The latest quarterly report of the Mortality Monitor from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, with data to the end of September, brings some encouraging news and some worrying news. The encouraging news is that it shows overall mortality for 2021 so far is about average, meaning Covid has not yet managed to cause more people to die in 2021 than in a typical recent year. The worrying news is that, despite this, mortality in the under-65s is significantly elevated, and it’s not immediately obvious why.
The Mortality Monitor provides graphs and data for the cumulative age-adjusted mortality for England and Wales in 2021 compared to the 2011-20 average. This is a curve that starts at zero on January 1st each year, rises each week that there is above average mortality and falls each week there is below average mortality (see above). It rose at the start of the year during the winter Covid surge then fell as mortality dropped below average in March until, by mid-June, 2021 had below-average cumulative mortality. It started rising again at the end of July, and by the end of September had reached 0.3%, so about average. Note that the 2011-20 average includes the high mortality of 2020, but also the low mortality of 2019. Adjusting the mortality for age ensures that the ageing population is taken into account.
However, while overall mortality is about average, there are big differences by age. Mortality for over-65s is below average (which drives the overall trend, as the large majority of deaths occur in the over-65s), but mortality for under-65s is significantly elevated.
Cumulative mortality is running below average in those aged 65-84 at minus-0.5% and in those aged over 85 at minus-1.6%. But in those aged under 64 it is significantly up at 7.4%.
Why is cumulative mortality below normal in the over-65s but elevated in the under-65s? What is killing younger people but not older people? Could it be Covid?
I’ve plotted below ONS data showing excess mortality for England and Wales (using 2015-19 as the baseline and with no adjustment for age) with a breakdown between Covid and non-Covid.
We can see that excess mortality fell more quickly, went lower, rose more slowly, and stayed lower in those aged over 65 than under 65. Covid is credited with around two thirds of the excess since week 27, while just over a third of the excess is non-Covid – since week 27, 1,464 of 3,896 excess deaths in under-65s, or 38%, are non-Covid, while in over-65s, 5,086 of 14,047, or 36%, are non-Covid.
Once these are adjusted for age in the IFA’s figures (and with the 2011-20 baseline), the excess in the over-65s becomes, as we have seen, sub-zero, while the excess in the under-65s remains significantly elevated at 7.4%.
Why are both Covid and non-Covid causes of death having a disproportionately large impact on under-65s? The impact of Covid seems unlikely to be because of the later rollout of the vaccines, as the difference has only become larger as the vaccine rollout has completed in the younger age groups. The lower total vaccine take-up in the younger age groups may be part of the explanation, as might deaths due to missed healthcare and other health impacts of lockdown. Have adverse reactions to vaccines played a role?
While the average overall mortality, driven by below-average mortality in the over-65s, is something to be glad about and a salutary reminder that the pandemic is not causing an elevated loss of life in 2021, the high mortality in the under-65s is concerning. The Government should make a priority of investigating the causes behind this.
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The vaccines appear to be having a disproportionately adverse effect on younger age groups. I don’t know why and can only speculate. Maybe the more efficient immune systems of younger and healthier people are reacting better (but really worse) to the spike protein damage in blood vessels and causing more clotting.
It is entirely wishful thinking to hope for the government to investigate this because such an investigation might turn up evidence that is likely to eb damaging to the pharmaceutical companies.
And excess mortality is a concept that I have come to mistrust – it depends on what those in charge of the system consider to be the expected rate of deaths. Expect more deaths and you get less excess.
But thanks for the article – it confirms that my confusion about what is going on is rooted in reality.
I think that you are exactly right.
Oldies take flu jabs – whether they are effective or not is highly debatable. However, such jabs do not appear to have severely detrimental effects……and if they do, then it is easy enough to conjoin any death with symptoms of other ailments and/or old age.
Old immune systems react differently to young ones.
Jabbing the young against cold and flu viruses is superfluous because healthy people fight colds and flu very efficiently, and then develop natural immunity.
