There follows a guest post from our in-house medical expert, formerly a senior NHS doctor.
At the end of March, I thought I’d written my last article for Lockdown Sceptics. All the data was pointing in the same direction – hospitalisations falling, vaccinations increasing. I firmly believed that we would be back to normal by the summer and there was no further need for me to comment on graphs of hospital admission data.
But I’m back. Not because hospitals are once again packed with Covid patients, but precisely because they aren’t. Last week I wrote a piece showing that hospital admission rates and intensive care occupancy continue to fall – yet we are exposed to a daily diet of catastrophising about rising community ‘cases’ and deadly new variants to justify continuing societal restrictions.
So, let’s have a look at the news of hospitalisations increasing. Graph One shows the admissions from the community broken down by English regions from April through to June 8th. Indeed, there is a scary looking increase in admissions. The biggest increase proportionally seems to be in the North West and the Midlands.
But let’s put this into context by looking at Graph Two. Not quite so scary. The Prime Minister is correct in saying that hospitalisations have risen in the last few weeks. He must have forgotten to mention how that relates to the overall context – in that the rise is negligible in practical terms.
And the case mix continues to reflect a different segment of the population being badly affected enough to be admitted to hospital. Graph Three shows a continuing increase in the proportion of younger people and a continuing drop in the older, more vulnerable age group admitted to hospital. The difference is substantial, consistent and obvious. We know that younger people are less likely to be seriously ill, less likely to need prolonged admission and far less likely to die. So why the panic? Continuing to measure ‘Covid cases’ in the community makes about as much sense as testing for the common cold – also frequently caused by a coronavirus, by the way.
If we consider the peak-to-trough progress of Wave One in spring 2020 running from the peak day of April 12th, 2020, and Wave Two in Winter 2021 from January 14th, we derive Graph Four. The angle of the downslope in Wave Two is steeper than in Wave One – the angle of the slope basically shows the difference between admissions and discharges. It may mean that as the winter progressed, admissions fell off faster due to the vaccination effect, or that the really vulnerable people had already died, or possibly that the NHS became more efficient at discharging patients (although I find that hard to believe). I have cheated a bit in this graph because I’m not clever enough to run two ‘x’ axes, so I have combined 2020 and 2021. On the other hand, I think this is a useful comparison. The first wave was effectively over after 100 days (mid-July 2020) and admissions did not start to rise significantly until late November 2020. With Wave Two we see a similar pattern – effectively over after 100 days (mid-April).
My question therefore is, why is SAGE predicting an imminent substantial rise in hospitalisations leading to an immediate Wave Three? Given that we know there is a measurable protective vaccine effect, and we know the epidemiology of last year when the virus encountered a naïve population, is it a reasonable assumption to predict a massive rise in severe Covid illness rates before winter 2021?
Is it really likely that the next few months are going to be worse than the same time last year unless we maintain the lockdown policies, mask-wearing and the restriction of foreign holidays – which by the way were permissible in 2020?
It may be that there is information suggesting that these outcomes are likely – if that is the case, I have yet to discover it, and I have actively searched. Isn’t there an onus on the Government to provide a better rationalisation for the continued restriction of civil liberties than “just a few more weeks”?
Regular readers will know I eschew hysterical over-reactions and am cautious about attributing bad faith to decision-makers – simply put, I’m far more comfortable discussing numbers than assessing motives. Generally speaking, I’m an adherent to the ‘cock-up’ school of disaster rationalisation – but the last few months have changed my mind.
I simply cannot understand, based on my assessment of the publicly available data, why restrictions are needed beyond June 21st, or why vaccinated people are prevented from foreign travel, or why 10 days of quarantine are necessary for people coming back to the U.K. from holiday. I cannot conceive of any rational explanation for restrictions on liberty any longer. Even the catastrophising hype merchant Chris Hopson (the CEO of NHS Providers) has reluctantly admitted that the link between infections and hospitalisation has been disrupted by the vaccination programme and the modelling predictions of imminent doom are completely incorrect.
And yet, we remain under more stringent societal restrictions than at this time last year – certainly in respect of foreign travel. Why?
