The 2028 US Presidential Race is Already Under Way – Here Are the Odds Worth Backing

Elections may seem like they come around a bit too rapidly in the UK, but you may want to spare a thought for our American friends, who have to endure an endless and relentless cycle of campaigning. US politics doesn’t divide neatly into “electioneering” and “governing” in the way that British politics (sort of) does. The two run concurrently and permanently.

Once the US mid-terms are out of the way in just over two months’ time, attention will turn to the next Presidential election in November 2028. The first “exploratory committees” will be set up late this year or at the start of 2027. Voters in the early primary and caucus states will start to receive visits from potential candidates, often under the guise of a book tour.

This far out, almost anything can happen. Some may say that makes betting on the outcome a fool’s errand. Others – myself included – think that means it is potentially easier to find value somewhere in the market.

I believe there are currently very tempting odds available on one candidate from the Republican Party, who will be known to many Brits, and one candidate from the Democrats, who is currently unknown even to most Americans.

On the GOP side, the 8/1 (or slightly better on the exchanges) about Marco Rubio represents very solid value. This is hardly a brave or imaginative pick – indeed the US Secretary of State is the second favourite to secure the Republican nomination behind only J.D. Vance.

As Vice President, Vance is understandably the default to become the Republican candidate. Those who have served in the No 2 role have historically had considerable – indeed almost overwhelming – success in securing their party’s support when the incumbent POTUS is ineligible to run. They have, though, typically met with less success in winning the subsequent general election. (In 1988, George H.W. Bush bucked the trend by winning.)

The problem is that Vance’s odds are unappealing. You can barely get better than evens on him securing the top slot on the Republican ticket and no better than 4/1 on him becoming the 48th President.

I’d place the Vice President’s chances only a tick ahead of Marco Rubio’s, but your rate of return will be twice as high if you put your stake on the Cuban-American from Florida.

Rubio has successfully bridged the divide between the more establishment, old-school Republicans and the populist MAGA enthusiasts. His reach is therefore wide. His most pressing problem will be in making it deep. You need to quickly find a 20% base of support within your own party – those who would count themselves as hard-core fans, not merely casual admirers.

However, three things count in his favour. First, his base in Florida is valuable (assuming Governor Ron DeSantis doesn’t mount a more credible effort this time round). Second, unlike Vance, Rubio has had a tilt at securing the nomination before. This experience (from 2016) isn’t an ace of trumps, but it has genuine value.

Third, and perhaps most significantly of all, if the Republicans want to retain the surprisingly large bloc of Latino voters who flocked to Trump’s banner in 2024 but have shown a tendency to drift away since, it would make sense for the GOP to lean into a Hispanic candidate. I wouldn’t expect the prospect of a first Hispanic President to generate quite the same level of froth and excitement that accompanied Obama’s election in 2008 or the prospect of a first female President in 2016 or 2024, but in raw electoral terms it could actually be much more significant.

The 8.8/1 available on Betfair Exchange that Rubio becomes the next President is too tempting to ignore – as is the 4.4/1 that he locks up his party’s nomination.

The Democratic race is much more open. Gavin Newsom, former California Governor, Left-wing firebrand Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Georgian Senator John Ossoff are all around 9/2 to be top of their party’s ticket. In such a wide and unpredictable field, these odds are too short to represent value. This is especially the case given how difficult it is to predict whether the Democrats will continue their tilt to the Left or shift sharply back to the Centre in a serious effort to win back the White House.

I would need spectacularly long odds to put down any cash on the Democrats’ contest. But I think I have found them.

Arizona Senator Mark Kelly has the CV to emerge as an appealing proposition in the event that the world’s oldest political party decides to pitch its tent somewhere close to the median voter. He is a retired US Navy captain, aviator and pilot who undertook combat missions in Operation Desert Storm, and went on to become an astronaut, flying several Space Shuttle missions to the International Space Station. His electoral success in Arizona is good evidence that he can flip a swing state away from the GOP. He sits on the moderate wing of the party and could benefit from South Carolina currently being slated as the opener on the Democratic primary calendar.

Of course, Kelly is one of many talked-about candidates who may not get off the starting blocks. He would need to mimic Obama’s insurgent campaign in 2008 to stand a serious chance – by which I mean landing a couple of hugely impressive speeches to start to emerge as a truly national figure. It could well be that he ends up a dud.

However, the 32/1 available on him securing his party’s nomination and the 55/1 on him winning the White House are truly delicious odds.

The permutations and combinations in US politics between now and November 2028 are so numerous as to be almost infinite.

However, I think the chance of the next Presidential election being contested between Rubio and Kelly is a reasonable one. And even if I am only half right, I will still make a very handsome profit.

Mark Littlewood is a former director of the Institute of Economic Affairs and the Director of PopCon.