It is becoming increasingly clear that jabbing healthy people is potentially dangerous………it is also highly likely that jabbing on top of natural immunity is potentially lethal.
YET NO STUDIES……YET NO FOOT OFF THE JAB PEDAL…..JUST FULL STEAM AHEAD.
This is psychopathic criminality.
a lot of money in it though
I expect the vaccine companies want us to take vaccines in the way we take vitamins
They’ll mandate it in bread?
Some vaccines are indeed taken orally….
“excess mortality is a concept that I have come to mistrust”
Anyone who has noted the failure of modelling should do so. It is a modelled baseline.
I think that age standardization is also questionable in this context as it, too, buries some underlying assumptions.
For this sort of purpose in a single country, over a limited period, simple population standardization is the clearest.
I’m often surprised that ‘sceptics’ aren’t very sceptical over these basics.
Older people are far more likely to be taking some form of medication which prevents blood clots than are younger people. Given that the so called “vaccines” cause blood clots, a higher post-vaccination mortality might be expected in younger people as a result of those “vaccines”.
and why is the UK the only country with a significant ‘excess mortality’ in the age group 15-44?
https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
Only England, none of the other uk nations. Also Hungary. But England has fared worst in this age group across Europe since the start of the so-called pandemic. 3 very significant “waves” of excess mortality in the 15-44 year olds, as yet totally unexplained.
yes, you are right – its England – and also Hungary which I hadn’t noticed.
It good be hot vials or lots.
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=244109
There is a correlation across 3 different vaccines, their lot numbers, and reported deaths/reactions.
That is impossible as a coincidence and look at how simple a query was needed to show it. So it’s not some fancy modelling.
That would explain unnatural differences in excess mortality, at least in terms of the vaccine impact.
Any country not supporting the EU is going to be given a higher excess mortality as a punishment….
from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59145846
“GP Dr Rosemary Leonard has been speaking to BBC Breakfast this morning about the Covid situation in her area.
Hospitalisations are creeping up, she says.
“We’re seeing a lot of Covid cases – particularly in young people who are yet to be vaccinated, but also unfortunately some older people who have not been vaccinated are being admitted to hospital,” she says.
“The vast number of these admissions are in unvaccinated people but some of the extremely vulnerable also unfortunately are now catching Covid.””
Buts that’s just not true is it?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1029606/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-43.pdf
table 3 on page 16 shows the vast majority of hospital admissions are amongst the vaccinated
They know we know they lie, yet still they lie.
I was watching a 9 part documentary on the vietnam war. washington created a metric for ‘ongoing success’. numbers of them killed vs numbers of US killed. If the ratio was high – the war was going well. The soldiers on the ground ended up killing civilians and counting them as enemy combatants and washington thought things were going great.
I get the same feeling here. The vaccine will save us. We’ve just got to get to 90% or 95% and those in the way will be steamrollered into submission. Nobody cares about anything but the % that have been vaccinated. I see the same in Oz and NZ. Obsession about magic vaccination goals.
At 90-95% jabbed…….then they can really start bullying the 5-10% unjabbed.
Any idea what the excuse will be with a 100% jab rate and people still keep getting sick and dying?
Sure, another variant, but at some point that won’t fly anymore. Then what?
They don’t care.
We are going into an age of Neo-communist, homogeneous equality……..that will be enough – being different and exercising free will be verboten.
Just as we have seen the elites exempt from masks, quarantine and green diktats on flying their private jets……..so they have also been exempt from getting the jab.
Does anyone really think that Johnson, Hancock, Javid, Raab etc. were given anything but saline??
they won’t need one. The point of the spike protein is that, as with most toxins, it will trigger a hyper auto immune response. The latter will be the thing that kills so you’d never be able to pin it on the vax – it will cause cancers to flare up, or conditions that were never known to the person to wreck havoc on the body.
Which is why, it is PARAMOUNT that we do not get to this level of uptake.
USA and Switzerland are well-positioned then … 60-65% jabbed, based on the last figures I saw.
