We’re publishing another guest post by our in-house doctor, formerly a senior NHS panjandrum, this one looking at the latest hospital data. Turns out, staff absences are the reason London hospitals are under pressure, not a surge in Covid admissions due to the Omicron variant.
How quickly things change. The Daily Sceptic has asked me to provide a brief update on the unfolding situation after the Christmas weekend. Less than two weeks ago at the Downing Street press conference, Professor Chris Whitty said “by the time we get to Christmas I expect the majority of people going to hospital to be Omicron cases”. In response to a journalist’s question about Omicron, he said: “This is a really serious threat. How big we don’t know but everything we do know is bad.”
So, how bad is it?
Hospital admissions are rising, but not necessarily due to Omicron, according to Chris Hopson, the CEO of NHS providers.
Talking to chief executives this morning, the sense is that admissions are rising but not precipitately so. What’s particularly interesting is how many chief executives are talking about the number of asymptomatic patients being admitted to hospital for other reasons and then testing positive for Covid.
Trusts are not, at the moment, reporting large numbers of patients with Covid type respiratory problems needing critical care or massively increased use of oxygen, both of which we saw in January’s Delta variant peak.
Hopson is in error on one point – the peak in January was the Alpha variant. But then attention to detail is optional for NHS executives. On the other points around the reduced number of admissions and the rising proportion of incidental Covid cases, the published data support his remarks.
In this brief update on the unfolding ‘nailed on’ Omicron catastrophe, I will present a few graphics illustrating what the public are permitted to know so far.
First, the figures for the Christmas weekend. Graph One shows the admissions from the community with Covid in London hospitals in December of this year and last. It compares figures from December 2020 (the brown line) with admissions for December 2021 (the blue bars). If the confident predictions about imminent catastrophe from SAGE are to come to pass, the Omicron variant really needs to up its game. So far, it is failing to deliver. The current admission rate is less than half that associated with the Alpha variant at this time last year.
Graph Two shows the real problem in London. The blue line represents staff absences from London hospitals up to December 19th. This is the most up-to-date data we have. The NHS collects information about absenteeism on a daily basis, but will not be providing the next public update until January 13th. The brown line represents patients testing positive for Covid in London Hospitals (bear in mind, as Hopson points out, the brown line is a gross overestimate due to incidentally positive cases).
It can clearly be seen that there are far more staff off work ‘due to Covid’ than there are patients in hospital ‘with Covid’. How many have tested positive but are asymptomatic? How many have the sort of mild symptoms we’d usually associate with a cold, which in normal years would not require absence from work, nor any tests to confirm the presence of a seasonal upper respiratory tract infection? My central point is that the current pressure in London may be because we’re sending staff home for extended periods when they’re not unwell, rather than an influx of severely ill patients. Simply put, is it possible that an over reaction to a perceived threat is causing the problem rather than the Omicron variant per se.
Graph Three provides further context in relation to the overall inpatient burden in English Hospitals across the whole pandemic episode. Even taking the figures at face value and discounting the known over estimations in relation to primary diagnosis, it is clear that the 8,474 patients currently in hospital with positive Covid tests is substantially lower than the 19,783 in hospital on the same day last year – this equates to a Pritchard ratio of 0.42.
All other observable metrics such as ICU occupancy, data from the ZOE app and, of course, the now negligible death rate from Covid points to a much better situation than at this time last year. Hospital admission rates expressed as a percentage of positive tests in the community continue to fall from a peak of 9.6% in February to 2.1% now. Patients testing positive for Covid occupy 6% of NHS beds, compared to 22% this time last year. The widely predicted re-emergence of winter flu has also failed to materialise – cases of flu are still 95% below the numbers seen in 2019-20.
Despite this stable looking picture across the piece, multiple expert commentators have yet again been quoted in the mainstream media forecasting imminent catastrophe and demanding complete societal lockdown. There have been some reasonable points made around the possibility that the data over the Christmas weekend may be subject to a reporting lag, and justifiable concerns about the possibility that intergenerational mixing over Christmas could lead to more cases occurring in vulnerable older people. The SAGE meeting notes from December 23rd make reference to these possibilities. However, the general tone and content of public remarks is at variance with the available public information.
