation. I reckon that, as with most syndromes, there are a number of mechanisms in play, to do with individual psychology and susceptibility to social pressure. One thing I have noted is the perversion of a healthy and socially vital instinct – the need to trust, which can be seen in the instincts of children of horribly abusive parents.
I was wondering when a comparison with the machinations of Derren Brown would ever come up in these discussions! Have you seen the one called “Remote Control” where he’s the host of a fake game show, and it demonstrates the “de-individuation” of the audience members?
That is a perfect analogy of what is happening now and over the past year, where it’s all to easy to get swept along with the herd mentality and jeer and curse at all the lowly dissenters!
Well worth a look.
Indeed. I have found that quite unfathomable.
Last summer when the subject cropped up on the radio I asked an apparently intelligent woman what percentage of the population HAD DIED of Covid and she replied 7%.
I pointed out that equalled the population of London which seemed to sow some doubt in her mind.
On the subject of mass risk assessment, following the Twin Towers terrorist attacks Americans largely abandoned internal air travel for many months, taking to the road instead.
In the following year there were far more excess deaths on the road, compared with previous years, more in fact than died in the 9/11 attack itself.
Unfortunately I have to acknowledge that my sister falls into the same category of wildly exaggerating the impact of Covid on UK mortality. Initially she refused to give an estimate when I asked her, but finally plumped for 7% when I gave her a range of values.
She is one of these people who believe what is on the BBC – in July 2019 she was completely unaware of the Gilets Jaunes protests, at a time when her daughter was due to get married in France. I try and engage her on scientific articles about the dreaded vaccine; all I am told is that I am “stupid” not to have taken it.
Same experience with my sister, unfortunately. She has now blocked my email and phone number!
This is in a great book on risk, volcano insurance is taken up in massive numbers just after an eruption, the exact time it’s least likely, and winds down as the years roll on. Humans are terrible at gauging risk.
Someone made the point around then that more Americans were killed by other Americans than by any other nationality
Could someone kindly remind me who generously sponsors Ipsos MORI
and it just so happens that King’s College London has received “grants” totalling $8 million from that well known philanthropist couple.
https://www.gatesfoundation.org/about/committed-grants?q=King%27s%20college%20London
And thanks to Matt Hancock instructing all GP surgeries to pass on their patients full details to the NHS and partners – which includes MORI – generous Billy probably now has a team cross matching IDs with those on Facebook, Twitter etc who posted unfavourable comments about him or his pals, in order to label us ‘non-compliants’ or anti WEF rebels
And here visually is the chance by age band of not dying with or from covid since March 2020 (based on England and Wales ONS data).
Doubt many people would be able to assess the risk of dying with or from covid for an average person in their own age group.
Although we knew that this is the case, Noah has done a useful job in pulling together the jaw-dropping actuality of the figures.
It would be interesting to have the information in summary chart form.
It would also be interesting (but impossible) to know the answers to the questions asked about the severe ‘flu of – say – 1957-8.
Look at it scientifically, and the one aspect that Noah hasn’t focused on is that the government’s information programme – like all other things about the ‘pandemic’ has been a massive failure of public health. They have actually assisted the warping of public perception (courtesy the Goebbels and Mengele Memorial Brigade). A standard rule of managing even severe public events is to give accurate information, and achieve the opposite.
Evidence Suggests People Overestimate the Safety of COVID-19 vaccines
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/978315/050421_AZ_DAP.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/978316/050421_PF_DAP.pdf
And the UK govt yellow-card data sets are always two weeks in arrears!!
IPSOS MORI LOL.
Evidence suggests people are gullible, lazy and stupid.
What a surprise.
Yes. Whilst obviously the psy ops have been as clever as they are immoral, I am horrified by how totally moronic people are. I sometimes venture onto a ‘mums’ website – don’t go there; full of hysterical idiots – and the shite a lot of them spout is beyond belief. Things like 10% of the population has died.. Or DIED… because capital letters make it true and worse. And in the last few days wailing on about the number of children dying in Brazil. Without the slightest knowledge about Brazil’s population, demograohics, average death rates, health care or literally anything at all that would give all their cretinous hand wringing any validity.
Don’t have a link, but saw a poll last summer (well enough into the pandemic that we knew enough about who it affects), from YouGov I think, which surveyed 18-24 y.o on how concerned they were about personally becoming seriously ill, or even dying, from the virus. Exactly 33% fell into the top two categories of being either (and I can’t recall the exact wording) somewhat worried or very worried.
Which even then we knew was totally at odds with that groups real risk level.
Something to do with there being a UK government unit whose specific role in life is to create fear and panic, perhaps?
Along with media which has either been silenced by OFCOM (government action again) or is in the pockets of Big Pharma lobbyists (Daily Telegraph I’m looking at you) for whom fear of a devastating pandemic (without the reality) is like manna from heaven.
