The upcoming Holborn and St Pancras by-election is a classic example of a betting opportunity where the smart thing to do is to bet against what you think is going to happen.
Sir Keir Starmer’s departure from British politics marked another – albeit unsurprising – U-turn; he had previously been crystal clear that he would remain in Parliament until the next general election.
It also presents Andy Burnham with a headache – the number of which look set to grow substantially in the coming weeks. In circumstances in which the new Prime Minister is still benefiting from a measurable, if modest, bounce, this by-election should be a comfortable Labour hold. The bookmakers think it will be – the governing party is generally available at 2/5.
That is surely the most likely outcome, but I’m going to bet against it. The odds of the Greens winning – they are around 2/1 or a smidgen longer – are understated. It also seems possible that this is the sort of seat in which something unpredictable and strange could occur when the voters go to the polls.
My belief that an ‘off the wall’ result might happen is partly grounded in the way the seat went in 2024. Sure, Starmer won with a comfortable majority of nearly 12,000 and secured an apparently healthy 48.9% of the vote. What was surprising, though, was that his vote total plummeted by over 17% – and this was on a night when he was still reasonably popular with the wider electorate and had led his party to a landslide election victory.
Usually, leaders get an uplift in vote share – certainly if they are in post as their party is on an upswing. Not so in Starmer’s case. A good chunk of the constituency voted for candidates measurably to the left of Labour: 10.4% for the Greens and a notable 18.9% for Andrew Feinstein, a “Gaza Independent”.
Feinstein has ruled himself out of the running, and the assumption must be that the overwhelming bulk of his vote will coalesce around the Greens. Feinstein has said he wishes to encourage unity amongst so-called “progressive forces” rather than splitting the vote, and I think we can assume that he isn’t seeking to assist Labour.
The prevailing assumption is that Zack Polanski will indeed be the Green candidate, although this is not yet a racing certainty. Surely, though, when a party leader indicates they wish to contest a seat, it would be very strange indeed – even by Green Party standards – to refuse his wish.
It seems clear to me that the Greens’ prospects of victory would be enhanced if they plumped for an unknown, vanilla candidate. Polanski’s personal ratings have tanked as more and more implausible stories and stark inconsistencies about his life have emerged. It must be a risk that the ‘stop Polanski’ bandwagon gathers more pace than the ‘kick Labour’ one.
Nevertheless, this surely represents Polanski’s best chance of entering Parliament this side of the general election and it is understandable that he is keen to take it. If he fails to win, it may bring his bizarre leadership of the Greens to a swift end, but he is probably right to risk everything on winning the seat.
If Polanski is the Green candidate, I’d give him about a 35% chance of winning. If it’s anyone else, maybe closer to 40%. Either way, the 2/1 – or 23/10 on the exchanges – seems rather tempting.
Amongst the mainstream parties, the Conservatives scored 7.2% last time, a whisker ahead of Reform’s 6.1% and the Liberal Democrats on 5.8%. Restore have also pledged to enter the race. It’s hard to see any of these parties mounting a challenge from such a low base to come anywhere close to winning the seat. Nevertheless, when it comes to who will win the battle of the also-rans, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the Tory odds – especially if they select Joanna Reeves, the former local party chairman who has the ability to appeal to voters tempted by Restore or Reform. If a strong left-wing independent enters the race, the Tory odds on winning the seat – you can get 1,000/1 on Betfair – is almost certainly a losing ticket but might just be worth a fiver.
A key unknown is the timing of the by-election – and this may end up being decisive. Labour will want to get it out of the way before the Budget on October 28th, but time is tight if they want to pull this off. This autumn’s financial statement is likely to be difficult for the Government and could well be disastrous. If the by-election falls in early November, it could well become a referendum on John Healey’s first Budget – and that surely adds to the prospects of a Labour defeat.
Once again, the likelihood is that Labour will win the by-election. They may even do so with some comfort. But the implied odds – on the exchanges – of them having a 70% chance of victory are simply too high. If they lose it will probably be to the Greens, but one can’t rule out a new candidate in the mould of Andrew Feinstein emerging and catching fire. There’s also a moonshot chance that we end up with a bizarre four-way split and someone wins, almost randomly, on barely 20% of the vote.
For all these reasons, the sensible bet is to simply place a wager on Labour failing to win. You’ll more than treble your money if that comes to pass. Don’t bet the ranch on it, but do consider gambling a tenner or two.
Mark Littlewood is a former Director of the Institute of Economic Affairs and the Director of PopCon.
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Any constituency that can vote for the Starmer creature is obviously going to go back to the bottom of the barrel to see what’s there.
I doubt if either the middle class virtue-signallers or the imported voters of Holborn and St Pancras will pass up the opportunity to vote for a Somalian to sit in the British Parliament.
DEI Rules.
A good opportunity for the anti-Labour vote to coalesce around a harmless joke candidate. Polanski – should he get the Green nomination – makes Count Binface look a grave and austere statesman.
It is Polanski’s big chance to pull in the far left votes, the student vote and the block ethnic vote and win the seat. If he cannot take Holborn & St Pancras then he has litte chance elsewhere.
It is emblematic of where we are that everybody recognises we are didastroysly badly governed by unpopular and mostly stupid people traitors to their own, but we can’t do anything about it intil the ridiculous loser in chief can’t put off an election any longer and had to go the people; and even if Reform were to win that election, looking increasingly unlikely, they are most unlikely to get down and dirty with spending tax net zero or immigration. Farage has lost his insurgent mojo and surrounded himself with tories.
England cannot survive another electoral cycle of the same old bull shit.
Dover and Portsmouth need to become Nationwide if we are to have any chance of saving this land where Jesus walked.
Vote Labour, Tory, Green, et al and prove how programmed and idiotic you are.
https://www.gbnews.com/politics/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-date-confirmed But read beyond the headline. A disunited constituency, perhaps? The potential alternative candidate appears to be an established local councillor, after all.
“This autumn’s financial statement is likely to be difficult for the Government and could well be disastrous”
This autumn’s financial statement is going to be difficult for the poor bloody people of this country and almost certainly will be disastrous
Corrected it
Chancellor Healey 1976 = Fiscal ruin + IMF.
Chancellor Healey 2026 = ……………….?
Same Old Labour – spend, spend, spend, tax, tax, tax, borrow, borrow, borrow.
Holborn and St Pancras is 55% white 45% non-white. 95,000-111,000 residents. Large student demographic. Low home ownership (24%) with a high reliance on renting. Seat metrics on electoral calculus and local constituency profile is all available. (good luck making sense of that lot). Eeny meeny miney mo springs to mind. I think that’s the conclusion Mark arrives at—-“A fiver or a tenner or two.”
Roll up, roll up, come out and chose the next irrelevant and completely inconsequential person to “represent” you in the rubber stamping assembly that acts as a masquerade of power, otherwise known as the British parliament.
Choose carefully as this is the person to whom you will direct your anger and frustration when nothing that you are promised is delivered and when things you’ve been promised won’t happen do.
If you are the sort of person who is given to trusting power hungry, random strangers, this whole voting lark is just for you.