In January 2022, a massive underwater volcano called Hunga Tonga suddenly erupted and shot so much water into the upper atmosphere that levels in the stratosphere rose suddenly by at least 10%. It was a genuine one in 100, even 200 year event and was reasonably expected to produce temporary weather changes around the globe. Sure enough, subsequent temperatures showed a 0.3-0.4°C upward spike. Needless to say, the Net Zero fanatics claimed the rise as their own and blamed it on humans controlling the climate by increasing the trace gas carbon dioxide. Today the Daily Sceptic can give wider publicity to sensational recent findings that suggest Hunga Tonga was the main culprit in producing the recent spike. The scientists directly link a dramatic cooling in the upper atmosphere of between 0.5-2°C to Hunga Tonga. It is generally held that there is an anti-correlation between the lower and upper atmosphere and cooling at the top produces warming at the bottom due to a number of complex atmospheric processes.
Hunga Tonga was an unusual volcanic eruption since it produced few dust particulates that usually cool the surface. Two recent land-based eruptions, El Chichon and Pinatubo, caused a temporary downward spike of around 0.5°C. The team of Colorado-based scientists found that the Hunga Tonga cooling was “comparable in magnitude” to the stratospheric warming caused by the two surface volcanoes in 1982 and 1991. The scientists reported “good agreement of observations with chemistry-climate model simulations”. “Cooling is mainly due to Hunga Tonga H2O [water] impacts,” they state.
This is dramatic stuff. It appears to promote Hunga Tonga as the prime cause in explaining the recent spike in temperatures. Indeed it could be concluded that the temperature rise should have been a little higher – and higher even still if the effects of a recent strong El Niño natural oscillation are included. Satellite observations, confirmed by computer analysis, shows stratospheric cooling of 0.5°C to 1°C in the middle and upper stratosphere during 2022 through middle 2023, followed by stronger reductions of 1°C to 2°C in the mesosphere after the middle of 2023, note the scientists. Last year, two distinguished atmospheric scientists observed the anti-correlation between the higher and lower atmosphere and suggested the lower stratosphere cooled by approximately two degrees per degree of warming nearer the surface. Where the troposphere has been anomalously warming, the lower stratosphere has been anomalously cooling “and vice versa”, note the scientists.
Needless to say, there has been no mention in mainstream media of these interesting and important findings. In fact, mainstream media are in the last knocking of a scare that has done valiant service in the cause of pushing the Net Zero political agenda. There was something almost heroic about Mark Poynting’s latest effort for the BBC titled ‘Record January warmth puzzles climate scientists’. The warming was said to be due to “emissions of planet-heating gases from humans”, but, continued Poynting, scientists say they cannot fully explain “why last month was particularly hot“. It might be suggested that they could stop relying on reanalysed computer model data and look at the accurate satellite temperature readings. As shown below, they give a different picture with the temperature anomaly dropping like a stone in the last three months.
But the BBC, in common with most mainstream media, does not do satellite data – some might say because the trends in those data do not fully align with Net Zero fear-mongering. For some inexplicable reason there is safety in numbers by relying on dodgy, urban heat corrupted surface measurements, pseudoscientific weather attribution guesses (another day, another once-in-a-hundred-year event) and garbage in, garbage out computer models. As regular readers know, during the Great American Free Speech Terror, Google AdSense demonetised the UAH operation in early 2022 on the grounds of publishing “unreliable and harmful information”. Since then UAH has provided a guide to the recent temperature spike starting around 2023 as the widespread climate effects of Hunga Tonga seemed to kick in. Is the recent downturn, obvious to all except committed Net Zero fanatics, likely to last? Recent falls in sea and air temperatures suggest the figures are now on a sustained downward trend. While local area temperatures are not much of a guide to global trends, it is interesting to note that few commentators mentioned that last month in the UK was the fifth coldest January since the turn of the century.
Curiously, there has been remarkably little scientific work published into the climatic effects of the Hunga Tonga eruption – one suspects due to a politically contrived shortage of funds for academics trying to investigate natural explanations of the anomalous trends. But there have been sceptical champions and one of those taking an interest in Hunga Tonga is Javier Vinos. Writing in Dr Judith Curry’s blog, he observes that nothing even in alarmist models of the effect of recent small CO2 annual increases on climate could have led us to expect such a large abrupt warming. “There is no study to suggest that the gradual increase in CO2 could lead to a sudden increase in climate variability,” he notes. Writing in July 2024, he identified the Hunga Tonga volcano as the “prime suspect” for the warming spell.
The image above shows that the extra water vapour from the eruption took about a year to blanket the northern hemisphere, an effect that can be seen with the dark green tones. “Thus, there are dynamical events in the stratosphere that have the appropriate time lag to coincide with the abrupt warming in 2023,” he adds.