Just goes to show how thick the British public is
Comes from 3 or 4 decades of education not teaching how to think but what to think.
I would like to think that the strength of opinion held will have impact, rather than just the overall balance. On this score, my sense is that most lockdown sceptics like myself are far more likely to hold strong, deep conviction – and vote in future elections almost exclusively on politicians’ attitudes to this – than the kind of shallow, tepid support for lockdown which is probably the most common feeling among the ~80% of the population who support lockdown. We can hope.
85% is an absurdly high figure. In the productive and practical private sector I have spoken to very few supportive of the CCP shutdowns the young are also very sceptical. Yes the elderly and Public Sector have come right behind the restrictions and women tend to be more scared than men but we have at least a third of that I have no doubt.
Stopping the id cards though is much more important. Very few realise though beyond the young CCP virus is very easy on the healthy, even if getting on a bit. They listen too much to Dr Shillary and the like, not realising such individuals are bought, hiding behind their respected titles.
“ the elderly and Public Sector have come right behind the restrictions”
I’m afraid that alternative, blind and prejudiced misinformation is no answer.
I’ve found no particular pattern, beyond observing that tradesmen and women coming to our house to do work are all very happy to lose their masks when we tell them not to bother on our account, and they all behave normally with regards to distancing, accepting cups of tea etc. But I appreciate that this is possibly a somewhat self-selecting group – maybe there are petrified painters who have furloughed themselves.
But apart from that I have encountered sceptics and covidians of all stripes.
People I speak to also overestimate or don’t understand what a co-morbidity is. I know lots of people who think they NEED the vaxx because they have slight asthma, or had cancer twenty years ago, or pretty much any vague ailment you can think of!
Very true. Nearly everyone in my cul-de-sac claims they are a special case.
I was explaining to a woman, who was clearly having breathing difficulties outside Tesco, why she was probably exempt from wearing a mask while shopping.
“Oh I got to love, I got asthma”
That’s why you are exempt I replied.
“Oh no, I had double pneumonia too . . .”
So I gave up.
Incredibly, some people still watch the news and read the papers. I do recommend giving it up to pretty much everyone I meet.
More bizarrely still, there are actually people out there who think politicians act in the interests of the population, and are concerned only to tell the truth.
It’s well known that our intuitive grasp of probabilities is frequently wrong though so I’m not surprised by these numbers.
Seeing Kenneth Kendall at the top of some of the news updates here made me think back to that era and despite the fact that there was far less news coverage available (no 24 hour news channels, no breakfast news, no social media) people were far better informed by the two or three daily news bulletins and the oldschool newspapers we did have access to.
These tended to contain important news, rather than just speculation or journalists talking to each other.
On the subject of indoctrination, today 22nd is one of those stupid “save the world from weather” days.
The level of scienetific ignorance involved is at about the same !evel as with this Wuhan Flu stuff. Except the global warming fraud will literally cost the earth.
Not enough people are aware of the true figures. This means that the results of these polls really depend on how they’re conducted. If done face to face on random members of the public on the street, they are caught off guard and probably can’t remember the true figures even if they have read them. So they venture a guess, which is bound to be an overestimation plucked out of thin air and influenced by the emotive propaganda, which they do remember.
However, if it’s carried out online, then people have the true data at their fingertips and probably just look up the answer!
I can’t imagine that’s solely how it’s done, as that would be a bit like gauging the extent of someone’s knowledge via an online quiz when they can just google the answers!
It seems a fair indication of what I see as widespread beliefs.
Due to this precise problem amongst my friends and family I created an infographic last year.
It didn’t work. Even well-educated, intelligent people still believe the lies on television, and try to change the world so it agrees with the lies.
Brilliant realarthurdent! Made me chuckle!
The ‘peoplegram’ is a great way to put things in perspective.
“…people do seem to overestimate the risks of Covid19…”
The understatement of the year!
“and of those who ventured a guess (rather than saying “don’t know”) one in five said at least 6% of the population had died.”
I suspect that says rather more about the state of mathematics eduction in the UK than the question of Covid.
I think it says most about the extent to which deliberate attempts to scare people have worked, using the mechanisms of the state in this country and others in unprecedented ways and extents, certainly in a “democracy” in peacetime.
I agree Lucan. Not many people have any idea of UK population – roughly around 67 million. Not many can work out what 1% (never mind 6%) might actually mean in terms of burials/cremations/funerals and have no idea how many deaths routinely occur during a year – so there is no context or perspective for the man/woman on the street to grapple with – even if they wanted to – and so many are not interested anyway.
For me the constant doom-laden headlines from no 10 and their communication centre BBC were and are unforgiveable and increasingly appear to be malicious and agenda driven.