Mike Yeadon predicted this last year describing it as plausible deniability. Now with the flu and booster ( Vax 3 and 4?) I imagine there will be waves of deaths under that category in the next 6 months
We’re very close to that in several countries now – the main example being Israel.
Easy.
They will continue but lie bigger.
“Good job we vaxt everyone – otherwise the death toll would be far higher”.
There is nothing that these duplicitous bastards will not stoop to.
But then again, it ain’t about health – it’s all about digital control.
And still the sheep can’t see it.
I truly despair.
But, hold the Line!
Happening in Ireland right now (93% jabbed). Our best protection against tyranny is to keep as large a group as possible unjabbed.
Of course, the irony for Ireland is that it never had a problem with Covid.
The situation in Vietnam was caused by fighting to a plan with numbers of required kills being generated by computer.
See BBC three part Documentary, 2007
The Trap, What Happened To Our Dream Of Freedom
Available on YouTube.
Predicted a great deal about how we got where are today.
Good find Steve.
Looking at the chart – if I’ve interpreted it correctly – it appears to me that the “vast majority of hospital admissions are amongst the vaccinated” are in the over 50 cohort. Below this age – and the younger you are – the more like it is that hos[ital admissions are among the unvaxxed. Doubtless, that’s the group Dr. Rosemary Leonard will claim she was referring to! However, what the figures don’t tell us is if the patients have comorbidities (or not). My guess is that many of them will have and it’s this that’s scewing the data. If underlying health issues were taken into account, I’d wager that the stats would mirror much more closely those for infections which show that the vaxxed are twice as likely as the unvaxxed to get infected.
I linked to this yesterday – but I’ll post it again as it’s germane to this discussion and very useful to anyone who’s not seen it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSKfanmsUWY&t=49s
lol – found this on the same page…
” Individuals in risk groups may also be more at risk of hospitalisation or death due to non-COVID-19 causes, and thus may be hospitalised or die with COVID-19 rather than because of COVID-19.”
“of” or “with” – as predicted they would finally realise this is an issue when its old vaccinated people dying
There is definitely fiddling going on with admissions to hospital.
Over here the line of 90% unvaxxed in hospital and dying has been trotted out for weeks. The only figures available are outdated and dubious, even though figures for everything else are up to date and detailed.
Including the graph on the public health authority website, showing hospital admissions by age up to 24 October. About 80% of admissions are in over 70s, around 65% in over 80s. The jab rate for these groups is over 90%. So although it is theoretically possible that some unjabbed over 70s are being admitted to hospital, no way do I believe that all/most of them are unjabbed. So that means the majority of people being admitted to hospital in NL are most likely jabbed, the fact that precise figures are not being shown backs that up. I guess they’re following the Germans, don’t give the numbers, as it only helps the anti-vaxxers. Which in itself suggests the figures do not favour the jab.
It’s crazy that they’re counting as a covid case someone who presents at hospital within 28 days of a positive test. How many of those would test negative on admission (if a pcr test even told you anything about true caseness)? It’s all in-your-face bullshit.
yes. and by their metrics I have long covid and have had it since my first paper round 37 years ago – ‘mild fatigue’
Dr Rosemary Leonard – put her on the list. She’s either thick, a liar, or both.
probably a mate of ‘the wards are filling up with covid kids’ NHS nurse mentalist from last autumn
I don’t thnk these people check the current statistics. They are quoting things they read from over a month ago and this is a rapidly developing situation.
yes, the science might change but it takes months for government policy and gobshites to catch up
the whole vaccine mandate rubbish is based on the hope from 6 months ago that this was a sterilising vaccine – which it isn’t
On Monday talk radio host Mike Graham interviewed a doctor who made claims about the number of pregnant women in ITU with covid. Mike was sceptical, and yesterday came the follow up
Mike Graham | 02-Nov-21 – YouTube
Starts 2hrs 5 minutes.
Pity Graham recently made himself look an idiot after months of good interviewing. It will be used.
