Just 58 deaths from COVID-19 have been recorded today, the lowest number for a Saturday in six months. Ninety-six deaths were recorded last Saturday, meaning fatalities have fallen by 40% in the past week. MailOnline has more.
The figures come ahead of the easing of restrictions on ‘Happy Monday’, with larger outdoor meetings being permitted in England from March 29th.
Earlier today, Boris Johnson said that he can see nothing in the data to dissuade him from continuing along his roadmap, which would mean no curbs from June 21st.
The Prime Minister acknowledged cases could again spiral as restrictions are relaxed, with the ‘stay local’ order having ended in Wales and larger outdoor meetings being permitted in England from Monday.
But he said on Saturday that the “key difference” this time is that the rise in prevalence should be “sufficiently mitigated” by the successful vaccine rollout.
Worth reading in full.
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Just spotted this comment on the DM comments section (my highlighting):
I spotted that one too, as good as the one that suggested the government are covering up vaccine deaths now outnumbering covids.
I don’t know where the commenter from the DM is from but I can tell you that the good folk of Lincolnshire are getting very restive. People are wearing scarves under their noses as a complete token gesture and we are all enjoying traffic jams, school buses, and roads full of children.
But… the local economy is tanking. Shops, (those we have left after years of austerity), are shutting left, right and centre. It’s becoming blindingly obvious that Brexit is destroying agriculture, (great news for Lincolnshire food, if pubs and restaurants were open, but instead farmers are struggling to find these emerging markets they were promised.
The effects of hard Brexit are being felt. I’m becoming quite concerned that a lockdown is in now place to protect the pound.
Over the county border from you. It’s been minimal compliance for weeks here
https://therealslog.com/2021/02/20/why-the-globalist-banker-cul-de-sac-needed-the-covid-passport-to-survival/
“Unfortunately, mechanisation, robots, offshoring of jobs to Asia and a continuing explosion in Homo sapiens’ numbers all mean that this can never work when three idiots own most of the wealth and there’s not a lot for 7.75 billion earthlings to do, as such. So it’s either ‘take all the money off the idiots and give it out’ (not going to happen) or, um, er….something else that might prove to be very unpleasant.”
That’s the real worry, the something very unpleasant.
Oh, ye gods, not another Remoaner! The ignorance of such comments shows how truly obsessional some people have become.
I am far from a remainer, even though I am an expat. But the reality is that UK/EU exports fell 60% in Jan ( imports fell 30%) and in Feb/March lorries to europe are still leaving empty. The Farming/Food industry has not been made aware of the 3rd country requirements, ie you need an EU based importer to get products into EU; together with the complete shortage of vets needed to sign off on foodstuffs ( including pizzas!). It is a disaster that is completely disguised by the on-going covid nonsense.
I was a remainer. But I’m a nothing anymore. I regard concern over EU membership as a luxury of another time. When you have no freedom of movement, association, medical choice or bodily autonomy, and your democracy has gone awol, agonising about an economic bloc membership is neither here nor there.
So I’m not political signalling I assure you. I’m reflecting the outcome of my observations and conversations.
“ I regard concern over EU membership as a luxury of another time.”
Exactly. In actuality it always was an irrelevant masturbatory pursuit – as the present revelation of the real issues shows.
Certainly Brexit was meant as a distraction while they were putting the final touches to their plans for the Covid event.
Exports to Europe down 60%. It’s OK, We’ve signed deals with Singapore and the UAE. That’ll cover the shortfall.
What on earth has the desperate plight of the local economy got to do with ”hard Brexit”? And Brexit is certainly NOT ”destroying agriculture” – the whole difficult situation is because of the destruction of our economy generally. How odd that a remainer should see things in such a skewed way – though hardly surprising.
Absolutely correct. All the data shows huge drops in European traffic. Boris and his clowns are being saved by the Covid smokescreen. It amazes me that those who profess to follow the data on Lockdown failure refuse to follow data on other issues where it doesn’t suit them. The Hauliers bodies are very clear on the drop in cargo, not all of which can be put down to Covid. But never fear, the Government says producers can avail themselves of ‘new markets’, hundreds if not thousands of miles away who already have reliable and working supply chains. Having run food import businesses in both the Middle and Far East, I say good luck with that.