You don’t say!!!
It’s hardly surprising given the level of the psych ops warfare launched against the public.
I get into a state of a reasonable coping psychological equilibrium about the shit state of the UK, and then something comes along that again pushes me into a rage.
This time it was receiving information from the Hebrides – where we have taken holidays for the last 45 years (bar the f.up of last year and one year of illness)
I am fully understanding of the owners, who are being leaned on by the Mad Wee Krankie (in their case) – but I also think they probably believe the nonsense that is spewed out about Covid. This is taken from their ‘Covid-based’ provisions for their self-catering accomodation. Play the game, and score a point for every provision you find that is unsupported by scientific evidence :
… so – hardly surprising re. the general credulity of the public when faced with this from every direction.
It’s depressing and a lot of this may well continue even in the event that the legal restrictions are lifted. With smaller entities with whom one has a semi-personal relationship I think it’s worth telling them that you’d prefer them not to have such restrictions. It may do no good but perhaps if they themselves are sceptics and they have a few such messages they might consider dialling it down – after all I suspect many places are doing this because they think their customers expect it. With larger organisations I am afraid I will just not bother having anything to do with them if I can possibly avoid it. I feel sorry for people who work in those places as it’s not their fault.
“many places are doing this because they think their customers expect it.”
This is certainly the case – which is why I posted it here. Its a manifestation of the practical effects of these wildly hysterical perceptions.
And your right about smaller enterprises with whom one has a personal relationship – its a bit like intra-family strife.
I think if I had to put these provisions in order of insanity, the one about disinfecting hands after opening gates really took the biscuit.
A quick check of the ferry website indicates that testing is voluntary and no proof required. Which is just as well, no intention of ever taking a test. There are sceptical accommodations available in the remoter areas of Scotland, hint hint, just sayin’, ye ken, for a friend……
I am sure there will be establishments that will be lax with regard to this sort of thing, but anywhere remotely corporate will be full of box-ticking stuff. That said, a friend reports from PureGym that the mask mandate is ignored, at least in the branch he uses.
I was told years ago, and have had it confirmed a few times since, that at BPs Aberdeen HQ (which company is in one of the riskiest businesses going and not averse to taking short cuts when required) are notices reading (something like but very close).
“All staff and contractors are required to use the handrail when using the stairs.
Any staff member not doing so will face disciplinary action and contractors may have their access to the building restricted.
All members of staff observing others failing to comply will report lapses to security, failure to do so may also result in disciplinary action.”
No doubt these days they have to use a sanitser pad in the palm of their hand while interacting with the handrail.
Similar edicts spotted in another safety critical industry, where a real incident will likely take out quite a few people in an unmissable manner. Also weren’t allowed to carry cups of coffee on the stairs, had to take the lift. The elf n safety droid will be in despair now the ruddy handrail and lift buttons have also become potentially deadly.
Thanks, Tartan – I blew my top when I saw this crap, I’m not proud to say, and vented it on an a friend who is a nervous nelly.
Bloody H*ll. Definitely NOT an ideal holiday destination then.
I work for a very large well known tech firm and goodness me, the anxiety about COVID-19 is through the roof, despite an average age which is easily within the lowest risk brackets.
I’ve spoken to lots of fit healthy people in their 20s and 30s who are very worried about getting covid
I think it’s very irresponsible of the Government to lead with a message of fear in this way. Big tech firms, with supposed mastery over the data, have also jumped onto this bandwagon.
One problem is that there are several ways to express this figure, and they are confusing. Even the text of this article, and comments beneath, is confusing and possibly contradictory.
It starts by talking about:-
“In July of 2020, the consultancy Kekst CNC ran a poll asking Britons what percentage of the population has died of COVID-19. The correct answer at the time was around 0.1%”
Then:-
“Last year, Gallup ran a poll for Franklin Templeton in which they asked Americans what percentage of people who’ve been infected with COVID-19 need to be hospitalised. Less than 20% of respondents gave the correct answer of “1–5%”.”
Then:-
“Out of 100 people who are infected with the Coronavirus, how many of them die from the disease? …the correct answer for Western populations is less than 1.” (i.e. less than 1%)
“…despite more evidence accumulating that the IFR is less than 1%.”
So we have:-
A) The percentage of the total population who have died of Covid-19. The correct answer at the time was around 0.1%
B) The percentage of those infected with Covid-19 needing to be hospitalised. ….the correct answer of “1–5%”
C) The percentage of those infected with Covid-19 who will die from the disease? …the correct answer for Western populations is less than 1%
“…despite more evidence accumulating that the IFR is less than 1%.”
So if A and C are both true, does this suggest that there is approx 1/10 chance of dying of Covid-19 if you get infected? No, that’s not right….
Or if B & C are both true, if you are hospitalised from Covid-19, do you have a good chance of dying? (“1-5%” vs. “less than 1%)?