Lockdown sceptics have been perplexed as to why our points have not landed with decision-makers or the wider population. I have concluded that the Government and its advisers are not playing the same game as more rational members of the British population. They select and present data points to justify political acts rather than as tools to inform decision making – a good example being Nadim Zahawi’s recent interview with Julia Hartley-Brewer, where he claimed that the “Indian variant” was more deadly than previous versions. When challenged on this point he resorted to waffle, which was calculated to deflect proper scrutiny of his assertion.
The last few weeks have brought me to the view that there is “something rotten in the state of Denmark”. For readers unfamiliar with Hamlet, the quote relates to the sinister politician Claudius, whose main weapon is the skilful use of language to manipulate others. In this sentence, Shakespeare implies systematic and widespread state corruption.
I also struggle to understand why important planks of medical ethics have been casually tossed aside in recent months. How is it that the Government is recommending vaccinating children with a brand new set of medications (the long-term effects of which are not known) for a disease that poses next to no threat to the young?
Why does the Government present “the Science” as a settled and incontrovertible set of facts, when scientific methodology relies on dissent, experimentation and discussion to arrive at the truth?
Why has there been a consistent exaggeration of risk by senior advisors, wheeled out by the executive as infallible paragons of public virtue?
Why has there been no official acceptance that in almost all cases the confident predictions made by these advisors about hospital admissions and death rates have been consistently in error by colossal margins? And why do they still retain such an extraordinary influence over decision making despite their appalling track record?
Why have these same advisors persistently implied that everyone is at equal risk from Covid when the available data clearly shows that the vulnerable groups are the old, the fat and the very ill and the risk to the majority of the population is extremely low?
Why has there been deliberate suppression by Ofcom of sceptical views about the veracity of Government statistics or the effectiveness of face masks? Why no reporting of substantial anti-lockdown protests in London? It has emerged that the official broadcast regulator classified reasonable opinions as ‘misinformation’ and ordered them to be removed from the airwaves. This is the behaviour of a banana republic – the equivalent of a military junta taking over the radio station – not of a modern democracy.
When John Maynard Keynes reflected on the behaviour of bankers during the 1929 Wall Street crash, he observed:
A ‘sound’ banker, alas! is not one who foresees danger and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional and orthodox way along with his fellows, so that no one can really blame him.
He could have been describing the groupthink of SAGE scientists, featuring the life-long champagne communist and behavioural psychologist Professor Susan Michie – the advocate of permanent mask-wearing. Does she hope we will wear masks forever in order to protect public safety? Or is she arguing for a daily reminder for all citizens that the state now controls every aspect of our lives?
Too many convergent strands and vested interests can be identified, suggesting a coordinated, deliberate, state-run misinformation campaign to justify the suppression of civil liberties. Too many for it to be a coincidence, in my view. The concept of the natural rights of man has been the bedrock of British and American political philosophy since first articulated by the 16th-century philosopher (and doctor) John Locke. The speed with which we have surrendered those rights has been astonishing – but, as Lenin remarked about the Bolshevik coup in October 1917: “Years pass when nothing happens – then weeks pass when years happen.”
Yesterday, on my way to the corner shop, I passed a man sitting at a pavement café wearing a mask, which he lifted intermittently to inhale from a cigarette. Having thought about it all day, I concluded that this was a perfect vignette of what has happened to the country as a whole.
The British state has convinced café man that the Covid virus poses a greater threat to his health than cigarette smoke. Café man was content to inhale known carcinogens and other toxic fumes into his lungs, but careful to replace an ineffective facial barrier for fear of inadvertently breathing in viral particles.
I doubt he arrived at this position from a rational assessment of available evidence about relative risks. He probably came to the view because a democratically elected British Government deliberately convinced him to be more fearful of breathing fresh air than of inhaling tobacco smoke.
Once upon a time, we would describe that as an unethical policy. Now it is normalised. I am convinced that the British public has been repeatedly and deliberately deceived by both elected and unelected officials on an unprecedented scale and on multiple issues over the past 12 months. We are living in a ‘managed democracy’ where technocrats define truth, manipulate the media and alter the ‘facts’ to maintain control.
The state machine is now the master of the people, not the servant.
A lot more dangerous than any virus.
