The Danish Government report released on January 3rd 2022 states:
Until Sunday December 19th 2021 nearly all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples were tested with variant PCR to identify Omicron cases. As of Monday December 20th 2021 only a representative sample of the positive SARS-CoV-2 samples are being tested with variant PCR at TCDK, hence, the number of identified Omicron cases does not represent the total number of Omicron cases in Denmark. In the Clinical Microbiological Departments, the PCR samples are from hospitalised patients prioritised to be variant PCR tested.
The report gives a very conservative estimate of the cumulative number of omicron cases by January 2nd, which is 55,673, because the Danish authorities stopped sequencing all COVID-19 positive cases on December 20th. Since then, as stated above, only a daily random sample has been sequenced to see the proportion of Omicron cases in the population. When I use this daily proportion starting from December 20th and multiply it by the daily number of all SARS-CoV-2 positive test results and subtract the number of the daily established Omicron cases I can get a reliable estimate of the true number of cumulative Omicron cases on January 2nd, which is 143,237. From December 29th onwards until January 2nd I assumed that 90% of COVID-19 diagnoses were the Omicron variant.
The median length of time from COVID-19 diagnosis to hospitalisation and death is about six and 13 days respectively. Until Dec 19th all COVID-19 PCR diagnoses were sequenced and the cumulative number of Omicron cases can be summed since November 21st. On December 20th the number of Omicron cases can be calculated by multiplying total number of COVID-19 cases by the pro-portion of Omicron cases in the representative sample. By December 20th, i.e., 13 days prior to January 2nd, the cumulative number of omicron cases was 43,200. As median means that 50% of deaths have accumulated by January the 2nd among the 43,200 I further assume that in this 43,200 fixed cohort another 18 will die after January the 2nd.
Thus I can calculate an estimate Omicron case fatality rate (CFR) in this fixed cohort, which is 36/43,200 = 0.08%, which corresponds roughly to that of seasonal flu’s mortality rate. When further I assume that only half of the true COVID-19 infections are diagnosed, which is a reasonable assumption for many reasons, I get an Omicron infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.04 % indicating very low lethality. My calculations are conservative.
Since January 2nd until January the 11th there have been an additional 140,270 infections, assuming conservatively that 90% of new cases are Omicron variant cases. Fewer people are classified into the severe category of whom 44 (three fewer than on January the 2nd) were on ventilators as of today. The expected number of additional deaths among the accumulated Omicron cases 289,507 by January the 11th is 214. It is interesting to note that less than five of ICU patients, i.e., one in twenty in Denmark on January the 2nd, were Omicron patients.
It is possible that my CFR and IFR estimates are affected by the fact that Omicron cases have been especially prevalent among younger people. However, a recent Danish paper indicates that boosted patients, i.e., thrice vaccinated individuals, prevent secondary Omicron transmission effectively. Older age groups in Denmark are well protected with booster shots, which also protect them against severe disease. Thus, the observed low Omicron mortality in Denmark is attributable to very likely lower pathogenicity of Omicron variant itself and favourable effects of mass vaccination.
We will get an accurate final CFR estimates from Denmark very soon as the Omicron status is known for all hospitalised patients. Already by now we can with great confidence deduce that the Omicron variant is at least 16 times less lethal in a highly vaccinated population than the SARS-COV-2 variant circulating in spring 2020 in Europe and the world.
The most important issue related to very fast spreading Omicron is how it affects the labour force in short term. In South Africa, the Omicron wave peaked rapidly and lasted around two months.
Mikko Paunio is an adjunct professor in epidemiology at the University of Helsinki, Department of Public Health, and an advisor to the Finnish Government.
Stop Press: The Danish Government has just announced the easing of restrictions at the end of this week, having concluded that Omicron is a lot milder than previous variants.
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For me (and probably most others) Delta was 3 days of Lemsip (then 7 days of house arrest).
So I loved the pic on the article!
I’ll bet all the scariants have an IFR under flu. But the point is not health it’s to inject as many as possible with the all cause mortality raiser.
Of course. People have short memories.
Proper flu is debilitating meaning days in bed, feeling horrendous. it also kills tens of thousands of people in this country alone every year, especially the elderly and people with other conditions. We seem to have forgotten what being ill is actually like from colds and flu. I’m not for one minute saying that covid isn’t some bad strain of flu but the government and the media have made it out to be far worse than it actually is in relation to the response to it.
