For more than a decade, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published annual reports detailing excess winter mortality in England & Wales. In other words, how many more people had died in winter on average, compared to the rest of the year.
More explicitly:
Or at least they did until 2022, when their final report was published, which told us that excess winter deaths in 2021/22 had amounted to 13,400.
After that, the publications ceased, ostensibly with no explanation whatsoever. It took a Freedom of Information request to elicit the reason:
Thank you for your request.
Previously published annual data on excess winter mortality from 1950 to 2022 are available in our Winter mortality in England and Wales Statistical bulletins, using the excess winter deaths (EWD) and excess winter mortality index (EWMI) measures. However, this release was discontinued following the consultation that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) ran with the Department for Health and Social Care (including the Office for Health Improvements and Disparities), NHS Business Services Authority (NHSBSA), UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and NHS England. This was because of limitations with the methodology used to produce these measures.
The UKHSA published a Cold mortality monitoring report, England: winter 2024 to 2025 annual report on 18th February 2026 at 9:30am. This report provides the first national estimates of mortality associated with low temperatures during cold weather episodes in England over the winter season. These results are intended to inform public health preparedness and support action
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It would seem the government’s cure for all of society’s ills is not to tell us how bad it can be. “Ignorance is bliss” is their maxim.
The government lying?? How unusual – NOT!
They’ve got to hide the evidence that the massive increase in the cost of energy – caused by Net Zero and the Subsidy Junkies – is responsible for an increase in winter deaths.
And it’s so convenient for the Establishment. Every time an elderly pensioner dies of the cold, their pension ceases. Win win as far as the Treasury is concerned.
I believe ONS implemented and published a modification to the Winter excess death calculation when they realised that the Winter 2019/20 ‘excess’ would be zero or negative because of the April-July 2020 mortality rate being unusually high. A straightforward continuation of the method would have been interesting but was clearly not to be permitted.
One point perhaps worth mentioning: Excess Winter death counts have clearly declined since the 1950s despite the size of the population increasing, especially the elderly population. Is this because of more plentiful energy for keeping people warm or perhaps warmer Winters due to climate change? Any chance of admitting that warmer is actually better?
Found it:
Didn’t the ONS stop publishing the vaxed versus unvaxed covid death stats, once the former overtook the latter?
Let not an inconvenient number afflict thee. Just cast it out.
Yes, you are correct. I have the data, going to late 2023. It does not paint a very good picture, in short it fails to show that vaccination saved lives. They thus stopped releasing the data. Excess deaths the same, they now publish ‘expected deaths’, which means that the ONS is now in the business of forecasting, and saying – hey deaths totalled X in week Y, but we expected deaths to be much larger (X + 10%), so all is well.
My old statistician friend used to say – if HMG offers you a forecast, run a mile. If HMG manipulates data, run a mile.
I have no doubt the ONS was as keen to distort the data as were the politicians. Besides, their bonuses depend upon helping with the false narrative.
Limitations in methodology, perhaps. But the same methodology every year for years at a stretch shows information about trends. Change the methodology and the trends vanish for several years. Handy, that.
It did exactly the same thing with data on excess deaths for heart failure, cancer etc.
The Dept for Health Improvement & Disparities, used to report excess deaths, sliced & diced. They then changed the method of calculation. The new calculation was over a page long. Miraculously, excess deaths disappeared.
They altered the base line for the period after covid boosters started. The ONS is as bent the rest of government.
I find it really sad that it is now impossible to trust any government department or government or other “ official “ statistics. Many years ago, my HMRC – employed sister used to teach a course, after which she gave out Darrell Huff’s book, “ How to Lie with Statistics, so I suspect the lies have been going on for far longer that I had hitherto realised.
The scaremongering about heat cannot function so well if people realise many more people die of cold. So they stop reporting it.
An excellent article; thanks. This is proper journalism, should be front page in he national press.
If you hold your breath waiting for that you will become a summer casualty – don’t do it!
Yes, excellent. Hear, hear!