These guys are doing a great job using FOIs to call out these fear mongering doctors.
https://citizenjournos.com/2021/10/19/the-matergate-lies-dr-emma-keelan/
I would encourage you to write an FOI to this hospital trust for the data on her claims. It is the only way to hold them to account.
Local Live Online (mirror group news) on the Covid bandwagon again.
Lead article ‘District hospital staff shortages put patients at risk’
Looks topical and interesting. .
Nope, it’s one weekend in June when one, non Covid, patient did not get the required diet. Report concluded Friday. End of.
‘Major regional hospital under pressure as more people visit A&E and Covid cases rise. Opel Alert! (That’s maximum pressure alert to you and I).
Topical and interesting?
Nope, it’s just a very lengthy piece asking people to use 111 before fetching up at A&E.
The only mention of Covid is when A Dr.tells us that “cases are rising among schoolchildren . . .”
Which, if even true, means nothing since they rarely become ill and almost never go to hospital.
Best stick to “woman spits at bar staff in cider fury” item that follows, it’s more topical and interesting.
Based on what I’ve heard through the grapevine, most deaths in younger people at the moment are suicides or fatal reactions to (you can guess).
Maybe it’s a conscious or unconscious feeling that life isn’t worth living in Covidia.
Your funny
“President Joe Biden said the child vaccine “will allow parents to end months of anxious worrying about their kids, and reduce the extent to which children spread the virus to others”.”
yeah – whatever
Let’s Go Brandon said “LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE “
and the MSM will facthunt anyone who disagrees
Think we’ve all probably got a good idea, eh!
Whatever it is, I’m certain its cause is government intervention in healthcare.
Maybe: –
Over 65s grew up in pre-computer era.
Under 65s grew up in era less connected with natural world – less familiar to them.
‘Unfamiliar’ often perceived as dangerous.
Adding something ‘new’ into ‘unfamiliar’ easily triggers fear.
Prolonged fear and restrictions damage multiple aspects of physical health.
For most over 65s virus was just a new version of already familiar – not scary.
Panic/intense fear is suicidal but also deaf and blind
Undiagnosed cancer is my guess. Everyone told to ‘Protect the NHS’ by not using it, now we are seeing the results.
yes. and I expect those under 65s excess mortality is heavily weighted to 60-65. which is really the start of people dying of old age – not helped when they have been terrorised for 18 months by the government. stress is a big killer – lowers resistance to everything
Absolutely
And who caused all the unnecessary and massive spike in stress?
You would expect cancer recorded as cause of death, surely?
Are they still not doing postmortems?
No.
A friend of mine died two weeks ago less than 24 hours after his “booster” shot.
Case referred to the Coroner. Within the week the coroner had determined death to be the result of pneumonia from which he had recovered two weeks previously.
In early 2020 he went down with C1984. Subsequently took the two injections and finally the “booster.” He was 66.
I wonder what killed him?
If I was a relative I would want a second opinion
There needs to be autopsies in all cases where the jab is even remotely suspected of killing someone.
There needs to be is right – which is precisely why it won’t happen.
Even if all the politicians and ‘scientists’ pushing this garbage had genuinely believed it was the right thing to do, that it would bring the ‘pandemic’ to an end – who of them would have the balls to admit to having pushed something that a) not only did not work but b) may have caused greater illness and death?
The idea of millions of villagers showing up with pitchforks and torches is more than enough reason for them to now bend over backwards to keep this covered up for as long as possible, even if that means continuing to cause more death and illness – their backsides mean more to them than yours or mine.
Great post. All of them have a massive incentive to double down on the vaccine narrative as they all pushed it. They certainly don’t want any stories showing that the vaccines are causing a large number of excess deaths. A big and honest person might admit they were wrong, but such people are apparently 1 in 20,000.
And so would I. Absolutely disgraceful.
I meant undiagnosed until it is too late to treat it.
Early diagnosis is key to beating cancer.
I always struggled with statistics and so would be grateful for some comment from folks who understand this stuff.