It hasn’t stopped the Armageddonites promoting climate psychosis, of course. And there are few alarmists more alarming than Professor Andrew Dessler of the Texas A&M University. Last July he tried to head off any Hunga Tonga warming malarky by stating that his research indicated the volcano eruption had actually cooled the Earth, “similar to other major volcanic events”. By dismissing the volcanic eruption as a major factor in the recent warming, Dressler said he hoped his study would reinforce his point that “human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are the primary driver of climate change”.
While it may still be possible to debate with some alarmists, such as LBC Radio’s favourite Jim Dale – although after his recent call for climate deniers to be outlawed there might be a small chance of a pre-emptive citizen’s arrest – not so with Dessler, who told Joe Rogan in 2022 that there was no debate on the “fact” of climate change. “My feeling is that I won’t debate the science. So the science is set,” he claimed.
And you wonder where the BBC gets it ideas from. Onwards and upwards, like the Hunga Tonga water plume, we press on.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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Once more unto the breach, Sir Chris Morrison. We know all too well by now those oafs at the British Broadcasting Commentariat never let scientific debate get in the way of the fairy story that pays their salaries out of licence-payers’ money.
The settled science con has been trashed any number of times, globalist shills have given their own heist away any number of times.
What’s left, other than trust in Trump to flush the whole man-made climate claptrap down the toilet bowl of history once and for all?
I’m confused.
I keep reading on here that there hasn’t been any significant warming in the last 10-15 years.
And now it turns out that there’s been a spike in temperature recently.
Does anyone actually know anything about the climate – and by that I mean actually knowing enough to be able to make any reliable prediction?
There is no global temp.
In some locations you can claim a cooling since 1880. In others a slight warming.
The average temp in this country is still bobbing around 14C. It hasn’t changed.
The temp measurement sites are largely fraudulent (airports, roads, on top of my wood stove etc). Few have existed continuously since 1880.
Satellite records – only available for 40-50 years – reveal little to no meaningful change in temps. Climate is independent of plant food (Co2 falls out of climatic processes).
Today I am sat in Sussex, bloody cold, contemplating going for a run. I know that come March, the Met will declare Feb the hottest month evah worldwide. So who do I believe? My lying eyes, my freezing butt in Feb, historical temp records, the medieval warming and little ice age periods, the 1940-75 ‘ice age’, or fascist idiots money laundering, accreting power, and playing god?
I know.
No it isn’t Just as there is no average global temp, there is no average UK temp.
Some things lose their meaning when you average them, and temperature is one of those things. Mainly because temperature isn’t an amount of anything. It is just a condition.
Stewart, think of it like your house. What is the average temperature in it at present? What does that actually mean? Is it hotter than yesterday or not?
once you start averaging everything to one temperature it’s all meaningless. Let’s face it +1 degree C for the UK would be very welcomed, would the birds die off, insects disappear? Where would +1degree C be a problem? Even in the Sahara it is cold at night.
It’s just amazing how many supposedly sane people are taken in.
I have made the same point many times on here.
There is no temperature of the planet. Everyone is just making it up.
My point is and has been on several occasions why does the DS indulge the stupidity of making statements about the temperature of the planet.
It looks even more ridiculous when after claiming there was no change now it’s explaining why there has been (supposedly ) an increase.
Globally, there has been some small warming recorded for the last few years. How much of that is attributable to dodgy data we don’t know, but probably some. I’ve been telling my climate worried friends for the last three years that three natural forcinqs have been in operation: Hunga Tonga, El Niño and the solar maximum have all been additive.
I am quite sure that there have been increases and decreases throughout the planet, depending on where you take your measurements. It’s a big place, with variable temperatures.
BillT, do you find that your friends will listen and accept what you’re saying? I find that my friends won’t even discuss it, would rather believe the BBC and their newspapers, and it’s making me feel quite isolated. Luckily my husband is absolutely on board so we’ve got each other but it worries us that so many otherwise quite intelligent people can be so blinkered. How do you get through?
Hi Fran. As a first step, I run through the obvious questions: why did natural variability magically stop in 1880? Why did temperatures decline 1940-1980? If climatologists admit that CO2 by itself cannot cause the observed temperature increase (and they do), what other factors might be in play? If they are open minded, then they will concede that “the science” is not settled and there is room for doubt.
There seems to be a perverse attitude of wanting to hope there is room for doubt, but not quite taking the leap of anti-faith to get there. It’s a slow process. The dailysceptic is a vast source of reference data of scientific papers and I forward them to people I’m working on.
I’m impressed!
Thanks Bill. I think there may be a bit of a ‘head in the sand’ attitude among my peers, born in the 1940s. A tendency to change the subject rather than engage with it. This recent Hunga Tonga caused wet weather may be a way in…there’s an interesting recent Tom Nelson YouTube BTW, Ned Nikolev from U of Colorado. I won’t pretend I understood all his equations but his summing up at the end made a lot of sense and was worth waiting for.
