The latest edition of the Spectator carries a piece by Oliver Basciano entitled “Brace yourself for a coup in Brazil“. Basciano speculates that due to President Bolsonaro’s myriad failings, prominent among them his alleged failure to protect the Brazilian population from Covid (he was sceptical about lockdowns and the need for vaccines for those with natural immunity and about their safety), he will launch a coup rather than await the verdict of the online voting machines – which look set to deliver a victory to convicted fraudster, ex-President and darling of the Left, Lula Da Silva.
To back up his claim about Bolsonaro’s “disastrous handling of the pandemic” Basciano states that “some 685,000 Brazilians died”.
Brazil’s a big country with a population of about 220 million. I’m always worried when someone puts in a big number with no context. Is 685,000 deaths a lot? It sounds a lot. But how does Brazil’s pandemic performance compare with some of the poster boys and girls of the Covid A team?
Let’s just contrast Bolsonaro’s “disastrous” handling of the pandemic with that of Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand. You know Jacinda Ardern, she’s the ‘caring woman’, the pin-up girl of Covid zealots the world over.
Well, strangely, the cumulative rate of infections, virtually all of which occurred after she’d coerced persuaded 90% of the population to get vaccinated multiple times, is over twice the rate of the infections to date in Brazil. Yet, Bolsonaro’s performance was “disastrous” and Ardern’s was virtuous?
“Oh, but those are just cases,” says a passing Covidian. “It’s not cases that matter, it’s deaths. And don’t compare to New Zealand, compare the fatality rate in Brazil to that within the EU. We all know that Bolsonaro is a murderer for leaving his country unprotected by vaccination while the EU rolled out vaccinations to nearly all of their citizens.” Okay, here’s the comparison: Covid deaths in 2020 up to September 20th compared to deaths in 2022 up to September 20th.
Well, that’s an odd thing. In the first nine months of 2020, the number of Covid deaths was almost the same in Brazil and the EU, though as the population of Brazil is lower than the EU the rate of fatalities was admittedly lower in the EU (322 per million vs 643). However, in 2022 the virtuous, caring, sharing, empathising EU leadership have seen Covid deaths increase by 60% over the 2020 figure to a whopping 231,330 deaths, this in spite of having vaccinated most of the deceased. Isn’t that incredible! This year, as Biden tells us it’s all over, we’ve seen 60% more Covid deaths in the EU than we did in 2020 when the first Covid wave broke over an immune naïve population. Meanwhile, that monster Bolsonaro, with his disastrous handling of the pandemic has seen deaths fall by 52% against the 2020 number. If Bolsonaro’s performance had been comparable to the EU’s, 158,000 additional Brazilians would have died this year. Bolsonaro’s supporters could be forgiven for being grateful that it’s Bolsonaro not von der Leyen calling the shots.
Basciano’s Spectator piece goes on to state: “A senate inquiry into his failure to buy vaccines, in a country with almost no anti-vax movement, recommended criminal charges against him.”
I’m not sure what the relevance of the statement “with almost no anti-vax movement” is, but leaving that aside, let’s just test this claim. Another surprise! That awful Covid sceptic Bolsonaro has actually managed to inject more vaccines into more arms in Brazil than von der Leyen has throughout the EU.
I hold no brief for Bolsonaro, but clearly with the sidelining of Trump he is now number one in the firing line, being demonised for not kowtowing to the globalist narrative. The claims about how he disastrously mismanaged the Covid pandemic are just lazy tropes. But worse is that the author, and so many others, appear to believe that the course of a pandemic is within the control of a Government. In reality, I lay no more blame on von der Leyen for her lamentable record across the EU than I do on Bolsonaro for his performance in Brazil or Ardern in New Zealand, at least in terms of the number of ‘cases’ and deaths (the lockdowns and other coercive measures are another matter). Indeed, to make this point, let’s compare the reported infection rate in Brazil with that of South Korea and Japan.
In both South Korea and Japan, mask-wearing has been widespread for years. Both countries have advanced health facilities and health systems. The Japanese and South Korean populations are remarkably compliant with government guidelines. They bow rather than shake hands. They tend to have relatively low BMI measures. They are, in a sense, everything Brazil is not. And yet, South Korea’s cumulative reported infection rate is almost three times that of Brazil and Japan has just overtaken bad-boy Brazil in cumulative infections. The odd thing is no one’s claiming that the performance of Japan and South Korea has been ‘disastrous’. No one’s recommending that their leaders stand trial for criminal negligence.
Questions have been raised about definitions used in defining Covid deaths, hospitalisations and infections. One thing there’s less ambiguity about is all-cause mortality. Consequently, excess deaths are relatively straightforward to define and perhaps the best benchmark for how the pandemic impacted a country. If we look at all-cause mortality for a number of South and Central American states the relative performance of Brazil looks pretty good against its regional neighbours.