We’re also living in a time where the general population in the western world isn’t exactly what I’d call healthy – fed on a diet of sugar, fags, booze, junk food, fillers and whatever else the food industry can entice us into eating in the name of profit. It’s slowly killing us and then disease swallows us up much faster and easier.
We all know this, they all know this, and the wheel keeps turning, the earth keeps spinning and we are where we are.
TL;DR – humans, on the whole, are morons and we reap what we sow.
Absolutely agree.
Every morning I visit our local CO-OP and Londis and in front of me are people ranging from schoolkids to the middle aged and most of them are loaded up with junk food/snacks,energy drinks and fags.
I do wonder if some people would recognise an oven or a kettle if they tripped over them.
Education, education, education…..or what the left Teaching Unions deliver as such.
I have had an asian derived ‘flu virus 3 winters ago – 6 weeks of very serious ill health. Family member got over Omicron in 5 days flat.
Like so much of life post WWII, many facets of everyday existence are a charade as you point out, and two of the Four Horsemen have been and continue to be, the Food and Pharma “industries” – stitch on an ill educated masses and is there any wonder why we are where we are – eg obesity/mental health crises. A third Horseman is the vast majority of GP practices who willingly peddle prescription remedies from ” settled scientific studies” funded by the pharmaceutical industry and mandated by quangos such as NICE.
What a “world of shit” we are in if the incumbent PM is seen – by some people/media outlets/Edwina Currie types – as the only viable option amongst 650 wannabes.
I think we should discount what Currie says. She probably fancies him – having got a taste for PMs.
They sure do – I am amazed at the number of people who tell me that someone had Covid and were “really ill” and when questioned they were in bed for 3 days with fatigue,headaches etc. I know this virus is awful for a very small number of people but when did we get to a situation when anything other than feeling great is “really ill”..
And they all parrot the ‘covid’ narrative, as if there’s nothing else to be ill from.
When my children were growing up I was at home all day, taking care of our environment, cooking nutricious meals for when everybody came home at the end of the day. I was also there during local epidemics of Measles,etc., to care for them and nurse them back to health (I’m one of those who believe that the early childhood diseases are invaluable for the building of healthy immune systems, and these multi-jabs children must have now do their innate immune systems no favours).
We have allowed the feminist movement and Big Pharma to dictate how we raise our children, and hand them over to the state without a thought. How many mothers feel up to cooking nutricious meals after a day at work? How much easier to send out for a pizza, or heat some frozen readymeals from the freezer.
Nowadays, of course, few families can live reasonably well with only one salary coming in – especially when we look at today’s ‘essentials’ – foreign holidays, a smart car, you know, all the things that are supposed to make up for the loss of a proper fulfilling home life.
Kids sick? Go to the doc, who is proper skilled in the writing of prescriptions for some chemical cosh to remove the symptoms. Actually, do we really need doctors now when we can just visit the pharmacists for much the same result?
As a species, we get sicker and sicker. Where did all these allergies come from? Could the chemical cocktails we each have inside us from the many and varied medications we swallow have anything to do with it?
Huxley said, decades ago: “Medical science has made such huge advances that there is barely a healthy human left”.
When I grew up in the 60s, it was a bit like that. More awkward, because the old man was a shift worker, though. Don’t think we actually had a freezer for quite a while then, no long life milk either; it was delivered by a local farm that had a small herd of cattle (and they took back the empty bottles to use them again).
Re your para about pharmacists, where I live it’s often the case that you see the pharmacist first, then get the Dr next door to sign it off ( 2 separate buildings side by side), then hand over the cash. In that case, it’s the pharmacist’s recommendation that goes through. Happened to me at least once.You can work around the ‘waiting list’ that way as well.
The government’s official IFR (written answer given by Jo Churchill MP, Under-Secretary of State for Health) last August was under 0.1%, which, yes, is less than the flu. That was for Delta, which was by then a monoculture in the UK having displaced all other scariants.
Thanks!
Does anyone know how they tell the difference between all these variants. Or o they just make it up?
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It’s game over. They know it, we know it. My guess is we will now see a lot of back-covering and scrambling for cover. When it becomes clear this virus has been over-played, and the vaccines, as well as not working, are also harming and killing lots of people, the public will want answers. I am already seeing a very change in the tide in the MSM. None will want to be seen to be on the wrong side of history.
2022 will be very interesting.
