Can Anyone or Anything Stop Andy Burnham Now?

Political Betting is a new weekly column by Mark Littlewood aimed at people who like gambling on politics.

If the opinion polls and the betting markets are right, Andy Burnham will be a Member of Parliament once again by the end of next week and be Prime Minister not long afterwards.

I rather fancied Reform UK at the start of the Makerfield by-election campaign. Even though I pegged the insurgents as very slight underdogs, the 3/1 seemed attractive. If you still think local plumber Rob Kenyon can pull off a surprise victory next Thursday, you can find odds of 5/1 or 6/1 today.

Trusted polling has been thin on the ground but the latest data suggest Burnham has extended his lead over Reform to 10%. The self-styled King of the North isn’t home and hosed, but he appears to have breathing space.

If he does get returned to Westminster, the commentariat seem largely agreed about what happens next. He will swiftly trigger a leadership election (if another Labour pretender to the crown has not already done so) and will triumph with ease amongst the party’s membership. He is so far ahead of the other challengers that we may even see a coronation rather than a contest. A pathway to the premiership which seemed very difficult to navigate – or even contemplate – a couple of months ago now looks like a cakewalk.

So, is there anything left that can derail Burnham’s path to No. 10 or should you snap up the 2/5 that you can still find with some bookmakers that he will be the next Prime Minister?

On the face of it, Makerfield would be a very comfortable pickup for Reform in any remotely normal by-election. But this is about the most abnormal by-election that one could imagine and three forces have combined to make this a far trickier task for Farage’s party than it would have wished for.

First, its highly effective approach of treating the May 7th elections as a referendum on Starmer paid off handsomely. Now, however, the typical Makerfield voter with a burning desire to see the PM removed from office may well conclude that the best way of achieving this is to vote for Andy Burnham. ‘Vote Labour to defenestrate our party’s leader’ is an odd clarion call – and it obviously doesn’t appear on official campaign material. However, it is the not-so-subtle subliminal message that the Burnham campaign has been keen to project.

Second, Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain is putting in a sizable effort in its first Parliamentary election. It could well hold its deposit (5% of the vote being required to do so) and could perhaps do a few points better than this. It is entirely conceivable that its vote tally will be greater than Burnham’s lead over Kenyon. But that’s a rather binary way of looking at things. A serious effort from Restore has meant that Reform has had to fight on two flanks rather than concentrate all its fire on Labour – just because the final impact of such a diversion is hard to measure doesn’t mean it’s not real.

Third, Rob Kenyon comes across as a very decent, down-to-earth sort of chap. But this is obviously his first time under such an intense political spotlight. Had he not been up against Burnham, he would not have been thrown into the deep end of Question Time specials and the like. Instead, he could have taken a slower and steadier approach to building up both his media skills and his policy knowledge – but the circumstances of the contest have not allowed it.

I’ve therefore concluded that my 3/1 bet on Reform is likely to be a losing one. There’s still a chance it could pull off a narrow victory if it is able to seriously squeeze the Restore vote and if its GOTV (Get Out the Vote) operation is sensational on the day. It may benefit from higher levels of voter enthusiasm than Labour has and so find it easier to get its supporters from the sofa to the polling booth. So, Reform could still nick it but is now clearly the underdog.

If Burnham is successful, a leadership election is effectively a certainty. There may be some issues around the timing – as well as the ‘optics’ of any announcement. All the candidates wanting to succeed Starmer have been hoping someone else can take the rap for triggering the contest and they can then display some faux reluctance as they enter it. Maybe Wes Streeting is the stalking horse – but Burnham’s name is certain to go forward.

I suspect Keir Starmer’s insistence that he will fight any leadership contest will melt away. He has now already run out of any truly dignified way of leaving Downing Street but defeat in an internal party election really would be about the most humiliating way possible to be dispatched. Polls of Labour members indicate that Starmer does command some remaining loyalty but he would still face a likely defeat at the hands of Andy Burnham. If and when Cabinet Ministers depart and flock to the challenger’s banner, the odds will tilt still more against the survival prospects of the current Prime Minister.

It’s also worth noting that if you can imagine some way in which Starmer survives for another year – or even longer – the bet on Burnham isn’t invalid, the betting slip is still in play. This is why I think a bet on Burnham being the next Labour leader is preferable to the next PM market. I calculate there is a thin possibility that Starmer limps all the way to 2029 and the next party leader takes over in Opposition. That is hard to see at present but you may as well include it within your bet by explicitly selecting the ‘leader’ rather than ‘Prime Minister’ market.

I feel Burnham can be sure that Labour is ready and willing to support his pitch for the top job. Although I rarely take odds-on bets, I can’t resist the 2/5 available. The only thing that stands in his way is a plucky and determined plumber from Wigan.

Mark Littlewood is a former director of the Institute of Economic Affairs and the Director of PopCon.