The lockdowns are clearly permanent, so we need to get used to it.
Ditto South Shropshire.
This lockdown will not protect the pound, and is not about Brexit. These same measures are being imposed across many countries.
What you are right about is that businesses not able to take advantage of Brexit as promised, and there’s really no sense to it when viewing how Florida, Texas, and other US states are doing. It is political, but the political motivation is unclear.
Note also, of course, that they are NOT “deaths from covid-19″: they are, at the most, deaths with covid, and, in many cases no doubt, not even that!
And remember the, errr, ‘accuracy’ of death certificates to with the ‘care home’ deaths in the winter. A cynic might note that if they hadn’t come up with Covid-19, something else would be written down instead in quite a few (real) cases, unfortunately.
Mortality from causes other than Covid are significantly below the five year average for 30 of the last 39 weeks. But one would assume that other cause mortality would be greater than, or at least on a par with, the five year average due to the lack of primary and secondary health care for those who needed it due to the ‘pandemic’.
Allegedly 200,000 people die (one third of all deaths) each year in this country from medical mistakes (iatrogenic deaths). The ‘pandemic’ might have actually saved a lot of lives by preventing people from seeing doctors.
Wasn’t there an episode in Italy quite a few years ago when the doctors went on strike and the number of deaths fell??
“Earlier today, Boris Johnson said that he can see nothing in the data to dissuade him from continuing along his roadmap, which would mean no curbs from June 21st.”
No curbs? Utterly implausible. They’ve just renewed the CV Act for 6 months. To think that masks, mass testing, travel restrictions, vaccine coercion, limits on crowd sizes, covid propaganda, SAGE and the rest of the coronamadness industry will simply disappear in June seems crazy to me. Summer will be Tier 1 or 2, who knows about autumn and winter but the covid, safetyism, public health fascism industry is here to stay.
Of course it is. Anyone who thinks otherwise is simply deluded.
CV until end September in time for the winter surge. You’re correct. This will never end.
Boris tells porkies, almost continuously.
It won’t be Tier 1, as that means zero covid cases. It will be Tier 2, for as long as they can get away with it.
Just to give a little perspective from across the channel. 190 deaths ‘with’ covid in France over the same period. Thats about 130 more than UK, in a period when normal daily deaths are 1,800 and there is no recorded increase of all deaths excess.
There is of course a fraction of vaccines been administered.
The panic in France is all about ‘cases’ and some hospitals nearing their usual limits for respiratory diseases.
I suspect the difference in cases is a function of LFTs rather than PCRs.
I suspect the difference in cases is a function of LFTs rather than PCRs.
And hospitals nearing their usual limits for respiratory diseases, if we assume that they aren’t lying, then why would that be anything special?
“The Prime Minister acknowledged cases could again spiral as restrictions are relaxed, …… But he said on Saturday that the “key difference” this time is that the rise in prevalence should be “sufficiently mitigated” by the successful vaccine rollout.”
Although one day’s figures are not a great hook to hang one’s hat on (it’s the trend that counts) the fictional (lying) narrative is continually reconstructed.
Of course, SAGE will keep schtum over the idiocy about a virus suddenly ‘spiralling’ or the incredible internal inconsistency and nonsense about the decline being caused by vaccines – especially those that don’t prevent transmission.
But how many will actually clock that this is spurious rubbish?
Unfortunately not many. And anyone that does will be quickly cancelled.
If they are intelligent, they probably already know it and deliberately keep quiet. Classic use of circular arguments to justify their policies as well. The very antithesis of real scientific methodology; they need to rename the committee.
New government agency, UKHSA, to be created. That money printing machine is a gift that just keeps on giving…
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-uk-health-security-agency-to-lead-response-to-future-health-threats
”58 deaths from COVID-19 have been recorded today…”
I presume that means 58 deaths WITH – that’s W I T H – the virus and not FROM it. Very likely people who were tested some time in March and died of something quite unconnected.