Mortality rate – (number of deaths per “a number”) expressed as a fraction.
i.e. 1 death per 100 people which is 1%
In the first year of the pandemic, 25 children (0 to 17) in the UK died “from” COVID, according to a major detailed study. There are approximately 12 million children in the UK aged 0 to 17.
The mortality rate from COVID for this group is thus 25 fatalities/12 million children = 0.0002 percent.
Easier to follow (for me): The odds of dying of COVID for this age cohort was 1 in 480,000 (12 million divided by 25).
However, only six “healthy” children (those without severe pre-existing or ‘life altering” medical conditions) died FROM Covid.
So the mortality risk for healthy children would be 6 deaths divided by however many children do not have severe pre-existing medical conditions. I’d estimate this number as about 11.75 million (i.e. 250,000 children do live with very severe medical conditions).
This would make the mortality risk for “healthy” children 6 deaths divided by a population of 11.75 million “healthy” children = 0.0001 percent.
Or: 1-in-1,958,333. Which can be round up to 1-in-2-million.
For context, the odds an American citizen will be struck by lightning in a given year are approximately 1 in 700,000.
What does this mean to a parent considering getting his child vaccinated?
Well, if your child does NOT have a severe medical condition, his or her odds of dying FROM Covid are approximately 1 in 2 million (even more microscopic if your child happens to be white).
Contrast this with the odds your young male child will develop myocarditis or perocarditis from the vaccine. Studies vary, but the “elevated” risk seems to range from as low as 1 in 3,000 to as high as maybe 1 in 15,000.
Myocarditis lasts for years if not forever. It can kill suddenly or years later, or lead to hospital stays.
Why in the world would a parent assume a 1 in 3,000 to 1 in 15,000 risk of developing this serious heart condition to avoid a 1-in-2-million chance of death?
You don’t need “science” to inform your vaccination decision. You just need statistics and a basic understanding of probabilities.
The vaccine is killing the under 65s.
Once this gets out Boris Johnson and his vaxxing gang must be subject to a Nuremburg type trial.
Until proper autopsies are performed and there is a real desire to find a link between the vaxx and deaths – rather than the opposite – they will do everything within their power to link the higher death rate to postponed treatment and diagnoses, more drinking and drugs, etc.
There was excess mortality here in NL for the month of September across the age groups, they said they didn’t know why as the corona deaths were far lower than the excess mortality numbers. Didn’t know why… right
Didn’t dare look into why.
It would appear that an instruction has been issued by the Globocap paymasters that autopsies and the like must NOT be undertaken.
Look at the case of the BBC reporter who died in the Summer. The family had a real battle for an autopsy. And what killed her?
My pal was dead within 24 hours of the “booster” but apparently he died from complications relating to an illness he had recovered from two weeks previously.
I wonder what questions the booster nurse asked before she injected him?
Fatally.
Job done then? Mortality in the over 65s going down, we didn’t kill granny… the ‘sacrifice’ of everyone else was worth it wasn’t it?
2021 is An Average Year for Deaths so Far
Depends what ‘average’ is doesn’t it? N.B. figures relate to England & Wales.
Whilst 2020 – at 603k – was well ‘above average’ in terms of 10-yr average….in terms of the past few decades, it was substantially BELOW average.
Until the late-80s, each year since WWII saw roughly 1.16% of the E&W population die. In the 1990s, this dipped to <1.1%. In the 2000s <1%, the lowest being 0.86% in 2011 and 2014………2020 saw 1% of the population die.
As for 2021……I think the article’s claim is WRONG whilst it may turn out below average relative to the long-term – it is NOT if placed relative to the 10-yr average.
In December 2020 all-cause mortality was 20% higher than the 10-yr average.
In January 2021, it was 29% higher. In February it was 27% higher.
Perhaps an usual ‘winter surge’? Or perhaps something to do with the start of the jabbing programme (8th December). Did people who would’ve otherwise shrugged off C-19 die after contracting the virus and their ADE-compromised immune systems killed them?