For example, Professor Danny Altmann, an immunologist based at Imperial College London, told MailOnline that Boris’s decision not to impose any further restrictions seems to show the “greatest divergence between expert clinical/scientific advice and legislation”. I fail to understand this view. His remarks are congruent with the letter published in the Lancet earlier this year by 122 self-identified experts accusing the Government of conducting a “dangerous and unethical experiment” by lifting restrictions on July 19th, which of course turned out to be nothing of the sort.
Professor Altman knows far more about immunology than I do. It would be enlightening if he could explain to the Daily Sceptic why experts like himself are so constantly antagonistic towards the Government, given that over 85% of the U.K. population have now been vaccinated against Covid – rising to 95% among the over-60s – on top of substantial natural immunity generated by infections over the last 12 months.
Other self-identified experts from Independent SAGE are promoting a subtle rebrand of societal restrictions by referring to legalised social limitations as ‘health protections’. To my mind this is an overt politicisation of science – readers should be very concerned by such Orwellian language.
When I hear expert advice that does not correlate with observational experience I lean on the motto of the Royal Society – Nullius in verba, roughly translated as ‘take no man’s word for it’. To that end and to enable non-experts like myself to assess the data for ourselves, it would be helpful if the NHS could release daily updates on Covid discharges from hospital and details about the length of stay of Covid patients. This information is available and provided to all NHS chief executives in daily email briefings, so why are taxpayers not permitted to see it? If scientists and public health doctors are pressurising the Government to restrict citizens’ right to make their own choices around freedom of movement and association, isn’t there an onus on the NHS to provide all relevant information relating to that advice?
Further data packets should be released on Thursday. I will update readers later in the week.
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“Restrictions for an indefinite period”.
I suppose that is what will happen here then?
I don’t see why it wouldn’t, at least by SAGE’s logic.
It will indeed. The new normal is exactly this. They are telling us what is happening.
if you look at their deaths curve, basically they haven’t had many.
the vaccines dont stop you getting it or spreading it – we know that – only naturally gained immunity will do that
they are supposed to reduce symptoms
but they are unlikely to work well in those towards the end of their lives
isn’t the above exactly what we’d expect? why is it perplexing?
just to add
being an island and whatever else they did, they avoided it until 2021. so when they get infected, its going to be a later (ie milder but more transmissable) variant.
when we got the new more transmissable variant most people had already had covid of one form or another
We’d need more data to make a real judgment of what’s going on, i.e. age of those infected, age of those dying, vaccination status, time since vaccination, other factors, etc.
At the same time that the Seychelles have a serious outbreak, we’re busily congratulating ourselves on the success of our vaccines, which includes Astrazenica, which have been more effective than first thought.
The two scenarios don’t go together, so something clearly doesn’t add up. And restricting movement hasn’t solved the problem either.
It’s why comparison across different testing regimes that use different protocols based on different tests with the same fundamental problems, we just get noise.
Are people dropping dead more than normal?
Also, its clear this all happened post vaccine, is that just another coincidence? They appear to have had little before that.
i agree the more data the better
but the main difference between UK and Seychelles is that they had barely a case until 2021
we had reached herd immunity or thereabouts naturally
they are a naive population who happened to take some symptom depressing drugs. why wouldn’t they have an outbreak?
Seasonal effect.
The fact that most Brits don’t wear face knickers outside.
The fact that antisocial distancing is widely ignored.
Hence, large numbers of Brits have doubtless been exposed to the Dreaded Lurgie and acquired natural immunity.
But wait until the flu season comes round. Last year, all covvie, no flu. A miracle!
This year, all flu, no covvie, all thanks to the snake oil.
A miracle!
Meanwhile, the Seychelles’ economy collapses totally and they fall sobbing into the arms of the IMF.