And as for ”cases (CASES??) could again spiral as restrictions are relaxed” – I wonder what happened to all those Rangers fans about three weeks ago who behaved ”irresponsibly” – not to mention that protest last Saturday which should yield thousands of bodies in the streets and many overwhelmed hospitals. And ”cases” will only EVER ”spiral” if enough dimwits allow themselves to be tested.
If not enough people are stupid enough to be tested then they will just lie. After all they gotten away with so much over the past year, that nothing would stop them.
In terms of data it is much better to work with deaths by date of death as changes in reporting delays make death by data reported impossible to interpret
One of the cleanest datasets to see trends in is English hospital deaths by date of death.
Here is the chart of English hospital deaths by date of death (averaged over 7 days). It’s a wonderfully smooth curve and very instructive. I’ve only included deaths up to 25th March and allowance is made for deaths that have occurred but not yet been reported, but because most deaths up to 25th March have been reported the error in estimating those unreported deaths won’t really affect the curve.
It’s worth saying these are covid labelled deaths (i.e death with or from). It’s wrong to assume this chart shows there was a second wave as big as the first, as what we are seeing this Winter is the normal seasonal increase in mortality in Winter packaged up as covid. That doesn’t mean that covid isn’t real, and it doesn’t mean it hasn’t been a harsh Winter mortality wise. It just means that pretty much all Winter respiratory illness is labelled as covid. This may reflect that SARS-C0V-2 is dominating the virome or that we are failing to find other viruses such as influenza.
English hospital deaths chart (by date of death)
It is really useful to look at the growth rate of deaths from the same English hospital deaths data. This is based on a geometric average for the 7 days around each date.
It’s annotated to explain what is happening.
The charts I’ve uploaded explode some popular myths
Myth 1: Growth in ‘infections’ in Spring 2020 was exponential.
You can see from a very low number of daily deaths that the growth rate started to decline so it was never really exponential. The daily growth rate was very high for about a month so deaths got to a high figure, but the growth was always declining so not exponential (at least not by any reasonable use of the term)
Seasonality and immunity must have been the cause of the slowing of growth from February. In fact allowing for the delay between infection and death you can see that infection growth was falling from around mid February.
It’s not just that infections peaked before lockdown, but the growth in infections was reducing as far back as February when very minimal measures were in place.
Myth 2: Infections in Winter 2020/2021 were growing as fast as in Spring 2020
The growth rate of infections reached about 10% per day in Autumn 2020, compared with about 40% in Spring 2020. Given that seasonality was tending to increase the growth in Autumn 2020 (going into Winter) but slow the growth in Spring 2020 (coming out of Winter) then the explanation for the lower growth in Autumn 2020 is likely to be higher population immunity resulting from the Spring 2020 ‘wave’.
Myth 3 – relaxation of lockdown restrictions in mid 2020 did something
The reduction in deaths from late April 2020 to late July continued throughout the entire period (growth was never positive) and oscillated at about the same rate throughout that period.
That just isn’t consistent with easing of lockdown restrictions. It is indicative that easing lockdown restrictions did nothing to change the curve.
And here’s the ONS chart that shows that there hasn’t been ‘a second wave of covid’. It’s from this publication
https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions2020
There has perhaps been a seasonal resurgence of covid or an unwinding of the first wave or a secondary ripple but not a second wave.
Of course it depends how you define wave.
Many thanks for the excellent piece of work. If BoJo cannot see any data then either he’s not looking in the right place or he’s blind; as well as being an outrageous liar
Yes thank you that has been really informative.
Brilliant analysis, thank you. But of course the govt and it’s MSM lackeys wouldn’t want us to see this would they.
“or that we are failing to find other viruses such as influenza”.
Or perhaps just ignoring them?
Just chart by the way – thank you.
Sorry that’s “Nice” chart – bloody predictive text!
It is left as an exercise for the reader to calculate the POPULATION fatality rate for their own age cohort from the graph here taken from the ISS – health institute – in Italy…
“Deaths from covid”
Come on Toby. Sloppy writing. If we allow the conceit that these deaths were all caused by Covid we’ll never get out of this spiralling nightmare.