The spring months saw BELOW average mortality – perhaps because the winter took so many.
Then summer, numbers started rising again. July 2021 saw all-cause mortality 23% higher than the 10-yr average. September 10% higher. October is already above the 10-yr average with still one week to report – so it looks like it will be around 20% higher too.
Or was it the Pfizer vaccine?
Karl Denninger over at Market Ticker exposes some nasty statistical findings about vaxx (they’re not vaccines) batches or as they call them in US, lots.
Seemingly, data in the US-equivalent of our Yellow Card, VAERS, points to a Power Law distribution of adverse effects and deaths by batch, across ALL manufacturers.
A comparison in the gambling world would be, literally, Russian Roulette.
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=244109
Lockdown(s)
https://technofog.substack.com/p/cdc-emails-our-definition-of-vaccine?justPublished=true
Should be more widely spread
Probably suicides are a big factor, especially considering the higher rate amongst males, who tend to be more prone.
Covid-19 and the 8th Day Protocol. It deserves urgent global attention.
The problem with that graph is that it captures a picture (2011-2019) of the lowest ever mortality – i.e an anomaly as the basis of comparison.
If you look at mortality per million and in the age 45-64 age group which isn’t too far off what age standardisation does, you can see that all cause deaths in the age 45-64 age group aren’t normal when compared to years from 2010
Lack of access to healthcare and the experimental vaccines (or both) are likley to be the cause
And here’s the same for the 15-44 age group, Which because deaths weight heavily towards the older ages represents mortality around age 40.
Also running high
But the affect is not so obvious in the oldest age groups (when adjusted for population) see the age 75-84 age group
So given most deaths are in the older age groups the particularly high deaths in the
Interesting. I personally know 2 under 65s who ended up in hospital with life threatening conditions after the vaccine. They survived, thankfully.
But I suspect the over 65s are now going up too due to the booster (the chart already suggests it). My Mum (who had the booster and now regrets it) knows of 5 people in addition to herself who were very ill afterwards, one ended up in hospital. Some will not survive it, my Mum now thinks the government is trying to kill her.
And if you look at the age standardised mortality monthly figures from the ONS for England up to September and turn them into a Florence Nightingale diagram, then looking at mortality overall we have retreated to 2010 levels reversing the improvement from 2010 to 2019.
(note the dotted lines are years 2001 to 2010 and the solid lines are 2011 onwards so you can see we are above recent years in terms of mortality. The red line 2021 is on the inside of the dotted lines generally and on the outside of the solid lines)
A correlation matrix of all of the Our World in Data COVID-19 data.
https://bit.ly/3q3pa4G
“But What is Killing the Under-65s?”
Until they start doing routine postmortems again we won’t find out.
Presumably they think we haven’t noticed.
You answered your own question – 2/3 of the excess mortality under 65 is COVID-19, a disease which, according to sages congregating on this site, is only capable of killing 80+ year olds.
The figure for over 65s is probably lower because people who would have died this year died in 2020. It would be interesting to see that figure split between under and over 80; anecdotally, I have heard of quite a few people in their 70s who have died this year quite unexpectedly, from strokes and heart attacks. The closure of GPs is bound to have had some impact on those with chronic conditions such as diabetes and high blood pressure.
Our healthcare system is about to experience a tsunami! Potential side effects of jabs include chronic inflammation, because the vaccine continuously stimulates the immune system to produce antibodies. Other concerns include the possible integration of plasmid DNA into the body’s host genome, resulting in mutations, problems with DNA replication, triggering of autoimmune responses, and activation of cancer-causing genes. Alternative COVID cures EXIST. Ivermectin is one of them. While Ivermectin is very effective curing COVID symptoms, it has also been shown to eliminate certain cancers. Do not get the poison jab. Get your Ivermectin today while you still can! https://health.p0l.org
Joel Smalley has plenty of data on case rate in every country and state in the USA. He also has data on excess mortality. Would it be possible to have him as a regular contributor in the daily sceptic?