I sincerely hope you are right but I believe Digital ID ie State surveillance is the end game.
TPTB aren’t going to let that go.
Get ready for blame to be heaped on the refuseniks – who are of course holding everyone’s freedom back. Cue our oh so caring new P.M., whoever that may be.
Too many sheep will continue to swallow the bastard BBC’s propaganda hook line and sinker.
We’ve got a fight on our hands to preserve as many unmodified human beings as possible.
well said.
You’re right, I fear. The beast is wounded – beware.
These dung beetles are worse than the top fascists.
It’s a joke and I am loudly pointing out now the discrepancies in my group of friends and colleagues:
-In the work we have 3G rule and I need to test while most of my covid infected colleagues are vaccinated so they are free to enter the premises and spread the virus (currently 20:1 ratio to vax:unvax)
-All the country is in 2G or 2G+ mode and infection rate is higher than ever! So mandates are miserably failed! Also masks failed with the same logic!
-Everyone is okay after a few days so this is nothing more than a flu or cold!
-If original covid was highly infectious than omicron is what?? Hyper infectious? Because now covid spreads really fast! So the initial ‘highly’ infectious time was clearly a lie!
So this scamdemic is definitely over and we need to return to normal.
These points gets also to vaccinated and it seems to me that everyone agrees on these points.
??
Viz. van Tamm resigning his commission as the ship sinks slowly from the stern…
Well there you go… Funnily enough when I had this strange undiagnosed flu-type illness back in late 2019 I took… Lemsip and Strepsils. Within two weeks I was back running again. Funny that…
No no. 5K deaths a day!
I only trust Borisgov and Their Science!
Seriously: most people STILL do!
Gov cannot tell the truth even if they wanted to because The People won’t allow it!
Somewhere someone has just shit themselves on this and demand a lockdown and all the paraphernalia along with it
Ignoring colds can cause loss of covid industry incomes!
Time for more detention without trial then
A pandemic of the hysterical
Beginning to end.
I’ll borrow that phrase if you don’t mind.
Help yourself
The only thing that will change is that the “measures” will be justified by preparing for the next wave of the “deadlier variants” or “next pandemic”. Which is precisely the sort of motivation that Bill G. dreamed of – because it cannot be argued away using facts.
Also, to keep the vaccination train and vaxx pass going, any outbreaks that are bound to happen once natural immunity wanes, will be invariably blamed on the “careless unvaccinated who refuse to do their part to protect us from resurgence of the pandemic”, quite regardless of whether they are more infectious or not.
Personnel change on the rayc laptop.
How long do you think “natural immunity” lasts…?
Yeah, Gates is now repeating what he said at COP26, that these new first generation non-sterilizing ‘leaky’ and rapidly fading Covid vaccines don’t stop infection or transmission, so we need to pour hundreds of billions into developing the second generation of vaccines.
Second generation for what? The common cold?
Or has he got plans to launch something nastier than was visited on us in 2020?
Hopefully someone somewhere has something nasty and terminal planned for Gates
It would be useful to see the Omicron CFR by age, and also a decent unbiased estimate of the impact of vaccination on mortality.
The interesting thing about pre-Omicron variants was that the mortality-by-age relationship was steeper than influenza — covid’s CFR was lower than flu for those aged <50 or so, but much higher for those aged >70. The high all-aged CFR was caused by the CFR in the elderly. If this relationship has been kept then Omicron will have become rather benign to anyone of working age.
Best first guess, I’d have thought, would be that the steep age-related curve would no longer be present, because this one seems to be being dealt by the body as a common cold. Its effects are probably similar to other viruses dealt with in the same way.
Just a first hypothesis, obviously, but that would be mine.
The Pandemic is now winding down because all of the infrastructure for the great reset is now in place. They don’t need the pandemic any more.
Track and Trace isn’t going away, it will still collect your test data and contacts.
The NHS app isn’t going away, it can be expanded to record your social credit status.
Andy Burnham’s massive ANPR system for Greater Manchester goes live in May, track and trace for your vehicle. Combine with ‘Smart’ Motorways and your every journey will be recorded.
We see the £37bn on test, track and trace was a massive failure because it did nothing to help the pandemic, but that is not the purpose. We now have a fully built and ready UK-wide tracking and tracing system connected to a central database. It isn’t a failure, for the Government, it is money well spent.
There is no legal requirement to upload your LFT result to Track and Trace. Therefore there is no requirement to disclose contacts.