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Won`t be going abroad again unless they drop all testing and vaccine passport mandates.
It seems you could save 10 times more people by weighing people and taking their height (and thus screening for heart disease risk).
And denying the fatties permission to travel, because not only are they covvisuperspreaders, they also overflow into your seat and squash you flat.
Tests are evil – Australia Is Revolting
Alex Belfield – annouces “car boot sale” in Trafalgar Square on Saturday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGaVZB7VnH0
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I jolly well hope Australia does revolt!
Reminds me of that quip “the peasants are revolting”…
Is that what they call “anti-social distancing”?
Squashing fat haters sounds like a good idea, also easy
A friend got ripped on Twitter for “fat shaming” when he posted a picture of dietitians at a conference.
I pointed out that actually he was DIET shaming. These people don’t notice that obesity, diabetes and other metabolic problems only became “epidemics” after high carb low fat diets were invented and even when they themselves become afflicted they don’t see the connection because diet like covidianism is a religion.
I renewed my passport in 2020 for one reason. A one way ticket out of this nightmare if the opportunity ever arises.
It amazes me how 2 weeks in the sun is all it needs to get the masses to comply with this nonsense!
I renewed my passport in 2020 for one reason. A one way ticket out of this nightmare if the opportunity ever arises.
lol Me too.
A one way ticket to where though?
With tyrannies past, there was always somewhere to flee. But now?
If I had unlimited resources I would get the right to reside in the USA and go to live in a red state, probably South Dakota which was the only one that didn’t have a lockdown of any kind AFAIK. I would also look at somewhere Mexico, and Sweden. I’ve no idea what’s required for Mexico. The US is hard unless you’re rich. Sweden at present are I think quite severely restricting UK citizens, not sure how that applies if your aim is to settle there and not sure how easy it is to settle there, you probably need a job or to be independently wealthy. All those places have drawbacks – the US federal govt is run by the evil, mad Democrats, Mexico is probably a bit more unstable, lawless and corrupt than one would like, Sweden are pretty pro-vaxx and maybe subject to bullying by the EU. Because there are no guarantees, more than one option is ideal. The other approach would be go to a very poor country that cannot afford lockdowns or corona technocracy, but obviously there are other drawbacks, or somewhere like Belarus or Russia but they are pretty authoritarian in other ways.
Russia would likely prove a much better bet than the UK, which is in the fast lane on the road to full blown totalitarianism. We have a government that is headed by certifiable psychopaths.
Having been to Russia a few times, I’m not sure I agree.
Unfortunately this is still probably the only place I want to live and raise a family
You’ve nailed it. The best exit currently is probably death. But most of our ilk are just hanging on for longer in case the global insanity suddenly all ends. It gets harder to imagine such a miracle as time goes on though. Love Eeyore
To somewhere else, that might just be better. There are no guarantees, of course.
Please read posts more carefully….
“if the opportunity ever arises”
Robert Heinlein wrote:
When a place gets crowded enough to require ID’s, social collapse is not far away. It is time to go elsewhere. The best thing about space travel is that it made it possible to go elsewhere.
No place is so crowded as the inside of a spaceship.
Change your physical appearance and the colour of your skin. Forget your language; learn to speak in Swahili or some other unknown dialect. Buy simple clothes without a logo. Learn to have only one good meal a day. Be human.
Come on dude, there’s a lot of broken families with people on deaths door. I know at least a few people who have had to watch parents funerals on Zoom, my brother included
Me neither.
Anyone able to post a picture of the wrapper/packaging of the PCR swabs?
I’ve seen videos regards them using ethelyne oxide which is a known carcinogen. Usually it will be listed as ‘eo’ somewhere on the packaging.
This is an emergency (apparently) and these people have been found guilty of profiteering. The response should be an immediate permanent ban on them pour encourager les autres, not being told ‘to stop doing it’ (which will have the opposite effect).
No; jail-time surely?!
I’m wondering how long it will be before similar stories are running over here. Given that all of our governments has matched yours for ineptitude that creates opportunities for shady business.
Oz/ Nz/France/etc?
Oz. AKA Lockdownunder.
The answer is no tests, not tests from “approved” providers.