What about the overall chances of getting infected? With or without hospitalisation, and with or without subsequent death?
I’m old and confused, and I’m going round in circles here! Deciphering this lot is like one of those GCSE maths questions:- If it takes 1 man 10 days to dig a hole, how many days does it take 7 men to dig 2 holes? Well, that’s simpler than the above problem, but I hope you get my drift.
Then you have the infographic in the comments:- 1342 little black figures (infected people), with 2 of them dead (0.15%). Surely that doesn’t square with A? Or C?
Exactly what’s what? It’s no wonder people are confused. I’m a staunch anti-lockdowner, and sceptic about the number of people who have _really_ died of Covid (supposedly well over 100,000 people, when only 76,000 more people died in England & Wales in 2020 than 2019 (ONS figures), and I’m confused by the figures in this article and comments.
Can someone clear up my confusion?
Anyway, surely it’s not surprising that the confusion about exactly what the figures are is widespread. I’ve taken a deep interest in the last year, and I’m confused by their presentation here.
Actually, Frank – the apparent inconsistencies aren’t that mind-blowing , given the inherent margins of error in these things
The message is that Covid is no big deal, but that the brainwashed public thinks it is.
The whole think is encapsulated in your last but one paragraph – no-one knows how many have died from Covid in the strict sense, but it’s certainly nowhere near >100,000.
In order to sustain this narrative, the government actually require a critical mass of people to believe false statistics, as peddled by propaganda campaigns with their ludicrous assertions, such as “1 in 3 of us may be an asymptomatic covid carrier”..
This is why any information contrary to these figures that comes forth and has a large enough readership is labelled as “misinformation”.
Isn’t this insane? A campaign of misinformation to counter true information… information that might be too reassuring to people for the level of fear prescribed by SAGE’s SPI-B subcommittee to be maintained! It’s as if the objective to keep people fearful has gone from being a means to an end, to being an end in itself, and taken on a life of its own.
David101, your second paragraph.
Which is why Starmer was quick to accuse the Hero Publican of Bath of giving out false information* once he realised how much press coverage and airtime the initial incident was going to get.
*when he put to Starmer a few lucid and succinct examples of the harm lockdown was doing to the country.
In other news – night found to follow day – Pope is a catholic!
The latter statement could not of course be made (even in relevantly modified form) for the ABC!
Come on Charley,
Even this old Catholic knows our present Pope is not one. He is a Jesuit.
Comments on another blog I frequent (where covid occasionally comes up in the chat):
Having had my jab last Friday, with no sore arm this time and only a minimal headache as side effect, I feel very reluctant to venture far. My ‘ extremely vulnerable ‘ husband had his on Saturday and we both feel we want to wait at least the 2 weeks it takes for the vaccine to take full effect.
I too have had both jabs but still get a little irritated when people do not keep the 2 metres. For me I don’t know how long it will take.
We had our second shots in February, but it hasn’t changed our habits, still masking and social distancing. It’s going to take time before we can relax I think.
Like all of you I too am hesitant about mixing even though I’ve had both jabs some weeks ago. Why do people think that hanging a mask below their nose is ok?
All utterly taken in by the government/media scare tactics.
I’ve had TeH Virus. It was no big deal. Just like CMO Whitty said last March. “For most people this will be a mild illness”. But that was before he was taken off to a warehouse in East London to be “reprogrammed”.
Sounds like a miserable twat, let them rot hiding at home.
Can’t help but notice the bias ATL. Whether or not more people die from flu than Covid depends on the flu. There is no simple yes or no. To say Republicans are wrong by believing flu kills more than Covid is to deny the Spanish Flu amongst others.
“One of the most surprising things to emerge from the pandemic, at least from a lockdown sceptic’s point of view, is how overwhelmingly the British public has backed the lockdowns. For example, a YouGov poll taken in March of 2020 found that 93% of people supported the first lockdown. Another poll taken in January of 2021 found that 85% of people supported the third lockdown.
While some lockdown sceptics claim these polls can’t be trusted, I suspect they’re not too far off the mark.”
I’ve been answering YouGov surveys for the past 6 months now and i can well believe that this figure is massively out as the questions are incredibly leading and at times downright disingenuous and deliberately intended to get a certain answer.
Just had a massive argument with my Partner. Apparently the BBC (yes unfortunately she still insists on listening to it – normally when I’m out!) are scaremongering about the number of deaths and cases in India (and the lack of hospital beds probably due to the usual incompetence). When I pointed out that each of the above was a tiny proportion of their massive population and the BBC were once again reporting things out of context. All she could say was “you’re always quoting numbers at me” and I should stop complaining about people wearing masks in the street! Sorry folks but that’s what we’re up against. Very frustrating.