Simply deny them the oxygen they need to promote and manipulate the plandemic.
Exactly.
We were conned in to believing that T & T was a massive waste of money. It wasn’t. It was a T & T of our road networks.
Yeh! That was my take month’s ago, when the real SCIENTIST’S and Pfizer manipulated data confirmed that the vax didn’t stop infection or transmission, it merely alleviated symptoms…
So it’s Lemsip with potentially disastrous side effects then
Interesting article. I’ve been informally guessing CFR/IFR for the UK from the publically available headline stats. Throughout the autumn both cases and deaths were remarkably steady, and the CFR was consistently ~0.3%, with a case defined as a positive test, and a covid death defined as death for any reason within 28 days of an initial positive test. If any pro-lockdowner feels those definitions are unfair to their position, then I’d be delighted to learn why.
Like the author above, I assumed actual infections were 2x identified cases (the ZOE people use the same figure) which would imply that the IFR in the autumn when delta was dominant would have been ~0.15%.
Omicron is harder to judge because the rapid spike in cases makes the calculated CFR very susceptible to the timeframe for infection that is chosen. The highest CFR I can generate within the 28 day limit is ~0.25%. Using the shorter lag time of the article above reduces the CFR to ~0.2% or slightly under.
Previous links have suggested in ~40% of hospital cases, covid is incidental which would place the actual “of-covid” CFR in the UK in the 0.1%-0.15% bracket, and the IFR around half of that at 0.05%-0.08%. A little higher than the figure above, possibly due to an older cohort in the UK and/or discrepancies in definition of “covid death”.
Let’s hope the govt don’t lift all the restrictions at once, or who knows what carnage will ensue.
The DHSC told Steve Baker MP in July 2021 that the IFR was 0.096 =~0.1%.
Probably mostly Delta then.
Now we’re told from various sources the IFR of Omicron is 0.04-0.05%.
Yes, what absolute carnage we risk if we return to our pre-March 2020 freedoms and face this severe common cold with ‘no protection’.
Ivermectin not only cures Covid/Flu like symptoms but recently researchers found that Ivermectin inhibits Esophageal Cancer! Search “Ivermectin induces apoptosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma via mitochondrial pathway” on googl. This is great news. No wonder they say wonder drug. Buy Ivermectin while you still can! https://ivmpharmacy.com
low mortality is NOT due to the ‘favourable effects of mass vaccination’. Figures from Scotland – one of the few places to break down by vaccinations – clearly show more hospitalisations and deaths on side of vaccinated… see detailed analysis https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/pandemic-injected-covid-narrative-implodes-white-house-doubles-down-on-lies/
if your immune system is pummelled you are obviously more likely to get sick – not counting adverse events. This is a ‘pandemic’ of the vaccinated.
Just putting this out there- should we (the un-jabbed) thank the (multiply) jabbed for driving the variants to mutate, in record time, to mild Omnicron?
I know what you mean but without the sheep we wouldn’t be in Clown World.
So, I thank them for nothing.
And upon reflection, I actually hate them.
Has Paunio adequately discussed the segmentation of covid risk by age and pre-existing illness? He avows (I think) that his conservative 0.04% excludes the triple-jabbed extreme-vulnerable, but the IFR of the rest, that is, of the fit and well and aged under 65, in Spring 2020, was, according to Prof Ioannidis, 0.01%. Is omicron inherently less lethal, or is it producing less lethality because the vulnerable are protected?
Sorry – intended to reply to babsiep
The real concern is the 40% rise in deaths of 20-60 year olds as noted by the ceo of a large life insurance company in Indiana for Q3 and Q4 2021. He presented this info last week on a conference call. Question, what is causing all these deaths? You can fiddle most data. Deaths though are the one thing that does not lie.
Perhaps Daffy Duckford should be informed of this.
Be that as it may.. the fraud is over. Video: Experimental Injections. “Biggest Crimes Against Humanity Ever Committed.” Anna de Bouisseret Explains Who Will be Held Liable Under the Law. By Anna De Buisseret, January 08, 2022
Even so.. the poor Finns are done for by their corrupt/threatened/ignorant Medicos. .. Video: Experimental Injections. “Biggest Crimes Against Humanity Ever Committed.” Anna de Bouisseret Explains Who Will be Held Liable Under the Law By Anna De Buisseret, January 08, 2022