….but they are unlikely to work well in those towards the end of their lives
They are unlikely to work at all, as their intended job is to cut huge swathes through the great masses of the human race. It should be absolutely clear to all by now, that the Covid event is a put up job and that it has a very ulterior motive.
Vaccines do stop you getting infected and they do stop you infecting others. The data show that clearly as does every other vaccination.
Sharpen your pitchforks ladies and gents…
The vaccine depresses the immune system.
People previously or currently exposed to COVID develop the actual virus immediately following vaccination.
Some of them die. Unnecessarily early.
THE END.
ROLL CREDITS.
The virus has once again defied expectations.
Specifically how? Are they seeing an unusual number of deaths in the Seychelles? Is all-cause mortality significantly higher there now, and was it in 2020, than a long-term average?
or done exactly as we’d expect.
forget the vaccines – they aren’t even supposed to reduce transmission – just prevent serious illness and deaths
seychelles avoided it until this summer. now they have a minor outbreak. what’s so perplexing?
Indeed – did the isolate the island and this is what happens when the open up? Bit like NZ and Australia have to come…
‘Minor outbreak’? No – just the usual over-detection of RNA fragments = casedemic.
It is DELUSIONAL arrogance to think that any viruses can be eradicated.
You mean it’s defied your beloved snake oil?
My insincerest commiserations, little fon.
Can we see excess deaths.
Can we see average age of deaths.
Who the hell knows what is heppening without data.
But we know that ALL the so-called vaccines just stop symptoms they DO NOT stop infection or ability to infect.
So why is anyone ‘shocked ‘ by this, its inevitable in an island that cut itself off now opened up because its economy is going down the pan. Soon to be NZ and Australia. And its bugger all to do with vaccines that don’t work.
It’s only perplexing if you think any of this madness bears any genuine relationship to realistic public health concerns. If you think that, it seems to me wishful thinking.
“Cases” ??????????????????????????????
Here we go again – round and round on the imaginary roundabout.
Here you go again, policing comments, an agent for the enemy
I saw “Here is their cases curve…” and was irritated like you @RickH
Working in israel as well https://in.news.yahoo.com/israel-brings-back-mask-rule-130434104.html
and coincidentally almost the same number of deaths per million as seychelles
ie not that many
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
so little naturally acquired immunity, so prone to having some more (as only natural acquired immunity will stop you getting and passing it on – the vaccines dont even claim that)
Maybe they have taken a ton of money to be ‘shut down’. Only the cabal can holiday there now
More Vaccine less immune system more illness.
This fight against asymptomatic symptoms is something to be admired really. They really don’t want people catching an illness that causes no illness!
A crude analysis of the shown data is peak cases (per million) 4000. Peak deaths (per million) 13. CFR = 0.32%. That’s eerily similar to influenza…
Nowhere near. You’re confusing IFR and CFR.
IFR for SARs2 is about 0.3
IFR for influenze is about 0.05.
Huh? Why on Earth would you think I have confused CFR and IFR?
My basic and crude ‘analysis’ has to be CFR right? Cases and deaths?
While Influenza CFR’s are subject to change and dispute, it is readily accepted that it is around 0.1%-0.2%.
This peer reviewed paper has it at 1.28%:
Epidemiological and clinical profile of Influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 in Odisha, eastern India – ScienceDirect,
but we have to accept that testing for Flu is much lower than for the panic ridden testing environment we have surrounding Covid-19.
IFR’s for both has to be lower. And antibody testing regarding SARs2 suggests your figure of 0.3% is accurate.
I didn’t mix the 2 up though. I think you got hung up on the crude 0.32% figure I posted.
There is a complete failure of logic here. Cases are persistently high so they are going to continue measures which have failed to work. Well, that is in line with almost everywhere else – lockdowns don’t work.
And neither do ‘vaccines’.
Combine the two and you get the worst of all possible worlds.
So they want to crash their tourism and hospitality. Still going with the global green theme
The average age in Seychelles is 34.2. Who are the Covid patients overwhelming the hospitals, how old are they, and which vaccine did they have?
If, as I suspect, Sinopharm is causing enhanced disease people need to know about it.