Was Peru’s particularly hard lockdown the cause of additional all-cause deaths? Maybe, maybe not. Were Bolsanaro’s policies responsible for Brazil’s relatively favourable regional outcome? Again, maybe, maybe not. From the evidence it’s perfectly apparent that we delude ourselves if we attribute Covid deaths to particular government policies. Governments and leaders are responsible for many things, but the reality is they can’t do much against airborne viruses.
Many commentators have claimed that South Americans are particularly susceptible to Covid. The highest death rates have tended to be in South American countries. This may be down to social factors, lack of pre-exposure or it may be genetic. Whatever the cause, the evidence from its neighbours shows that Brazil always faced an uphill task in protecting its population from the ravages of Covid. Couple that with the widespread poverty in the country and the hand to mouth existence of many and realistically, the options faced by Bolsonaro were fairly limited. From our current vantage point, two and a half years down the track, it looks like he played his hand pretty well.
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Man of the ppl, Dr professor vice chancellor king of the world Chris Packham, the worlds greatest scientist!
Jeez Louise, seriously, an article about Chris Packham’s choice of hat?!
If I had a pub I’d call it The Cock and Bull, and there’d naturally be a picture of a cockerel and a bull outside.
Am I the only one homing in on the fantastically named The Pecker and Bush pub?
It goes without saying that if I owned a launderette I’d call it ‘Sit&Spin’. Rude not to.
In fairness any chance to mock the man who sees himself as the heir to Attenbore has to be taken with glee. Of course the fact that this jumped up trouble causer is wearing a £500 piece of headgear only confirms that for his childish mumblings the
BBCtaxpayers are paying ridiculous money.Well personally, I can hardly wait for the next riveting installment about which aftershave Chris favours and how much it sets him back. I’d be quite intrigued to know what his skin care routine involves as well, seeing as he looks nowhere near his age. You bring the wine and I’ll bring the snacks.
It’s just unusual to see an article about Mr Packham that has the comments section open for business, to be honest. Or is it just anything that Toby writes about him where we’re not allowed to comment…?
Apologies if there are alcohol-free beer enthusiasts among our number but I am suspicious of people who drink it
Revolting stuff.
Friday night is gallon night.
I just don’t see the point
Every night is vino night chez ToF, though as I’ve said before I am
also partial to locally brewed golden
ale.
Completely off topic now there is a beach wedding going on in front of us and not only is there an army of professional photographers and cameramen provided by the resort but most of the guests are sitting there filming instead of paying attention. I find people weird!
It’s the same at concerts. An artist you have paid a fortune to see, and they are playing all your favourites, yet you are distracted by the numpties holding up their phones recording it all. Why don’t they just enjoy the experience? Do they ever actually watch what they’ve filmed? I always think they are missing out.
One of the last concerts I went to before I got too grumpy was Ben Harper. You’d think his audience would be fairly reverential but I ended up having a row with people around me who kept chatting.
I did traumatise my tastebuds by trying an alcohol-free Becks when I was pregnant and it was so vile it was grapefruit and soda from that day forth. One of the things I don’t understand about alcohol-free drinks is that they’re the same price as the real stuff. Over here it’s 17 euros for a bottle of Gordon’s gin, but it’s also 17 euros for a bottle of sugary water with flavourings that has ‘Gordon’s’ on the label. Who in their right mind is going to buy this alcohol-free version for that money when they can just buy the tonic ( or mixer of choice ) for a tiny fraction of the price and just make do with that on it’s own? It’s mental, right? A glass of lemonade would be a few cents in comparison, stick some ice and a slice in it, there’s your alcohol-free beverage! People are strange.
Anyway, I’ve never liked gin because it tastes like old ladies’ perfume, as does tonic actually.
Alcohol-free “spirits” are plain weird if you ask me. At least alcohol-free beer hydrates you.
The hat still has its security tag affixed.
He must have stolen it.
On the salary he gets from the BBC he can afford it.
Anyone who drinks an alcohol-free beer whilst wearing a stupid hat that cost £520 from Prada (but about £5.20 at Primark) is a colossal plonker.
Perhaps it’s the Primark version.
Alcohol free beer has a nasty ‘dry’ taste, its the only way I can describe it. Drinking fake alcohol is like vegans eating fake meat. Why bother, when there are tasty alternatives available, if that’s your thing.
I think it lacks taste. In fact, it’s a bit like drinking decaf coffee or tea. To me they just taste like hot water. As if somebody poured some water from the boiled kettle and went, ”There’s your coffee/tea” and you’re meant to close your eyes and imagine you’re drinking an Americano/Rington’s brew. Tastes of nothing. I’m harking back to when I was preggers though, a dim and distant memory now, as I stay well away from that sort of kack these days, of course.
Same with skimmed milk – it’s just water with a smidgen of milk added – but people kid themselves they are drinking milk. Someone’s making a profit!
He probably thought it said Pravda.
Is Truth his thing though?
Biggest take from this is How TLF-ck can a Bush Hat be £520 !!
The cost of his nylon (i.e. fossil fuel based hat) is notable.
But just remember that his hat size is certainly greater than his IQ score.
Shows how stupid he really is: £500 plus for a hat = T*at.