Exactly. I know DS likes to keep us informed, which is useful, but this story seems a bit like the one about the quarantine hotels having crappy good or whatever – I don’t much care about any of that, because their mere existence is an offence and argument starts and ends with that.
So this story is mainly about companies being removed because they no longer exist
On two other topics:
Covid in Florida, has anyone a link or a sane summary of what is happening there? Casedemic with some deaths explained by high elderly pop, or more than that? Seems to have peaked, but what’s the story?
Secondly, Berenson pointing out a story on breakthroughs and deaths days after 3rd Pfizer in Israel. Too early to be sure, but is this the usual post jab death surge – or did someone let the “within 14 days” figures out by accident? Or ADE beginning? Or is the third jab just producing worse side effects in a cumulative manner, some of which kill the weak and old?
Back in the office now. I am the only one who has not had the Covid ‘jab’. You would not believe the amount of pressure I am under from colleagues to have it. The woman I sit near is acting like I am going to cause her to drop down dead at any moment. I have pointed out that the vaccine does not stop you catching or spreading the virus and also asked if the vaccine is so fantastic and works then what have they got to worry about if they come into contact with somebody with Covid. Also pointed out that even unvaxed if they do catch Covid they have a more than 99% chance of surviving but they are all having none of it. It is simply impossible to reason with them.
I know of one other person in my office of 70+ that is unjabbed, there may be others but judging by what I have heard most of them are jabbed. No-one has ever asked me – I only know about the jabbed because they like to talk about it, but then our office is without restrictions so those who do go in are probably not the worried ones, who will most likely be at home for a long time to come or forever.
My sympathies – you can’t reason with members of a cult.
You are doing the right thing, as even the cult members will come to realise when they encounter a wild virus in the winter.
Stay strong and just ignore them. I am expecting to go through this myself in the near future.
As Julian said, I know who’s been jabbed at work because they love to talk about it.
It reminds me of the situation late last year. I had a government job for six months and the talk after the US election was very anti-Trump. As evidence of the steal began to emerge they just stopped talking about Trump altogether. On the current trajectory I figure the ‘ahead-of-the-curve’ vaxxed up staff will be much quieter by Christmas.
Yes. I used to work in a Hospital as a volunteer. Caught “covid” whatever it may be, whilst there. Now, because I refuse the poison jab, I am prevented from returning – because I am now a ” bio hazard, to vulnerable people. LOL.
IF you think you caught COVID, just state you’re naturally immunised and it’s 8 times better than the jab PLUS it’s sterilising immunity unlike the jab.
and was free! apart from a couple of lemsips
They don’t believe that natural immunity is better than the jabs, because they’ve been putting out propaganda aka utter lies on this since summer last year, and perfectly intelligent people as well as the mob have believed them.
The jab is wrong in so many ways
it causes clotting
it activates wrong part of immune system
the mRNA jab can become part of DNA.
The side effects are worse than the disease for most.
To then believe that a single viral protein in the wrong place is BETTER protection is such magical thinking that you must regard the whole of modern-science as frankly nonsense.
Add in, it’s generally thought that damage to the body and long Covid are probably linked to the spike protein, and the jabs cause your own body to make….the spike protein! What could go wrong?
To those who do believe no explanation is necessary.
To those who do not believe no explanation is possible.
When people are in panic they swallow anything. Any Government has a heavy duty: punish or destroy all that, on those epochs, commit robbery.
The Fascist government started the racket. Now they’re surprised there’s a racket.
Are we surprised that the Fascists are that stupid?
Dozens of snake oil salesmen removed from major rogue government misinformation site. FIGHT. BACK. BETTER. Useful information, links and resources: https://www.LCAHub.org/
“Tested” for what……the thing that despite FOI requests all around the world has never been proven to exist.
So the Government’s been scamming the population with this pointless tests. Who’d a thunk it?
The test is utter bollocks regardless of how much it costs or who is carrying it out!!
PCR tests DO NOT WORK. The inventor said a PCR test can find ‘anything’ if spun for long enough. Anyone who has made money from PCR tests is a criminal.
Can we have our money back now too please. Either from the companies or the Government ministers who lead us to believe they were reliable and honest while washing their hand of any responsibility in the HMG ‘small print’.