Agree.Why can’t we have the age of the new cases? If most adults are vaccinated,there can’t be many around unvaccinated to sustain the outbreak. Was it the South african variant around from the beginning hence low effect of Astra?
The most important question is,are these cases unvaccinated children?
Starnge that we don’t have answers to such important questions.
This …
The majority of vaccinated people in Seychelles have received China’s Sinopharm vaccine – the one (IMO) that is most likely to cause ADE.
I attach one of the graphs from MissConceptions from Twitter.
Who knows what the cause is – smashed immunity from the vaxx leading to death, recording vaxx deaths as Covid deaths, ADE, all three? I don’t know if we will ever know because we can’t trust any of the data.
This is devastating for a local economy that’s almost 100% reliant on tourism.
Guessing our billionaire masters do not want any vistors to their holiday safe space?
This is so damn stupid. What else can be said?
The Seychelles didn’t have any cases until they started vaccinating everyone. Interesting…
It’s the big C again – coincidental.
bit like Gibraltar then
Perplexing?
THE BLOODY SNAKE OILS DON’T WORK.
What’s perplexing about that, for Chrissake?
THE BLOODY SNAKE OILS DON’T WORK.
Sorry to disagree with you (because I do agree generally) but I think they might actually be working perfectly as intended.
Maybe the answer is to create a new subculture for the unvaccinated (ie specifically excluding the vaccinated) that is so much more exciting and enticing than the enslavement offered to the vaccinated?
These jabs did not bestow immortality. OMG.
Choice of vaccine matters.
They chose the 2 with by far the worst efficacy against infection.
AstraZenica is spectacularly poor at preventing infection (Especially against 351 variants which is dominant there) and Sinopharm is significantly worse again.
UK has the same problem – spiralling cases as its relying on AstraZenica as its majority vaccine.
If cases are your worry, AZ wont help at all.
The. Chinese. Vaccines. Don’t. Work.
cases i.e. false positives i.e. mugs who get tested
Wonderful abuse of statistics – Total population Seychelles 1M , total deaths 63. In small population and low infection mortality data is often meaningless. Society has got to recognise that although epidemiologists like testing it is essential meaningless and social distancing and lockdown kills in other ways. Just wait until New Zealand starts to unlock!
Population not 1 m but around 100 000
Comparing the recovery/fading of the virus in the UK with the rise in infection in the Seychelles and then drawing the conclusion that the mRNA is better is NOT good science or science of any description. In the UK the virus faded away with much the same rate last year without vaccines and the vaccines roll out began before the natural peak of an endemic virus around Dec/Jan and the UK is on a different latitude to the Seychelles. What can be construed from this is that the AstraZeneca appears to make matters worse and this can be confirmed by looking at all countries where this has been injected. As for mRNA, we will not know what the long term affects are until at least two more ‘waves’, formerly known as seasons.
Seychelles an economy based on fishing, tourism and coconuts, Thats a lot of fish and cocnuts to sell on the open market to keep a countries economy going. Not going to happen is it? So self inflicted destruction and poverty will obviously make for healthy citizens, Well done that Government, congratulations the WHO. Bet the people in charge have secured their exit.
I always find it hard to swallow when someone writes an article about the ineffectiveness of the experimental biologicals. To save face they must throw in a salvo. In this case, it is some drivel about how effective the mRNA experimental biologicals are in comparison. I would refer the author to the CDC vaers and to the states (in USA) now experiencing one breakthrough case after another.
When developing their first mRNA product, BioNTech undertook 3 to 4 years of controlled testing before its release.
I wonder whether Covid 2 would have burned itself out before the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was shown to be safe?
I have just received my third letter from the NHS/Imperial College telling me it is my last chance to take part in an important study to measure how many people have had Covid19 by testing me by sticking a 6in wand up my nasal cavity. You would have thought they would have got the message by now!
Power to the People
https://youtu.be/hy7bmdDGKZ8
Everything Geert Vanden Bossche predicted is coming true. Time for LS to revisit his theories?