Badenoch Bounce: Tories Leapfrog Reform in Latest Poll to Move Within a Point of Labour

The Conservatives have jumped three points in the latest poll following Kemi Badenoch’s conference tax pledges, leapfrogging Reform and coming within a point of Labour as Burnham sees his lead slip by three points. The Mail has more.

Kemi Badenoch looks to have secured a conference bounce, with the Tories leapfrogging Reform and closing on Labour.

The latest YouGov poll found the Conservatives have gained three points since the gathering in Birmingham, reaching 23% support.

That meant Nigel Farage’s party was pushed into third place on the firm’s voting intention tracker for the first time since 2024, at 21%.

Labour saw its backing drop three points to 24%, in a potential sign that the effects of Andy Burnham’s arrival are dissipating. 

Badenoch used her big speech last week to make a bold move on inheritance tax, pledging to exempt family homes altogether and give couples a £1 million allowance.

An Opinium poll at the weekend also suggested the Tories had scored a bounce, in a relief for strategists who had feared the leader’s improved personal ratings were not feeding through to a wider boost.

But the latest survey could cool fevered rumours at Westminster about the prospect of a snap General Election.

Burnham has denied he is considering an early ballot, but Badenoch’s aides were on alert during Labour conference in case he did trigger a contest. 

The Tories have been holding election meetings since July, with a draft manifesto and campaign ‘grid’ in place detailing the seats Badenoch will visit and public appearances she will make.

However, the split of support detected by YouGov would almost certainly produce a hung Parliament, with the shape of any Government incredibly hard to predict. 

Worth reading in full.