The answer is NO—–There are no experts or scientists who know what the climate is going to be doing in 10 or 50 or 100 years time. —-But modellers make “projections” not “predictions”. There is a subtle difference. The climate models do not churn out “predictions”. They are “projections” all based on assumptions, guesses and speculations, where many of the parameters are either poorly understood or unknown. —–Yet Politicians use output from these speculative models to make climate policy. These climate policies are actually worse for us than the projections from the actual climate models, but ofcourse this whole issue was never about the climate in the first place. But the speculative models that government and mainstream media like to present as “science” gives them the seemingly plausible excuse to put in place policies they have long craved. —-Eco Socialist World Government, with climate as the excuse.
Brilliant as ever Chris. This article deserves a much wider audience.
The eruption is also the cause (or a big contributary factor) in the seemingly never ending dull and overcast days, is it not? Plus all the rain.
The land around us is continuously soaked, the amount of rain we are getting is astronomical and as you say the never ending overcast days….all typical of such an eruption….
A lot of our land has been sodden for the best part of two years – a slight rainfall, and we get surface water again. But I kind of expected this since Hunga Tonga. Temperatures? Milder winters, miserable summers ie lots of cloud cover at all times
It is so darn obvious that something has changed recently, only a Nut Zero zombie would deny that the Eruption is not effecting our weather…ever since it erupted and spread all,over the planet, the rain is near constant and the cloud cover hardly ever lifts….
Yet not a word is said by the usual suspects.
I’ve been calling this out since the day it happened
Yes I mention it whenever I can and I point out that it is sweet water that is falling and refilling the underground aquifiers so that is a plus.
For some inexplicable reason there is safety in numbers by relying on dodgy, urban heat corrupted surface measurements, pseudoscientific weather attribution guesses (another day, another once-in-a-hundred-year event) and garbage in, garbage out computer models.
Huge loss of face and authority, fear of isolation and ostracism, cognitive dissonance, vested interests, the high moral ground, and malicious intent. These, and other reasons keep people towing the party line and sucking up the received wisdom.
Unfortunately, I know a lot of people who fully believe this bull. So thank God for the likes of Chris Morrison, who offer a path to better explanations for events.
Climate Zealots Ignore Facts Prefer Lies
What a timely article by Chris Morrison, pointing out the warming effects on world climate caused by the Underwater Volcano Hunga Tonga in the Pacific Ocean.
And yet in the news today closer to home, after assuring people all week that there would be no volcanic eruptions near Santorini in Greece, scientists are now warning that the Underwater Volcano Kolumbo near Santorini is about to blow. Please notice the alarming correlations:
— The last time Kolumbo erupted was in 1650.
— Little Ice Age: “The NASA Earth Observatory notes three particularly cold intervals. ONE BEGAN ABOUT 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, all of which were separated by intervals of slight warming.”
If January was the warmest ever, why did I use a lot more gas for heating than I did last year? And as for February so far – over double last year.
Exactly……it is no way a warmer winter here.
“#sensational findings”. For one minute I honestly thought this would be a discussion of all the astounding spending via the cia/usaid piggy bank. How about writing something about what Mr Musk and his team have uncovered in the USA. Now that is “sensational findings”.
why are some social media outlets behaving just like msm?
This is the problem with the “Sherlock Holmes” principle being applied to science. It’s not enough to prove something simply by arguing that you can’t think of any other explanation. There was another explanation! The climate hoax is an embarrassment to science. And don’t get me started on non scientific primary school teachers “proving” the greenhouse gas principle by demonstrating that a cylinder of CO2 has more heat capacity than a cylinder of oxygen. We have raised a generation of non scientific numpties.
No matter what happens it is all due to humans. ——This is the mindset of the rabid environmentalist phony planet saver. But when everything that happens is due to your theory then you are not indulging in science. —But as many already know who visit this site, climate change has virtually nothing to do with science and never did.
From the revelations in the US from the exposure of USAID that are literally spending billions of US dollars to fund left wing causes, including funding thousands of news agencies all over the world, including the BBC, it is clear what is driving this insanity. Produce the left wing propaganda or lose your funding. We always knew it would come down to the money. The fix for climate change is not Net Zero or the Paris Accords or to produce real science or well reasoned articles, it is to shut off tax payers cash from funding the left wing propaganda and executive salaries.
As you say in the article, it took a year for this eruption to filter into the atmosphere fully. If this article’s assessment of the eruption is correct, the ‘spike’ will dissipate over time. It will be interesting to see the linguistic gymnastics of the eco-zealots, sitting on their fat media and charity salaries, as they try to explain away a subsequent cooling. Now doubt they will assume wide-spread idiocy and short attention spans, alongside widespread MSM maskirovka, will come to their aid as they present ‘settled’ science in their attempt make fools of us all.
Rubbish, at least for NASA GISS ModelE which is GO not GIGO since it includes stochastic forcing. i.e. uniform noise. To misquote Einstein, God does not play die. Since this submodel apparently originates with ECMRWF I expect it is in plenty of other GCMs.